Alconbury

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Everything posted by Alconbury

  1. To be fair though, who wasn’t? Especially after what was being said about him in Hard Knocks. One of the easiest potential breakouts and draft values to sniff up with that media exposure.
  2. Man, you are still missing the whole essence of the strategy. We are still talking about two separate things. Hopefully most other readers get it, but I will give it one final try explaining. Obviously Cook and someone else than Mattison would have been a better choice, in hindsight. That's not what I'm arguing about. Imagine if Cook were to go down early, the idea would then be Mattison picking up the slack and get you the points that Giants average to opposing backfields. It doesn't matter if Cook gets 23.7 and Mattison 0, Cook gets 11.85 and Mattison 11.85 or Cook goes down right away, gets 0 and Mattison 23.7. Or anything in between those three scenarios. In any case you'd get 23.7 from two players, going by what NYG give up to backfields. 23.7 from two players combined, means 23.7/2 = 11.85 average per player. 11.85 is RB2 numbers. Doesn't have to be both getting RB2 numbers, but their two scores add up to two RB2 numbers. That's the whole idea. - If you start Cook and and an average RB2 (say Michel, Howard, Freeman or White) from another team, worst case scenario is Cook goes down early and you get close to 0 points and RB2 numbers from Michel/Howard/Freeman/White. 0 + RB2 = ONE RB2 worst case scenario. - If you start Cook and Mattison, worst case scenario Cook goes down early, but since Mattison steps in and the idea is Giants give up 23.7 points that game. 0 points from Cook, 23.7 points from Mattison. 23.7 = TWO RB2 worst case scenario. This is a smart strategy in some situations going into a game if the starter's (Cook, David Johnson or whoever) status is uncertain. It's about minimizing risk by raising your floor, at the expense of lowering your ceiling. If you don't get it by now, I'll just have to wish you a good day.
  3. Ah, it's clear to me now you didn't understand what I originally meant. I meant what NYG was giving up to backfields coming into week 7, which was 23.7 half-PPR points per game, if you divide that out over two players (23.7/2 = 11.85 per player). 11.85 is RB2 numbers. I didn't mean gamble on (this I agree was a big gamble) Edmonds actually reaching 11.85, but betting on DJ+Edmonds reaching 23.7. See the difference? It had nothing to do with Edmonds role vs DJ. It's just a strategy of playing a whole backfield vs a poor opponent, if the starter's status is uncertain. Playing both, not just one of them.
  4. Three rushing TD's and the 34.2/2 points each were way more than the strategy statistically and theoretically suggested coming into the game (23.7/2), so having that as an argument against it doesn't make sense. That success was not expected by anyone, not even his mom. And well, now we are just looking at small nuances in predicting how the game and game script would unfold. In which we are not in agreement anyway. I guess I have a more statistically-driven approach and you a more perceptual approach; broader stats vs "they were eviscerated in the passing game" etc. Gamescript differences which imo wasn't going to result in a massive deviation from the mean in terms of RB fantasy points given up anyway. The strategy applied to the games vs Tampa, Buffalo and Minnesota for example would still have yielded two players with RB2 numbers in all of them, even though you felt they were winning through the air. The "smart" in using the strategy is trading away the risk of the starter of uncertain status being forced out of the game due to re-injury and instead bet on the whole backfield and settle with, theoretically, RB2 numbers for two of your players. And yes, I did state it depends on situation and other options. As I compared, Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White all average less points than what "backfields vs NYG, divided up between two backs" do. It's risk-averse and low upside, absolutely. The upside was way higher starting DJ and one of those names obviously. But statistically, if the injury really turns out to be a problem, you end up one goose egg and one RB2. Starting the backfield; worst case is two RB2's. This is process-driven if anything.
  5. Kingsbury's Friday comments of that he would not have played if the game was played that day, that's alarming and set this week apart from last week imo. But yes, situation looked exactly the same as last week for those who missed that comment. Hemorrhaging pass yards or not, they were statistically still a worse rush defense than a pass defense. Daniel Jones looking competent or not, they were still a bottom-10 offense coming in and worse than Cardinals both in points and yards per game. Nothing suggesting it would be a lopsided game forcing Cardinals to abandon the run which you are suggesting. But yeah, it's all dependent on your situation. I'm quite risk-averse too. I know it feels uncomfortable rolling out two from the same backfield, but when it's backed up statistically I tend to use it. 23.7/2 half-PPR points is more than what RB2's in the likes of Michel, Breida, Freeman, Howard and White average per game, for example. Pending Gurley's health reports, a Gurley/Henderson stack this upcoming week vs Bengals (league-worst vs backfields) is another example where this strategy might be an idea. Especially with Brown not available just like a third back in Cardinals (Foster) was not available week 7.
  6. In hindsight of course not. But due to the unknowns surrounding DJ coming into the game, with Kingsbury saying Friday that he wouldn't have played if the game was that day, there were legitimate concerns about how big role he would have (even though the lopsided distribution it ended up being I don't think anyone foresaw). Starting both vs a bottom-barrel defense vs RB (averaging 23.7 half-ppr points per game to backfields) was definitely the safe and smart move going into the game. Eliminating the risk, setting up for, in theory, a respectable 23.7/2 points (RB2 numbers) for two of your starters. I don't have any shares of this backfield, but I have used this strategy before when there's been injury concerns with a starter. There's obviously situations in tough matchups where you need to shoot for upside, of course. But in general, "guaranteed" RB2 numbers for two starters definitely won't ruin your week and more often than not it's enough to put you in a position to win.
  7. Hilarious! I don't own any shares of the backfield so perhaps mostly because I don't think very highly (to put it kindly) of Matthew Berry, neither in terms of entertainment value or as a so called fantasy "expert". Ironically, this meltdown is probably the best he ever put out. But it's pretty damn entertaining, I give him that!
  8. Well, you typically need up towards 16-20 points in half-PPR to crack WR1 any given week, and he has put up that twice this year already. He was the WR17 week 1 with his 19.3 points and WR11 week 5 with 20.8. Now facing a clear pass-funnel defense in the Eagles, giving up the 4th most receiving yards (280 per game) and the 4th least rushing yards (73 per game) in the league. Cooper and both stud tackles Smith and Collins expected to play. DAL-PHI 3rd highest implied points total (49) this week. WR1 certainly possible, even (I’d say especially) with Cooper back.
  9. Haven’t monitored their every run but I think it’s safe to say McCoy as a borderline hall of famer has a way better feel for how to maneuver, take the right angles, set up blocks etc. In short, how to play running back. I’d say it’s that simple.
  10. God I love this guy. Rare talent, absolute stud. But humble about it and just goes about his business. Nothing I respect more than that combination. No cockiness or showing off. Simply jumps right back up and runs over to the huddle for the next play. Easily in the conversation of top three backs in the league in terms of pure running.
  11. To be fair, Pocic has missed the last four games already. Fluker injured his hamstring early vs Rams so Jamarco Jones played almost the whole game, and did well. So the only thing different than vs Rams is if LT Brown won’t go (both him and Fluker listed as Doubtful btw, not OUT yet). Apparently he’s had the bicep issue since week 3 but managed to toughen it out so far. So, sure, not good if LT Brown does not make it. But the o-line situation isn’t as dramatically changed compared to last week as the above quote suggests. Either way, if you have Carson he’s likely not lower than your RB2 in most cases which means there’s room for both with one in FLEX. 49ers defense is ranked 1st vs RBs in fantasy and their offense is firing on all cylinders. Not an optimal scenario for Malcolm Brown especially with talks about Henderson having a role. He’s definitely a start but I’m hesitant putting him above RB15.
  12. Jay Jay Get your a s s up and hurrah, uh! Jay train baby Nineteen baby He’s on the grind baby All the time baby Show us something
  13. They both have yards after the catch as a strength to their game but imo Deebo is better at it. Deebo is 4th best WR in the NFL with his 9.3 yards after catch per reception thus far. Pettis had 7.3 last year. They do it in different ways though. Deebo is the physical freight train running back type, punishing defenders along with great speed. Pettis is the fluid finesse guy making defenders look silly with jukes. Who's more likely to have a breakout fantasy day? I actually think they both have a good chance to come out greatly improved from their BYE tonight to surprise many. But really a crapshoot in terms of fantasy imo and most likely they will just cancel each other out in hanging that 20. Also, 49ers is a running team this year and Kittle should still be the focal point in the passing game. If anyone though? My hunch is Deebo. Very intrigued by what I have seen and the small signs Shanahan has shown starting to scheme him the ball in yac situations.
  14. Yikes, clicking on the link in your post, it does seem you are paying for it.
  15. Haha love it, convenient to change it up when everything you were talking about pregame was it’s gonna be Bouye on Samuel. It wasn’t. He was RCB as usual, on Moore’s most common side. Which was suggested by everyone else here apart from you. I hope you are not paying for that Playerprofiler ”premium” content... Either way, the remaining slice of pie after McCaffrey in this offense, at least with Kyle Allen in, just isn’t big enough for any reliable production. Moore’s day was not particularly spectacular either apart from that beautiful 52-yard grab leaping over Bouye.
  16. Some so called "experts" are suggesting Bouye on Samuel and some are suggesting Bouye on Moore. I don't think you should put as much faith in experts in general and Playerprofiler in particular as you seem to be doing. I think it's likely Jaguars keep playing each CB to a set side just like vs Titans who similarly to Panthers does not have one obvious stud focal point wide receiver. In other words Bouye in his usual right CB role. DJ Moore has lined up to that side 59.1% of the snaps this year. Samuel has lined up to Bouye's side only 17.4% of the snaps. Also a good chance Jaguars play zone again anyway, to put a spy on McCaffery. He's the obvious threat you want to slow down as a defensive coordinator vs Panthers. Especially with Cam out. In other words, again, speaking for each CB to his side.
  17. Damien was highly ineffective week 1 and 2 before going down. That gets lost in the shuffle. And it's been discussed back and forth for over six months in the Damien thread already, but we have seen similar scenarios before with incredible season finishes by an unproven running back, also crushing advanced metrics numbers. Alex Collins, Dion Lewis... remember how excellent Thomas Rawls was Nov-Dec 2015? These guys also did crush box scores and advanced metrics alike the year before. I agree a 3-way timeshare isn't too exciting. But there really is a non-zero chance Darrel has jumped Damien. If your roster allows it, I strongly suggest rostering him over this weekend to see how it shakes out, or at least wait for clarity through comments from Reid or Bienemy leading up to the game. This is not even taking into account the probability of more injuries to McCoy and Damien. Nursing injury all camp very often shows up in a player's ability to stay healthy (and effective) for the remainder of the season. An offseason and camp of building up instead of rehabbing is vastly underrated and overlooked every single year in FF.
  18. I just posted this over in the Damien thread. Quite relevant in here as well.
  19. Took a look at some advanced metrics for this backfield over at Footballoutsiders to perhaps shed some light on the situation. Some believe in advanced metrics, some don't, take it for what i's worth but it sure has helped my decision making in FF numerous times over the years. DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. Rushing DVOA (%) McCoy 14.5% (RB8) - 40 rushes Darrel -9.3% (no rank) - 17 rushes Damien -33.7% (no rank) - 22 rushes Neither Darrel or Damien gets a rank here due to below 32 rush attempts. But for comparison, in the list of 32+ attempt rushers, -9.3% would land at RB24 and -33.7% at RB37. Receiving DVOA (%) Darrel 38.2% (RB4) - 9 targets McCoy 13.5% (RB14) - 12 targets Damien 6.9% (RB17) - 11 targets McCoy has been by far the most effective on the ground. Metrics confirming what everyone also has seen pretty much, his role is likely the only certainty here, barring health. After that, Darrel's presence should not be underestimated. Neither Williams has been particularly effective on the ground, but especially Darrel's performance in the passing game stands out, and has surprised. Possibly also the Chiefs. Worth to mention however, even though it was last year and things change, Damien had a 26.4% DVOA over 50 rushes and 33.9% over 24 targets during his hot finish 2018. Top marks if it would have been over a bigger sample. Preseason injury still nagging or something else, but he wasn't the same before going down. Huge week for the Williams.
  20. Davante, Godwin and McLaurin in my big money league as well.. 🤦🏻‍♂️ And yes, trotting him out Sunday when it happened Thursday even if it’s ’only’ a minor tweak is extremely risky business. Not just for fantasy managers but Redskins staff as well. The Trent Williams saga has me slightly nervous about that medical staff not holding McLaurin back even if he’d ’feel’ ok this weekend.
  21. I don’t think you saw what he did there by saying I saw what you did there
  22. To be fair though, 0.85*0.409 = 0.34765 which means running routes on 34.8% of the teams' snaps thus far in 2019 while he ran routes on 0.61*0.601 = 0.36661 => 36.7% of the teams' snaps in 2018. Hardly any difference in terms of net opportunity. That tweet is a prime example of twisting stats to fit narrative (or Thorman simply not understanding). Running 3.6 fewer routes per game is also a direct result of the Bucs so far averaging less plays per game compared to 2018, thus quite irrelevant in terms of his role in the offense. I mean, I bet every single Bucs player has less routes per game so far compared to the 2018 average. Last week he had 5 targets in 36 attempts which means 13.9% target share. He averaged 11.7% target share in 2018, and it did include duds, albeit never a complete 0 but he did have two 2 target games. He is a volatile player. All this panic after only two (!) weeks is quite entertaining, but the conclusions are misguided. I get it, everyone clearly had too high expectations and a donut is always frustrating. But if you sort out the noise in the tweet above it shows his net opportunities per game thus far really isn't much different compared to 2018. Straight out dropping at this point is premature and I'd happily pick him up if available for free in any of my leagues.
  23. Pretty damn good imo. I was entertaining this idea in preseason already, especially after Arians 100+ reception comment, and nothing I have seen thus far these two weeks have made me feel less strongly about it. The situation is kind of reminiscent of Juju/Brown last year, with the more established star attracting the defense on the outside helping the other star with a less household name feast all over the field versus lesser coverage. However; Evans was clearly playing through an illness in week 1. Could very well have affected him last night as well, but was way more apparent last week. He will play better and probably start soaking up more targets again going forward. BUT, Chris Godwin is just really, really good and Evans playing better might just as well mean more sustained drives and an overall better offense thus possibly even better production from Godwin rather than less. It's not like the Bucs maxed out their offense already... Due to his role closer to the line of scrimmage he is also way less affected by Jameis meltdowns like the one we saw in week 1.
  24. Did a little crunching to put some numbers on the situation as well. Always helps putting it in perspective even if it's never the end-all. Team alpha receivers usually max out around the 30% target share mark. Hopkins had 32% last year, Julio 28%, Corey Davis 30%, Davante 29% and so on. ARob had 23% with Trubisky last year in first season coming back from ACL tear. We already discussed he looks like a way better player this year so a few steps up towards the 30% mark should absolutely not be a surprise given his ability. Especially considering all the praise throughout summer and Trubisky's words during camp that if ARob is one-on-one, the ball is going to him. Week 1 vs Packers he was right around these numbers; 29% or 31% depending on if 13 or 14 targets, I've seen both numbers thrown around. This target share is not strange at all. What we obviously won't see continuing is Trubisky chucking it 45 times per game. He averaged 32 last year and really should be held around this if the Bears want any success as a team. Worth noting though is the Bears do seem to have a harder schedule this year so might not be able to have their defense bail them out as much as last year. Trubisky forced into a slight uptick in attempts wouldn't surprise me, but let's stick to 32 for now. ARob had a 59% catch rate and 13.7 yards per catch last year. I'm expecting it to climb simply considering how much better he looks, but just to play it safe I'm using these numbers as well. Some outcomes depending on target shares below (Trubisky 32 attempts per game, ARob 59% catch rate, 13.7 ypc): Target share - Targets per game - Receptions per game - Yards per game - Total yards 25% - 8.00 - 4.72 - 65 - 1035 yards 26% - 8.32 - 4.91 - 67 - 1076 yards 27% - 8.64 - 5.10 - 70 - 1117 yards 28% - 8.96 - 5.29 - 72 - 1159 yards 29% - 9.28 - 5.48 - 75 - 1200 yards 30% - 9.60 - 5.67 - 78 - 1242 yards 31% - 9.92 - 5.85 - 80 - 1283 yards 32% - 10.24 - 6.04 - 83 - 1324 yards Hopefully this sums it up pretty well why I think the WR2 floor is rather safe. Remember, except for the expected uptick in target share these are all 2018 parameters, not taking into account growth for either Trubisky or ARob or the likely scenario Bears defense not being as dominant in 2019.
  25. Yeah, the Bears oline got mangled. As per PFF, Trubisky was under pressure 39.6% of his dropbacks. He only faced that amount of pressure in ONE game last year. For the whole 2018 season he had the ninth lowest pressure rate at 28.2% of dropbacks. His 39.6% from last night would have landed second highest pressure rate 2018 behind only Deshaun Watson at 41.1%. Puts it in some context. From PFF's game analysis: What's a little puzzling is Trubisky actually graded out pretty well under pressure last year. Now he suddenly imploded under pressure last night. Also, Bears oline really should be a lot better than this and normally are (fringe top 10 last year). Most things simply went wrong on offense week 1, to me it really looks like a big anomaly for the most part (well, 3 points scored pretty much already told us that). I guess that's what can happen on TNF and season opening TNF especially. Expecting a way better functioning offense going forward. Still nice to see ARob stepping up and totally carry the offense when almost everything else fell apart. 40% of the team's yardage last night. For comparison, 2018 Todd Gurley, perhaps the modern epitome of an offense centerpiece, had 27% of Rams' yardage.