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  1. Does making a spot nominal start even count as ever leaving the bullpen? Like are people viewing a 1 or 2 IP opener as a "starter" who has graduated from the bullpen?
  2. Any thoughts on his outlook as a keeper for next year in 5x5 roto formats? He seems like he has the skills to be a nice value if he would just get every day at bats but I don't have any sense as to how much priority they will put on giving him that chance next year.
  3. Not sure I'm brave enough to start him in this one. Really needs wins and ratios which you would generally think a home game would provide for a pitcher of his caliber but he has just been so bad lately. Probably one of those where he will blow up if you start him and lock them down if you don't.
  4. Brought up Morton because Morton owners faced the same decision last night - whether to start him against the Astros.
  5. Yep. He isn't matching up against the biggest world beaters. It is a place in the draft you can get a total bust and recover just fine: 80 Latavius Murray NO (9) RB33 87 67 94 82.7 81 Derrius Guice WAS (10) RB34 91 69 88 82.7 82 Jordan Howard PHI (10) RB35 95 85 72 84.0 83 Drew Brees NO (9) QB8 65 83 106 84.7 84 Rashaad Penny SEA (11) RB36 96 79 80 85.0 85 Josh Gordon NE (10) WR33 82 107 73 87.3 86 Dante Pettis SF (4) WR34 92 88 82 87.3 87 Darrell Henderson LAR (9) RB37 99 86 79 88.0 88 Sammy Watkins KC (12) WR35 93 93 81 89.0 89 Cam Newton CAR (7) QB9 77 92 102 90.3
  6. Thanks for the post. Some good info in there. For me, I think that projecting 1,315 yards is the opposite of conservative even if you assume he stays healthy / non-suspended / etc. If he played 16 games last season with the same productivity he had during his 11 games in NE, that would mean 1047 yards in 16 games. So 1,315 is a 26% increase over that 11 game sample. That is a huge bump. I agree that he had increased targets with Gronk out but the Patriots have had a full offseason to adjust to Gronk being gone now whereas they simply dropped their top target in the middle of the season last year which to my mind is more favorable than Gordon's position after the offseason. I.e., I think the Pats are more likely to increase usage in the short-term during Gronk's unanticipated midseason absences as opposed to their target distribution after a full offseason. (I also don't consider his 24 yards per reception when Gronk was out to be sustainable and chock that up to SSS). Assuming he doesn't miss a single game (which is a huge risk item as I think you've noted), I don't put your projection down as impossible but I put it clearly on the aggressive side of the spectrum.
  7. Using his career to date, I question where to value him. There is a granted risk of him not playing that should be baked into everyone's numbers but what is his upside? Career Avg Per Game Excluding 2013, Pro-rated over 16 games is 918 yards. Career Avg Per Game Including 2013, Pro-Rated over 16 games is 1,178 yards. So you'd factor in meaningful risk of serious missed time and a ceiling of somewhere between 918 yards and 1,178 yards. So his value seems to depend on how much of an outlier you think 2013 represented and how his head is screwed on this year. If you are talking 6th round value for him, I think that is too rich for me but there becomes a price point where he becomes attactive. Just tough to put a finger precisely on it given how much unknown there is with him.
  8. Pretty sure the math is: Take totals from age 21, 22, 26, and 27 seasons and divide by 4. That yields a 545 yard/season average. Also yields a 16 game pro-rated average of 917 yards per season (i.e., total yards / total games x 16).
  9. I read that Brannigan is holding out and won't take the field until they approve his vintage 1978 velour uniform. Rooting for him and Brown to win their appeals.
  10. This seems like it misses the basic misunderstanding of the issue. As people better understand the science of concussions and better technology becomes available, the NFL will change the requirements for helmets and what may have been permitted last year may be no longer allowed this year if the league has made changes to what is considered the minimum floor for acceptably safe equipment. What was deemed safe in 1934 was different than 1950, which was different than 1970, which was different than 2000, which was different than 2018, which is now different than 2019. These things change over time and while there will always be people who resist change it is inevitable that the league will have to force these changes through to the players. There is no good point here for Brown.
  11. The issue with Gordon has always been between his ears. That is not only an actual argument for why he might not succeed but also a compelling one. Labeling it anything else is disingenuous. Now I will agree with you that it is redundant past a certain point because everyone is aware of the risks associated with his behavior and mental focus (or lack thereof) and since it is not something you can measure there isn't likely to be any consensus on it. So asking people to accept that minds will differ on whether he has reformed or not and to focus on things that are more observable seems like the right ask. I think most people agree that if he plays, he can produce. Some people will look at last year and project a 1000 yard season by extrapolating his 11 games to a full schedule. Others will look at his track record and say you will be lucky if you get 11 games out of him. So the question on valuation comes largely down to whether he will be on the field or end up flaking out or suspended.
  12. Yeah, pretending like he pitched in the bullpen because of anything other than a desire to limit his innings due to health issues is some major league level re-writing of history. Their current bullpen lacks any good strategy beyond "grab some mediocre arms, throw them out and see if something sticks." They better not have given up any long-term assets for disposable arms like Greene.
  13. It is definitely punishing all of us.
  14. In my league at least, you can only start one player each day in the UTIL spot which means bench bats are of more limited value since they are really filling in for days off rather than purely additive to your totals. With Shohei out, I got production from someone on a full-time basis until he returned and then Ohtani's production since from that spot. So I've been quite happy with what we've seen from him and what I've gotten from the UTIL slot. May is the only month he hasn't given super useful production on a 600 AB basis unless you think you can't find a use for a 57 HR / 26 SB player (June) or a 22 HR / 36 SB player (July).