BrianM

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BrianM last won the day on March 23 2018

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  1. Another topic I just thought of- are any of the veteran TE's who disappointed last year capable of a decent bounceback season? I looked at the lot and said maybe for real cheap you could sell me on Jimmy Graham. He had the hand injury that he played through, and I guess there's a scenario in which he gets back up to 6-7 TE's and pays off.
  2. I also feel like this year, in auction in particular, the top 3 TE's will cost even more than they have in the past. I expect Kelce to be the most expensive TE ever in my auction, and Ertz will be just a little cheaper than him, Kittle just a little behind them. That'll raise the stakes in terms of opportunity cost if you want to take the plunge. I still think there's value in it, but in a deep league, its more of a sacrifice. I can't see myself spending 12-15 on anyone in the next tier, the usual going rate in my league. Last year that group was Graham, Burton, Doyle, Walker, Rudolph, Olsen, and Engram. Kittle was surprisingly a little cheaper than those, he's the only real success story (maybe Hooper i guess). Ebron and Cook were undrafted.
  3. Ugh, this no Gronk thing is gonna turn into the next "bulletin board material" or "everyone doubted us" thing, isn't it. They'll be just fine, because they're cruising to a division title, unless Sam Darnold is Patrick Mahomes (and probably still will even if he is). Come playoff time, they'll find themselves against at least one choking team, and another that just can't handle a Belichick curveball, and voila, they're back where they always are.
  4. Personally I feel like zero TE is the way to go for me this year. I spent 12% of my budget last year on Rudolph and Delanie, in a 14 teamer. I got production that was worth less than half of that, and was able to get playoff luck and won it all. Naturally, i now believe I'm TE invincible and plan to spend less than $10 overall on a couple guys. I like Chris Herndon as a guy that could be maybe $2 at most. He had good red zone stats. I wouldnt expect a lot of weekly volume, but, you get what you pay for. 6-7 TD's makes me happy there, and he's got some upside in an offense where they have some ok WR's, but no real target hogs. I'm a huge Vance McDonald fan too. I suspect his ADP will rise, but he'll be worth spending a little more than scraps, if i can.
  5. Discuss how you plan to approach drafting TE's this year. Questions to potentially address: How early should Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle go? Is there any TE beyond those three that's actually worth a mid round pick? Whom in the lower ADP's do you like as a potential Cook or Ebron? Are any of these rookies going to be worth drafting and starting regularly?
  6. 2011-2013 seemed to have better second tiers based on what I'm looking at (I use FF Today for historical data). But yeah, that's a brief period. Maybe this good draft class will give us a few more guys that can consistently put up 10 ppg or more. Personally I feel worse about 2019's group than I do 2018's. I'm gonna start a TE strategy thread, i want to expand on this a bit, but its off topic here.
  7. I heard maybe his parents helped him cheat on his SAT's too
  8. Ehh, I've felt like the depth has been a lot better 3-4 years ago, but there was only a short window where we really had a lot of em to choose from
  9. Indeed, plus I'm in for the extra Godwin targets.
  10. Allen to me is a QB2 with weekly QB1 upside because of the rushing. Very, very much matchup dependent, with a seriously low weekly floor. Of the additions, I only really like Brown and Morse as somewhat impactful. The rest of the OL are pedestrian, though likely better than the guys they'll replace of course. I'm sure you can look at his hot streak late last year and see a guy who maybe can put it all together and crack the upper echelon. It has to be noted that their schedule was top heavy- they played a lot of bad teams in that run, including a couple that were just cruising and didn't care to try hard. That said, I want him at least once, though paired with a safe QB. He's fun.
  11. Well, they picked the right time in terms of draft class to have the TE need I guess. Not much out there in terms of FA's, but i'll throw an idea out there- Cameron Brate? His salary is now guaranteed but its essentially a one year 7 mil deal. Pats can manage that, and probably dont have to give up much to trade for him. I'd still be drafting a guy for sure, maybe even two, but Brate at least gives them something to use for one year.
  12. They're squeezing for cap no matter what at this point. Matt Ryan's deal looks likely to hold them back more than anything. Balloons to mid 30's on cap hit the next few years (after 2019). Can't reasonably cut him until after 2021, which still leaves behind 18 mil dead. He'll be 36 then. Gonna take some wizardry here Right now, they have about 30 million in 2020 cap space. They'll get a little more as the overall cap should increase, but they have a lot of key free agents to retain or replace too- Jarrett, Deion Jones, and Neal stand out. Neal has the 5th year option but that's not on the books yet and will make him costly.
  13. Quick peek here gives me 6 guys that won a bowl in the last 15- Wayne, Harrison, Cruz, Ward, Nelson, DT, and 6 that lost: Moss, Welker, Wayne, Julio, DT, and Fitz In a (probably failing) attempt at closing, I contend again that when you have All Pro talent, you pay it when the time comes, and you're a better team for it. Every one of these guys save for Moss and Welker were drafted (or UDFA) by their original teams. I dont think throwing dollars blindly at free agents is a winning strategy, but drafting, developing, retaining, is the way to go. True of most any position.
  14. Trying to sum this up and address counter arguments. I believe that there's enough All Pro WR's that have won super bowls, or come close, to at least cast shade on the anti-Julio argument. You've pointed out that the last 15 years has seen less than the 15 years prior, clearly correct of course. I chose a larger sample size. If you want to look at just the last 15 years, basically the Patriots era, there's probably a dozen of the guys in my ramble of names that played in the super bowl. More than half didn't WIN it, but I believe that getting close enough is a notch in my side of the argument. I dont believe the Falcons win the SB if they trade off Julio's salary for better defense. I blame the coaches for that, for example. You can also very easily note that the last 5 years have supported your argument even more- basically Julio and Demaryius are the only ones. Point granted. Focusing on the how much they were paid argument......see above that I have entrenched my belief that All Pro WR's do make a strong difference. I again did not, and will not go back to check their salaries. You'll find some that made great money during their SB years or All Pro years (not sure which you're even looking for data on) and some that were values. I dont think that matters at all. I get why you're bringing it up, but I think that star WR's are difference makers, and therefore a desirable player to have on your roster. I never put stock in the theory that you should only get a star if its cheap. Pay the players you can get, and when they're stars, pay them what they're worth. "We can't pay Julio Jones because the Giants lucked out on Victor Cruz for cheap and he was an all pro on their title team"- not a belief I subscribe to. That's why I dont care how much they were paid while they won, and even if i did, i believe plenty of the guys I listed probably were highly paid. TL:DR- maybe there's something there to the "you dont need the WR to win argument". I'll call it difference of opinion. But, I dont buy at all that my side of that argument is dismissable because some of the all pros I listed didn't earn high salaries when they made the AP team.
  15. the "sometimes the guys were not paid well the season they won" point is bunk. There's no obvious strategy to luck out on such a player.