handyandy86

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handyandy86 last won the day on May 23

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  1. Terrelle Pryor 2018 Outlook

    Bills also just signed Matt Barkley, presumably to back up Peterman. So I'd say the chances of seeing Pryor at QB are quite low.
  2. Martavis Bryant 2018 Outlook

    I haven't seen anything official yet, but apparently Bryant's snap count this week was only like 3. If that's the case, he didn't get an opportunity this week. That being said, I wonder why he would lose so many snaps so quickly? Especially when Cooper is gone and there is a huge hole to fill. I wonder if there is some disciplinary reason, or does Gruden really just think LaFell is that much better?
  3. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    Davis is the clear handcuff here - don't over think it. You don't need to look any further than Week 4 when Carson was out to see who the cuff was - Davis rushed it 21 times. Davis is also the guy getting the other 35% of snaps while Penny watches from the bench. The Penny lovers have been spouting the nonsense all year that "Pete has to play the 1st rounder", and it's just not true. Seattle is 4-3 and playing for a playoff spot, and Pete will play whoever he thinks gives the team the best chance to win. The most work Penny has had in several weeks was in the 4th quarter of a 30-point blowout. He's nothing more than a dynasty stash right now. I also can't believe people are still playing up the "never know what Petey boy will do" silliness. This was the 5th straight week Seattle RB's have had at least 34 touches. Every week, outside of Week 4 when Carson was hurt, Carson has led the backfield in touches, sitting around 60-65% depending on game flow, which for the mathematically-challenged is at least 20 touches a game. Davis has clearly been the #2 RB every week. Penny plays ST and rides the pine unless the game is way out of hand. If anything, Pete's RB usage has been one of the most consistent across the league since Week 3.
  4. Geronimo Allison 2018 Outlook

    Snap counts are out now, total 52 offensive snaps: Adams 40, MVS 31, Allison 30, Cobb 24, ESB 6. The snap split is much more even than the box score really shows. Disappointing for sure to see MVS right up there in snaps with Allison (for Allison owners that is), but as dashoe suggested, it was first game back for guys that were limited in practice all week.
  5. Geronimo Allison 2018 Outlook

    This is a lot to read into the usage in 1 game. I'm not saying it's right or wrong, but I don't think we can really get much of a glimpse into how GB envisions the future at WR from a single game, which was Allison's first back after a long layoff. I haven't seen an official snap count yet, but it sounds like Allison still played a large amount of snaps. MVS made the big 40 yard TD play late in the game, but before that play he was also 1 catch for 5 yards. Do you really think one 40 yard TD is going to change the team's entire outlook at WR going forward? Maybe, but seems like a bit of a stretch. And ESB was 2 catches for 31 yards. I'm not saying the game wasn't disappointing for Allison, and it certianly gives reason for concern. But I'd also be careful 'over-reading' the tea leaves here. This was a strange game against a good defense, first game back, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see an uptick in targets in a more normal game flow (and once Allison gets his legs under him. Don't forget, Allison was a limited participant in practice all of last week, never got in a full practice.
  6. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    Lol @ "productive a time or two" - he's only played 5 games, the first 2 the offense and play calling was a complete mess, and the last three he's averaged 92 yards a game (and that's not playing the 4th qtr of a blowout last game). That's a season pace of over 1400 rushing yards for anyone that's counting. And I don't get why people keep saying Penny is going to get all these opportunities - he only gets touches when there are no other options, or the game is a complete blowout. Week 3 he had 3 touches. Week 4 Carson was out and he still only got 9 touches and they chose to run that "level below a JAG" Davis 25 times (does that make Penny two levels below a JAG??). Week 5 Penny was active and got 0 touches. Zero. Week 6 he had 3 touches in the first 3 quarters, and then 8 in the 4th quarter after going up by 30 points, while Carson and Davis drank Gatorade on the bench. Penny is a distant third in this backfield. I hate to say it, but the whole point of fantasy football is "what if" and speculate. Because if it was as easy as saying Carson only has 350 yards and it's Week 8, and you know that's what he'll continue to produce like, then there would be no point in playing. But we know it's not that easy, and "speculating" or digging deeper into the surface numbers is how you predict what is going to happen.
  7. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    I don't see that at all. After sharing touches in Weeks 1 and 2 with Carson, he had 3 in Week 3. Then up to 9 in Week 4 because Carson was out injured and they couldn't give the ball to Mike Davis 35 times. Week 5 he had 0 touches while being active. Then Week 6 he got 11, pretty much every one in the 4th quarter up 27-0 while resting Carson and Davis. Penny is a distant third in this backfield, and is essentially just a run-out-the-clock punching bag at this point. Nothing indicates they're intent at all on getting him touches, other than to save miles on their top 2 RB's in a blowout.
  8. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    I think there's a bit more due diligence needed to be done on these touch counts than just adding up the totals for the year. There are plenty of nuances and game scripting at play that I think we need to consider to fully evaluate this. Week 1 - Mike Davis was not active, the game had horrible flow, and I think Carroll was still unsure how he was going to use his RBs. In the grand scheme of how this will play out ROS (what we care about in fantasy) this game doesn't hold much relevance, but Carson and Penny split touches 50/50. Week 2 - Davis was active but a small player in the backfield. Another horrible game with not much running or success in general offensively. Again I don't think numbers from this game mean much to any player's usage going forward. Week 3 - Here's where things got interesting - the Seahawks finally committed to running the ball, Carson was unsurprisingly a lot more effective when he was able to get into the flow, and he ended up with 89% of the touches. Now I don't think that's indicative of how heavy of a workload Carson will get moving forward, but it was an important development as this was the first game Carroll really chose to ride Carson over Penny. And after RBs seeing only 24 and 23 touches the first two weeks, this week they saw 38. Week 4 - After such a great Week 3, of course Carson is injured and is out. Mike Davis gets the ball 25 times (good for 74% of the workload) as Carroll again shies away from using Penny, and Davis does a good job running the ball. Just as it looked like Carson had left Penny in the dust, now comes in a new contender. 34 touches to RBs kept the increased onus on the ground game. Week 5 - Carson back and with the success of Davis in the previous week, Carroll used both and completely ignored Penny, despite him being active. Carson saw 20 touches while Davis saw 14, and both were very effective, with Davis putting up 5.6 YPC and Carson 6.1 YPC. Again 34 RB touches. This is starting to look like a 2-RB race. Week 6 - On the surface of reading the box score, you'd think this was taking a turn as more of a 3-way committee again, with Carson getting 14 touches to Penny's 11 and Davis' 9. However if you look closer at the game script and who got touches at what points of the game, it still points to Penny being an afterthought. Carson had 9 of his 14 touches in the 1st half, and none in the 4th quarter after going up 27-0. Penny only had 3 touches in the first 3 quarters, and 8 in the 4th quarter when they were just running out the clock. The take-away from this game for me is not that the touches were split 14-11-9 at the end of the game, but that they were split 14-8-3 in the first three quarters when Carroll still had his foot on the gas. Another week of 34 total RB touches, and if the game stayed competitive for 4 quarters Carson was on pace for another 19-20 touches. So my reading of the tea leaves is this: - everything changed in Week 3 - since Week 3 Penny has been an afterthought, only getting significant touches in the 4th quarter of a blowout. - Davis put pressure on Carson in Week 4 when he was out, but Carson has out-played Davis since, and each subsequent game he has gained a larger piece of the pie back from Davis. - Since Week 3 Seattle has consistently given RBs 34+ touches a game, with the "lead" back (Davis W4, Carson W5 and W6) seeing about 20 touches a game. Usage in the past two weeks says Carson is that lead guy, and if anything he is slowly opening a bigger gap between himself and Davis. Conclusion: Carson will continue to get around 20 touches per game, except in very odd game scripts (like going up by almost 30 points). I don't care about the semantics of whether it's RBBC or lead/secondary or whatever, the bottom line is - if Carson is getting 20 touches a game going forward, like everything is pointing to, he will be a very viable RB2 in fantasy. 20 touches is plenty of a back like Carson to do some damage and put up some good numbers.
  9. Deshaun Watson 2018 Outlook

    Since Week 2 he's been the #3 QB in fantasy. What exactly is wrong with that?
  10. Marcus Mariota 2018 Outlook

    To be fair, Mariota hasn't really been at full arm strength all year. He's essentially played 3 games, one of which he shouldn't have played, couldn't throw downfield at all, and only got called in because Gabbert got hurt. The other 2 games consisted of a monster game against PHI and a horrible one against BUF. I agree I wouldn't give him too much thought in a standard sized league, especially to start this week, but I also think it's unfair to say he's a bust and a bad QB. Buffalo's defense is quite underrated. In deep leagues and 2 QB leagues I'm certainly still holding, and waiting to see more. In leagues where QBs come at a premium, I wouldn't be giving up on him based on his injured results so far.
  11. Niles Paul 2018 Outlook

    The passing numbers are far from fraudulent - he's not going to throw 61 times a game, but the other two games you failed to mention his passing yardage from were 388 and 376 yards. And he had 3,687 passing yards last year, which coincidentally also put him 11th in the league in passing. Pretty much every QB has clunkers. Tom Brady had a 133 yard game against the Lions of all teams. Not every fantasy relevant player needs to have a future HOFer throwing to him. Is Bortles the second coming of Brett Favre? No. Are there plenty of reasons not to stream Niles Paul? Yep. But Blake Bortles is not one of those reasons.
  12. Niles Paul 2018 Outlook

    This is pretty far down the list of reasons I would use against streaming Paul. Bortles might not be a "good" QB, but he's 11th in the league with 1,525 passing yards. That's more than Mahomes, Rivers, Luck, Brady, Luck, Wilson, etc. He doesn't need to be good when he's throwing more pass attempts than almost every QB in the league. Unless your league scores incompletions, volume is your main friend in fantasy for any position.
  13. Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

    And all I see is someone with no logical argument (or even opinion it seems) that's using the last tactic in their arsenal to try and "win" and internet convo - "you own that guy so you just think he's the bestest ever!" I'm here to have grown up conversations and talk sports, not argue like a 5 year old over whose Barbie is cooler. So if you have something relevant or meaningful to add then maybe you can do it without the tantrum. So basically what I'm reading is your whole stance is that you have no opinion? Nobody knows for sure what the usage will be and everyone will get work so why bother trying to predict who gets what? If that's your whole premise then what's the point of even posting in the first place? The whole reason for the forum and discussion is to try and predict what will happen in the future to use it to your advantage. If you feel that Sproles will lead the committee and get the most touches then speak up and say so, but if your point is "who knows, could be anyone" then I don't know what we're even discussing. My stance is this (and disclaimer, I'm just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, I've never said "this is what will happen for sure" or acted like I know more than anyone else) - it's always been a committee, but one that Ajayi was the head of and saw 40-50% of snaps. Sproles we don't have any significant sample size on the last couple years because he's always hurt, but based on our 1 week sample size he saw about 40% of snaps as well. The #3 back in Week 1 saw the other 20% of snaps, who was Clement. Now Ajayi is gone, and outside of a trade (which obviously could drastically change things), we now have Clement, Smallwood, and Sproles left to fill these 3 committee spots. Yes, I know Josh Adams is there too, but it's not a 4-RB committee as you claim. Just like in Week 1 with Smallwood, last night Adams was a "use in case of emergency" guy. Not part of the rotation. So here are our logical options (which again, I know the breakdown could be any number of combinations, but here are the ones I think are most likely): Option 1 - with Ajayi injured, Clement takes up his previous snap count at 40-50% usage. This makes most sense to me and is what I'm saying I think will happen. He was and always has been ahead of Smallwood on the depth chart. He looked better last night. Sproles at 35 years old and 5'6" isn't going to take on any more than the 40ish% he was already going to. Smallwood is the 3rd part of the committee that will probably see 20-30% of snaps when/if Sproles gets healthy, and more in the interim (pretty even split with Clement if no Sproles playing). Option 2 - Sproles was #2 back in Week 1 / shared the workload with Ajayi, so I guess your theory is everyone moves up a peg on the depth chart and Sproles is the head of the committee? Well he was already at a 40% snap count, and as previously stated he's 35 and 5'6" and hasn't carried a large load in years. So somehow I guess despite those facts Sproles takes on an even bigger workload than the 40%, and tries not to get broken again, and tries to fill Ajayi's running between the tackles role with his tiny body. Hmmmm . . . Option 3 - last night was a preview showing us that Pederson prefers Smallwood in the head of the committee role, and he continues to get the 40-50% usage. This is certainly possible, but given that he has been pretty ineffective, and that he's always been behind Clement on the depth chart, I don't personally see it as likely. But I could see how someone could argue this. If I'm putting stock behind a scenario though, it isn't this one for me. And even in this scenario, there's still another 50-60% of snap counts to share between Sproles and Clement, which could theoretically make them all fantasy relevant to a degree. In PPR obviously the ones that catch more passes will have more value, and if one emerges as the GL/RZ guy more so than the others that would give that player a boost too. So which is it @Szer0? Do you really think Sproles is able to take on even more workload than Week 1? Or is your stance still you don't know?
  14. Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

    You mean the game where the snaps ended up Ajayi 29, Sproles 29, Clement 13, and the Eagles put up 81 total yards on offense in the first half? Where Ajayi played 40% of snaps, which to recap, I said Clement will likely end up with 40-50% of snaps going forward? There's of course no guarantees in anything, but you cherry picked a single half of the strangest game of the season where the RB timeshare was most evenly split, and even that full game data point backs up what I'm suggesting the time share will be (which last time I checked, fantasy scores the whole game). Will there be certain games or halves or quarters where Clement doesn't have the highest snap count among Eagles RBs? Of course! But there will be other games where he gets more than 50% based on game flow / script, etc. When I'm saying I think Clement sees 40-50% snap count going forward, I'm not counting by the minute - that's just an approximation to how it will work out over time. There's almost no RB that is completely matchup and game script proof every single week.
  15. Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook

    That's not really bold considering RBs get injured all the time, and it's a complete guess on your part. Unless you're Miss Cleo there's no point in marking your post because what does it prove to show you can say random outcome and it happened by chance? Bold prediction: Yeldon keeps producing like a borderline RB1 in PPR until Fournette comes back healthy in Week 10, making everyone wish they had just handcuffed with the guy they spent all off season calling a JAG.