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handyandy86 last won the day on May 23

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  1. Deshaun Watson 2018 Outlook

    Since Week 2 he's been the #3 QB in fantasy. What exactly is wrong with that?
  2. Marcus Mariota 2018 Outlook

    To be fair, Mariota hasn't really been at full arm strength all year. He's essentially played 3 games, one of which he shouldn't have played, couldn't throw downfield at all, and only got called in because Gabbert got hurt. The other 2 games consisted of a monster game against PHI and a horrible one against BUF. I agree I wouldn't give him too much thought in a standard sized league, especially to start this week, but I also think it's unfair to say he's a bust and a bad QB. Buffalo's defense is quite underrated. In deep leagues and 2 QB leagues I'm certainly still holding, and waiting to see more. In leagues where QBs come at a premium, I wouldn't be giving up on him based on his injured results so far.
  3. Niles Paul 2018 Outlook

    The passing numbers are far from fraudulent - he's not going to throw 61 times a game, but the other two games you failed to mention his passing yardage from were 388 and 376 yards. And he had 3,687 passing yards last year, which coincidentally also put him 11th in the league in passing. Pretty much every QB has clunkers. Tom Brady had a 133 yard game against the Lions of all teams. Not every fantasy relevant player needs to have a future HOFer throwing to him. Is Bortles the second coming of Brett Favre? No. Are there plenty of reasons not to stream Niles Paul? Yep. But Blake Bortles is not one of those reasons.
  4. Niles Paul 2018 Outlook

    This is pretty far down the list of reasons I would use against streaming Paul. Bortles might not be a "good" QB, but he's 11th in the league with 1,525 passing yards. That's more than Mahomes, Rivers, Luck, Brady, Luck, Wilson, etc. He doesn't need to be good when he's throwing more pass attempts than almost every QB in the league. Unless your league scores incompletions, volume is your main friend in fantasy for any position.
  5. Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

    And all I see is someone with no logical argument (or even opinion it seems) that's using the last tactic in their arsenal to try and "win" and internet convo - "you own that guy so you just think he's the bestest ever!" I'm here to have grown up conversations and talk sports, not argue like a 5 year old over whose Barbie is cooler. So if you have something relevant or meaningful to add then maybe you can do it without the tantrum. So basically what I'm reading is your whole stance is that you have no opinion? Nobody knows for sure what the usage will be and everyone will get work so why bother trying to predict who gets what? If that's your whole premise then what's the point of even posting in the first place? The whole reason for the forum and discussion is to try and predict what will happen in the future to use it to your advantage. If you feel that Sproles will lead the committee and get the most touches then speak up and say so, but if your point is "who knows, could be anyone" then I don't know what we're even discussing. My stance is this (and disclaimer, I'm just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, I've never said "this is what will happen for sure" or acted like I know more than anyone else) - it's always been a committee, but one that Ajayi was the head of and saw 40-50% of snaps. Sproles we don't have any significant sample size on the last couple years because he's always hurt, but based on our 1 week sample size he saw about 40% of snaps as well. The #3 back in Week 1 saw the other 20% of snaps, who was Clement. Now Ajayi is gone, and outside of a trade (which obviously could drastically change things), we now have Clement, Smallwood, and Sproles left to fill these 3 committee spots. Yes, I know Josh Adams is there too, but it's not a 4-RB committee as you claim. Just like in Week 1 with Smallwood, last night Adams was a "use in case of emergency" guy. Not part of the rotation. So here are our logical options (which again, I know the breakdown could be any number of combinations, but here are the ones I think are most likely): Option 1 - with Ajayi injured, Clement takes up his previous snap count at 40-50% usage. This makes most sense to me and is what I'm saying I think will happen. He was and always has been ahead of Smallwood on the depth chart. He looked better last night. Sproles at 35 years old and 5'6" isn't going to take on any more than the 40ish% he was already going to. Smallwood is the 3rd part of the committee that will probably see 20-30% of snaps when/if Sproles gets healthy, and more in the interim (pretty even split with Clement if no Sproles playing). Option 2 - Sproles was #2 back in Week 1 / shared the workload with Ajayi, so I guess your theory is everyone moves up a peg on the depth chart and Sproles is the head of the committee? Well he was already at a 40% snap count, and as previously stated he's 35 and 5'6" and hasn't carried a large load in years. So somehow I guess despite those facts Sproles takes on an even bigger workload than the 40%, and tries not to get broken again, and tries to fill Ajayi's running between the tackles role with his tiny body. Hmmmm . . . Option 3 - last night was a preview showing us that Pederson prefers Smallwood in the head of the committee role, and he continues to get the 40-50% usage. This is certainly possible, but given that he has been pretty ineffective, and that he's always been behind Clement on the depth chart, I don't personally see it as likely. But I could see how someone could argue this. If I'm putting stock behind a scenario though, it isn't this one for me. And even in this scenario, there's still another 50-60% of snap counts to share between Sproles and Clement, which could theoretically make them all fantasy relevant to a degree. In PPR obviously the ones that catch more passes will have more value, and if one emerges as the GL/RZ guy more so than the others that would give that player a boost too. So which is it @Szer0? Do you really think Sproles is able to take on even more workload than Week 1? Or is your stance still you don't know?
  6. Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

    You mean the game where the snaps ended up Ajayi 29, Sproles 29, Clement 13, and the Eagles put up 81 total yards on offense in the first half? Where Ajayi played 40% of snaps, which to recap, I said Clement will likely end up with 40-50% of snaps going forward? There's of course no guarantees in anything, but you cherry picked a single half of the strangest game of the season where the RB timeshare was most evenly split, and even that full game data point backs up what I'm suggesting the time share will be (which last time I checked, fantasy scores the whole game). Will there be certain games or halves or quarters where Clement doesn't have the highest snap count among Eagles RBs? Of course! But there will be other games where he gets more than 50% based on game flow / script, etc. When I'm saying I think Clement sees 40-50% snap count going forward, I'm not counting by the minute - that's just an approximation to how it will work out over time. There's almost no RB that is completely matchup and game script proof every single week.
  7. Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook

    That's not really bold considering RBs get injured all the time, and it's a complete guess on your part. Unless you're Miss Cleo there's no point in marking your post because what does it prove to show you can say random outcome and it happened by chance? Bold prediction: Yeldon keeps producing like a borderline RB1 in PPR until Fournette comes back healthy in Week 10, making everyone wish they had just handcuffed with the guy they spent all off season calling a JAG.
  8. Wendell Smallwood 2018 Outlook

    I mean nobody can tell the future, but it is a bit more than speculation. Week 3 when Ajayi was out and Clement was healthy, Clement out-snapped Smallwood 45 to 29. Clement outsnapped Smallwood 91 to 54 Week 1 to 3, and then Clement was out Week 4 and 5. Now Week 6 Clement is back and admittedly on a snap count and just working back in after being out two weeks, and he still very obviously was the more effective player. I agree that the more talented player doesn't always get the most snaps. And I also agree that Philly will run out some form of a committee. But if you don't think Clement is going to head that committee based on all of data up until now then you've got your head shoved in the sand. I'd expect going forward that Clement gets a 40-50% snap share similar to Ajayi's workload was, with Sproles and Smallwood sharing the remainder. Doesn't mean Smallwood can't have some value in certain fantasy leagues. But it's certainly going to be capped.
  9. Niles Paul 2018 Outlook

    Some things to consider regarding last week's performance to keep it in perspective: - he got 9 targets, but Bortles also threw the ball a whopping 61 times. - O'Shaughnessy basically had a 50% snap share, also had 6 targets, and is the only one of the pair that can block. - Weeks 1-4 with ASJ healthy he only averaged about 5 targets a game. If Paul and O'Shaughnessy see a similar workload split going forward, but with only 5-6 targets to share, Paul's usefulness in fantasy could really take a hit. Not saying he's not worth a flier or stream given the TE landscape, but I'd temper expectations.
  10. Taywan Taylor 2018 Outlook

    The snap count decrease isn't great to see, but he still got 5 targets out of 26 passes thrown - more than anyone other than Davis (who had 6). When he's on the field he's involved a lot, which is good to see. I also think I'd be holding at least one more week if I owned him. I know everyone expected the Titans to dominate the Bills, but the Bills defense might be a little better than people are giving them credit for so far. They held the Chargers in check at home a couple weeks ago (mostly got killed by bad field position due to Bills' offense being horrid) and they dominated the Vikings in Minnesota. Titans offense might not be a juggernaut, but they're going to put up more than 129 passing yards most weeks.
  11. NFL Waiver Wire Thread 2018 Week 6

    Because he's a 1st round pick whose usage is trending in the right direction. He started the year further down the depth chart, then after a big play in Week 2 Rivera was saying they need to find ways to get DJ the ball more. Week 3 didn't produce much, but then coming out of Week 4 bye he got 4 of 4 targets for 49 yards. Torrey Smith went from 7 targets Week 2 to 6 targets Week 3 to 1 target Week 5. It's pretty clear that Moore is moving up the depth chart there, and more targets are coming. And aside from Funchess there's no WR on that roster he couldn't pass up with another good game or two. That's why people are saying things like "DJ Moore stash" or "last chance to get him free". Talent and opportunity are coming together and after a 4-49 Week 5, if he continues gaining looks in that offense Week 6 then people will be scrambling for him Week 7. Get ahead of the rush.
  12. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    This is true, but Gridiron stated his RB22 ranking was including the bye, so I just compared in the same way.
  13. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    Who has the better players? 2017 starters: QB - Mike Glennon for the first 4 games WR - Josh Bellamy and Tanner Gentry TE - Dion Sims LB - Sam Acho and Christian Jones PK - Connor Barth (69% FG rate) 2018 starters: QB - sophomore Trubisky WR - Allen Robinson and T. Gabriel TE - T. Burton LB - Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith PK - Cody Parkey (90% FG rate) I'm not saying Fox is better than Nagy like some people, but it's a bit of an apples to oranges comparison. It's not the same team. The team has improved the talent on the field quite immensely and with that comes higher expectations. It's pretty hard to say Nagy's offense through 4 games has been definitively better than Fox's when Fox was rolling out players like Mike Glennon, Bellamy, Gentry, and Dion Sims. One thing I will echo that others have complained about regarding Nagy's offense is that he tries so hard to out-smart everyone he goes away from doing what has worked for decades. Like get a lead and run out the clock on the ground. So far this "being too cute" arguably cost them a win in Week 1, and might have cost them more wins had they not been playing bad teams like Arizona and TB.
  14. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    That's cute, but I think I've pretty plainly said that I think Howard will be in a timeshare and isn't going to finish as high as everyone hoped. My whole argument has been that your predictions for Cohen aren't realistic and the math doesn't add up, and your rebuttal to that is #OwnsHowardStock? How about addressing how many yards per touch Cohen would need to finish with 18+ PPG on 15 touches per game? I might be interested if you want to talk about a standard scoring system, like PPR or Standard, or at least could give some details on the scoring settings in your league. But you're clearly using some out of the box scoring here, because in my full point PPR Cohen is RB30 at 12.7 a game and in my 0.5 point PPR with return yards he's still only RB28. So how many points are given for return yards to bump him up to RB22? Lockett must be a top-5 WR. I'd probably have some more love for Cohen too if he somehow produced 5 points off 14 return yards in Week 4. Also props on the bar slowly moving lower. Last post he was going to average 18-20 points per game ROS, which would put him as a top 5/6 RB in PPR by last year's scoring, and now you're just looking for top 12 (about 12-13 ppg last year).
  15. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    Only 5 RBs averaged 18+ points per game in PPR last year, which was Gurley, Bell, Kamara, Hunt, and Gordon. If you think Cohen slots into that group ROS (basically a 1st round elite RB) then you're delusional. You've also admitted he will only likely hope to get 8-10 carries plus receiving work, so how efficient is he going to be with 12-15 touches? The RBs on that 18+ ppg list from last year had double that amount of touches! Regarding my earlier comment about PR/KR points, you don't have to get so defensive - I never said you shouldn't play in such a league. But you have to know the large majority of leagues don't count them. If you play in a custom / non standard league good for you, value players in that league however makes sense to you, but you can't act like that's the norm. And even with KR/PR, I still don't see how Cohen scored an extra 5 points in week 4 in your league with only 14 return yards. I just don't see how your usage estimates match up with your projected points. The math doesn't add up. One last thing I wanted to touch on is your insistence that Howard is such a horrible pass catcher - he worked a lot on it over the off season, put in a lot of extra time, and so far has caught 10 of 12. Do you not think Howard could have improved? I don't think Howard is going to be the second coming of Devonta Freeman or anything, but I certainly think early results have shown he's improved from his near-last ranking from years before. The reality likely is that, outside of very obvious matchup plays for each running style, Cohen and Howard likely eat into each other's work enough to really frustrate fantasy owners, and cap each other's upside.