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handyandy86 last won the day on May 23

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  1. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    I'm not arguing that I think (or the Bears think) that Shaheen is superior to Burton, but you can bet Shaheen will be out there in the RZ this year (3 of 12 receptions last year were for TD's). If he catches another 3 TD's, or 5 TD's, or whatever, that is directly taking away TD's from Burton. A lot like some RB's have TD vultures on their team, I think Shaheen might be a bit of a TD vulture for Burton. I don't think it's reason enough to not draft Burton, but the difference between Shaheen catching 3-4 TD's versus those going to Burton could be the difference between Burton finishing as a top-10 TE and a top-5 TE.
  2. Trey Burton 2018 Outlook

    I think the worry is that Shaheen will have more plays in the redzone, which could take away partially from Burton's value. At this point that's just speculation, but even if Burton is heavily involved between the 20's and has plays designed for him, his fantasy value would be capped if he doesn't score many TD's. The fact that Shaheen is a big body that thrives in the redzone, and the organization spent a 2nd round pick on, gives me a slight bit of concern. I still think Burton is great value if he stays at or near his current ADP.
  3. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    Well said @RoboFroogs. I'm not sure if it's because he didn't return value last year, or that he's become a bit 'boring' as an old school style RB that we've seen for a couple years now, in a sea of exciting new RB's that can "do it all", but Howard does get undervalued a lot. One thing I value in my early round picks is a really safe floor, and I think Howard has one of the safest floors out there.
  4. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    As in they were using pressure tactics to try and get a player, away from the team with anxiety issues, to return sooner? That's like hitting Guice in the knee with a baseball bat to try and speed up his recovery time.
  5. 2018 Draft Strategy

    Of that group my preferences / targets would be Tate, Cooks, and Jones. Crabtree I'm weary of since reports out of camp don't seem to be too positive; Woods I'm also a bit down on because I believe Cooks will take away some his his targets; Fuller I'd also rate low out of that group because I think he'll be very boom or bust. DT, Sanders, Funchess, or Cobb are all WR's that I'd be happy to draft, but I just put them kind of in the middle of that group (likely in that order). You mean like the difference between say pick 60 and pick 72 in the 5th round? Do you have any specific examples where this difference is staggering? When I was drafting I felt nearly the opposite . . . as I was looking at round 4/5 WR's I could scroll all the way down to round 7/8 WR's and didn't think there was much of a difference at all in talent. Drove me to look at QB and TE sooner than I had planned. Same goes for RB, value after the 3rd round stays very similar in my mind for a few rounds in the middle.
  6. Jordan Howard 2018 Outlook

    CMC's O-line is also crumbling before him, and I doubt CJA comes into the team and rides the pine for most of the game. He signed a pretty incentive-based 1-year prove-it deal, so I would expect Rivera has promised him a decent amount of touches / opportunities. I prefer Howard because he is a legit 300-touch RB (well, 299 last year) who is in an improving offense. But I agree it's very close, and the scales can be tipped either way depending on scoring format.
  7. 2018 Draft Strategy

    Agreed with @scheibler. I don't think drafting two TE's is a horrible idea if that is the best player on the board, but I would also not draft anyone if I wasn't comfortable with the idea of having them on my roster all season. Depending on the league trading can be very difficult, and I've found in the past that the positions that a lot of people purposely "wait on" in drafts (TE and QB) are positions people don't seem to want to pay a premium for when trading either. The teams that could use a TE or QB upgrade due to drafting them really late are usually the type of owners that still think halfway through the season that they can uncover that diamond in the rough and pay off their strategy. Also since you start multiple RB and WR in most leagues, it's hard to get people to trade depth from those positions even if they have it. An interesting alternative to going Gronk (2nd) and Graham (4th) would be to go Gronk (2nd) and someone like Trey Burton (8th). Gronk has the name and trade value, and Burton has legit high end upside, but of course being a less 'safe' pick than the earlier TE's. You can use your 4th on another RB or WR to fill that position out with talent still on the board, and if Burton breaks out as a top TE then you can trade Gronk for a premium and use Burton as your TE. For me it seems to make sense to pair a high end, safe player with an upside pick, because then you can really stand to gain if things break your way.
  8. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    I'd personally rather grab Carson and another RB with high upside like Hyde or Dion Lewis. Penny is still going late 5th round according to FFC, and if that's the case there are a lot more RB's I like better in that range. The problem with the strategy of trying to lock up the backfield is that there's always the chance they eat into each other's value, and you end up with two bench/flex RB's. While I think history really shows us that Carroll favors using a single RB, I'd rather give myself a shot at picking two winning horses than having my best case scenario using 2 picks to get 1 RB.
  9. Dez Bryant 2018 Outlook

    I think people are letting their feelings about Dez's personality and his public perception cloud their judgement. A classic case of where everyone wants to see a guy fail. Based on everything I've read I wouldn't even necessarily call him a locker room cancer - he's just an opinionated and outspoken player, and that seems to endear him to some teammates and rub some the wrong way. Romo has said that he thought Dez was a great teammate, so I'm guessing those that speak poorly of him are ones that he's butted heads with. And usually those butting heads in a locker room are strong personalities themselves, and would have their own fair share of critics if everyone spoke freely. Attitude aside, everyone's talking like Dez is toast and a horrible receiver, yet he still managed to finish as WR24 last year in PPR, with a QB with one of the league's lowest Y/A throwing to him. I don't think anyone should be expecting a return to WR1 status, but if he signs into a decent situation and gets the PT he would still seem to have the talent to easily float him as a WR3 for fantasy purposes, with upside for more. If he does sign then his ADP likely goes up significantly on name value, which may or may not exceed his value threshold, but it's a bit far fetched to say he's completely done. From an NFL team's perspective I'm also not sure why you wouldn't try to sign Dez to a 1-year prove-it deal, if you're in search of WR help. I'm not sure anyone has established what his demands are for a 1-year deal, but it's seems like a pretty low risk, high reward proposition. As a team you'd have a relatively low investment made in him, so if he is really bad you cut him, if he's just OK then you're not tied to him for high dollars for several years, and if he does great then everyone wins by the team getting a high end WR for cheap for a year, and Dez gets his big contract either there or somewhere else. Someone else I think mentioned Seattle, and that would seem like a perfect situation for everyone. Veteran coach, and a highly respected veteran leader QB, with some other strong locker room personalities that should be able to keep Dez in check if there are any attitude issues. Lining Dez up opposite Baldwin with Russell throwing him bombs you would think is a recipe for success. The O-line is still pretty rough so Russell will be scrambling and run game might not do so well, so giving Russell all the weapons they can would be a good idea. And the biggest thing for me is, how is Marshall signed by them and on a TC roster while Dez isn't? If you think Dez is a shell of his former self, then that would make Marshall a pile of dust blowing away in the wind. Dez would be motivated to prove it, and would have every opportunity with a great QB, and Carroll is likely somewhat coaching for his life with all of the subtractions from his SB team. Not to mention the star power of Dez might help bring back some fanfare and positivity to a team that has let some high profile star players walk recently.
  10. Keelan Cole 2018 Outlook

    The difference between Cole and most of those guys is that Cole has shown he can produce fantasy relevant numbers, when he has the targets. At this point in drafts when you're throwing darts that is generally your choices - guys who you strongly feel have the talent to succeed if they got playing time, but don't have anything guaranteed, versus guys that have a clearer path to PT but questionable how or if they will seize the opportunity. Without a crystal ball it's hard to say how things shake out, but I still like Cole's chances this year. Last season he had an overall snap count of around 66% for the year, with a lot more snaps coming later in the season and few early, and in those final few games he was WR5 in PPR. And that was with very good YPR and YAC numbers that show it wasn't just volume or fluke. And is the competition really that stiff for Cole? Moncrief has been hyped for years in Indy as a potential breakout player, and has had all the opportunities in the world, but still hasn't proven anything. Lee has been OK as a starting WR, but just OK - even given WR1 targets the last year he wasn't really able to stand out. He profiles more as a slot guy and will be playing there on 3-WR sets, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets jumped over on the depth chart by both Cole and Moncrief. Lee has also been one of the league's worst pass droppers, and dropped one in their last preseason game as well. There are a lot of names in competition in Jax, but the names aren't exactly daunting IMO. The whole reason it seems like more of an open competition is because there are no clear cut #1/2 WR's on the team, so to me that means Cole has a pretty good chance of winning himself PT.
  11. 2018 Draft Strategy

    I ended up doing something similarly, without having planned it out on purpose, and the reason it happened that way was similar to your thinking - when I was looking at early-mid round WRs I kept thinking "these guys aren't much better than those a round or two later". No keepers, but I started off the draft with Gurley, Howard, Freeman (RB, RB, Flex spots). Then at 48/49 I wasn't blown away by the WR options so I went Watson and Brandin Cooks (only WR I liked at that spot). Then coming back around I was thinking I had to go WR/WR, but again the options were lackluster and Greg Olsen was still there. So basically I ended up with 3 RBs I think could be RB1s this year, Watson at QB, Olsen at TE, and the a WR group of Cooks, Goodwin, Hurns, Keelan Cole, Enunwa, Dez, etc. Obviously the season has started yet so hard to say how smart it was, but I feel pretty smart if that helps at all. I sure won't hesitate to do something similar in future drafts. But as the other poster pointed out, this was more the result of taking BPA/what was left for me than a solid and rigid plan. At 24/25 I was surprised both Howard and Freeman were there so I took them. At 48 I was surprised Watson was there. At 72 I was surprised Olsen was there. I'm sure I'd feel just as good about the team if it were WRs falling to me that I didn't expect to be there, but I just took advantage where I could.
  12. Corey Clement 2018 Outlook

    Do we really need half a page of posts arguing the semantics of "must own"? FWIW common sense would tell you that "must own" and "should be 100% drafted in all leagues" would mean the same thing. But we get it - Ajayi isn't a player that excites to the point of you feeling you need to have him. That said, there should be enough rushing stats on this team to make at least one RB a decent play all year.
  13. Orleans Darkwa 2018 Outlook

    Is there anywhere Darkwa could step into being a guaranteed starter? Washington right now seems like about his best shot. I guess other than that, just waiting around for more injuries?
  14. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    I think you're really misinterpreting or exaggerating how I feel about Carson - I've never said he's going to tear the world apart. I'm not advocating anyone takes him in the 5th round. My whole point has been that once you get past the surefire starting RBs, Carson is worth as much of a chance as anyone. We know he'll be getting his shot, and if he excels then you win big time. Think like round 7 territory, where you have Crowell, Duke Johnson, Marlon Mack, etc as your other options. I'm taking Carson there. If you want to talk band wagon and over drafting, let's talk about Penny being a 5th rounder in fantasy based solely on the hopes and dreams that the Hawks will play their 1st rounder. That's a lot of people's RB2 and they have no idea if he'll play, if he can play, or if he's healthy.
  15. Brandin Cooks 2018 Outlook

    It's $50 million guaranteed from all the sources I'm seeing: https://www.google.ca/amp/s/theramswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/24/nfl-los-angeles-rams-brandin-cooks-contract-salary-cap/amp/ Also what are you basing your statements that Goff loves Kupp and he loves Woods on? They all had 1 season together, and they were the only decent passing options he had, so of course he "loved them" last year. Woods more or less became Goff's defacto WR1 because he was essentially the only option. Watkins came in late and couldn't learn the plays. Kupp and Goff had a good connection but he's still the slot guy at the end of the day. I'm not saying Woods stinks, but he's always seemed more like a high end WR2 / complimentary guy on a good team. I'm just not sure we can say Woods is Goff's fave after one year with no real competition. McVay stood up and said Cooks was who he wanted to management, they dealt big time draft capital and huge guaranteed dollars on him, he has been a consistent 1000 yard / 110+ target WR even in other crowded offenses. Lots of signs for me are pointing to Cooks having a very nice year.