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About daynlokki

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  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Well of course not, his average is already down to like .515 lol. It's called confirmation bias on a small sample size... Notice you didn't bring up the fact that he has exactly zero HRs there as well.
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Take the AFL with a grain of salt, there are like 3 people on his team currently hitting over .400. His team isn't even the top hitting team in the league. They are about 20 points behind Peoria, and 6 HRs behind Mesa. Look at the pitchers he is facing, the talent level is about AA.
  3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    So you are using a picture that shows he somehow hit 200 HRs as a citation? Ya, makes sense to me.
  4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Using a stat where they base it off standard deviations from the mean, and have ONE stat that can skew so much more than any other is a flawed concept. SB is flawed for PR. in 2014, Dee Gordon scored 7.52 points on the ESPN PR just from SBs. The leader overall that year for points was 14... half his value was purely from SB. Nobody got into the 4s for RBI, R, AVG or HR, THAT'S why it's skewed and wrong as a datapoint.
  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    What I'm 'on about' is using flawed data to support your argument. 90% of fantasy users don't use PR and the people who use it to try and get more value for players in trades get laughed at. It is one of MANY different data points you should use in CONJUNCTION with each other, otherwise it's flawed. Ken Rosenthal laughs at the overall use of PR on ESPN lol. Did you know their standard deviation for average is 50 points?
  6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    [ ED NOTE: 4 rapid-fire comments merged. @daynlokki, this is my final warning about rapid-fire posting. Take some time to make your points in a single post or you're going to get a timeout. ] OK here we go. If the positions grade out about equally in roto and one position comes with a 20% disadvantage, wouldn't that position then be considered deeper overall? Even more fun, take out SB and tell me how close those positions are since that would be a better gauge overall since it takes out a skewed stat. If you wanna keep it in, then know you will need to downgrade Vlad, he won't be running in the majors at all IMO. He doesn't have the feel or the speed on the basepaths. As a 3b without speed, using the ESPN PR, he's middling at his position as his power stroke isn't there yet either. He's probably around a cap of 25 HRs this first year, if that. He hasn't hit one in the AFL yet, despite an average over .500 and extreme hitter-friendly parks. In fact, in 5x5 with the Blue Jays being a bottom tier offense WITH him, you also need to reign in his RBI and R production too, which would lower him even farther.
  7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    So what you are saying is that 5 categories, 1 of which is skewed GREATLY for 3b compared to 1b (SB) is enough for you to say whether a player or position is good? In that case, there are way more 'good' SS then there are 3b, 1b, or 2b in the game currently. The fact is, Yahoo, ESPN, Fantrax and every cite use differing numbers for what to consider a standard deviation, and only putting forth ONE of those as support for an argument undercuts your argument as you are cutting out the majority of the rest. Would you make a research paper only using 25% of available data or would your professor called that flawed thought? Citing that your personal PR matches up with ESPN doesn't add anything to the argument either, I bet I could make a PR right now that would not, in any way, shape or form, match up and it would ALSO have zero bearing on any of this. Overall, 1b and 3b may have been a toss up, I posted the differences and the fact PR gives a large decrease for SB for pretty much all 1b. The fact is, any system that only has 5 data points will give you skewed ratings as it is. At least show me a PR that includes other major stats such as 2b, 3b, OBP, Slugging, something. You don't rate players on whether they are only good at HR, SB, AVR, RBI, and R when 1 of those is extremely position dependent (almost no 1b get SB and so they get downgraded) and 2 of those are extremely team dependent. That creates false correlation and you would be fired from any scientific job if you tried to base conclusions off of data such as that. Which makes the data unreliable in more than a cursory examination.
  8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Again, read previous entries. Someone posted Fangraphs ZIPS, I countered with another site using supposedly the same algorithm with completely different results. If nothing else, that should give you a little bit of pause to look farther instead of just citing the same projection from Fangraphs again. With Snider, you know what he even said most affected his ability in the majors? Being rushed. He was in rookie ball in 2006 and got his first cup of coffee in 2008, even hitting over .300 during it. In an interview, he stated that he felt like he NEEDED to have big numbers at the major league level in order to help his team. This isn't the first player in the Blue Jays organization to say similar things. I only went with the two hitters off the top of my head but you could add in Drabek too, who projectionists LOVED from the minors. Who are you going with for your MiLB player of the year? Last year, Baseball-America had Acuna as the winner, not Vlad. They also had Moncada win it the year before showing that it doesn't necessarily mean success at the MLB level. Wasn't USA Today either as they ALSO had Acuna in 2017, so without a citation you are just spewing nonsense which hurts your overall message. As they say in debate, if one of your facts are wrong, they are ALL wrong. Also from the ZIPS you keep bringing up: 'There’s no guarantee for Guerrero — skewness of risk essentially means there are a lot more things that could make him fall short than exceed his projections.' He also goes on to say in Trout's rookie year he was off on his projection by 6 WAR... 6... This last year, his projections had Alford as the 2nd best Toronto outfielder.
  9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    ESPN actually had a big snafu about the positional bias a few years back and had to change their algorithm for PR. I've gone rounds with ESPN personalities over this in many fantasy leagues. If the analysts who work FOR ESPN refuse to use PR that should tell you all you need to know. So did Robbie Grossman lol. Go through the posts, I've already said his offense is already MLB ready, albeit you have to take MiLB numbers with a grain of salt. Full redraft, he's maybe a 6th or 7th rounder for me. He could be up early enough to make his value more, but he also could be kept down longer (I hope he isn't). Dynasty we all know he is going to be a top 10 pick and I won't pick him there for the same reason I never draft Bryce Harper. Too many questions. As a 1b his value drops even farther. Top 1b is probably Freeman and he usually isn't going in the first round or two. Value wise overall, incorporating age into the discussion for a dynasty his overall value is probably closer to around 20ish. I'd rather have Soto and Acuna personally as I've already seen them handle MLB pitching and have to make those adjustments. Not really, someone posted Fangraphs ZIPS projection earlier stating it was the highest ever. Well, it's weird that ZIPS for another site has him so low. Seems like a bias on one or both sites.
  10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    What if I told you every single 5x5 player rarer from all the main sites were different. Think about that for a second. You are making an argument about a position based off one set of flawed statistics. Yet all those main sites use the same 5x5 for standard categories... How exactly is that data reliable when it is different on different sites even though the stats are the EXACT same. Fangraphs even wrote about this about 10 years ago. Each site uses different stats for a standard deviation which leads to a large difference. Yet you think the 5x5 ESPN is the gospel. Espn isn't even the leader in fantasy sports anymore after their changes the last few years. 10 leagues I was in between all sports left espn for different sites lol.
  11. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    If you use standard PR for who does and does not have value, then I know why you have the viewpoints you do.
  12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Well, a standard league is also a redraft, so you accounting for that in your stats? He drops WAAAAAAAY down in a redraft league. Majority of leagues you see nowadays aren't 5x5 anyways. So to only use those 5 stats would be a straw man argument.
  13. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Also, using LOL or LMAO doesn't detract a thing. That'd be like saying you reacting to my posts detracts from yours... it doesn't and is in essence the exact... same... thing...
  14. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Basing someone's value off 5 total categories is asinine. Also, by using that you are falling for confirmation bias. PR on ESPN is also horrendously flawed. There was a post awhile back about how a player with the same stats at two different positions got a different rating, even though it's ONLY supposed to be based of those 5 starting categories.
  15. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Also, if you want a laugh, look at the ZIPS projections for 2019 for Vlad on rotochamp. 453 abs, 60 runs, 14 hrs, 60 rbis, 8 sb (how?), .247 average, .320 obp, .400 slugging. It's weird that fangraphs and their ZIPS projection is completely and totally different.