daynlokki

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  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Soto came up because the Nats needed him. They were still in the hunt and they didn't want to start Stevenson every day, which was the only other OF they could have gone with considering they had about 5 injuries. Vlad doesn't need to be rushed like that. 95% of the time, rushed prospects turn into complete crap because they get flustered. Happens every single year.
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    His GO to AO average in AAA is 1.57 currently. That's NOT crushing the ball, that's a ton of grounders, which is what his profile is currently. BABIP is down to .327 as well for AAA, which is much closer to the MLB average. He's not fleet of foot and while it could be inflated a bit because he does hit the ball hard, the BABIP from AA would have him only 30 points in the MLB lead over Judge, he doesn't hit it THAT hard. Fangraphs currently has him at a 50.9% GB and 22.6% FB rate in AAA as well. All that screams that his BABIP should have dipped like it did.
  3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Read previous posts. Where it is discussed how difficult it is to bring in FAs to Toronto. That's why they are keeping him down, because he most likely will NOT sign an extension with Toronto. If he came up now, he'd also be Super Two and gain an extra year of arbitration. His peripherals don't scream that he must come up. His HR % per fly ball is outrageously high. His BABIP is also ridiculously high. Even in comparison to previous seasons he has had. With an average BABIP he's about a .290 average with about 20 hrs. Not a good enough reason to rush him like Minny rushed Buxton or Moncada was rushed. Both were sure things and now they look like crap.
  4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    State income tax? It's the income tax for the country of CANADA and the province of ONTARIO is what hits the Blue Jays for free agents. Canada taxes everything over 200k at about 33% and then Ontario taxes an ADDITIONAL 12%. Ya, being taxed 45% of your wages has absolutely nothing to do with a free agent deciding where he plays. Whereas Seattle only would tax 37%. That's only 8 cents on the dollar difference in take home. Nah, you're right, absolutely nobody does that when there have been multiple stories about it.
  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Yes the Jays overall are bad at defense... their starting 3B Donaldson is not and hasn't been able to play yet. You keep bringing up money and control, it's not JUST those two things. He's not on the 40 man so they would have to cut someone. His defense is atrocious at a premium defensive position. They want to keep who they have in the majors because waiver trades are still a thing and they want to get some value from them (they are praying Donaldson looks healthy and good when he comes back). Yes, control matters for a smaller market team and the Jays are really that. It's also very hard for them to get extensions because of the taxes up there. Many players don't want to extend and then pay an extra 10% or so in taxes because they are in Canada compared to a state like Washington with no state income taxes. He's just not ready. That AA stadium is like Reading, take the stats with a huge frickin grain of salt. They have 3 of the top 15 current league leaders in average for the Eastern League, that's without Vlad. You can't just look at his average and be like, yup, he needs to be up. Minor league stats are against minor league players, there IS a jump to the majors otherwise Buxton would have also been a batting god with his AA numbers in the Eastern league.
  6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    If you look at balls in play, the player he matches up with best is Nimmo. 17% HR/FB compared to 18% for Nimmo, 38% FB rate is the same as Nimmos, LD rate is about 3% higher for Vlad. If you seriously think his AA stats shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt, realize that per park factors, NH is one of the most offensive-friendly stadiums in AA. 2 of the top 5 and 3 of the top 15 averages in the Eastern league are from NH. That's with Vlad not in the standings... that team even makes Cavan Biggio look like he could actually make the majors.
  7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Most major league 3b would have made this play without having to do the slide. His range is an issue
  8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    I think he's a .286 hitter because while his hit tool is projected at an 80 it's currently at around 50. As per my post above this if he were in the majors, he would have the 11th worst infield flyball rate, his hr/fb rate is average, his 38% FB rate is average and his 22% line drive rate would tie him with Wendle, Profar and Semien... His BABIP is closer to league average and with him being a plodder that's where he is going to most likely be.
  9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    This is just untrue. First of all BABIP is really most useful to look for normalization over career norms, but in a vacuum there are SEVERAL factors that can contribute to it. Yeah speed is one, but I assume you're ignoring that players with power (usually ones with good contact skills) can also maintain elevated BABIP because it blows up your point. Judge, Stanton, Martinez and Freeman are all top 10 in BABIP this year and they do it by making a lot of good hard contact. Again looking at a snapshot in time without career numbers is short sighted, however you could easily make an argument that a prospect with an ELITE batters eye (we're talking one of the best we've EVER seen) and 65-70 grade power is likely to maintain an above average one. Arguing against the guys hitting at this point is just plain silly at this point. It's not just his AVG it's the scouting reports, OPS, BB/K which show he's a special talent. 22% LD rate is good, but not top tier for even the minors, fly ball rate of only 38% just shows an average homerun stroke. Infield fly rate of 17%! HR/FB rate of 17% as well is around average for the new ball. If you are wondering, that infield fly rate would have him as the 11th worst qualified major league batter. Totally screams that he's legit right now and most of his average is luck based.
  10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    You said benefit the team overall. Is he a big enough upgrade over Morales at DH to take a 16m loss and lose a year of control? Hell no. They aren't putting him in the field this season at the ML level over a long period of time. He would literally be the worst defensive infielder on the entire team. Blue Jays don't want him to turn into another Marcus Semien who was advanced offensively but lacked defensive chops. Now he is one of the worst defensive SS in the majors.
  11. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    The Blue Jays are out of the playoff race and you're expecting them to call up a teenager who cannot play defense in the minors to do what? Start over Morales and make the team eat the 16m or so left on his contract for a bench bat? Start at 3b over Drury/Solarte/Donaldson and make it so you cannot make a waiver trade on any of those players? When players play bad defense they don't stick long. He plays a premium defensive position and currently, there isn't anywhere else to play him outside of there. His average in the minors is amazing this year. That said, it IS fueled by luck to a high extent. His BABIP is over .400 in AA. The major league average is near .290. Most hitters over the ML average are guys with major speed. In AAA his BABIP has fallen to a more palatable .308. He now has a .286 average there. Small sample, but that's more of the type of hitter he is currently. His AA team have had a TON of ridiculously high BABIP's this season. Don't expect that to occur in the majors. Everyone keeps missing the point where the Blue Jays are one of the biggest teams for GB% from pitchers. You think Stroman wants even worse defense behind him? Defense does matter in baseball....
  12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Also, with Soto, it took about 3 OFs in front of him being injured for him to get the call. They didn't want to bring him up, but it's a tough sell to the fanbase saying that Andrew Stevenson would be a full time OF over Soto while they are in the playoff race... Blue Jays are 16 back of the last wild card. Don't think they are expecting playoffs so no reason to call up the best bat and lose him a season earlier...
  13. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Soto plays LF, probably the 2nd worst defensive position in baseball. 3B is one of the most important. They aren't calling him up to DH as at that point, his defense isn't going to get any better. When he comes up, he will play and having him play now when the games don't matter is asinine. They have Morales at DH and want him to get a little bit of value so they can attempt to trade him. This is already a tough process considering Morales is still making around 4m this season and I believe 12m next. They aren't going to bench a commodity that they can possibly trade in order to start the clock on a prospect and lose a year of having him on the team. All these fans just want the Blue Jays to throw him to the wolves and get into his own head. All while they would end up having him for one less year of control.
  14. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Also, Vlad is NOT on the 40 man roster, they would have to lose a player to waivers to bring him up.
  15. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    The bat once again isn't the issue. The issue is his defense and the type of pitching they have. They don't have high strikeout guys. They have guys who put the ball in play and they call it the hot corner for a reason. Him getting a ton of errors and getting into his own head isn't going to do him any good. It will end up stunting his growth and could even cause him to press at the plate. Plus add in the roster crunch, they want time for Solarte, Drury, Diaz and then Donaldson as they want to do some waiver trades I'm sure.