• Announcements

    • tonycpsu

      Comments on New Forum Design (UPDATED with workarounds)   02/12/2019

      We are aware that the current layout of the Rotoworld forums is not going over well, and we feel your pain.  Please direct any comments about the new look of the forums to help@rotoworld.com, or to this thread. For those who are able to install user styles, (e.g. with the Stylish addon for Firefox or Chrome), you may wish to try a couple of user-created alternative styles. RW Forums Tweaks by tonycpsu Rotoworld Forums Dark Mode by sngehl01  

garlando

Members
  • Content count

    473
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    11

garlando last won the day on August 13 2018

garlando had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

1,225 Excellent

2 Followers

About garlando

  • Rank
    Veteran

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?
    No

Recent Profile Visitors

3,980 profile views
  1. Which Prospect should I draft?

    Garcia is okay but likely doesn't project to be a high-ceiling contributor thanks to high GB rates which limit his game power and just above-average speed that he hasn't used effectively on the bases. Contact skills look solid with a 14.9% strikeout rate and average 10.3% swinging-strike rate but that's essentially his only true valuable tool in 5x5 so I'd lean one of the other options. Drew Waters has been receiving a lot of hype, particularly over the off-season for his power/speed combo. Have seen some 60 hit/60 raw/60 speed scouting reports that have driven a lot of the hype. Did very well at Single-A Rome hitting .303/.353/.513 with 9 HRs and 20 SBs in 365 PAs. Pretty aggressive approach with a 5.8% walk rate along with a 19.7% strikeout rate. Doesn't get to all of his power right now due to a lower lying launch angle that is highlighted by a 51.5% GB rate at Single-A last year. Contact skills look to be about average to me to even a touch below, 11.5% swinging-strike rate is evidence. Essentially, he's extremely tooled up and should he continue to take strides forward, he could be a star. Edwards receives 70-80 speed grades on scouting reports and knows how to use it as he stole 22 bases in just 45 games in his professional debut last year. Combines plus contact skills (elite 4.7% swinging-strike rate at A- in a league mostly made up of college draftees) with an approach that has led to more walks than strikeouts is rare. I've seen the power get some 40 grades too so he shouldn't be a zero. Might end up in CF but he's going to be an up the middle defender for sure. Game-changing speed is always valuable in 5x5 and he has a good chance to bring that AVG/OBP and be a non-zero HR wise. Upside is a better Mallex Smith. Lavigne has a chance to be a top 100 prospect soon if he isn't considered one already. Big raw power (65 grade already and likely legit 70 grades are coming as he's still just 19) and he combines that with a plus approach and contact skills which is evidenced by more walks than strikeouts and a 7.8% swinging-strike rate respectively. He needs to learn to elevate more to get to his power but as a Northeast prep bat that didn't see very good competition in New Hampshire HS ball, he really impressed this past season and showed a special set of skills to project upon. Coors Field as his potential future home doesn't hurt either.
  2. Garrett Hampson 2019 Outlook

    His combination of contact skills + power + speed could make Hampson a consistent fantasy monster in the mold of a Lorenzo Cain type at 2B/SS or like a Jean Segura that walks more.
  3. Currently projected to be the favorite for the vacant 2B gig in Colorado, Hampson is a guy that offers a fantasy-friendly skill set with high-end contact skills, a touch of power, and terrific speed with the instincts to use it effectively. Is he an intriguing sleeper heading into next year? https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-garrett-hampson-the-future-fantasy-rock-star/
  4. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    So my process of putting together lists like this starts with me making a list of everyone that I think is worthy of consideration, and then I sort them which causes some guys to slide up or down. My initial list of players included all those guys you mentioned and they ended up falling out of the top 150 for various reasons. Pache fell because of the lack of fantasy production and how his peripherals suggested he's far away from reaching his ceiling (below-average contact skills including poor swinging-strike rates and poor approach, low launch angle which limits his game power, and his inefficiency on the bases that suggests that his instincts for stealing bases aren't there currently and will likely lead to mediocre SB totals. Better real-life prospect than fantasy). Rutherford has shown a low-launch angle (50%+ GB rates) which suggests mediocre power potential unless changes are made, and also hasn't shown great contact skills as his swinging-strike rates have been below-average the last 2 years, and he's not likely to return much SB value due to 50/45 speed grades and poor current efficiency on the bases which all screams mediocrity. Muller is interesting as a lefty with 3 average or better pitches which gives him a quality floor, but I question his upside some as he's battled inconsistent mechanics that has led to varying velocity numbers and shape on his breaking ball. His Changeup has reportedly taken steps forward but it's still just one above-average/plus pitch and that's more of a #4 in an MLB rotation sort of arm and I just think other guys on the list have shown more or have more upside. Knizer was the closest to making the list, and perhaps I've undervalued him slightly but I view him as a higher floor but mediocre upside sort of C. His contact skills are very good and what is going to carry him for sure! He has never posted a K% above 13.4% and consistently posted strong swinging-strike numbers including an 8.2% mark at AA and 5.4% at AAA during his small sample there. The approach gives me some pause though as he's not one to wait around for his pitch with just a 3.44 P/PA mark (for reference, that's less than notorious free-swingers Eddie Rosario, Adam Jones, and Javier Baez posted in the majors this year), and I think that along with a lower launch angle (46.9% GB rate at AA this year) will lead to him being a guy that under-performs power wise compared to his raw power potential. His .121 ISO at AA this year is a good example as it shows that while he made plenty of contact, it's not of great contact quality due to the approach. Add it all up and I think you have a guy that can produce something like .275/.325 with 10-15 HRs at the majors give or take with little to no speed upside and I think it's just an okay fantasy profile.
  5. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Yeah, I don't understand why he's on so few lists at this point! I do think we're starting to see a change in his perception recently I'll probably end up as one of the higher guys on Hampson. I just think his skillset is very fantasy friendly! First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS. Now I get the concern over playing time for Hampson, he’s going to have to fend off a few interesting and highly valued players in the organization like Brendan Rodgers, but I think Hampson will get the first chance as Rodgers looks to need a little more time in AAA currently. Hampson looks ready to be given a chance at 2B with DJ Lemahieu a likely goner in FA as he handled AAA well and even did well in the majors in a small sample size, and he could run with it if he proves himself capable. I also think there’s a good chance that Hampson gets an opportunity in the OF, particularly in CF as Charlie Blackmon is better off in a corner OF spot now and Cargo is likely gone as well. Dahl and Tapia both deserve to get their chance, but Dahl is likely a platoon option at this point: .234/.258/.438 line with an elevated K rate against lefties this year for a 68 wRC+ . 286/.346/.568 line against righties this year for a 123 wRC+ Career history is similar Interestingly, he’s been okay home against lefties riding a higher BAPIP but put up a -40 wRC+ on the road against lefties this year. Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. Interested to see how it all plays out next year!
  6. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Appreciate the kind words, and I wanted to mention that I appreciate your contributions to these forums as well! You're spot on with your scouting reports on Ruiz and Hernandez, and I'm not sure how much value I can add to this question. Ruiz is showing elite contact skills with sub-15% K rates throughout his minor league career including an incredible 8% mark at AA supported by a 6.8% swinging-strike rate which ranked 4th best in the Texas League this past year. All while being 4.8 years younger than league average this past year at AA and playing the game's most demanding position. He gets above-average raw power grades and his batted ball profile does suggest that he shouldn't have too much issue getting to it in game, and I think he will more frequently as he gets stronger with age. There's .280+ with 20 HR upside, and I think his contact skills make him a safe bet to return value. Hernandez is interesting and been a big riser this year! Contact skills look to be about average with swinging-strike rates between 10.4% and 11.4% during the last 3 years and his aggressiveness at the plate helps him post above-average K rates. He seems to be one that has made a swing-change this year as his GB rate fell by 8% and his FB rate increased by 10.9% which explains the power explosion this year. I think his focus on power and lack of patience may leave him more susceptible to upper-level pitching than Ruiz and therefore I think Hernadez is the riskier prospect to invest in at this point. Also, think name value means a lot for prospects, and with Ruiz's success at a young age, he's been ranked highly by scouting services and I think his value is higher in terms of trade value and so I think again it's safer to invest in him. Hope that helps!
  7. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Andres Gimenez is a guy I think I view as more of a high floor prospect rather than a high ceiling. Contact skills are quite solid highlighted by a 19.9% K rate supported by an 11.7% swinging-strike rate at Advanced-A and 14.4% K rate supported by an 11.2% swinging-strike rate (note that MLB average last year for swinging-strike% was 10.7%). His relative aggressiveness this year helps mitigate some of the swing and miss too, and when you add in that he was very young for both levels and you can start to project him to be an above-average to plus contact hitter. His overall upside is limited though due to below-average raw power along with a low launch angle that has resulted in a 51.5% GB rate at A+ and 60.5% GB rate at AA (for reference, just 19 players in the majors had a 50%+ GB rate last year). His speed is also projected to decrease as he ages with Fangraphs having a 55/50 grade on him which has me believing he won't be a big threat on the bases in the majors despite the 38 SBs this year (also solid but not great efficiency at 73%). A projection of .273/.336, 12 HRs, 13 SBs I think is reasonable which makes him a potential fantasy starter in 12 team leagues at SS but that's certainly a lower-end starting option. Waters if you all remember got some hype last off-season around these parts after a guy made a post claiming him to be the next Mike Trout or something. He may not be that sort of player when all is said and done but Waters does possess an impressive collection of tools including plus raw power, plus current speed, and plus arm. The question is mostly on the hit tool and approach as he's been fairly aggressive this past year at full-season ball and posted swinging-strike rates of 11.5% and then 15% at A and A+ respectively. He was certainly more challenged by A+ and perhaps slightly overmatched, but he was quite young for the level and so that's understandable. The other thing with him right now is that his GB rate is quite high with a 51.5% mark at Single-A and 47.2% mark at A+ which suggests that he may not get to all of his raw power until changes are made. He's young and talented and so he's certainly capable of making big gains, but he's still very much a project at the moment. He's a higher risk/higher reward type of prospect.
  8. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

    BBA talks about Nate Pearson in their latest podcast (https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/pro-podcast-vlad-jr-forrest-whitley-and-other-arizona-fall-league-notes/ @ 6:10-9:00) Pro Podcast: Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley And Other Arizona Fall League Notes According to Josh Norris: - Really good (Not quite Forrest Whitley level) - Touched 100 mph five times in AFL so far - Curve, Slider, Changeup require more finesse, but all have the potential to be 6/6 with more refinement - Must control the body more, must improve fastball command - Missed the year, but is the #2 pitcher prospect in the AFL - Floor: Dellin Betances, Ceiling: "something special"
  9. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Thanks for the kind words and I'm glad you agree with the list for the most part. So Joey Bart is certainly intriguing, power hitting catcher with above-average defensive grades that should mean he stays behind the plate. I feel like his ranking on lot of sites is based on his draft position rather than his tools and production. He did produce really well in low-A this past year after being drafted, but as a top SEC player, he arguably should have been expected to dominate that level (1.6 years older than league average). I'm also slightly concerned at the low walk rates that he posted as a professional, far lower than the 15.07% walk rate of his junior year at Georgia Tech. Interestingly, in his Freshman and Sophmore seasons in college, he didn't walk tons either so maybe that's more him rather than the patient Junior college hitter? I also couldn't help but notice his high GB rate as a professional that may limit his power somewhat but he did smash 13 HRs in 204 PAs (24.5 HR/FB%). He's also quite far away still from the majors and is doesn't show high-end contact skills and it all plays into a ranking outside the top 100 and #5 overall among catchers who have either shown more and/or are closer to the majors.
  10. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Good questions! Hunter Greene is sliding because of the elbow strain he suffered in August plus he's oddly been more hittable as a professional than expected, especially the fastball which we saw get tagged in the future's game this year. Still think there's a lot to like, he misses plenty of bats (crazy 30.3 K% supported by an above-average 12.8% swinging-strike rate), he shows pretty good control (7.8 BB%), he has a viable 3 pitch mix highlighted by a triple digits fastball, a slider that flashes plus occasionally, and changeup this is still raw but has already taken steps forward. Good news is, he's still just 19 and he has plenty of time to figure out his game. Fairly high risk given his hittability right now and the injury risk associated with throwing that hard that often but the upside is high too. McKay is a guy I struggle to rank properly because of the two-way play. I ranked him solely as a pitcher in these rankings, and so I will probably have him ranked lower than pretty well everyone at the moment. His two-way play has held him back in lower-levels longer than perhaps is normal for one of the top college arms, and I think that has led to him beating up on inferior competition thus far often. The pitching numbers are terrific though, really nice control, elite swinging-strike numbers, high GB rates, and a nice 4 pitch mix with a chance for all 4 of them to be above-average. My concern is that there's only 1 pitch expected to be plus, that is his curveball, and that's certainly not a bad thing, I just think that his success will be tested more as he moves up the ladder. Curious to see how he gets developed going forward. Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS. I've been kinda down on Brendan Rodgers overall but I still think he's a top 10 fantasy prospect. He is very aggressive at the plate, doesn't walk much, and his aggressiveness hides his average to below-average contact skills (below average 11.8% swinging-strike rate at AA and 11.1% in AAA). He has plenty of power though and I think Coors Field will help him fill any gaps in his offensive game. .280ish with 25 HRs and a hint of speed is a terrific value at SS or 2B and that's why he's still a top 10 prospect imo. Paddack has a chance to jump into that elite tier of SP prospects, he's just behind it imo because of some minor breaking ball consistency concerns. He's been able to dominate the lower-levels on the back of the fastball/changeup combo (Changeup is crazy good, receives 65-70 grades), but the curveball has needed to take a step forward and reports suggest it has turned into a 50-55 weapon. If that curveball ticks up again to 60+ or he adds another weapon, that will secure the jump into the #1 pitching prospect discussion.
  11. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    One of the best comments I've seen in a while! ahaha
  12. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    First off, sorry for the delay on the responses! Dealt with a combination of the flu and other deadlines to meet the last few days but I have the time now and I'll get to each question. Feel free for anyone to ask any further questions or share their comments if they have any! I appreciate the kind words Brock, thank you! We often discuss prospects and I respect your analysis and viewpoints too and I love that we often are able to find common ground! - Interesting to hear your thoughts on Austin Hays! He had such a great run at A+ and AA in 2017, but since his late-season promotion to the majors that year, he hasn't looked the same. I'm not ready to completely write him off yet despite his struggles in 2018 and the holes in his game that include his almost complete lack of patience. He's still got plus raw power, and his aggressiveness at the plate lowers his strikeout risk. It's sort of the Eddie Rosario-lite sort of profile if it clicks and he showed some signs of finding himself again late in the year. Post-all-star break at AA last year, he hit .273/.291/.535 which admittedly is a small sample size of 23 games, but it's something. If he continues to struggle, he'll fall off the list. In your Ottoneu scoring format, I think you are right to downgrade him but in standard 5x5 leagues, there's still a chance he's useful. - Luis Garcia of the Phillies is a guy I definitely considered and I actually made a note on my excel spreadsheet of pitching prospects (so out of position) to look deeper into his profile. He had a really promising debut in the GCL, hitting .369/.433/.488 with 1 HR and 12 SBs over 187 PAs. Supported it with a nice approach including an 8% walk rate, and showed high-end contact skills with an 11.2% strikeout rate and elite 7% swinging-strike rate (best in the GCL). The reasons he didn't make the list is the concern about future power potential (smaller build at 5 foot 11, 170 lbs and receives 35-40 future power grades), speed is plus but he wasn't terribly efficient on the bases in ROK ball yet (12 for 20), and he's still just 17 and so there's a lot of potential variance left in his profile. He may be another Andres Gimenez type, and that's a nice prospect but that's higher floor prospect rather than a high ceiling prospect and I think that a super far away mid-tier upside prospect isn't quite ready to land on top 150 lists. Good name to keep in mind though! - Alex Reyes is a guy with a ton of upside, but I think also carries a bunch of downside risk and I feel like I've baked that into his ranking. If you banking on him being a SP, know that he's now 2 years removed from starting consistently and has a lot of innings to build up. In that last exposure as a full-time starter (2016), he dealt with a bunch of command issues (11%+ walk rates). And while he looked terrific in his initial return from injury this year as a SP, remember that it was just a 5 game sample across 5 different levels. His upside is still one of the highest among prospect eligible pitchers with his elite 4 pitch mix, and I feel like I've shown that with his projections being among the very best among pitchers. Until he is able to prove healthy and capable though, I think he's ranked fairly. Just my opinion! - Honestly, I didn't think to include Willians Austudillo in my rankings and I think that's a very worthwhile shoutout of a missed player. He lacked prospect hype before receiving the call (also doesn't help that he was passed on by 3 other organizations and is 27), and so that likely led to me missing him in the rankings! He's definitely an intriguing option in dynasty leagues with his unique profile, especially those in standard leagues where his lack of patience doesn't mean much. He's going to have to hit and hit to remain valuable, and I think his contact suggest that he can! - I ended up adding Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jose Suarez as #'s 149 and 150 respectively after realizing that Willie Calhoun and Taylor Ward were no longer prospect eligible. Hayes is becoming more interesting as his minor league batted ball figures suggest that he's raised his launch angle. Even with that, reports suggest his power is strength related rather than bat speed, and that his bat speed isn't great and so I'm not sure how much power upside there is with him. His contact skills are very good though and he should be able to chip in on the bases. Mediocre overall fantasy profile imo but a safe bet to reach it. And you know I'm in on Mauricio! His upside is special with his bat speed and projectability (6 foot 3, 166 lbs). He hasn't shown enough to make the list yet but he's a candidate to do so in the future if he can turn that promise into production.
  13. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Thanks, @brockpapersizer for sharing the list, I appreciate it! I was the one that wrote the article, so if you guys have any questions or comments on any of the rankings I'd be happy to answer!
  14. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

    You got your wish!