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garlando last won the day on March 20

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  1. Mid Season Prospect Rankings Watch

    Like others have mentioned, lots are already out and more are still to come! Fangraphs is out, Baseball America updates monthly, MLB Prospect watch updates monthly slightly but will do a big update with recent MLB draftees at some point, Razzball and Baseball Prospectus will have theirs out sometime soon I would think, Pitcher List has been releasing positional lists all last week and will do a top 150 bats and top 150 arms which come out this week. There are lots more publications too! Here are two I've found on Reddit fairly recently:
  2. Jesse Winker 2018 Outlook

    Jesse Winker is a guy that I feel deserves more attention for what he has done, and very likely deserves to be owned far more than the 10% he currently is on ESPN. A former highly regarded prospect, peaking at 27th best according to MLB Prospect watch back in 2015. He's now 24 and further removed from a wrist injury that wasn't helping him reach his power potential. Currently, he's hitting .277/.391/.403 with 6 HRs and 0 SBs and is supporting that with an impressive 15.1% walk rate and 14% K rate. Overall he's been worth a very solid 119 wRC+. The lack of power and speed may not look enticing for fantasy baseball purposes, but under the hood he stands out: - Again he walks more than he strikes out which is amazing considering his MLB experience level. - He has elite plate discipline metrics including a 5.7% swinging-strike rate (MLB average is 10.7% this year) and a 92.1% Z-Contact rate (MLB average is 85.5% this year). - He currently has a 44% Hard contact rate which ranks 23rd best in the majors ahead of names like Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts and Nolan Arenado and Giancarlo Stanton - He currently has a 13% soft contact which ranks 25th best in the majors. - He currently has an above-average 90 MPH avg exit velocity which ranks in a tie for 82nd best with Anthony Rizzo, Yonder Alonso, Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Hicks, and Yan Gomes and ranks ahead of names like Freddie Freeman, Carlos Correa, Rhys Hoskins. - His launch angle is pretty solid too with a 24% LD rate, 41.3% GB rate, 34.7% FB rate. There's more power to get with more flyballs but he's not pounding the ball into the ground consistently like Eric Hosmer. - Uses the whole field well which helps him support a quality BAPIP. - xBA of .281 and xSLG of .475 compared to his actual BA of .277 and actual SLG of .403 suggests that he may regress positively to the mean going forward. I think he's a guy worth picking up in most leagues, like 12 team leagues and above as I think he could be a nice 2nd half value. Put him on your radars at least!
  3. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    Another name for you guys today, Edgar Arredondo of the Texas Rangers organization. He's a 21-year-old pitcher that just got promoted to AA after dominating the Carolina League (A+) as youngest pitchers in the league (3rd youngest overall among pitchers with at least 50 IP). He was an international amateur signing out of Mexico in 2013 after becoming the youngest player to debut in the storied history of the Mexican League when he pitched for Quintana Roo at the age of 15. Despite that, he seems to be flying under the radar as he's not yet been considered among the top 30 prospects in the Rangers system by any publication which makes him a prime candidate for you all you all to potentially pick him up for free before the hype catches up. At advanced-A ball on the season, Arredondo has posted a 2.88 ERA with 68 strikeouts against just 11 walks in 59.1 innings pitched. That's a 10.31 K/9, a 1.67 BB/9 which is a very impressive combination of swing and miss stuff and control. His 2.93 FIP and 2.79 xFIP both rank top 5 in the Carolina League and suggest that he his performance to date has been legit rather than luck based. His 13.5% swinging-strike is well above-average (for reference, MLB average this year is currently 10.7%) and ranks 13th best in the Carolina League. He was named to the Carolina All-star Game and did well there too. Remember that he's doing all of this while being one of the youngest pitchers in the entire league! Regarding his scouting report, he reportedly throws a fastball that now sits 91-94mph and he locates it well all around the zone, he also has a mid 70's curveball that he uses as his out pitch along with a slider that he introduced in the 2nd half of last year. In addition, he also throws a changeup and I've heard that it's been the biggest growth for him as it has progressed from a fringey offering to a real plus weapon. That gives him a 4 pitch repertoire and along with above-average to plus command and you have the look of a very interesting SP prospect that most people haven't even heard of. Here's a nice example of him working outside to set up the inside pitch for the K: He is now at AA after receiving a promotion after the Carolina League All-star game, and had his start last Friday where he went 5 innings, giving up just 1 hit and 2 ERs, and striking out 3 against 2 walks. I think he's a very interesting prospect in deeper dynasty leagues that is showing a lot of interesting skills and he should be on more radars than he is!
  4. Eric Pardinho - SP TOR

    Just to add onto the info on his first professional start in the minors, Pardinho was reportedly up to 97 MPH throughout. Rare to see a 17-year-old with that much velocity already. Considered by MLB Prospect Watch to be the top pitcher in last year's international amateur class, Pardinho's Curveball is well liked receiving a 60 grade calling it a "swing and miss offering" and his changeup received a 50 grade along with 55 control. He's super far away and so much of his future value depends on his development going forward but the necessary ingredients to be successful are reportedly here. If you're willing to take a risk in a very deep league dynasty, might be worth getting on the train early while the cost is low.
  5. Rafael Devers 2018 Outlook

    It's from a couple days ago but Devers has hits in 7 consecutive games now including a HR yesterday.
  6. Juan Soto 2018 Outlook

    Here is a list of the top teenage hitters to reach the major leagues over the last 40 years: Name PAs AVG OBP SLG BB% K% wOBA wRC+ Juan Soto 61 .346 .443 .538 14.8 14.8 .419 172 Bryce Harper 597 .270 .340 .477 9.4 20.1 .352 121 Edgar Renteria 471 .309 .358 .399 7 14.4 .338 106 Ken Griffey Jr. 506 .264 .329 .420 8.7 16.4 .333 106 Manny Machado 202 .262 .294 .445 4.5 18.8 .317 98 Gary Sheffield 89 .238 .295 .400 7.9 7.9 .313 95 Melvin Upton Jr. 177 .258 .324 .409 8.5 26 .320 91 Mike Trout 135 .220 .281 .390 6.7 22.2 .296 87 Andrew Jones 113 .217 .265 .443 6.2 25.7 .303 79 Adrian Beltre 214 .215 .278 .369 6.5 17.3 .287 75 Ivan Rodriguez 288 .264 .276 .354 1.7 14.6 .282 73 Alex Rodriguez 208 .224 .257 .352 4.3 29.8 .268 54 Justin Upton 152 .221 .283 .364 7.2 24.3 .274 53 Small sample size yes, but still super impressive debut to date for Juan Soto as he's in a clear class of his own against some mighty competition.
  7. Alex Reyes 2018 Outlook

    Here's a great gif breakdown of Alex Reyes' start today:
  8. 2018 MLB Draft Prospects

    With the MLB draft beginning on Monday, I updated my google doc with draft-eligible college player stats. I've included all the names on's Prospect Watch Top 200 draft prospects that play in college, and I've added their pitching and hitting stats so that it's easy to compare! It's not super in-depth, but it may help get a sense what the incoming prospects from the draft look like statistically for fantasy purposes.
  9. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    Which Nationals SS? Luis Garcia or Yasel Antuna the two with the most hype! And is the Cardinals 3B Elehuris Montero? He's caught my eye and I've seen a couple sources are high on his future potential.
  10. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    I would add Alexander Canario of the Giants organization to that list, I made a post on him earlier in this thread and made a thread on him here too. Nice combo of raw power and contact skills with speed, well-rounded guy with a very high upside! Another name is Lolo Sanchez who impressed me last year, but hasn't been as successful this year in the SAL league. He's still showing good contact skills (9.8% swinging-strike rate) and speed but isn't hitting for much power. He's recovering from a brutal start to the season and is now finding his game in May. Jonathan Arauz and Freudis Nova are also interesting from the Astros organization too as up the middle talents, Arauz being polished and performing really well in A-ball as a 19 year old and Nova being a high upside guy with massive tools earning comps to Hanley Ramirez.
  11. Danny Jansen - C TOR

    There's some speculation among Jays fans that the team is looking to make Russell Martin more versatile and turn him into a bit of a utility player so that the team can work Danny Jansen into the MLB lineup in the 2nd half of this year and next (Martin has one more year on his contract after this year).
  12. Danny Jansen - C TOR

    @tucker26 I thought I'd answer your question about Jansen and how he projects. When I did my top 100 fantasy prospect list at the end of spring training, I projected Jansen for a .276/.365, 15 HRs, 1 SB line as a rough prime projection but what he's doing this year has me wanting to project more. He’s currently hitting .310/.417/.474 with 2 HRs and 4 SBs in 140 PAs. He’s striking out as often as he’s walking with 17 walks against 17 strikeouts, and that along with a really impressive 4.4% swinging-strike rate (MLB average is 10.6% this year) show the high quality of Jansen’s batting eye and contact skills. Overall he’s been worth a 157 wRC+ which is 2nd only to Zack Collins for the lead among all catchers in the entire minors and ranks 5th overall among all batters in the International League. The guys he most closely resembles imo are Buster Posey, Francisco Cervelli, and J.T. Realmuto. Here’s how they did in the minors at the same age and career MLB averages: Name BB% K% Swinging-Strike% ISO wRC+ Posey MLB 9.5% 12% 6.1% .164 134 Posey AAA (23 YO) 13.5% 14.4% 7.1% .203 156 Cervelli MLB 10.2% 18.4% 7.8% .109 107 Cervelli AAA (23 YO) 4% 17.3% 9.2% .116 92 Realmuto MLB 5.3% 17.5% 8.2% .154 105 Realmuto AA (23 YO) 9.7% 13.9% 8.4% .163 132 Jansen AAA (23 YO) 12.1% 12.1% 4.4% .164 157 As you can see, Jansen is showing better contact skills than all of them, and his ISO is comparable with both Posey and Realmuto at the same age. The result is he’s been the best in terms of wRC+ at 23 years of age. Jansen doesn't project to have the same sort of power upside as Posey did, but he's got average raw power and a mid-teens projection through peak is reasonable with an upside of 20ish HRs. This leads me to project Jansen pretty highly, and I think he’s an easy top 12 catcher in fantasy when he gets full-time at-bats. The upside is top 5 fantasy catcher imo. Also, @Fuzzy_Slippers yes that is me who wrote that article on Pitcher List.
  13. 2018 "Deep" Sleepers

    I have the same opinion as @JenksDodger on this one, there's a lot of factors that make his season to date look unsustainable going forward as a hitting prospect. First is the .475 BAPIP that's being propped up by a very high 27.9% line-drive rate. His strikeout and walk rates are both below-average, and that's supported by a below average 13.8% swinging-strike rate (MLB average this year is 10.6%). So the contact skills aren't very good, neither is his patience and then you add in his lack of power/speed and I'm not sure there's a lot of potential value in him fantasy wise. He's going to have to continue hitting lots to prove capable of making this sort of profile work, but at the moment I'm not very excited by him.
  14. Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Outlook

    Here is a list of the Blue Jays roster and their ROS Steamer projections: Donaldson 130wrc+**Guerrero 116wrc+**Smoak 110wrc+Grandy 105wrc+Pearce 105wrc+Solarte 104wrc+ Morales 99 wrc+Diaz 97wrc+Tulowitzki 97wrc+Martin 95wrc+Hernandez 94wrc+Grichuk 91wrc+Pillar 89wrc+**Jansen 89wrc+**Travis 88wrc+**Bichette 85wrc+****Pompey 81wrc+****Gurriel 80wrc+****Biggio 80wrc+**Urshela 75wrc+**Alford 67wrc+**Maile 66wrc+**Urena 60wrc+** Interesting to see Guerrero Jr. already projected to be the teams 2nd best hitter!