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garlando last won the day on March 20

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  1. Jose Suarez - SP LAA

    I've said this before, but height isn't a big deal for me as we have seen smaller starters succeed before. As long as he has the stuff and performs, I could care less about height. I'm still looking for the same thing that I always look for in pitching prospects which is multiple ways to get through a lineup. I'm a big believer in a true out pitch being necessary, and Suarez has that in his changeup and he's been getting lots of swings and misses with at a crazy 17.4% swinging-strike rate (MLB average right now is about 10.6%) at AA in 29.2 innings pitched! From there, 2 more 50-grade offerings with average command is probably a #4/#5. If it's plus command, you're probably looking at a #4 that will have his stretches looking like a legit #3. Everything sort of builds from there.
  2. Jose Suarez - SP LAA

    Not saying that he won't going forward, but scouting reports I've read suggest he's pretty maxed out physically. Here's the quote from Fangraphs: I'm projecting him in the mold of a Marco Estrada type guy except groundball oriented rather than flyball...but the repertoire seems awfully similar.
  3. Jose Suarez - SP LAA

    The difference is the quality of the whole repertoire, simply taking a look at scouting reports tells you that Paddack is a step ahead of Suarez: Fastball: Suarez sits 91, will touch 93. Paddack sits 92-95 Curveball: Suarez has a humpback curve that is fringey and projects to average, Paddack has improved his curve as it has more depth and bite and Fangraphs has it projected for a future 55. Changeup: Suarez has a good changeup that fools hitters with a convincing arm action and release point that is super similar to his fastball and it projects to a future 60. Paddack's changeup has a convincing arm action and great tumble and it routinely gets 65-70 future grades. Add in similar command and they look similar but there's a clear level above that Paddack is projected to reach according to scouting reports. @brockpapersizer asked me about him earlier in the season to get my take, and so I thought I'd share what I wrote:
  4. 2018 Call Up Watch Thread

  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    So according to Baseball Prospectus, Vladdy Jr. has a 3.1 WARP (their definition of WAR and Prospectus' attempt at capturing a player' total value. This means considering playing time, position, batting, baserunning, and defense for batters, and role, innings pitched, and quality of performance for pitchers) The 3.1 WARP figure is being brought down a bit by a -1.7 Fielding rating (which is actually not all that bad considering some of the reports we've heard). To provide further context, the prospect with arguably the best performance so far this year, Juan Soto, accrued 3.9 WARP prior to his call-up on the weekend.
  6. Alex Bregman 2018 Outlook

    Mostly Fangraphs and Baseball Savant for hitters. Mostly Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball for pitchers. Definitely recommend them all! is also helpful!
  7. 2018 Call Up Watch Thread

  8. Alex Bregman 2018 Outlook

    Bregman may be a very good buy-low in your league if you have a potentially frustrated owner. Pretty well all of his peripherals are better than last year, and yet he’s providing mediocre value fantasy wise…that makes it highly likely that he’s due for some positive regression going forward. Here’s what I’ve found: 14% Walk rate this year, was 8.8% last year 11.1% strikeout rate this year, was 15.5% last year .283 BAPIP this year, was .311 last year 24.8% Line-drive rate this year, was 21.7% last year 37.6% Ground-ball rate this year, was 38.4% last year 37.6% Fly-ball rate this year, was 39.9% last year 13.2% infield-flyball rate this year, was 16.7% last year 37.6% Hard Contact this year, was 33% last year 17% Soft Contact this year, was 18% last year 89.2 MPH average exit velocity this year, was 87.5 MPH last year So he’s walking more, striking out less which is really good! He’s hitting a few more line-drives at the expense of a few flyballs which in theory should help his BAPIP as flyballs are more likely to be turned into outs compared to line-drives. He’s cut his infield flyball rate a lot which was a problem for him as he was the 7th worst in baseball and is now tied for 44th worst. He’s hitting the ball harder, and more consistently harder. Yet his BAPIP is a career low…seems like some potential bad luck IMO. Let’s take a look at his plate discipline metrics! Out-of-zone swing% was 25.8% last year, is now 19%. MLB average is 29.8% Zone swing % was 66.4% last year, is now 63.8%. MLB average is 66.7% Overall swing % was 44.8% last year, is now 37.7%. MLB average is 45.8% Out-of-zone contact % was 75% last year, was 84.2%. MLB average is 62.4% Zone contact% was 90.5% last year, is now 88.8% MLB average is 85.2% Overall contact rate was 85.7% last year, is now 87.5% MLB average is 76.8% % of pitches seen inside the strike-zone was 46.7% last year, is now 41.7% MLB average is 43.2% Swinging-strike% was 6.4%, is now 4.7% MLB average is 10.6% He looks fantastic under the hood! He’s showing a terrific eye at the plate as he’s swinging at pitches outside the zone far less than MLB average. His plus contact skills are showing as all of his contact metrics are well above-average. There’s really no weakness in his plate discipline metrics, and that’s super impressive considering that he’s just 24 years old still. Overall, I think it’s looking like Bregman is a terrific hitter that is getting hurt by poor BAPIP luck. Even Baseball Savant is suggesting that he’s been unlucky with an xAVG of .285 and xSLG of .504 compared to his real batting line of .259 batting average and .399 slugging%. This all has me believing that better numbers are ahead for Bregman, and why I feel he could be a decent buy-low option in redraft leagues if an owner is growing tired of him. Buy!
  9. Juan Soto-OF Nationals

    According to Ralph Lif****z of Razzball, yes!
  10. Sean Newcomb 2018 Outlook

    Here is an interesting article on Pitcher List about Newcomb's growing use of his changeup and how it's been a big part of his success so far:
  11. Alexander Canario - OF SF

    I made a post on him in the "deep sleepers" thread but felt like he may deserve more attention with a thread. A just turned 18-year-old, Alexander Canario (OF) of the Giants organization put up a .294/.391/.464 line in the DSL last year with 5 HRs and 18 SBs in 274 PAs. That came with very solid peripherals of 12 BB% and 14.6 K%. Ultimately he posted a 147 wRC+. What grabbed my attention was that KATOH on Fangraphs is really in on him, ranking him 33rd on the 2018 top 100 KATOH prospects list. That's a pretty big endorsement for the system to buy into Canario, especially for a guy that hasn't made it to full-season ball yet. He's listed at 6 foot 1, 165 lbs, so he's very projectable in terms of adding size and power in the future. He played mostly RF last year in the DSL, but did get 7 games in CF. He earned a trip to the DSL All-Star Game and took where he took home the MVP of the event. He also played last year as a very young 17-year old which made him one of the younger players in the league. Fangraphs just gave him future tool grades of 55 hit, 60 Raw, Current 55 run, 50 field, and 60 arm. That's an impressive collection of tools! They went on to say this about him: He's playing in extended spring training right now, and is expected to be named to short-season Low-A ball (which is where most college players generally start meaning he would be playing again far below the league average age) once that league gets going post MLB draft. He's a name to watch imo!
  12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Here is a list of top performances at AA in terms of wRC+ for 19-year-olds since Fangraphs has data (2006): Minimum 110 PAs * - Vlad Jr. – 209 (2018) - Jason Heyward – 190 (2009) - Ronald Acuna – 159 (2017) - Justin Upton – 158 (2007) - Mike Trout – 156 (2011) - Jesus Montero – 152 (2009) - Ozzie Albies – 148 (2016) - Roughned Odor – 147 (2013) - Jurickson Profar – 127 (2012) - Manny Machado – 120 (2012) - Giancarlo Stanton – 111 (2009) - Starlin Castro – 109 (2009) - Fernando Martinez – 107 (2008) - Ruben Tejada – 106 (2009) - Jake Bauers – 105 (2015) - Bryce Harper – 100 (2011) * 18 years-old - Fernando Tatis Jr. – 97 (2018) - Keibert Ruiz – 95 (2018) - Elvis Andrus – 93 (2008) - Jose Tabata – 93 (2008) - Freddie Freeman – 80 (2009) The only guys who come close from further back are: - Andrew Jones : .369/.432/.675 (1.107 OPS, .468 wOBA, 17BB\34K, 12 HR\12SB) - Adrian Beltre : .321/.411/.581 (.992 OPS, .421 wOBA, 39BB\37K, 13HR\20 SB) - Vlad Jr. : .405/.452/.667 (1.119 OPS, .483 wOBA, 13BB\13K, 6HR\0SB) The numbers above show that what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is doing in AA as a teenager is unprecedented.
  13. Ozzie Albies 2018 Outlook

  14. Found this on Reddit and thought it was interesting and worth discussing!
  15. Brusdar Graterol SP Min

    Graterol is one of my favorite young SP prospects in the minors (I ranked him 95th on my Spring-training top fantasy prospects list) as he's full of upside, and he's off to a strong start in 2018 in the Midwest League as a young for the level guy. Small sample size so far, but to start the year in 8.2 innings, he's got 11 K's against 0 walks, and 0 earned runs allowed. He's supported that line with a very strong 13.4% swinging-strike rate (MLB average last year was 10.5%) and a crazy 85.7% groundball rate. Obviously, the groundball rate isn't going to continue to be that high but Graterol has consistently generated very high GB rates and last year had a 58% GB rate split between 2 levels. The combination of high K stuff along with a high GB rate is the dream combo! Scouting report reads as follows: Mid-upper 90's fastball that can reach triple digits, a wipeout mid-high 80's slider that already flashes plus, and a changeup that he has a good feel for and most scouts project to average with Fangraphs giving it a future 60 grade. Some sources also suggest there is a curveball and it supposedly projects to above average. Fangraphs has him with a future 70 fastball, a future 60 slider, and a future 60 changeup with average command, that's a high ceiling player! In terms of ceiling, I think he has one of the higher ones in the minors among SP prospects, and if you're chasing that, he could be the guy for you! Could be a big breakout pitcher on prospect lists this year and a household name by next year!