garlando

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garlando last won the day on August 13

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  1. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

    You got your wish!
  2. Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Outlook

    Rebuild thoughts by position:C - Russell Martin and Danny Jansen should be a good combo next year, hopefully with Martin helping Jansen learn the finer defensive parts of the game. Reese McGuire should be ready for a backup role post 2019 when Martin comes off the books. Feel good about this position1B - Interested to see how next year shakes out with Smoak still under contract, Donaldson potentially coming back, Morales at DH, and Vladdy ready for the majors and up 3 weeks into next year. Vladdy Jr. will likely be moved here at some point, not sure when but that would likely be the long-term play. Also don't forget about Rowdy Tellez who could be the DH going forward! Short and long term I feel good about it2B - Next year, it's going to be Travis again and in theory, he should be backed up by Solarte/Gurriel/Urena etc. Long term, I think this may end up being the spot for Bichette since his fielding metrics including FRAA at SS this year have been below-average. They will likely continue to give him every chance at SS and may play him there breaking into the majors before sliding over. Biggio is an option here too but I think he may be an OFer long-term and that may be the organization's belief too as they are going to give him OF reps in the AFL. Some other lower level options too like Otto Lopez but overall I like where the org is at for 2B.SS - Short-term, this is probably Aledmys Diaz and whatever is left of Tulo's job to lose. Overall, probably the most concerning position in the infield for the Jays going forward. Bichette hasn't been a great defender in terms of FRAA, Logan Warmoth has been a disappointment, Santiago Espinal likely isn't a high ceiling player, and there's some lower level intriguing talent in Orelvis Martinez (probably a 3B profile) and Leonardo Jimenez among others but they aren't close to helping soon. Kevin Smith is probably the best option right now and he's had a breakout year, but I have some concern with the contact profile at A+ including the 24.2% strikeout rate supported by a below-average 15.4% swinging-strike rate. Small sample size yes and he's got time to figure things out. Love the power though, and if he can hit he would really solidify the position going forward.3B - Short-term, this will be a position with a stop-gap as I anticipate Vladdy Jr. getting the call 3 weeks into the season next year. That means that Brandon Drury likely is the opening day 3B next year. The initial play would be to keep Vladdy at 3rd as long as possible, but I think long-term he's a 1B and a guy like Jordan Groshans should be groomed to be the 3B of the future. Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo are also in that discussion for 3B of the long-term future and if all work out, some may have to move to the OF.LF - Short-term the org will give this to Teoscar Hernandez and hope he flourishes. He's got intriguing skills including a special ability to impact the ball, but his contact and patience skills need further refinement along with his D. My guess is he's not part of the long-long term plans but he's a good young placeholder and may just work his way into the plans with improvements. Cavan Biggio I think is a likely candidate here too where his defensive skills would play better (reports of him likely playing OF in the AFL this fall). Griffin Conine is an option too as is Forrest Wall and Jonathan Davis as likely 4th OFers and then the leftover players like Hiraldo and Martinez if they don't end up playing 3B. There may not be an Andrew Benintendi type of LFer here for the future, but I think it'll be fine. LF is an easy spot to fill.CF - The other weak point imo in the organization from a position player standpoint. You have Grichuk and Pillar short-term and my bet is Pillar's value is worth more to the team at this point than in a trade so he'll exhaust his team control with the org. Not opposed to moving either at all though! Anthony Alford is the next man up and he has trended down this year, but I'm not quite ready to give up on him as his tools are still there. Obviously, don't count on him being the guy and injury past doesn't help but he's worth more to the org now than his likely trade value and there's a non-zero chance he figures out his contact skills. Dalton Pompey seems to be out of the picture. Beyond that, it's kind of thin and I think this may be a spot of interest in terms of trade acquisitions (think Stroman/Sanchez deals?). Free agency is a bad bet for CFers as CF defense doesn't age well and you're largely getting end of peak or past peak players in FA. Bo Bichette could be a darkhorse potential CF option going forward where his athleticism may play well. It may be worth considering if they feel their MI depth is fine.RF - Short-term, this is probably Grichuk's to lose, with Billy McKinney being a low-end starter option in the event of a Pillar or Grichuk trade and Dwight Smith Jr. probably being a 4th OFer. RF has similar options going forward to LF with Griffin Conine, and then the leftovers of who doesn't play 3rd, likely Orelvis Martinez and Hiraldo. This could also be the spot where they look to acquire through trade their "Mitch Haniger" or "Ramon Laureano" whereby you find value from a team that can't keep all of their talent.SP - Easily the position the furthest away from being World Series viable. Love Stroman and Sanchez, both could be bridges to the future while offering strong upside if they are willing to re-sign here. I mentioned maybe moving one in the CF section above, and I wouldn't be opposed to it for the right deal. Sean Reid-Foley is the top upper level prospect arm, Boruki and Pannone should provide back-end rotation value and give the team innings, and you also have Zeuch who should be a back of the rotation guy too at AA. Pardinho and Pearson are the high-upside plays and I think we have reason to be excited about both. Hopefully they can help for 2021 forward when many of the team's prospects are ready. I generally value BPA in professional sports drafts, but a college starting pitcher would probably be ideal next year in the draft in the 1st round to supplement the many position prospects and enhance pitching depth with a target of competing in 2021 forward. SPing is also the spot where they can realistically spend the free agent $ that is coming off the books. Impact pitching should be a major focus!
  3. Dylan Cease - SP CHC

  4. Ramon Laureano 2018 Outlook

    Don't sleep on Ramon Laureano in deeper leagues, he's hammering the ball and has both power and speed! .280/.321/.491 line so far with 3 HRs and 3 SBs in just 56 PAs. 5.4% walk rate should rise as he's known for working deep counts and lots of walks as a minor leaguer. 32.1% K rate should probably come down too as he showed average contact skills in AAA this year with a 24.6% K rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. Known as a higher exit velocity guy that won best impact sound off the bat award at the Arizona Fall League 2 years ago. Crazy 2.9% soft contact rate right now, 51.1% Hard Contact rate supported by an above-average 90.6 MPH avg exit velocity. xBA of .285, xSLG of .526. Also a good defender which helps keep him in the lineup and an efficient base stealer. Remember him for next year!
  5. Wander Franco, SS, TB

    From Baseball Prospectus "Eyewitness Accounts": Hit Future Grade - 60 Power Future Grade - 60 Baserunning/Speed Grade - 50 Overall - 60: First-division SS, occasional all-star Link to article: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/42080/eyewitness-accounts-august-16-wander-franco-jared-kelenic/
  6. Tyler Glasnow 2018 Outlook

    Solid read on Glasnow and his changes since joining the Tampa Bay Rays: https://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-raise-your-tyler-glasnow/
  7. Elehuris Montero 3b STL

    MVP of the league while being 2.3 years younger than league average!
  8. Eloy Jimenez - OF CWS

    Best/notable AAA wRC+ from players aged 21 or younger with a minimum of 130 PAs since Fangraphs has data: Eloy Jimenez 196 – 2018 Travis Snider 186 – 2009 Melky Cabrera 180 – 2006 Jay Bruce 170 – 2008 Matt Kemp 164 - 2006 Brett Lawrie 163 – 2011 Ronald Acuna 162 – 2017 * 19 Mookie Betts 158 – 2014 Anthony Rizzo 152 – 2011 Adam Jones 144 - 2007 Freddie Freeman 141 – 2010 *20 Wil Myers 137 - 2012 Xander Bogaerts 133 -2013 * 20 Kyle Tucker 130 – 2018 Nick Castellanos 121 - 2013 Jake Bauers 120 – 2017 Jose Ramirez 119 - 2014 Francisco Lindor 118 -2015 Andrew McCutchen 115 - 2008 Austin Meadows 113 - 2016 Ozzie Albies 112 - 2017 Luis Urias 111 – 2018 Javier Baez 108 - 2014 Corey Seager 106 - 2015 Note that there are some guys in between Freddie Freeman and Seager on the list that didn't work out in the bigs and so I didn't include them. Just wanted to show some interesting names towards the bottom of the list.
  9. Peter Alonso 1b NYM

    Between that and a positive 1.8 Fielding Runs Above Average grade at both AA and AAA, I think we are moving past him being a DH prospect only. He's plenty fine at 1st and one of the best slugging prospects in the minors. Oh, and he hit another HR yesterday and is now up to 324/.387/.714 with 10 HRs last 26 games at AAA (post-all-star break).
  10. Touki Toussaint 2018 Outlook

  11. 2018 Sleepers

    Here is a good list from QB List that includes a bunch of sleeper picks and has some reasons why: https://football.pitcherlist.com/qb-list-staff-2018-fantasy-favorites/
  12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Here are the best qualified full-season level minor league seasons since Fangraphs started keeping track (2006): 1.Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 2018 (19, AA/AAA): 315 PAs, 209 wRC+ 2.Kevin Kouzmanoff - 2006 (24, AA/AAA): 391 PAs, 205 wRC+ 3.Chris Colabello - 2013 (29, AAA/AAA): 391 PAs, 196 wRC+ 4.Nathaniel Lowe - 2018 (22, A+/AA/AAA): 454 PAs, 193 wRC+ 5.Kris Bryant - 2014 (22, AA/AAA): 594 PAs, 192 wRC+ Also, note that Rays 1B prospect is on this list and should be getting more recognition for what he's done this year!
  13. Sam Darnold 2018 Outlook

    Rookie Review on Darnold: https://football.pitcherlist.com/rookie-review-sam-darnold/
  14. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Just wanted to reaffirm that Vladdy Jr. isn't being held back by his D. Not sure why it's being perpetuated (more than likely a combination of his size\build and out of date scouting reports). He's actually a positive defender at 3B in 2018 (1.2 Fielding Runs Above Average across AA\AAA), and essentially would be in line with what the Jays have gotten from Yangervis Solarte at 3B this year (i.e. ~flat FRAA, underwhelming range rating, positive error rate), save for the fact that he has a better arm and is far more athletic.Everything is ready for a callup. The only thing to wait for is the service time, which is perfectly acceptable given the state of the rest of the roster. Had they been in a hypothetical race for the second wild card (somehow without Donaldson), he would have been up. On a team that is going nowhere, there is no incentive for the organization to call him up and waste service time this year when they can get 7 years (6 years is standard team control over a player but if you call up a player shortly after the season starts, the team can gain an extra year since the player will have something like 5.89 years of service time by the beginning of the 6th year in the majors that he has played and to reach free agency, the player needs to cross the 6.00 years threshold). The reality is that Vladdy Jr. is being held back in the minors due to service time concerns and he will likely be on the Kris Bryant/Ronald Acuna timeline whereby they got called up a few weeks into the season which secured their organizations an extra year of control over the player.
  15. Elehuris Montero 3b STL

    Here is a list of the top players in terms of wRC+ in the Midwest League at 19 years of age and younger going as far back as Fangraphs has data (2006): - Jaff Decker – 169 (2009) - Eloy Jimenez – 162 (2016) - Elehuris Montero – 155 (2018) - Bobby Bradley – 153 (2015) - Fernando Tatis Jr. – 154 (2017) * 18 years old - Travis Snider – 151 (2007) - Carlos Correa – 147 (2013) * 18 years old - Miguel Sano – 146 (2012) - Luis Arraez – 146 (2016) - Jay Bruce – 145 (2006) - Cameron Maybin – 142 (2006) - Royce Lewis – 140 (2018) - Matt Davidson – 139 (2010) - Jesse Winker – 138 (2013) - Taylor Trammell – 131 (2017) - Jesus Sanchez – 130 (2017)