garlando

Members
  • Content count

    469
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    11

garlando last won the day on August 13

garlando had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

1,212 Excellent

2 Followers

About garlando

  • Rank
    Veteran

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?
    No

Recent Profile Visitors

3,574 profile views
  1. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Yeah, I don't understand why he's on so few lists at this point! I do think we're starting to see a change in his perception recently I'll probably end up as one of the higher guys on Hampson. I just think his skillset is very fantasy friendly! First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS. Now I get the concern over playing time for Hampson, he’s going to have to fend off a few interesting and highly valued players in the organization like Brendan Rodgers, but I think Hampson will get the first chance as Rodgers looks to need a little more time in AAA currently. Hampson looks ready to be given a chance at 2B with DJ Lemahieu a likely goner in FA as he handled AAA well and even did well in the majors in a small sample size, and he could run with it if he proves himself capable. I also think there’s a good chance that Hampson gets an opportunity in the OF, particularly in CF as Charlie Blackmon is better off in a corner OF spot now and Cargo is likely gone as well. Dahl and Tapia both deserve to get their chance, but Dahl is likely a platoon option at this point: .234/.258/.438 line with an elevated K rate against lefties this year for a 68 wRC+ . 286/.346/.568 line against righties this year for a 123 wRC+ Career history is similar Interestingly, he’s been okay home against lefties riding a higher BAPIP but put up a -40 wRC+ on the road against lefties this year. Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. Interested to see how it all plays out next year!
  2. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Appreciate the kind words, and I wanted to mention that I appreciate your contributions to these forums as well! You're spot on with your scouting reports on Ruiz and Hernandez, and I'm not sure how much value I can add to this question. Ruiz is showing elite contact skills with sub-15% K rates throughout his minor league career including an incredible 8% mark at AA supported by a 6.8% swinging-strike rate which ranked 4th best in the Texas League this past year. All while being 4.8 years younger than league average this past year at AA and playing the game's most demanding position. He gets above-average raw power grades and his batted ball profile does suggest that he shouldn't have too much issue getting to it in game, and I think he will more frequently as he gets stronger with age. There's .280+ with 20 HR upside, and I think his contact skills make him a safe bet to return value. Hernandez is interesting and been a big riser this year! Contact skills look to be about average with swinging-strike rates between 10.4% and 11.4% during the last 3 years and his aggressiveness at the plate helps him post above-average K rates. He seems to be one that has made a swing-change this year as his GB rate fell by 8% and his FB rate increased by 10.9% which explains the power explosion this year. I think his focus on power and lack of patience may leave him more susceptible to upper-level pitching than Ruiz and therefore I think Hernadez is the riskier prospect to invest in at this point. Also, think name value means a lot for prospects, and with Ruiz's success at a young age, he's been ranked highly by scouting services and I think his value is higher in terms of trade value and so I think again it's safer to invest in him. Hope that helps!
  3. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Andres Gimenez is a guy I think I view as more of a high floor prospect rather than a high ceiling. Contact skills are quite solid highlighted by a 19.9% K rate supported by an 11.7% swinging-strike rate at Advanced-A and 14.4% K rate supported by an 11.2% swinging-strike rate (note that MLB average last year for swinging-strike% was 10.7%). His relative aggressiveness this year helps mitigate some of the swing and miss too, and when you add in that he was very young for both levels and you can start to project him to be an above-average to plus contact hitter. His overall upside is limited though due to below-average raw power along with a low launch angle that has resulted in a 51.5% GB rate at A+ and 60.5% GB rate at AA (for reference, just 19 players in the majors had a 50%+ GB rate last year). His speed is also projected to decrease as he ages with Fangraphs having a 55/50 grade on him which has me believing he won't be a big threat on the bases in the majors despite the 38 SBs this year (also solid but not great efficiency at 73%). A projection of .273/.336, 12 HRs, 13 SBs I think is reasonable which makes him a potential fantasy starter in 12 team leagues at SS but that's certainly a lower-end starting option. Waters if you all remember got some hype last off-season around these parts after a guy made a post claiming him to be the next Mike Trout or something. He may not be that sort of player when all is said and done but Waters does possess an impressive collection of tools including plus raw power, plus current speed, and plus arm. The question is mostly on the hit tool and approach as he's been fairly aggressive this past year at full-season ball and posted swinging-strike rates of 11.5% and then 15% at A and A+ respectively. He was certainly more challenged by A+ and perhaps slightly overmatched, but he was quite young for the level and so that's understandable. The other thing with him right now is that his GB rate is quite high with a 51.5% mark at Single-A and 47.2% mark at A+ which suggests that he may not get to all of his raw power until changes are made. He's young and talented and so he's certainly capable of making big gains, but he's still very much a project at the moment. He's a higher risk/higher reward type of prospect.
  4. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

  5. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

    BBA talks about Nate Pearson in their latest podcast (https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/pro-podcast-vlad-jr-forrest-whitley-and-other-arizona-fall-league-notes/ @ 6:10-9:00) Pro Podcast: Vlad Jr, Forrest Whitley And Other Arizona Fall League Notes According to Josh Norris: - Really good (Not quite Forrest Whitley level) - Touched 100 mph five times in AFL so far - Curve, Slider, Changeup require more finesse, but all have the potential to be 6/6 with more refinement - Must control the body more, must improve fastball command - Missed the year, but is the #2 pitcher prospect in the AFL - Floor: Dellin Betances, Ceiling: "something special"
  6. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Thanks for the kind words and I'm glad you agree with the list for the most part. So Joey Bart is certainly intriguing, power hitting catcher with above-average defensive grades that should mean he stays behind the plate. I feel like his ranking on lot of sites is based on his draft position rather than his tools and production. He did produce really well in low-A this past year after being drafted, but as a top SEC player, he arguably should have been expected to dominate that level (1.6 years older than league average). I'm also slightly concerned at the low walk rates that he posted as a professional, far lower than the 15.07% walk rate of his junior year at Georgia Tech. Interestingly, in his Freshman and Sophmore seasons in college, he didn't walk tons either so maybe that's more him rather than the patient Junior college hitter? I also couldn't help but notice his high GB rate as a professional that may limit his power somewhat but he did smash 13 HRs in 204 PAs (24.5 HR/FB%). He's also quite far away still from the majors and is doesn't show high-end contact skills and it all plays into a ranking outside the top 100 and #5 overall among catchers who have either shown more and/or are closer to the majors.
  7. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Good questions! Hunter Greene is sliding because of the elbow strain he suffered in August plus he's oddly been more hittable as a professional than expected, especially the fastball which we saw get tagged in the future's game this year. Still think there's a lot to like, he misses plenty of bats (crazy 30.3 K% supported by an above-average 12.8% swinging-strike rate), he shows pretty good control (7.8 BB%), he has a viable 3 pitch mix highlighted by a triple digits fastball, a slider that flashes plus occasionally, and changeup this is still raw but has already taken steps forward. Good news is, he's still just 19 and he has plenty of time to figure out his game. Fairly high risk given his hittability right now and the injury risk associated with throwing that hard that often but the upside is high too. McKay is a guy I struggle to rank properly because of the two-way play. I ranked him solely as a pitcher in these rankings, and so I will probably have him ranked lower than pretty well everyone at the moment. His two-way play has held him back in lower-levels longer than perhaps is normal for one of the top college arms, and I think that has led to him beating up on inferior competition thus far often. The pitching numbers are terrific though, really nice control, elite swinging-strike numbers, high GB rates, and a nice 4 pitch mix with a chance for all 4 of them to be above-average. My concern is that there's only 1 pitch expected to be plus, that is his curveball, and that's certainly not a bad thing, I just think that his success will be tested more as he moves up the ladder. Curious to see how he gets developed going forward. Right now, I see Hampson as a guy that will get an opportunity to win the 2B job out of camp, with some utility role that allows him to get some time in the OF as well sort of like how the Cubs have managed Ben Zobrist. The ranking is solely on skill rather than opportunity btw, I just think his skill set is quite fantasy friendly. First off, he’s got well above-average contact skills highlighted by a 7% swinging-strike rate at AAA and 5.2% swinging-strike rate at AA. His 10.4% swinging-strike rate in a small sample in the majors is encouraging too and likely will go down with more MLB experience. For reference, MLB average last year was 10.7%, so even with some regression in his transition up to the majors, he projects as a very good contact hitter. 2nd, Hampson can run! He’s often graded as a 70-grade runner, and he has the instincts to use that speed effectively. He stole 38 bags last year split between AA/AAA/and the majors with just 5 CS. The year before he stole 51 bags against 14 CS at A+. He’s efficient on the basepaths and I think there’s a good chance he’s a 30 SB guy in the majors with upside for 40. Add in that he’s not bereft of power, hitting 10 HRs last year split between 3 levels and 8 the year before, and the thought of Coors Field helping him a bit in the majors in that department and he projects as a fantasy monster in the mold of a Starling Marte, Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura type at 2B/SS. I've been kinda down on Brendan Rodgers overall but I still think he's a top 10 fantasy prospect. He is very aggressive at the plate, doesn't walk much, and his aggressiveness hides his average to below-average contact skills (below average 11.8% swinging-strike rate at AA and 11.1% in AAA). He has plenty of power though and I think Coors Field will help him fill any gaps in his offensive game. .280ish with 25 HRs and a hint of speed is a terrific value at SS or 2B and that's why he's still a top 10 prospect imo. Paddack has a chance to jump into that elite tier of SP prospects, he's just behind it imo because of some minor breaking ball consistency concerns. He's been able to dominate the lower-levels on the back of the fastball/changeup combo (Changeup is crazy good, receives 65-70 grades), but the curveball has needed to take a step forward and reports suggest it has turned into a 50-55 weapon. If that curveball ticks up again to 60+ or he adds another weapon, that will secure the jump into the #1 pitching prospect discussion.
  8. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    One of the best comments I've seen in a while! ahaha
  9. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    First off, sorry for the delay on the responses! Dealt with a combination of the flu and other deadlines to meet the last few days but I have the time now and I'll get to each question. Feel free for anyone to ask any further questions or share their comments if they have any! I appreciate the kind words Brock, thank you! We often discuss prospects and I respect your analysis and viewpoints too and I love that we often are able to find common ground! - Interesting to hear your thoughts on Austin Hays! He had such a great run at A+ and AA in 2017, but since his late-season promotion to the majors that year, he hasn't looked the same. I'm not ready to completely write him off yet despite his struggles in 2018 and the holes in his game that include his almost complete lack of patience. He's still got plus raw power, and his aggressiveness at the plate lowers his strikeout risk. It's sort of the Eddie Rosario-lite sort of profile if it clicks and he showed some signs of finding himself again late in the year. Post-all-star break at AA last year, he hit .273/.291/.535 which admittedly is a small sample size of 23 games, but it's something. If he continues to struggle, he'll fall off the list. In your Ottoneu scoring format, I think you are right to downgrade him but in standard 5x5 leagues, there's still a chance he's useful. - Luis Garcia of the Phillies is a guy I definitely considered and I actually made a note on my excel spreadsheet of pitching prospects (so out of position) to look deeper into his profile. He had a really promising debut in the GCL, hitting .369/.433/.488 with 1 HR and 12 SBs over 187 PAs. Supported it with a nice approach including an 8% walk rate, and showed high-end contact skills with an 11.2% strikeout rate and elite 7% swinging-strike rate (best in the GCL). The reasons he didn't make the list is the concern about future power potential (smaller build at 5 foot 11, 170 lbs and receives 35-40 future power grades), speed is plus but he wasn't terribly efficient on the bases in ROK ball yet (12 for 20), and he's still just 17 and so there's a lot of potential variance left in his profile. He may be another Andres Gimenez type, and that's a nice prospect but that's higher floor prospect rather than a high ceiling prospect and I think that a super far away mid-tier upside prospect isn't quite ready to land on top 150 lists. Good name to keep in mind though! - Alex Reyes is a guy with a ton of upside, but I think also carries a bunch of downside risk and I feel like I've baked that into his ranking. If you banking on him being a SP, know that he's now 2 years removed from starting consistently and has a lot of innings to build up. In that last exposure as a full-time starter (2016), he dealt with a bunch of command issues (11%+ walk rates). And while he looked terrific in his initial return from injury this year as a SP, remember that it was just a 5 game sample across 5 different levels. His upside is still one of the highest among prospect eligible pitchers with his elite 4 pitch mix, and I feel like I've shown that with his projections being among the very best among pitchers. Until he is able to prove healthy and capable though, I think he's ranked fairly. Just my opinion! - Honestly, I didn't think to include Willians Austudillo in my rankings and I think that's a very worthwhile shoutout of a missed player. He lacked prospect hype before receiving the call (also doesn't help that he was passed on by 3 other organizations and is 27), and so that likely led to me missing him in the rankings! He's definitely an intriguing option in dynasty leagues with his unique profile, especially those in standard leagues where his lack of patience doesn't mean much. He's going to have to hit and hit to remain valuable, and I think his contact suggest that he can! - I ended up adding Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jose Suarez as #'s 149 and 150 respectively after realizing that Willie Calhoun and Taylor Ward were no longer prospect eligible. Hayes is becoming more interesting as his minor league batted ball figures suggest that he's raised his launch angle. Even with that, reports suggest his power is strength related rather than bat speed, and that his bat speed isn't great and so I'm not sure how much power upside there is with him. His contact skills are very good though and he should be able to chip in on the bases. Mediocre overall fantasy profile imo but a safe bet to reach it. And you know I'm in on Mauricio! His upside is special with his bat speed and projectability (6 foot 3, 166 lbs). He hasn't shown enough to make the list yet but he's a candidate to do so in the future if he can turn that promise into production.
  10. Adam Garland Pitcher's List- Top 150

    Thanks, @brockpapersizer for sharing the list, I appreciate it! I was the one that wrote the article, so if you guys have any questions or comments on any of the rankings I'd be happy to answer!
  11. Nate Pearson - SP TOR

    You got your wish!
  12. Toronto Blue Jays 2018 Outlook

    Rebuild thoughts by position:C - Russell Martin and Danny Jansen should be a good combo next year, hopefully with Martin helping Jansen learn the finer defensive parts of the game. Reese McGuire should be ready for a backup role post 2019 when Martin comes off the books. Feel good about this position1B - Interested to see how next year shakes out with Smoak still under contract, Donaldson potentially coming back, Morales at DH, and Vladdy ready for the majors and up 3 weeks into next year. Vladdy Jr. will likely be moved here at some point, not sure when but that would likely be the long-term play. Also don't forget about Rowdy Tellez who could be the DH going forward! Short and long term I feel good about it2B - Next year, it's going to be Travis again and in theory, he should be backed up by Solarte/Gurriel/Urena etc. Long term, I think this may end up being the spot for Bichette since his fielding metrics including FRAA at SS this year have been below-average. They will likely continue to give him every chance at SS and may play him there breaking into the majors before sliding over. Biggio is an option here too but I think he may be an OFer long-term and that may be the organization's belief too as they are going to give him OF reps in the AFL. Some other lower level options too like Otto Lopez but overall I like where the org is at for 2B.SS - Short-term, this is probably Aledmys Diaz and whatever is left of Tulo's job to lose. Overall, probably the most concerning position in the infield for the Jays going forward. Bichette hasn't been a great defender in terms of FRAA, Logan Warmoth has been a disappointment, Santiago Espinal likely isn't a high ceiling player, and there's some lower level intriguing talent in Orelvis Martinez (probably a 3B profile) and Leonardo Jimenez among others but they aren't close to helping soon. Kevin Smith is probably the best option right now and he's had a breakout year, but I have some concern with the contact profile at A+ including the 24.2% strikeout rate supported by a below-average 15.4% swinging-strike rate. Small sample size yes and he's got time to figure things out. Love the power though, and if he can hit he would really solidify the position going forward.3B - Short-term, this will be a position with a stop-gap as I anticipate Vladdy Jr. getting the call 3 weeks into the season next year. That means that Brandon Drury likely is the opening day 3B next year. The initial play would be to keep Vladdy at 3rd as long as possible, but I think long-term he's a 1B and a guy like Jordan Groshans should be groomed to be the 3B of the future. Orelvis Martinez and Miguel Hiraldo are also in that discussion for 3B of the long-term future and if all work out, some may have to move to the OF.LF - Short-term the org will give this to Teoscar Hernandez and hope he flourishes. He's got intriguing skills including a special ability to impact the ball, but his contact and patience skills need further refinement along with his D. My guess is he's not part of the long-long term plans but he's a good young placeholder and may just work his way into the plans with improvements. Cavan Biggio I think is a likely candidate here too where his defensive skills would play better (reports of him likely playing OF in the AFL this fall). Griffin Conine is an option too as is Forrest Wall and Jonathan Davis as likely 4th OFers and then the leftover players like Hiraldo and Martinez if they don't end up playing 3B. There may not be an Andrew Benintendi type of LFer here for the future, but I think it'll be fine. LF is an easy spot to fill.CF - The other weak point imo in the organization from a position player standpoint. You have Grichuk and Pillar short-term and my bet is Pillar's value is worth more to the team at this point than in a trade so he'll exhaust his team control with the org. Not opposed to moving either at all though! Anthony Alford is the next man up and he has trended down this year, but I'm not quite ready to give up on him as his tools are still there. Obviously, don't count on him being the guy and injury past doesn't help but he's worth more to the org now than his likely trade value and there's a non-zero chance he figures out his contact skills. Dalton Pompey seems to be out of the picture. Beyond that, it's kind of thin and I think this may be a spot of interest in terms of trade acquisitions (think Stroman/Sanchez deals?). Free agency is a bad bet for CFers as CF defense doesn't age well and you're largely getting end of peak or past peak players in FA. Bo Bichette could be a darkhorse potential CF option going forward where his athleticism may play well. It may be worth considering if they feel their MI depth is fine.RF - Short-term, this is probably Grichuk's to lose, with Billy McKinney being a low-end starter option in the event of a Pillar or Grichuk trade and Dwight Smith Jr. probably being a 4th OFer. RF has similar options going forward to LF with Griffin Conine, and then the leftovers of who doesn't play 3rd, likely Orelvis Martinez and Hiraldo. This could also be the spot where they look to acquire through trade their "Mitch Haniger" or "Ramon Laureano" whereby you find value from a team that can't keep all of their talent.SP - Easily the position the furthest away from being World Series viable. Love Stroman and Sanchez, both could be bridges to the future while offering strong upside if they are willing to re-sign here. I mentioned maybe moving one in the CF section above, and I wouldn't be opposed to it for the right deal. Sean Reid-Foley is the top upper level prospect arm, Boruki and Pannone should provide back-end rotation value and give the team innings, and you also have Zeuch who should be a back of the rotation guy too at AA. Pardinho and Pearson are the high-upside plays and I think we have reason to be excited about both. Hopefully they can help for 2021 forward when many of the team's prospects are ready. I generally value BPA in professional sports drafts, but a college starting pitcher would probably be ideal next year in the draft in the 1st round to supplement the many position prospects and enhance pitching depth with a target of competing in 2021 forward. SPing is also the spot where they can realistically spend the free agent $ that is coming off the books. Impact pitching should be a major focus!
  13. Dylan Cease - SP CHC

  14. Ramon Laureano 2018 Outlook

    Don't sleep on Ramon Laureano in deeper leagues, he's hammering the ball and has both power and speed! .280/.321/.491 line so far with 3 HRs and 3 SBs in just 56 PAs. 5.4% walk rate should rise as he's known for working deep counts and lots of walks as a minor leaguer. 32.1% K rate should probably come down too as he showed average contact skills in AAA this year with a 24.6% K rate and 10.8% swinging-strike rate. Known as a higher exit velocity guy that won best impact sound off the bat award at the Arizona Fall League 2 years ago. Crazy 2.9% soft contact rate right now, 51.1% Hard Contact rate supported by an above-average 90.6 MPH avg exit velocity. xBA of .285, xSLG of .526. Also a good defender which helps keep him in the lineup and an efficient base stealer. Remember him for next year!
  15. Wander Franco, SS, TB

    From Baseball Prospectus "Eyewitness Accounts": Hit Future Grade - 60 Power Future Grade - 60 Baserunning/Speed Grade - 50 Overall - 60: First-division SS, occasional all-star Link to article: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/42080/eyewitness-accounts-august-16-wander-franco-jared-kelenic/