FantasyBallFan

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  1. Did not see a thread on big KAT so I thought I would start one. Probably the "safest" guy in the Top 5 discussion. As durable as they come and the Wolves have really hyped him up as they move forward with Ryan Saunders as the coach. Originally he was the next guy I would consider after AD in auction drafts next month. After taking a look at his numbers I noticed a definitive trend that i've never really seen discussed regarding his fantasy value. Over his career he has been way better in the 2nd half of the season (post ASB). And each year websites like BBM formulate their projections on him based on his post ASB numbers. Obviously post ASB should be considered when projecting a player but at what point do we acknowledge this trend with KAT. Now in terms of rationale one could argue that in 2017-18 Jimmy hurt his knee and missed the majority of the 2nd half which allowed KAT to explode. You could say the same about 18-19 when Jimmy left, Saunders came in and KAT took off. I personally agree with both but we're talking about 4 years of a noticeable trend. It could very well be that you don't get the elite Top 3 talent until post ASB. He's generally being projected around 28 and 13 this year based on how he finished the year under the new regime. Obviously, having a player hit his peek around H2H playoffs is not a bad thing but there's an obvious trend that suggests he won't be the player we expect him to be for the full 82. If this trend continues my issue is that once he ramps it up I still won't expect true #1 fantasy player numbers. Personally i'm beginning to lean towards Curry and Harden because they've shown to be more consistent and have proven they can be the #1 fantasy guy. I still think KAT is a beast, I just wanted to point out a trend I noticed and see what you guys think. He could very well average 28/13 this year and nobody would be surprised, but I also wont be surprised if we don't see that 28&13 until Feb/March. If this trend extends to 5 years any excuses/rational will become irrelevant and I probably won't consider him in the Top 3/4 going forward. Again by no means am I down on Towns, I have just tempered my expectations regarding the full 82 game season.
  2. This first paragraph often gets forgotten in fantasy. We get so caught up in stats and the forget that some of these players are not very good in real life. And thats why they never get big minutes or we complain about how bad a coach is for not playing them.
  3. Its a shame that we even have to discuss Hields minutes going down. If the Kings find a way to decrease his role then I believe they’ll become an even bigger joke around the league. This guy has improved every year since entering college. His work ethitic is increadible and Ive stopped betting against him when it comes to him improving his game. The real issue is the Kings and I do not trust them.
  4. I usually target injured stars but I have no interest in Dipo this year. I don’t believe he could be any better than he was in the 18-19 season when he got injured. This is a different type of knee injury, unlike an ACL where we have seen guys hit the ground running. I can see him finishing anywhere between 50-100 but see no chance at top 30.
  5. It’s a very simple concept. Chances are they speak like this with each other in a very toxic manner making threats. Chances are she did not want her son attending because the father of her child is marrying someone else. She knew exactly what she was doing by recording him, this is obviously planned and could be to defame him, get sole custody or maybe she really feared for her life. Fearing for her life is unlikely considering he’s probably made threats like this before and she took no action. There’s probably no coincidence that she finally decides to take action when he marries another woman. With all that said Boogie is at fault here and nobody else. If shes being vindictive in keeping his son out of his wedding I can see why he’d lose control. Understanding why he could have snapped in no way excuses his actions. At the very end of the day it’s on him to maintain self control, especially when he’s the public figure with everything to lose. It’s simply an unfortunate situation when a child is involved. Who knows if he loses custody of his kid. The NBA takes these things extremely serious but im sure his focus will be on whatever impending legal issues he has to face. Boogie has quickly turned into one of the most if not the most tragic story over the last 10-15 years.
  6. I honestly think theres no chance he gets near top 60. Way too many holes in his game from a fantasy standpoint and given his poor %s an increased usage could negate any increase in his counting stats.
  7. Agreed theres no reason to target Brolo in that build. Guys like Myles Turner and Lopez derive so much value as bigs because of their ability to block shots without a negative impact on FTs. I’ve personally been high on an AD and Drummond in a punt FT pairing all off season. Can essentially have two top 5 players for a much lower cost. One player with injury risk and the other is as durable as they come. Auction obviously.
  8. Past games played was irrelevant to the fact that he was constantly injured last year. Solid attempt at spining my words into something else. I get it, we all have our guys were high on. 9 cat Otto is amazing But being rested near the end of H2H playoffs is a serious risk.
  9. He was constantly injured last year lol. Grade 2 knee sprain, lower leg strain, re-occuring toe issue, a quad and shoulder issues. Chalk that shoulder one up to the Bulls resting him and he still had an injury riddled year. Nobody called him injury prone, his past games played is irrelevant.
  10. These guys aren't just shooters like Kyle Korver. Both of them, specifically Conley are real scorers and the chance that Mitchells scoring goes down is real. Life will definitely be easier for Mitchell but in terms of fantasy it could go either way.
  11. I expect him to improve but it may not translate to fantasy value. Increased assists could easily be offset by turnovers and an increase in efficiency can be offset by less scoring. Everyone seems to talk about the improved efficiency and easier shots he'll get but ignore the fact they brought in two starters who averaged a combined 39 points replacing Rubio and Ingles who combined for 25. The key to Mitchells value will be steals which could and should be better. Unfortunately he's just better in real life. I think the possibility of him ending up in the 50-60 range is more likely than top 25 but personally I think he'll end up somewhere between 35-45. On a per game basis I think Conley will be better, but durability is the obvious difference.
  12. Completely agree. No true Centre on the heat has ever played 30+ minutes for Coach Spo except for Whiteside the year he averaged 17 and 14 but Mike Gallagher won't tell you that. Yes Bam is talented but I heard the same depth chart argument with Allen last year. Everyone argued that there is nobody behind Allen so there will be no reason he doesn't play 28-30 mpg and guess what, he only played 26mpg. Even an expectation of 16 and 10 with 30mpg is fairly unrealistic when you look at the entire NBA landscape. Ayton averaged 16 and 10 in 31mpg and he is no where near Ayton offensively. If you think the Miami heat will be giving Bam serious looks in the post, or he'll get as many touches as Ayton goodluck with that disappoint. Then everyone will blame the Heat and complain about Spo when in reality it's your fault for over drafting him. It's rinse and repeat every year He will not get the minutes.
  13. Worth the risk with his discounted price, I just dont expect his steals to be anywhere close to 1.8 during his best season. Because he isn’t flashy statistically he was always a guy that would be undervalued in drafts. Him having such a down year furthers that even more.
  14. Could be a serious value pick as the 2nd big on the roster with that tragic Boogie news.. AD hates playing C so Mcgee might have a chance to start, but theres probably no chance he closes out games. Starting or not, repeating his 22MPG seems like a pretty safe bet.