Rolling Thunder

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Everything posted by Rolling Thunder

  1. 2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

    I have Fitz higher, and I am not as confident about Hill, ARob and Jeffrey as most folks (just me), but otherwise I like the list.
  2. 2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

    Early in the off-season, it can be helpful to have a thread that can serve as a depository for random thoughts on a particular position, at least until we transition into using individual player threads more. Also, the team outlook threads are often devoted (properly so) to topics like draft strategy, the wisdom (or lack thereof) of trades, and the like. As I begin to form my initial WR rankings, I'm curious to hear who folks believe may be under or over valued as top tier WRs, and the reasons supporting those beliefs. The consensus seems to be that drafting RBs early will be popular, so I'm interested in whether folks believe that there are top WRs that are likely to return superior value because their worth is being surpressed by recency bias in any of its various forms. I will kick off the discussion with a general observation that 96mnc made recently in another thread: The key is finding those guys that due to situation (lack of other weapons, bad D, pass heavy coach, coach that funnels targets to a particular receiver spot) can project to 160+ targets. It is not my intent to limit this thread just to WRs that posters believe will reach the rarified air of 160+ targets, but the reasoning offered for what typically dictates a WR's fantasy fortunes is sound. I would think that "situation" will have a lot to do with why folks identify particular top WRs as potentially good or bad values. In terms of top WRs who may end up somewhat undervalued, I have AJG and Evans on my list. D. Thomas may be in store for more of a bounce back than he'll be given credit for. I feel as if OBJ will be overvalued. I feel as if Nuke and M. Thomas will be worth whatever folks pay for them. Those are just my first thoughts. I have others.
  3. Chris Carson 2018 Season Outlook

    I was always under the impression that Seattle was a team known for giving snaps to players, especially RBs, who earn them. I disagree that Penny's draft cost will keep Carson off the field if Carson performs like he did in limited action last season. It would not be too surprising to me if Penny found himself in a legitimate timeshare with Carson. Also, if that split of duty were to come about because both Penny and Carson earn it, I don't believe that Schneider would be subjected to the sort of criticism that would cause him (or better yet Carroll) to make a personnel decision that they don't care to make, like not playing Carson when he's earned the right. In other words, Carson could easily affect Penny's value for fantasy simply by earning a significant role for himself. As of right now, a bigger unknown to me than Carson's abilty to earn a big share of a timeshare is Penny's ability to prevent that from happening. I believe that Penny will have to really excel right away, or Carson will have to have an injury set back, for Penny to have the backfield all to himself. He might blow everyone away, who knows. But I haven't seen any data points to that effect just yet.
  4. Chris Carson 2018 Season Outlook

    Game script will probably influence Carson's and Penny's fortunes more than anything. As much as Petey Boy fantasizes about controlling games with a grinder, his playmakerless D is going to nix that plan. I want the RB who is in there when Wilson is chasing points. If Procise and McKissic are also healthy and in the mix, who knows where the value, if any, will be found in this backfield. If the no-name D somehow holds its own, then my views change dramatically.
  5. Demaryius Thomas 2018 Season Outlook

    Sammy Watkins, right?
  6. 2018 Biggest Busts

    Fair enough. The braintrust in San Francisco isn't infallible. They wouldn't be the first to waste big money on an imprudent FA signing. However, keep in mind that Shanahan's system seems capable of turning almost anyone who is at least a partial scheme fit into a productive RB. Hyde was barely a scheme fit, and he produced well for the most part. Maybe you can argue he is a way better player than McKinnon, but there is no denying that he was miscast. By contrast, it is undeniable McKinnon is a supreme scheme fit (that's why they overpaid to sign him). So for lots of folks, productive scheme + perfect fit + mediocre player still = fantasy success. Maybe McKinnon doesn't outperform the other 2nd and 3rd RBs in PPR, but it really seems impossible that he wouldn't have a decent floor. If he doesn't realize a lofty ceiling, is he a "bust" really? Not sure.
  7. 2018 Biggest Busts

    Man, you couldn't be more wrong about that. Peter King published a piece about Shanahan pounding the table for Williams on draft day, which was accurate. But when Williams arrived for the off-season program, he immediately put himself in Shanahan's and Lynch's dog houses. It was then crickets on Williams from both Shanahan and Lynch all off-season, followed finally by Williams being hidden on IR all season so he could contemplate his bubble status and, hopefully, get his mind right. Hot takes are bad enough. But I don't know what to call them when it is easy to see that they are totally false.
  8. Tyler Lockett 2018 Season Outlook

    Agree. And Lockett is no slouch. It seems to be a no brainer.
  9. Word is that Todd Haley is in as Cleveland's OC. If true, recency bias may very well make Cleveland a source of bargains if they can get some serviceable QB depth on board. Why? Because Hue has always been a fraud IMO (including his days in Oakland), whereas Haley knows what he is doing. Cleveland has more talent on both sides of the ball than people realize. Quality coaching, which has been lacking for a long time, could result in an immediate turn around. If talented coaches are put in place, it would be a mistake to dismiss Cleveland in 2018 just because it's Cleveland. With Haley now in charge of the offense, I'm inclined to study Cleveland more closely in the off-season than I have in the past.
  10. Cleveland Browns 2018 Season Outlook

    Haley's hiring has me persuaded that Hue is nothing but a figured-head now (like Lewis or Tomlin). The roster is going to be unleashed this season. I can see that, and I'm not even a Browns fan.
  11. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    Me too. I was the one who started the 2017 Ertz thread with these thougths: "A talented TE becomes truly valuable, it seems, when he cements a special bond with a competent QB in a decent offense. Once a QB gets used to relying upon the big target his TE provides between the hashes, the receps inevitably come in volume. From the game logs (I don't follow the Eagles), it looks as if Wentz and Ertz finally bonded well beginning in week 9. Ertz was targeted quite a bit after that. He ended the season top 5 in PPG (PPR). Shouldn't the Week 9-15 Wentz/Ertz connection carry over in 2017? His ADP is even later than Rudolf's, making him a seemingly ideal target for those who like their TEs late. Other than Jeffrey's arrival, which may or may not impact Ertz materially, is there reason to doubt Ertz this season?" I really thought Ertz's last half of the 2016 season was the compelling data point, and it turned out that it was. No change now as far as I'm concerned.
  12. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    Without Gase's baffling mistreatment of Drake so far, I would agree with you. But given what Drake did on the field when given the chance, Gase's almost psychotic refusal to allow him to lead Miami's backfield is a data point that colors all of the current data points as far as I'm concerned, including the usual coachspeak.
  13. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook

    It is one of the more interesting choices this season. As the video demonstrates, LaFleur is the wildcard here. If he is anything like Shanahan, the RB who proves that they are the best fit for the outside zone run scheme will have a big leg up (see what I did there?!). Personally, I'm going to discount more than usual the "past performance" data points for both Henry and Lewis. LaFleur had no hand in drafting Henry, and Mariota isn't Brady. Have to wait until the pads go on before trying to sort this competition out.
  14. Cleveland Browns 2018 Season Outlook

    I'll keep saying it. You're looking at the NFL's Houston Astros. After the initial shock wears off folks will go "duh." There are less than 10 rosters that I would take over Cleveland's. Being awful for two decades has its advantages.
  15. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    If it helps, I steadfastly refused for many years to draft a TE early. For the first time ever, I took the plunge (Gronk) because I got fed up with the roller coaster. I really enjoyed how it worked out. I have one 12 team PPR league with only 5 bench spots. Carrying 2 TEs there is almost impossible. Having a TE that you don't have to think about is almost a necessity. I may go the same route there, while I mull over my options in leagues with deeper benches.
  16. Along with Tampa Bay, the Giants are one of my early front-runners for bounce back candidate of 2018. They are one year removed from a 13-3 campaign, and they could convert their substantial draft capital into instant impact if they focus on OL and RB (both of which are very deep in this coming draft) and re-commit for another few years to Eli. To start off the discussion, who has real insight on Shurmur? Anything will be an improvement over McAdoo, but is Shurmur the guy to refocus this group, just like Marrone and Coughlin were the right guys to refocus an otherwise talented Jags group?
  17. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    Tell me you're not comparing Graham to Cook.
  18. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    Coincidentally, RW just posted this: Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he is "very excited" with sophomore TE Jake Butt's progress. Butt missed his entire rookie season recovering from a torn ACL, but he was fully healthy for the offseason program. "He works so hard and he’s obviously a playmaker [when] you watch him catch the football," Joseph said. "He’s going to be a great addition to our offense." In a weak tight end group, Butt will get every chance to earn the starting job. He could surprise in fantasy. @Impreza178, you'll owe me one before this is over
  19. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    Graham is already going almost as high as Ertz (5th round to Ertz's 4th round in FFC 12 team PPR). Not sure how he can be mentioned in the same breath as Reed and Doyle, who are going in the 9th and 12th rounds, respectively. Speaking of Graham, he might even be the #1 TE for me. I know we're operating off of zero history here, whereas the big 3 have an established record, but I'm loving the ARod/Graham marriage more than I can stand.
  20. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    True, but Drake is already an early 4th in FFC 12 team PPR, nestled along side the likes of Collins, Guice and Ajayi, with Michel, Jones and Ingram not far behind. If Gase continues to play his games, how can anyone justify taking Drake over any of the guys currently being drafted in his neighborhood (although the CS in Philly is arguably as bad for Ajayi's fortunes as Gase is for Drake's)? Gase owes us nothing (he's coaching real football), but his approach certainly makes an early 4th too rich of an investment for me at this time.
  21. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    Are you suggesting that Butt's path to a breakout is as (or more) problematic as Kittle's? If so, please direct me to reports that Musgrave comes into TC as high (and committed) to someone else as he might be with Butt. I view the situation in Denver as a true competition, with the winner being the guy. If there is real evidence that Musgrave has decided that someone other than Butt has already secured a significant role (as Shanahan has already decided Celek has), then I would love to see it.
  22. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    This is why I have been saying all along that a meaningful Kittle breakout is a long shot: https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/6/13/17456798/george-kittle-49ers-minicamp-media-celek-time Shanahan likes Celek as mich as he likes Kittle. How can Kittle be a serviceable fantasy TE if he is going to be splitting snaps equally with someone else? And that's in an offense not known particularly for game-planning around the TE position.
  23. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    Most coach-speak isn't reliable, but considering the way Gase mistreated Drake last season, rumblings like this make me question Drake's fortunes even more: Dolphins coach Adam Gase said rookie Kalen Ballage is "progressing quickly." Ballage also drew raves for his OTA work. Despite his size, Ballage has looked like Miami's best pass-down back this offseason. The Dolphins could open the year with a committee of Ballage, Kenyan Drake, and Frank Gore. Jun 13 - 10:06 AM If we can't trust Gase, how can we trust Drake (even though his talent is obvious to us)?
  24. Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

    It is well-known that Joe Williams did not endear himself to Shanahan and Lynch after Shanahan pounded the table to draft him. Fair to say, Williams ended his rookie season on, or near, the roster bubble. In a presser held on the first day of minicamp yesterday, Shanahan for the first time since draft day spoke something positive about Williams: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/shanahan-encouraged-what-hes-seen-49ers-rb-joe-williams It should be noted that during the same presser, Shanahan said that McKinnon has been everything they hoped he would be when they signed him, so there's that too. But as long as Shanahan is openly allowing for the possibility that Williams can become the player he (Shanahan) thought on draft day that Williams could become, it cannot be said with certainty that Williams is a zero threat to McKinnon's stranglehold on snaps. The situation still needs to play out some more in the PS to draw any final conclusions.
  25. 2018 Sleepers

    I say Winston has the best shot at surprising (in a positive way) with his performance in 2018. Cousins has done well in recent years, so he'd have to perform out of his mind to qualify as a sleeper. Mahomes has marinated for a year, so maybe he can perform at a high level out of the gate. I'm just relictant to place bets on guys who may face a steep learning curve. Flacco is hopeless IMO, improved supporting cast or not. He should not have been given that mega-contract.