Rolling Thunder

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Everything posted by Rolling Thunder

  1. A.J. Green 2018 Outlook

    Cincy has already upgraded its O-line (with Cordy Glenn) and John Ross and Tyler Eifert may actually contribute. Progression to the mean is in Dalton's favor too. Finally, recency bias should leave AJG as cheap as he's ever been. I'm sniffing value here in 2018. I will also be watching the draft to see if Cincy gets even more O-line help there.
  2. Lamar Miller 2018 Outlook

    I know the Texans did not have much draft capital, but they added no one to the RB room. They have upgraded the O-line however (Kelemete, Henderson and Rankin). Do we really have to start taking Miller seriously again? He was certainly disappointing last season (around RB#20 PPG in PPR). One problem was he only scored 6 times, 3 of those coming through the air. However, in 4 games with Watson, Miller averaged 18 PPG in PPR, which over a full season is Melvin Gordon/Mark Ingram territory. With a full dose of recency bias, are we looking at a bit of a value here in 2018?
  3. Jameis Winston 2018 Outlook

    Winston's mid-season injury and the failings of the Bucs defense certainly dimmed Winston's previously rising star in 2017. The naysayers now rule the day. But the following observation from an NFL.com article published recently got me thinking a bit more about Winston: "Statistically, Winston posted a better season in most categories. He improved on his completion percentage by three percentage points, upped his passing yards per game from 255.6 to 269.5 and posted a 92.2 passer rating, the best of his career." Koetter was retained, so there is continuity going forward. Winston, for all his faults, is another year wiser (hopefully). Maybe DJax stays healthy for the whole year, they make changes that improve the defense, and a rookie RB out if this historically deep draft class suddenly fills a 3 down roll in style. What then? You can bet that Winston will be one of the last QBs that folks will consider drafting this season. Recency bias will be strong. But every year there is a maligned QB that can be had for almost free who proves to be a worthwhile addition to a roster deep enough to roster a second (or even third) QB. Right now, I am liking Winston as one of those bounce back, end-of-draft candidates.
  4. Devontae Booker 2018 Outlook

    With CJA gone, Booker probably deserves his own thread now. As with most RBs who are "lead candidates" on their teams at the moment, the 10 or more quality 3 down RBs available in next week's draft remain a threat. Henderson is still there too. Because of what I saw from Booker at Utah, I jumped on the Booker band wagon last off season. He disappointed for sure. Is he really well liked by that CS? With Keenum triggering the offense, the running game should improve. Will the improvement be enough to support a fantasy relevant RB in Denver?
  5. 2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

    Early in the off-season, it can be helpful to have a thread that can serve as a depository for random thoughts on a particular position, at least until we transition into using individual player threads more. Also, the team outlook threads are often devoted (properly so) to topics like draft strategy, the wisdom (or lack thereof) of trades, and the like. As I begin to form my initial WR rankings, I'm curious to hear who folks believe may be under or over valued as top tier WRs, and the reasons supporting those beliefs. The consensus seems to be that drafting RBs early will be popular, so I'm interested in whether folks believe that there are top WRs that are likely to return superior value because their worth is being surpressed by recency bias in any of its various forms. I will kick off the discussion with a general observation that 96mnc made recently in another thread: The key is finding those guys that due to situation (lack of other weapons, bad D, pass heavy coach, coach that funnels targets to a particular receiver spot) can project to 160+ targets. It is not my intent to limit this thread just to WRs that posters believe will reach the rarified air of 160+ targets, but the reasoning offered for what typically dictates a WR's fantasy fortunes is sound. I would think that "situation" will have a lot to do with why folks identify particular top WRs as potentially good or bad values. In terms of top WRs who may end up somewhat undervalued, I have AJG and Evans on my list. D. Thomas may be in store for more of a bounce back than he'll be given credit for. I feel as if OBJ will be overvalued. I feel as if Nuke and M. Thomas will be worth whatever folks pay for them. Those are just my first thoughts. I have others.
  6. Sterling Shepard 2018 Outlook

    With the OBJ situation so up in the air, and before we know if Barkley joins the backfield, is it too early to begin assessing Shepard's value? I believe Shepard is plenty talented. I believe he has the make up to become a high level performer. Is 2018 the season he breaks out?
  7. George Kittle 2018 Outlook

    It stole this from a post in another forum: Last season: Kittle: 43 catches/515 yards/2 TD’s OJ Howard: 26 catches/432 yards/6 TD’s Evan Engram: 64/722/6 Rookie seasons of all other TE’s in the Top 10 in receiving yards in 2017: Graham: 31 catches/356 yards/5 TD’s Gronk: 42/456/10 Ertz: 36/469/4 Vernon Davis: 20/265/3 Kelce: Missed rookie year due to injury Delanie Waker: 2/30/0 Jack Doyle: 5/19/0 Jared Cook: 9/74/0 Cameron Brate: 1/17/0 Some pundits believe that Kittle is should be on the short list of sophomores or juniors who are poised to break out this season: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-breakout-players-heres-a-look-at-10-who-are-poised-for-big-things-this-season/ Kittle could not have a better QB to work with. In Shanahan's multifaceted offense, it is unlikely that a TE will ever lead the league in targets. However, we play in a world where modest regular production, supplemented by a big game here and there, defines a decent fantasy TE starter. Is Kittle likely to be one in 2018, and if so, who are his value comps?
  8. Ronald Jones 2018 Outlook

    After Barkley, I am thinking that RoJo may have one of the best opportunities to make a rookie impact in 2018. With only Barber, Rodgers and Sims to overcome, Jones has a great chance to seize significant 3 down snaps right out of the chute. Grabbing Jones so high also speaks volumes for how the TB FO/CS feel about the incumbents. Finally, recency bias could cause TB's offense to be undervalued. Thoughts?
  9. Cleveland Browns 2018 Outlook

    Word is that Todd Haley is in as Cleveland's OC. If true, recency bias may very well make Cleveland a source of bargains if they can get some serviceable QB depth on board. Why? Because Hue has always been a fraud IMO (including his days in Oakland), whereas Haley knows what he is doing. Cleveland has more talent on both sides of the ball than people realize. Quality coaching, which has been lacking for a long time, could result in an immediate turn around. If talented coaches are put in place, it would be a mistake to dismiss Cleveland in 2018 just because it's Cleveland. With Haley now in charge of the offense, I'm inclined to study Cleveland more closely in the off-season than I have in the past.
  10. New York Giants 2018 Outlook

    Along with Tampa Bay, the Giants are one of my early front-runners for bounce back candidate of 2018. They are one year removed from a 13-3 campaign, and they could convert their substantial draft capital into instant impact if they focus on OL and RB (both of which are very deep in this coming draft) and re-commit for another few years to Eli. To start off the discussion, who has real insight on Shurmur? Anything will be an improvement over McAdoo, but is Shurmur the guy to refocus this group, just like Marrone and Coughlin were the right guys to refocus an otherwise talented Jags group?
  11. Bilal Powell 2017 Season Outlook

    Is this Powell's year (finally), particularly in PPR? He was 27th in PPG in PPR last season. I'm thinking he betters that substantially in 2017, even with what promises to be a rather crappy offense. Powell has proven that he has a 3 down skill set and Forte's durability must be at an all time low. It is a reasonable bet IMO that Powell has this gig all to himself at some point during the season.
  12. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    With the 200th selection in 2018 Experts draft, Rolling Thunder selects Hayden Hurst, TE, Baltimore.
  13. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    RT rosters last season's #5 QB, Alex Smith.
  14. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    @JHM_13selects Taywan Taylor. @Rolling Thunderselects Josh Doctson.
  15. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    Lat. Murray joins Rolling Thunder.
  16. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    Give me Stills
  17. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    Sony Michel, bad knees and all. Couldn't stand by while he fell any further.
  18. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    I am making a pick purely out of admiration and trust in what I see. Chris Carson is the pick.
  19. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    The unimaginative and unsatisfying pick is Brandon Cooks.
  20. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    Travis Kelce folks. I don't usually draft TEs early, but I am making an exception here. Mahomes will need his security blanket.
  21. 2018 Rotoworld Forum Experts League

    Nice pick Matt.
  22. I just saw this Pack. Was way distracted today. Hope you filled this out and are busy compiling rosters as we speak!!
  23. 2018 QB Rankings

    This thinking is not without parallel. With an experienced game manager already rostered, KC made Mahomes a 1st round selection, and promptly sat him his rookie year. Smith did quite fine, and he ended up a valuable trade chip. Sure Mahomes wasn't selected #1 overall, but Mayfield is no closer to NFL ready than Mahomes was, and Taylor's TD/pick ratio and elite legs suggest that he is capable of operating an offense now loaded with talent just fine. If he just does what he's been doing his entire career (he'll likely do better), odds are good the Browns will win games and Taylor will keep Mayfield comfortably marinating. Dorsey won't mind building Taylor's credibility, and hence trade value, for a season. I don't see any better freebies than Taylor.
  24. 2018 Rotoworld Mock Real League

    Damning is more fun though.
  25. Carlos Hyde 2018 Outlook

    Basically.