There's always a QB that busts out from late round to top 3. Wait on qb and find that guy if you can. Good luck. I was certain it was Winston last year.
With QB, I either want to be first or I want to be last. Rodgers is the only one I would take first. He WILL finish top 3 unless there is a major injury (Jordy in '15 counts).
Someone mentioned that the qb1 isn't normally the first qb drafted. But if Rodgers finished qb2 or qb3 this point isn't really significant.
As it relates to Watson, depends on the price and value over replacement. Someone mentioned that there's no guarantee a top 3 drafted qb ends up top 3 in points. If it's Rodgers, you're virtually guaranteed except for injury. Others, yeah, it's risky. But again, what round are we talking about? It's a risk vs reward play. If you're really happy with your team in the 4th or 5th, then maybe go for it.
But the thing that my math failed to take into account was that you can draft 2 QB late and play match ups, or even stream QB. It's not as simple as comparing 2nd round QB to 7th round QB, then 2nd round WR vs 7th. In a vacuum, OK. But it's not a vacuum, I've learned.
I think at a certain point Rodgers is still worth it but I'm going to be more inclined to wait on QB this year. There's enough good options I plan on just rostering 2 and playing matchups and coming closer to what Rodgers can do alone.