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Lord_Varys last won the day on October 29 2016

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  1. I'd say Pryor could hit 95-1400-14 in an absolutely perfect world. 105-1200-10 seems more reasonable for Crowder's ceiling. We just see the players differently, I guess, and no problem w that.
  2. Disagree on the equal ceiling. Pryor's physical ability alone gives him a mid-range WR1 ceiling. Crowder can maybe get a few more targets but the yards per catch and TD rates will favor Pryor.
  3. Ameer Abdullah in the 6th or 7th round.
  4. Fake news. Of course the HC is going to say good things about the players on his team. Caldwell is always trying to smokescreen and misdirect. I'd be more concerned if he said they planned to use Abdullah as a workhorse because I know that wouldn't be what he really means.
  5. Team: Bradys Deep Balls QB: Winston ($7), Prescott ($5) RB: Crowell ($20), Martin ($18), Montgomery ($13), Woodhead ($4), Charles ($4) WR: Brown ($51), Cooks ($32), Watkins ($23), Snead ($4), Garcon ($1), John Brown ($3), Beasley ($3) TE: Ebron ($4), Brate ($1) DST: Giants ($3), Lions ($1) K: Colts ($1), Cardinals ($1) Analysis QB: I unfortunately could not procure Brady... the high end QBs were going much higher than I anticipated (anticipation based on reviewing results of the May DM). This was perhaps a blessing in disguise though as I was able to take Winston (2nd most pass yards through first 2 NFL seasons all time) and Prescott (looking forward to the shootouts in the NFC East this year) for a combined $12. They are both mobile QBs, so some rushing yards should help with the weekly floor. And everyone knows how high I am on Winston this year. If I can't get Rodgers or Brady, I want famous Jameis. I'm very happy with the value I got at the QB position. RB: Don't think I drafted enough of them. But, the 3 starters I do have -- Crow, Martin, and Montgomery -- I think all came at very nice prices, and look poised for a) volume and b.) an adequate reception floor. I was mad I missed Abdullah (was too busy scolding Iron in the chat, at this point, I think), and I let White and Gillislee both get away... Woodhead, I am banking on picking up the slack while Martin is out this year, but also a consistent PPR floor throughout the year as they seem to love him as a receiver in Baltimore. I basically need these guys to stay healthy though because there's just not a lot of depth here. I certainly did intend to try and get the bargain values at this position, since it is PPR, and I think I succeeded to that end. Again, just hope there is enough depth. Charles for $4 doesn't mean much since I was just trying to burn cash with my last couple picks. If his knee is right, this is huge. I should've skipped on Beasley and gotten Quizz instead. WR: I feel like this has to be one of the strongest if not the strongest WR core in the league, both in terms of top-end firepower and depth. I wasn't planning on getting AB, not at all .... but when the timer was counting down and his price was at $50, I thought ... I can't let the best WR in the game go in a PPR draft for only $50, so I bid $51, fully expecting other people to drive him up nearer to $60. But no one did. This was my 3rd pick of the evening, and certainly changed the budget calculus for the rest of the night. I am fine with it. Watkins for $23, I expect to return $30-ish type value -- the serious injury is past him, and even if he misses a game here or there for some other minor injury, it will be worth it. Basically like Dez and Julio, he's "elite when healthy", except not quite as elite. For $23 he's elite enough for me. Then Cooks for $32... I consider this my biggest mistake of the draft. I think that's priced at or near his ceiling. And with all the targets in NE, I'm not sure he gets enough receptions to make him worth it in PPR. I'm still happy to have him on my team, especially a DM, where there should be a couple of massive weeks. Needed someone to catch Brady's Deep Balls, anyways. After my Big 3, I'm ecstatic about the depth. Snead for $4, Garcon for $1 (!) should both push for 100 receptions each. I expect John Brown to come back. Beasley was a mistake, albeit a cheap one. Between these last 4 guys, I fully expect a blow up week here or there, or at least a really solid floor to fill in when 1 of my Big 3 have a down week. TE: Back to the the bargain bin, as intended. Not as worried about OJ Howard as others are -- Brate is a great receiver and red zone target. And Ebron is finally getting together, if only he can stay healthy, for the Lions. Departure of Boldin is huge for his TD upside -- Stafford looks to him a lot in scoring situations. DST/K: Whatever, who cares. Overall I am happy. I got star power at WR, great value and depth at WR, then good value on some safe-volume RBs. That was the plan. But I think I misfired on a few picks: I wouldn't have purchased Cooks, Beasley, or Charles, and instead would have grabbed Fournette for $25 and Crabtree/Fitz for $15. Or Pryor ($23) and Abdullah ($12). But in a DM format, maybe Cooks will pay off -- it was my first ever, so I'll learn the old fashioned way. Also I really wanted Martavis in this format, but had overspent on WRs by the time he came up. Oh well.
  6. Here are results of the June 25 PPR DM. Will post my results / analysis next.
  7. Really good post, Winky. Except I'd challenge you on this point. Bad Bengals = Good AJ. It is known.
  8. Not the OP, but I can guess. The Cleveland Browns.
  9. If he did have a Dallas type line, he'd be worthy of a first round pick. If he's going in the 4th or 5th then I think that downside is priced in fairly. How long Hill holds onto meaningful touches is the only thing that still scares me here. I feel safer with Gilly or TyMont in this range... But I wouldn't be surprised if Mixon turns in a better season than both. Arizona's offensive line wasn't dominant last year (not as bad as Cincy tho) and Johnson was still able to overcome. Such a wildcard pick here.
  10. Fair. Didn't realize the price was so different. I'd bite on Robinson there for sure.
  11. I feel the opposite. I don't see Robinson getting to 1200 and 10. His breakout year was a result of heavy volume and garbage time. Only difference between that and 2016 was the complete regression of Bortles, and perhaps the emergence of M Lee. Assume Bortles gets back on track mechanically this year, Robinson still isn't going to get the volume because the offensive philosophy has changed. I think at best he's now the #2 option in the red zone, and you're basically getting Dez Bryant lite - TD machine albeit without the volume and reception total of the first round WRs. But that's best case scenario. If everything goes well - Bortles gets better, offense gets better, they make a point to get Robinson the ball in scoring situations - then he'll deliver that third round value. I'm not gonna draft a guy if he's priced at his ceiling, like Lamar Miller was priced at rb 6 (his ceiling) last year. I'm looking for guys who are fairly or even under valued. And I'm also not looking to draft a guy who was healthy for 16 games and finished outside the top 30 at his position the year before. Something is wrong if you can go from 6th to 36th in one season. I'll let someone else take that risk in the third round. Hopkins I'm not so worried about. I assume Watson is going to get the starting job, and I know he can make all the throws. I've seen it. I'm just gonna wait to make sure he gets the starting job by the start of regular season. But this team and this offensive system have worked for him in the past. The QB situation was the only thing that killed him. I guess this just comes down to me believing in Watson, and I don't have anything to base that on besides what my own eyes saw from him in college.
  12. I didn't like Gurley last year. I thought the offensive situation was awful, but that he should still probably finish at least as an RB1, but at his high price tag that probably meant he wasn't gonna be on any of my teams. But I was criticized and then kept that opinion to myself. None of the Big 3 give me any of those concerns at all. Never has there been this much of a consensus that I can remember, and for good reason. Completely different than Gurley. That said, Bell is certainly most likely of them to experience an injury. I'd probably take him 3rd if drafting today. But he's still too good and you can't assume he gets injured so I'm still taking him with joy at 3.
  13. PPR this makes complete sense. If I play any pure PPR leagues this year and leave a draft without taking Fitzgerald, then I will have failed and deserve to lose. He's might be the best value in that format right now.
  14. 1- Good point. 2- Another one. Hadn't thought about it like that, but that's a really insightful way to think about it. 3- Ha. As if they won't be chasing 16-0. (Seriously though, another good point). Touch 'em all, we agree again. Get those thick legs rolling up the gut of a defense and watch all their energy evaporate with their misty breath. A big old bowling ball in December, getting downhill... that's how dreams are made in both fantasy and reality football. Bell v Buffalo last year was one of the most beautiful things I'd ever seen. Wait this is the 2017 RB Outlook thread, right?
  15. But then... wouldn't that also be an argument for avoiding WRs -- if QBs as a rule have less production in the cold, then so too do WRs. Yet more evidence for why you should draft 5 RBs in a row to start it off, Prez. Iron was onto something last year...