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About Chwf3rd

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  1. Kenyan Drake 2018 Season Outlook

    I mean, what did he really say? All that looks like to me is Gase saying that the 4th round rookie generally looks good in OTAs when asked about him at a mandatory press conference, not sure why anyone is attributing anything to it.
  2. Geronimo Allison 2018 Season Outlook

    Thanks for the info. I think it’s important to differentiate between the production from specifically the X and Z WRs with Rodgers instead of looking at the overall production from the top 3 WRs. I’ll do more research when im off work, but I think it would be more indicative to look at how often the X and Z WRs have produced with Rodgers (understanding that it might be a little misleading with Jordy and Adams) and then how often has Cobb produced while one of the outside starting WRs has not. Again I’ll look more into it tonight but even if you just look at the last two years Allison has seemingly always produced when Jordy or Adams has been hurt while Cobb’s production from the slot remained constant. That indicates to me that the slot WR in that offense generally has pretty capped production (absent that one big Cobb year) while the outside WRs are receiving the more profitable targets. Nevertheless, the stakes here are pretty low with Allison’s ADP and the fact that we are even having this discussion regarding his potential should indicate that he’s an awesome value
  3. Geronimo Allison 2018 Season Outlook

    I think you’re understating the value of a starting outside WR for Aaron Rodgers. Almost every year (I don’t have the time to provide full research on it) the starting outside WRs for Rodgers put up WR2/3 numbers. Even with Graham there just being on the field that much with Rodgers offers a great TD ceiling and a pretty good TD floor as well. Nobody is saying he has the upside to go 80/1200/10 but he can and should be a WR2 if he keeps the starting role outside just based on TDs alone and that’s an awesome value right now for where he’s being drafted.
  4. 2018 Biggest Busts

    Just like Jay Ajayi last year in round 1
  5. Geronimo Allison 2018 Season Outlook

    Can you please state the counter argument to Allison right now cause I don’t understand it
  6. Geronimo Allison 2018 Season Outlook

    Its not a lock but do you really see a day 3 rookie pick starting in that offense? Allison, regardless of what you think of his talent, has been in that offense for 2 years and it would take a breakout training performance from Moore, ESB, or Scantling to unseat him. I really dont get what people are missing here
  7. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion Not sure what ADP you’re looking at but in MFL he’s going 9.10
  8. Geronimo Allison 2018 Season Outlook

    He’s in the discussion for the best value in all of fantasy right now. 1) he’s set to be an outside starting WR with ARod 2) almost every time he’s filled in for Adams or Jordy he’s produced 3) the starting outside WRs for ARod almost always put up WR2-3 numbers 4) his only competition are 3 Day 3 rookies
  9. 2018 Tight End Rankings and Discussion

    The Jordan Reed/Vernon Davis combo is one of my favorite strategies this year at TE. You get the elite TE upside with Reed in round 9 or 10 and then can get Davis’ solid TE1 floor in the very last round.
  10. Deshaun Watson 2018 season outlook

    last time I'll say this but it's a 5 game sample size. Very, very, very big difference in performing at an elite level for 5 games and doing so for multiple years or even 1 full year.
  11. I get that reasoning with Watson and I guess it comes down to how highly you evaluate him but I don't agree with the point that a RB/WR/TE pick in the 5th round can't win you your league. I picked Mark Ingram in the late 4th/early 5th last year and that worked out pretty well. Maybe Miller or DT dont offer that upside but someone like Sony Michel for instance might.
  12. 2018 RB Rankings

    Standard Tier 1 - the God tier 1. Todd Gurley - young, high usage, great offense, great talent 2. Ezekial Elliot - in PPR he gets knocked down a little but I just feel supremely confident in him behind that OL plus with his durability 3. LeVeon Bell - only behind Gurley + Elliot because I have a sinking feeling that the wheels could fall off at any moment given his workload history + the contract situation + his lack of explosive plays last year 4. David Johnson - the Arizona offense being terrible scares me a little but he should be the centerpiece and his passing game usage makes up for the poor supporting cast a little Tier 2 - solid RB1s 5. SaQuon Barkley - transcendent talent on an improved offense who should garner similar usage to Gurley/Bell/DJ 6. Alvin Kamara - I think the efficiency goes down a little bit but the Ingram suspension helps + the Saints offense offers a good floor 6. Kareem Hunt - 3 down back in an Andy Reid offense 7. Leonard Fournette - I think his upside is capped unlike all the guys above him but the offense is built around him Tier 3 - RB1s with some risk 8. Melvin Gordon - his production warrants him being in Tier 2 but I'm not just not a fan of the player 9. Devonta Freeman - lead back in what should be a top offense behind a great OL 10. Joe Mixon - this is where I take a leap of faith in my own player evaluation as I think Mixon is one of the most talented RBs in the league and I think the offense rebounds in a big way this year 11. Dalvin Cook - love the player and the situation but coming off an ACL injury 12. Jordan Howard - still has no competition for early down work + Nagy brings the RB friendly Andy Reid system to Chicago Tier 4 - high upside/big risk 13. Jerrick McKinnon - lands in maybe the most RB friendly situation in the entire league but not a fan of him as a player 14. LeSean McCoy - he scares the crap out of me and I'm fine missing on him if he hits to avoid the risk Tier 5 - young RBs with opportunity & Mark Ingram 15. Christian McCaffery - his production was so scheme specific last year that the OC change has me worried 16. Kenyan Drake - I wasn't a fan of him at Alabama but he flashed elite ability when he got the workhorse role last year 17. Mark Ingram - could be a huge steal here and I could see myself moving him above CMC later in the summer 18. Rashaad Penny - looks like SEA is going to give him a huge workload on a productive offense 19. Derrius Guice - love the talent plus the early down work should be valuable on Washington's offense 20. Ronald Jones - landed in one of the best situations for a RB and his only competition is Peyton Barber 21. Derrick Henry - his stock is very volatile to me right now with the Dion Lewis signing 22. Sony Michel - high draft capital and landed in maybe the most productive offense in the NFL that loves to run in the redzone 23. Kerryon Johnson - like the talent + draft capital + productive offense but scared of Riddick and Blount 24. Alex Collins - looked great last year but strange that he couldn't even make the Seahawks roster plus Kenneth Dixon is back from injury 25. Jay Ajayi - like the player a lot but I don't see PHI going away from the committee
  13. I can point to a lot of QBs (Bortles especially comes to mind) with very high month long production who then regressed to the mean. The best argument for taking Watson that early is that the X percentage chance that he in fact is one of the 3 or 4 QBs that actually make a difference in fantasy is worth taking him in the 4th/5th rounds and missing out on a strong RB3 or WR3 in that spot. I would understand that if someone is extremely confident in Watson although I would strongly disagree. What? You were arguing against my point that there isn't a big difference between Watson and Matt Ryan by pointing to the consensus ranking of the players instead of offering your own analysis.
  14. Why is that relevant? Make your own arguments
  15. Deshaun Watson 2018 season outlook

    Its absurdly high just like his ADP right now. He has a 5 game sample size with a completely unsustainable TD rate and is coming off a torn ACL.