Chwf3rd

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About Chwf3rd

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  1. 2 QB League Strategy

    QB value goes down significantly in 10 team 2QB leagues. I would just aim for 3 safe starters that aren't in jeopardy of losing their jobs. Thus I like to follow the flow of the draft, if teams are waiting on QBs then I wait until I can scoop up QBs in the 15-25 range or if teams are pouncing earlier I'll take them earlier as well but I still aim for 3 QBs in that range.
  2. 2018 RB Rankings

    Forgot to address this point but I feel like I need to. If you drafted Fournette at 6 last year, CMC in PPR, or TRich or Gurley their rookie years those would have absolutely been great picks. Just because someone doesn’t finish as the RB6 doesn’t mean they aren’t worth being drafted as the RB6 as it’s more about minimizing risk and avoiding pitfalls to me.
  3. 2018 RB Rankings

    You’re right, the 2016 Cowboys are not the 2018 Giants. Nobody is arguing that. Volume tends to be the best predictor of fantasy success in my opinion so I place a huge emphasis on trying to predict it and I’m not sure why you’re downplaying it’s importance. Volume generally a production floor and that’s why it’s important to my argument regarding how Barkley is actually a safer pick even though he’s a rookie. Again, those 2nd tier RBs are all really close to me so if someone is more comfortable with a non rookie that’s fine. My point was about refuting the argument that Barkley presents that much more risk just because he’s a rookie. Feel free to take the last word.
  4. 2018 RB Rankings

    Why would we draft those players in fantasy drafts where they were drafted in the actual draft? I don’t get the framework you used at all and it’s incredibly strange. Every single one one of those RBs except Spiller matched or exceeded their rookie year ADPs. The point of showing them was to show the amount of volume top 10 RBs generally receive. Not sure why Barkley would be any different. I don’t think it’s crazy to have that 2nd tier of RBs in any order I’m just making the argument against dismissing Barkley just because he’s a rookie and I think the production of former top 10 RBs does a good job of refuting that.
  5. 2018 RB Rankings

    Foreman may be out the whole year but don't forget that Miller looked awful last year and began to succeed serious touches to Alfred Blue. Week 17: Miller (8 touches), Blue (22) Week 16: Miller (11), Blue (16) Week 15: Miller (11), Blue (12) Week 14: Miller (19), Blue was hurt Week 13: Miller (19), Blue (5) Week 12: Miller (20), Blue (10) I'm not willing to buy the weight loss training camp stories and suddenly believe everything will change.
  6. 2018 RB Rankings

    I've watched all of those guys play and Barkely is at least as talented to me. All of this is a projection and 50% of the 1st round RBs will likely disappoint. I feel plenty safe with Barkley given the historical usage of top 10 RB picks. The risk of every single talent evaluator missing on Barkely is about even to me as the various risks surrounding Gordon (efficiency catching up), Fournette (injuries), Kamara (usage and efficiency regression), and Hunt (reduction in workload plus new QB).
  7. 2018 RB Rankings

    If Zeke was one of a few highly drafted RBs to produce his rookie year then I would agree that his situation was unique given the OL, but there is a really good track record of highly drafted RBs receiving heavy volume their rookie years and I'm not sure why Barkely would be any different. Plus I think the addition of Solder and Will Hernandez are pretty solid as well. 2017 Draft (1.04) Leonard Fournette - 268/1040/9, 36/302/1 (1.10) Christian McCaffery - 117/435/2, 80/651/5 2016 Draft (1.04) Ezekial Elliot - 322/1631/15, 32/363/1 2015 (1.10) Todd Gurley - 229/1106/10, 21/188 2012 (1.03) Trent Richardson - 267/950/11, 51/367/1 2010 (1.09) CJ Spiller - 74/283/0, 24/157/1 CJ Spiller is the one guy there who didn't receive a significant workload.
  8. 2018 RB Rankings

    Im trying not to overreact to 1 mediocre preseason game and training camp noise but his ranking is definitely fragile.
  9. 2018 RB Rankings

    Updated Standard RB Rankings Tier 1 1. Ezekial Elliot - has the potential for a historical usage rate this season, feels incredibly safe to me 2. Todd Gurley 3. LeVeon Bell - the decrease in efficiency and usage over time scares me a little bit 4. David Johnson - last out of the four because he plays on the worst offense Tier 2 5. SaQuon Barkley - history of Top 5 RB production provides floor and his talent provides ceiling 6. Leonard Fournette - awesome on per game basis, improved OL, locked into huge usage 7. Alvin Kamara - usage scares me a little but the talent is transcendent 8. Melvin Gordon - huge usage on great offense 9. Kareem Hunt - the changes to the offense provide a little instability but still RB1 for Andy Reid 10. Dalvin Cook - on pace for crazy production last year + believe in the talent. Maybe a worry about preseason injuries to OL. Tier 3 11. Devonta Freeman - a little worried about the efficiency decline but the entire ATL offense should rebound 12. Joe Mixon - leap of faith for me believing in the talent 13. Jordan Howard - could see usage decline coming from run heavy John Fox scheme in a scheme he doesnt fit OR could explode as centerpiece of an improved and modernized offense 14. Jerrick McKinnon - dont really like the player but in one of the best situations for RBs in football Tier 4 15. LeSean McCoy - not really sure what to do with him 16. Derrick Henry - not 3 down back but TD potential is huge and Lewis can easily get hurt at any time 17. Mark Ingram - with all the rookies falling off a little bit I'm willing to wait the 4 games for Ingram's RB1 production 18. Christian McCaffery - dont love drafting him but solid floor as receiver 19. Ronald Jones - trying to not overreact to the negative buzz out of training camp - still uber talented 2nd round pick for a good offense only competing against Peyton Barber 20. Rashaad Penny - similar to Jones, think he's in a committee at the worst 21. Kenyan Drake - he looked so good last year but doesnt seem like Gase wants to hand the keys to him 22. Kerryon Johnson - lots of competition but love the talent and the offense, plus I dont see a team trading up to draft a RB in the 2nd round and not letting him get work 23. Jay Ajayi - are the Eagles committed to their RB usage patterns from last year or was Ajayi just put on ice because he was acquired during the season? 24. Alex Collins - still don't believe in the player but the news about Dixon being on the roster bubble helps 25. Jamaal Williams - has lead to be lead RB in ARod offense 26. Marlon Mack - see above but the hamstring injury is a little scary 27. Sony Michel - would be a lot higher but for the injury 28. Lamar Miller - thought he looked absolutely toast last year and could easily lose his job to Alfred Blue but opportunity + situation is so great 29. Tevin Coleman - RB3 floor and RB1 ceiling if Freeman gets hurt 30. Dion Lewis - upside in standard not that high and dont think he can hold up to big workloads Tier 5 31. Rex Burkhead - could be RB1 in New England depending on Michel's health 32. Marshawn Lynch - looked good last year and Gruden wants to run 33. Royce Freeman - not sure he even wins the job but upside is big if he does Tier 6 34. Carlos Hyde - still love the talent 35. Devontae Booker - see Royce Freeman 36. Rob Kelley - now the RB1 for a pretty good offense and great OL 37. Isaiah Crowell - could be RB1 for Jets 38. Chris Carson - looked really good last year and the hype is strong but dont believe they make him a bellcow over Penny 39. CJ Anderson - really, really weird he came in behind Artis Payne this weekend so need to monitor that 40. Peyton Barber - betting that the TB buzz is accurate 41. Ty Montgomery - worth the gamble as the GB job has so much potential 42. Aaron Jones - see above 43. Jordan Wilkins - may need to move him higher with the Marlon Mack injury but a little worrisome that he came in behind Robert Turbin 44. Nick Chubb - not a fan of the player 45. Doug Martin - Gruden likes him a lot, Lynch could easily fall apart at his age, starting Raiders RB should be productive behind that OL 46. Matt Breida - injury doesnt help but I want players on the 49ers and don't totally trust McKinnon 47. Nyheim Hines - I want players on the Colts offense and lots of opportunity available 48. Tarik Cohen - dont think the upside in standard is there 49. Chris Thompson - Guice injury helps 50. Terrence West/Jonathan Williams - whichever RB wins could be a high end RB2 for first 4 weeks
  10. 2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

    Updated Standard Ranks Tier 1 1. Antonio Brown - the only WR who can compete with the top 4 RBs Tier 2 2. Julio Jones - pretty safe targets/yards plus the TDs should come back 3. OBJ - has never disappointed 4. DeAndre Hopkins - locked into huge target share 5. Michael Thomas - huge target share plus TDs should come back 6. Devontae Adams - great floor as WR1 for ARod plus huge ceiling 7. AJ Green - disappointing last year but still believe in the talent and CIN offense should improve 8. Keenan Allen - huge target share with Rivers 9. Mike Evans - huge steal at end of 2nd/early 3rd 10. TY Hilton - my favorite target at WR this year Tier 3 11. Amari Cooper - believe in the talent and should get huge number of targets 12. Tyreek Hill - efficiency regression scares me but he’ll always be a hyper efficient WR with his skill set and I can’t see Reid going away from him 13. Stefon Diggs - I believe in the talent and his PPG is always solid 14. Adam Theilen - new QB scares me more with him than Diggs 15. Doug Baldwin - injury scares me Tier 4 16. Larry Fitzgerald - low TD upside in that offense plus the risk of decline is always there 17. Chris Hogan - the last man standing for Brady 18. Alshon Jeffery - should get over 120 targets for Wentz 19. Marvin Jones - thought he showed a lot of WR1 traits last year and earned Stafford’s trust 20. Golden Tate - safe production 21. Jarvis Landry - looks like the alpha WR in Cleveland 22. Brandin Cooks - worry is that he takes on the Watkins decoy role 23. Allen Robinson - like the player a lot but don’t like that it’s his 1st year in a new system, coming off ACL, with unproven QB 24. Sammy Watkins - still believe in the talent and love Reid’s system 25. JuJu Smith - low upside with targets capped but still solid floor in that offense Tier 5 26. Demaryious Thomas all about the targets 27. Robert Woods - maybe the role doesn’t change at all 28. Julian Edelman - think he steps into the same role when he comes back 29. Michael Crabtree - potentially looking at big target numbers 30. Josh Gordon - training camp absence is terrifying and Tyrod + Landry severely limit his upside 31. Pierre Garcon - reports about Goodwin scare me, could move down Tier 6 32. Corey Davis - worth the risk at this point 33. Marquise Goodwin - if he actually is the WR1 for Jimmy G then this is a steal although not sure if his skill set will every translate to a high volume WR 34. Randall Cobb - targets could increase significantly 35. Devin Funchess - volume dependent and DJ Moore could supplant him 36. Kelvin Benjamin - should get a lot of targets 37. Jamison Crowder - not that much competition in the offense but not sure if he can ever take the next step and become a standard league relevant WR 38. Sterling Shepard - targets in jeopardy but he’s really talented and people are overlooking how productive he’s been 39. Robby Anderson - benefited fom volume last year and could easily miss the first 4 games 40. Emmanuel Sanders - might be too low but his targets declined last year relative to DTs but maybe that changes with a new QB who has done well with quick small types 41. DeVante Parker - bad reports from camp but with the risk at this point 42. DJ Moore - don’t like rookie WRs but only competition at WR is Funchess 43. Will Fuller - don’t think his efficiency continues 44. Josh Doctson - worth the gamble with target opportunity + draft capital 45. Geronimo Allison - could be starting outside WR for ARod 46. Ryan Grant - see above but with healthy Andrew Luck 47. Jordy Nelson - locked in WR2 with Oakland 48. Cooper Kupp - id rather take the chance on upside with these late picks 49. Tyler Lockett - might move him up a lot depending on Baldwin’s injury 50. Kenny Golliday - flashed and on a productive offense
  11. Preseason Week 1 Game Thread

    Are Hines and Wilkins hurt?
  12. Preseason Week 1 Game Thread

    Josh Allen is certainly entertaining to watch
  13. Preseason Week 1 Game Thread

    I really, really want Josh Allen to turn out to be great and Lamar Jackson terrible
  14. Preseason Week 1 Game Thread

    I meant bad for his WRs, should’ve been more clear with that
  15. Preseason Week 1 Game Thread

    NFL fans/twitter killed Josh Allen for his completion percentage and accuracy but gave Lamar a pass for the same issues.