sngehl01

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sngehl01 last won the day on January 23

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About sngehl01

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  1. Trade lots of future for win now?

    He already did, mate. He was providing a follow up for how it turned out (which I think is cool). Glad to hear it. I didn't chime in before, but I would have been hesitant to pull the trigger because of Whitley's ETA. Of course, that's a different story now than it was 3 months ago. I was thinking you were asking for the offseason, and with the chances Whitley is in the rotation sooner rather than later... but if it brought home a trophy it was well worth it. Congrats.
  2. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    Agree. But even prolific base stealers have trouble maintaining value without chipping in elsewhere. Hamilton is an exception. Few guys are solely speed demons with no other tools, otherwise they are a fourth OF (Rajai Davis, for example). Dee Gordon is another who breaks the mold. But those guys are few and far between. Each "generation" of player has like 1 guy like that, 2 tops. Otherwise, they are naturally filtered out of relevance due to playing time concerns on their parent club.
  3. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    I have checked it. He was the #64 player on the player rater for OF in 2016, #89 in 2015. Like I said above... If you bothered quoting what I said right after that, you would have seen where I noted his perceived value didn't track his actual value. The knock against a guy like Hamilton is he's a 1 trick pony. He does that 1 thing so extremely well it carries him elsewhere. He accounts for a larger share of all the SB's in the MLB than any player does with any other counting stat. The same can be said about Khris Davis, but so much of his value is derived from his over-the-fences approach, which naturally help his R and RBI totals as well. The first Chris Davis is a better example. In 2016, he put up a 99/38/84/1/.221 standard 5 cat line. Hamilton went for 69/3/17/58/.260. 17 RBI's. Just incredible. Hamilton was #64. Davis wasn't top 150. If not for steals, Davis smashes Hamilton. Davis's approach elevated his other #'s. But Hamilton was close in OBP (.321 to Davis's .332). Hamilton hit for a much higher average, not that I think it's highly relevant. But Davis killed Hamilton in OPS, .792 to .664. Do you truly believe that based on those #'s, Davis should be considered so much more valuable than Hamilton? I do not. There's value in having a guy like Hamilton on the bases. His paltry #'s is, in part, due to the awful lineup around him. Javier Baez, for example, scored 101 runs with a .326 OBP this year. Gardner scored 95 with a .322 OBP. Ozzie Albies crossed the plate 105 times with a .305 OBP. The point is, my argument is, and continues to be, that selecting OPS as a category over AVG highly weights the focus to players who hit a lot of longballs. OBP does as well, but not to the same degree. A guy like Hamilton, who is a liability pretty much everywhere except for SB's, has some value because of his ability to run. Mitigate that and he was no value. Which is fine by me, honestly, because I would never be in on Hamilton for that very reason. But scoring HR and then scoring OPS throws the league towards sluggers, which is already skewed that way. No reason to further exaggerate that. That's all I'm saying. If HR weren't a stat, and you did OPS instead, fine. But double dipping in that regard is what I don't care for. Guys with the HR totals tend to be higher in R/RBI too, already, giving them OPS also just skews it too much for me.
  4. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    We can argue circles around Hamiltons value (or lack of) all day. Objectively, he never held much value in my cat leagues because of his stats. He was a guy whose actual value exceeded his perceived value, always, in my leagues. Your experience may be different. However, the guys who separate themselves at the top do so because of their ability to run. A guy like Khris Davis gets a huge boost in OPS leagues because of his top 10 slugging percentage, nevermind the fact he had the 87th worst OBP in the league. He's already a huge + in HR/RBI, and making it an OPS league chucks him up even higher. That's why I prefer OBP. Stats he already stuffs are already weighted in his favor, adding OPS instead of OBP makes a guy like him even more valuable, and I think that translates to value on the field for a real team. I know we are just managing fake baseball teams here, but I think the goal is to emulate the real thing. To try to closer value guys to the real thing. I think OBP does that better than OPS. There are places on a team for guys like Whit Merrifield, Marte, and Lorenzo Cain. All of which had better OBP's and far worse OPS's. They also provided an asset that has value, speed. I think making OPS instead of OBP or AVG further drives the value away from the guys who can run, and the other stats already do that enough. A guy like Marte at 80/20/80/30/.330 OBP has legitimate value. Skewing it towards OPS would torpedo him and guys like him who make their money running and pitching in everywhere else. Trea Turner would take a big hit also. I just like OBP because OPS favors hitters in a similar way another cat already does. Higher HR tends to = higher OPS (unless you just never walk). I'd have to play a season of it to change my mind, that's just how I'd expect it to be.
  5. Early talk for my Keepers

    There's no way I keep Adames, Skaggs, Bieber, of Jeffress. I would consider going with Leclerc. I would definitely go with Seager and Aguilar. Nimmo is hard to justify with already keeping 2 OF for only 3 spots. Devers I'm not completely sold on as of yet, but could be an exceptional value for a couple of years still if he breaks out. LeClerc has the opportunity to be topt 6-10 closer (I mean, technically he has #1 upside I guess, but realistically I expect him to be in the back half of the top 10). In a 16 team league there's value in having one locked up late. Adames isn't an option for me. I lean Leclerc here. Slightly. Only because I don't LOVE any of your other options for the last spot. For the minor leaguer : For me it's easily Josh James. I refuse to hold prospects for God-knows-how-long to get unknown production. Too many guys come up and just don't produce right off the bat (Kyle Tucker this year, for example). Rodgers was extremely underwhelming this year, and may not have a place anyway (even with DJ gone, Hampson will get ample opportunity at 2B, as will McMahon possibly). I am worried about Rodgers very low walk rate. To me that makes him volatile against major league pitching, even though the K rate is nice, I like to see a few more walks. His BA was poor, his power was moderate. I would not keep Rodgers. I would not keep Sheffield either. It's less to do with Sheff and more to do with... Josh James. He's already shown it in the majors. Was better in the minors than Sheffield. Should have every opportunity to lock down an opening day rotation spot. Sheff could, also, but it's more doubtful given NYY is likely to bring in pitching (where Houston just let a couple walk). James has had success as both a starter and reliever. You can get an immediate return on this investment. Just my .02. Good luck.
  6. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    I just disagree as a whole with this. Hamilton doesn't have much value even in 5x5. He's a drain everywhere else. A guy like trea, altuve, Joram, Whit, etc who won't kill you in the other 4 veco e immensely valuable because... Well they are. No one feels good drafting Hamilton, and they know if they did they screwed the pooch in steals. Even coupled with a guy like judge you are still hitting the break even point IMO for the most part. Hambone has never had any value in any cat league I've been in. Ever. But this is why I prefer fantasy point scoring. You can weight things how you want so winning SB doesn't = winning HR.
  7. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    I don't disagree. It just depends what you want out of your league.
  8. OBP vs AVG Leagues

    I don't like this. Tried it once. Home runs are already a cat, OPS tends to double dip on those guys. Heck, even OBP tends to favor them slightly. OPS really does. Not a big fan of doing that.
  9. My favorite league is 18 team, 40 man rosters, keep 24. Fantasy point scoring. No $. Keepers are straight keep 18, no rounds lost based on where they were drafted, no inflation to track, etc. Have done many formats, it continues to be my favorite. I would say 12-14 teams is fine. I would say do max roster spots so guys can stash prospects. I also say just allow who's in the player pool, not track guys in an excel sheet. I say keep 16-20 and roll with that. Let's you keep pretty much your entire lineup + pitching rotation and a few stashes. Also makes the top teams send back some talent (not great, but useful). The fewer keepers = the easier to rebalance the league yearly.
  10. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Agree. Really, you are going to base everything on the second half of one season? I mean, yeah, that's not great, but funny how you don't care about his first half with a .323 batting average and 34 XBH (in a 90 game sample vs a 54 game second half sample). He essentially hit .320/.354/.458 for 2/3 of a season. His other third wasn't great, but guys were worse. He's 28 years old on top of it. And he can play 2B. In his his 3 years he's had an average between .300 and .319, an OBP between .341 and .368, and slugged between .415 and .499. Is he going to fetch a couple of top rate prospects? No way. But the guy has value and would help a team in a big way, as well as bring back a couple of legitimate assets. I could see him going to a team like the Dodgers who may need Seager insurance and a full time 2B. FWIW : his last 3 years combined stats would give him a .308 BA, .353 OBP, .449 slugging. He's going to give you 30+ doubles and 10-15 HR at a near minimum, coupled with a strong BA and solid OBP. Not sure what's to hate here... especially at 28 years old, we may not have seen his best seasons yet. Even if we haven't, you'd have to be happy with what he's done 3 years now. Jean Segura was a 4.3 WAR guy this year (ESPN). The value per 1 WAR is valued (roughly) at 10-20 million per (call it 15 if you want). You have to look at it over the life of his contract. So 5 years @ 75 million divided by 10 million = 7.5 WAR. If he can be a 1.5 WAR player every year, he's worth his contract. He's much better than that, in my opinion. Well worth his contract.
  11. Alex Bregman 2019 Outlook

    That was in that last 123 games. Had 51 doubles on the season. How many guys truly have a high floor if he doesn't? He played 157 games. His first 78 he batted .272/.376/.490 with a wRC+ of 142. The dude was hardly killing anyone the first "half." He still had 13 homers, 48 R, 47 RBI in that sample. Guy has a career .282/.366/.500 line. You can slice up his "bad" times all you want, but he's a developing player who has overcome some slumps. With his batted ball profile, plate approach, great lineup around him, and ability to steal bases absolutely makes him a high floor guy. It doesn't mean he's a lock to return first-round value (who is, really?).
  12. Incredible 2018 after a pretty slow start to the season. 1 HR and 9 2B in his first 34 games. After that? 123 games, 42 2B, 30 HR, 93 R, 91 RBI, 74 BB, 66 K, 7 SB, .295/.400/.581 slash line. 169 wRC+ Comparing his #'s for the last year and a half put him right up there with the elites of the game. He's going to cost an early pick in 2019 (likely the back end of the first round). The SS/3B eligibility make that a bit safer of a pick, as it gives some flexibility later in the draft. Never a bad thing. Steamer has a pretty pathetic projection for the kind, in my opinion. The projection : 150 games, 25 HR, 94 R, 86 RBI, 11 SB, 11.5% BB%, 13.2% K% I think you can buy him as a high floor, high ceiling guy. My "somewhat reasonable" expectation would be .285 batting average, 28 home runs, 100 runs, 90 RBI, 10 SB. I think that's a near floor across the board, but with upside as a .300/35/110/100/15 guy for standard 5x5 scoring, with a shot to maintain a .400 OBP, but obviously more likely to be around .380.
  13. Trade Mookie

    Agree, that's what I was saying. Mondesi + a $43 player are two guys you are pretty tied to throughout the year. Mookie + a $1 flier has the chance for a real explosion of value, but if the guy is cow dung you have no remorse to cut him for who pops off the wire. It may not be more appealing on draft day but throughout the season it will usually pay off, IMO. Too much risk on what a $43 player is after inflation too.
  14. Trade Mookie

    Without knowing what others are going for and who is going to be available then absolutely yes. The thing with leagues like this is guys with a low value (let's say an owner had judge for $1 before the 2017 season) can justify running the prices up on others. Guys don't keep the best players always, but the best values. This allows them to invest that money back into the draft, paying more than they would have in a non keeper format because they have such extraordinary savings at their other positions. And knowing this settles it for me. Mookie is the same price Springer went for. Stanton was 61. There's obviously quite a bit of surplus value here, and you are locked into one of the best players in the game.
  15. Trade Mookie

    Sorry, a joke. Yeah, I understand that part about the worthless spots. But Mookie + a "worthless" guy is probably going to still be a better play than two mid range guys, depending on how much you can hit on lower level guys. The difference is Mookie + that worthless guy give you some flexibility to add a guy from the wire who gets called up and is surprisingly good and wasn't expected to be. If you roster two mid range guys, those are two roster spots locked up, and your pony is hitched to that cart. Give me Mookie 10 out of 10 times here. Disclaimer : I'm not sold on Mondesi, and he was one of the guys I had as a sleeper coming into the year. So much so that I requested he be added to the player pool on ottoneu, only to find out he was there but his name was different (don't ask me why).