Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins
Brian Dozier’s well-hit .090, less than half of expectation. He’s just been bad. His location performance is a D across the board. He’s staying patient, but is that a great thing? Why take 75% of first pitches (average is 41%) and 39.3% of pitches in the zone (average is 23%)? The goal for hitters is to hit strikes. He’s taking 44.5% of pitches in the zone when he’s ahead of the count — and don’t tell me these are all quality strikes. He’s also taking 35.4% of fastball strikes (average is 23%). Yes, it’s fair to say he did similar things across the board last year. But things are not working out now so why not be more aggressive and exploit what pitchers think your tendencies are instead of leaning into them even more?
An odd quirk about Dozier is that he has seven road homers. But he’s slugging .217 at home (third-worst in baseball). It’s safe to say that Dozier peaked in 2016. He’s like Ozuna in that the expectation should be his career rate going forward — forget about the last two years. His ZiPS for the rest of the year is .252/.334/.467 with 22 homers and 10 steals. I’d be thrilled with that if I owned Dozier, so I guess I’m taking the under. But the combo potential and second-base qualification forces us to stick with him.