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  1. Pats/Chiefs

    As a Patriots fan those are the types of games that can be frustrating to watch, when they're struggling to find any soft spots in the middle of the field McDaniels seems to love calling double-passes and deep heaves on 3rd and 4. It's these kind of match-ups where not having Josh Gordon or any type of over-the-top threat bites New England, if KC is playing effective man coverage and Gronk is no longer a consistent pass catching threat James White can effectively be neutralized in the short passing game. I agree, if New England wins I'd expect it to be on the back of a 25ish carry game from Sony, if he can help establish a play-action passing game early New England *should* be able to control the clock.. but regardless they'll need Mahomes and Co. to get off to a slow start like they did against NE in the regular season.. some more Gronk run-blocking magic would certainly help too.
  2. Pats/Chiefs

    I don't hate this prediction based off of these metrics. As much as I want to see the Patriots win its impossible to ignore their struggles on the road this year and how KC is one of the stadiums that really provides an advantageous home field advantage. I just don't know how Josh McDaniels and Bill are going to construct an offensive game plan. I could very well see them attempt the "run the ball over and over to keep mahomes off the field" game plan but there's such an inherent risk trying that on the road vs at home.. The Patriots have also proven stubborn when trying this game plan as well by not abandoning it until its too late (see the lions game this year). The Chiefs don't have that one variable to really overcome in this game other than dealing with the cold, which isn't substantial enough of a variable to swing predictions towards new England IMO. New England has to play a perfect game and still hope that Mahomes comes down to earth a bit in order to get to the Super Bowl, anythings possible but the Patriots have quite the uphill battle on Sunday
  3. Pats/Chiefs

    That's kinda cherry picking scenarios to benefit one side of the argument by extrapolating stats and hand picking the 2009 season as your comparison because Brady was essentially too good in 2007 (also completely ignoring the fact that Cassel was sacked 47(!) times in '08 compared to 16 for Brady in 09). I mean in 2009 the entire coaching staff was changed up (including McDaniels going to coach the Broncos) and Brady was coming off an ACL tear.. we can always nit pick scenarios to benefit our argument, you see? You could also just as easily make the argument that 09 should be viewed as the negative outlier for Brady because in 2010 he went right back to throwing 36 TDs, only 4 INTs and just under 4K yards... all with substantially less attempts than in 09. Meanwhile, this thread has gone wildly off the rails, hand up, that one is partially on me for getting into the whole Brady "scheme" thing. But anyways, I'm really curious to see what defense adjustment Andy Reid makes compared to his team's efforts vs. the Patriots in the regular season... Also if Damien Williams can come close to replicating what Kareem Hunt has been able to do against the Patriots.
  4. Pats/Chiefs

    Yeah but they also had as many rushing TDs as they did passing (21) and nearly 2300 yards rushing as a team. You compare that to the two years that sandwich the 2008 season and it's a pretty substantial difference.
  5. Pats/Chiefs

    Yeah but that's kind of using loose logic/speculation. Like I could say "well the Patriots had beaten the Saints last year (and Brady shredded them apart) so I think if Diggs hadn't made that play the Patriots would've won the Super Bowl against the Saints." and it would hold just as much merit.
  6. Pats/Chiefs

    Yes, the infamous Matt Cassel argument. Go look at Cassel's 2008 numbers, they were pretty rough, definitely not Brady like numbers at all (they're statistically on par with Brady's worst season(s) in the NFL). I also remember watching those games and Cassel wasn't asked to do nearly as much as Brady is asked to do on a yearly basis, the Patriots were winning games despite Cassel being at QB not because of him. I mean he had less than half the amount of TDs Brady had the year prior with a similar roster... and this is in a league where QBs are capable of over-producing on any given year.. look at Case Keenum, Nick Foles, Derek Carr (IMO), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kerry Collins, Jake Plummer, etc. I understand that this is the quintessential "scheme" argument, but out of context it's not a very valid point. It really revolves around the idea that Belichick is a great coach and you need to turn a blind eye to what Brady has done from an execution stand-point through out the years... I fail to see how that is a knock on Brady, by that logic we can only say a QB is great if he plays for a bad or mediocre coach. Big time, especially in a best of 1 playoff format.. Sure, Brees may have won 5 rings with the Pats, he may have also won 0 we'll never know. Just like what if Diggs didn't catch that ball last year, what if McCarthy had a pair against the Seahawks, or what if countless things had played out differently both for and against the Patriots in their Super Bowls. It really is hard to dictate the GOAT in certain regards, but ultimately we can only argue with the facts that we actually have.
  7. Pats/Chiefs

    I'll never understand this argument. The "scheme" still needs a cerebral QB to operate, it utilizes one of the strengths that makes Brady so much superior to his counterparts. He's never had the strongest arm, never been light on his feet, and has generally always had inconsistencies with the deep ball but what he's always made up for those deficiencies with is his ability to read defenses and make the correct decisions. Sure he hasn't had the most incredible year but that's mostly by standards that he has set for himself, Phil Rivers has very similar numbers to Brady this year across the board and he had been talked as a dark-horse MVP candidate whereas Brady is being put out to pasture. It's the hyperbolic and hive-mind mentality of sports talk, several talking heads say "Brady's done, he can't throw anymore, yadda yadda" and that sparks tons of people to automatically come to that same conclusion. The fact this one year is causing people to rethink his legacy is crazy, it's something mostly generated by pure numbers without reconsidering everything he's done contextually throughout his years in the NFL. I've even seen quite a few people have the audacity to compare Peyton's last year to Brady's 2018... again, crazy talk There's lots of good QBs in NFL history (molten take, I know), with so many variables between them it really boils down to what you personally value most in a QB.. some like Rodgers arm talent, some like Peyton's near impossible cerebral abilities, others might prefer Montana's playoff success, many favor Brady's championships and overall drive.. We have no true GOAT, just a good round of forum/bar arguments to be made.
  8. Tom Brady 2018 Outlook

    He hasn't looked nearly as bad this year as people are making it out to seem, yesterday's game was a good example of this. His stats have been a little wonky due to New England's propensity to run in the redzone this season (and he has made a few more mistakes than his general legendary self) but if he were to have 4-5 more TDs on the year I think people would be calmer on their "father time" takes. His arm strength to me is about where it's been over the last couple of seasons, those that were claiming he looks like Peyton did in his last season are either not actually watching the Pats play and are hive-mind thinking or don't actually recall how bad Peyton's arm looked that year.
  9. Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

    Touchdown saves the day! A tough match up was salvaged by the Browns staff continuing to factor Chubb as an offensive focal piece in the red zone. An odd instance of those saying it was crazy to bench chubb and those questioning to start him both being proved as valid arguments
  10. Matt Breida 2018 Outlook

    I was also thinking about this not long ago as I'm in a similar situation.. What I would imagine, based on pure speculation, is that McKinnon and Breida will co-exist next year in the backfield with there being some sort of 60-40 split between the two. To me it just seems like the most logical way for SF to operate, both have a knack for getting hurt but are also play makers when they are on the field (although this is/will be a hot topic discussion regarding McKinnon's abilities) I think limiting them to around 12 touches each per game seems like the safest bet. Breida just hasn't shown enough durability this season for me to think they would give him a workhorse type of treatment. Now of course this does assume that McKinnon even returns, I believe there was a quote from Shanahan earlier this year basically stating that both RBs would play a role next season so for the sake of argument I'm going to guess they retain McKinnon for one more season.
  11. Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

    I really don't see why it's unreasonable to consider sitting Chubb this week, especially for those in a must-win situation. Odds are since Chubb was a late season acquisition for most you're likely also rostering a middling guy like Lamar Miller, Aaron Jones, Mark Ingram, etc.. Chubb definitely has volume on his side and could easily find the end-zone again to make up for the bad match-up but his potential floor should be viewed realistically. Lest we forget it took 28 carries for Chubb to accumulate 84 rushing yards against one of the worst run defenses this year, that's a much easier pill to swallow since he scored 2 touchdowns. Don't get me wrong, I'm all aboard the Chubb train this week and have him locked but I wouldn't call it crazy to sit him either if you have a respectable alternative.
  12. Aaron Rodgers 2018 Outlook

    In my opinion the thing that really separates Rodgers from the other elites in a negative way is his mentality and attitude. He hasn't consistently looked like he's had fun since 2011, often times he appears as though he really doesn't want to be playing at all.. This year especially he has devolved into Jay Cutler attitude wise. He's always seemingly complaining to one of his WRs after incompletions or his to linemen after he takes a sack.. and not in the animated "fire 'em up" way like Brady but more in a "asking your significant other what's wrong and they roll their eyes, let out a big sigh, and saying 'nothing'" kind of way. His leadership has been blasted quite a bit in the past by former teammates in them saying it's always someone else's fault and he never will accept his flaws/mistakes and it's becoming more and more apparent why they would say such things. He's clearly talented enough to carry a team to wins as we've seen in playoff games but it just really looks like he doesn't care at all this year... maybe he's anticipating a coaching change and a fresh start too
  13. Mike McCarthy 2018 Outlook

    Unfortunately though this is the exact mentality that's keeping McCarthy around garnering disappointing results for the Packers. You're certainly not wrong in that GB could end up with a worse candidate than McCarthy but I think at this point that's a gamble that needs to be strongly considered given that it's pretty clear what MM brings to the table as a coach and it seemingly just isn't working anymore. McCarthy refuses to adapt to the modern NFL or use the players that he has to the best of their strengths, I think that is a bigger issue than what position the Packers draft in each year. The lack of Aaron Jones consistent involvement, relying on rookie WRs to create downfield separation rather than giving them more quick rhythm routes, not developing a true pass catching RB when all the best NFL teams right now heavily feature one, etc... And that's not even touching on poor clock management or the fear that he seemingly coaches with. I mentioned this in a player thread a week or two ago but Green Bay is so reliant on what worked for the passing game back in 2010/2011 that it's become their Achilles heel to an extent.. They were capable of running vanilla routes back then because when the play broke down Rodgers had a cast of pass catchers in which he had great chemistry with (Driver, Jennings, Jones, Finley, Nelson), that's not the case anymore yet they still aren't adjusting to that.
  14. Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

    That's exactly the point I was making. Clearing those players out makes Chubb a lock for the 2nd/3rd next year if things continue to go well.
  15. Nick Chubb 2018 Outlook

    I kinda feel like even if he only has one or two more blow-up games and the rest of the season he does what he has been doing (scoring in that 10-15 point range in half-ppr) he will consistently be going in the 2nd/3rd round next season.. Due to recency bias and offseason RB hype in addition to solid on-field performance he could easily supplant Jordan Howard, Devonta Freeman, Derrick Henry (seriously), LeSean McCoy, Alex Collins, etc.. all of which had an ADP of the 2nd or 3rd round according to Yahoo.