rschroeder1

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About rschroeder1

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  1. Justin Watson 2018 Season Outlook

    Yeah, that's fair. On the other hand, Tampa clearly selected Watson for some reason. If they were totally happy with Humphries, seems like somewhat of a waste. He may amount to nothing, I really don't know. I guess to possibly rephrase what I wrote: he's someone I will keep an eye on because his college career and profile strikes me as a possible undervalued asset.
  2. Justin Watson 2018 Season Outlook

    Not all of us play exclusively redraft, so perhaps the snide tone might not be necessary? A couple football writers I respect - Arthur Arkush most notably - have compared Watson to Cooper Kupp. Obviously there's questions about volume, but it's not hard to see Watson possibly becoming Tampa's WR3 in 2019. On paper, Watson fits the mold of receivers who are thriving in the current era of quick, precise routes. On paper is all at the moment though.
  3. Anthony Miller 2018 Season Outlook

    I feel like there are a few misconceptions here. From a Bears fan's perspective: The Bears are going to give White every chance in the world because they have nothing to lose. His fifth year options comes in '19, so if he blossoms in '18, they'll have a very cheap year of an up-and-coming receiver in '19. No risk at all. If he gets hurt, that's it. Bellamy was tendered and Bennie Fowler was signed in free agency as much for their receiving chops as their special teams contributions. It's easy to think only of fantasy, but real-life teams need guys like these. Obviously no one wants to see them starting at receiver, but they can have real-life value. I don't think either is standing in the way of Miller. The Bears entered the draft with very little depth at WR beyond Robinson and Gabriel. Trading up to get Miller is a direct answer to the depth question, both this year and moving forward. Projecting rookie stats is tough, but I am pretty confident he's going to see meaningful playing time in '18.
  4. Devonta Freeman 2018 Season Outlook

    I've owned Freeman in a keeper league for his entire career now, and I've settled on him as a dependable RB2 who might end up as a RB1 in any given year. The rushing numbers are pretty consistent, but the passing game is a bit tough to figure out. - In 2015, Freeman had 97 targets, but the Falcons threw the ball 621 times. Clearly this was unlikely to sustain long-term. His targets per game were 4.06 on 537 total pass attempts in '16 and 3.36 on 530 total pass attempts in '17. Is the drop from '16 to '17 due to a new offensive coordinator? A less efficient offense overall? Is a change of .7 pass attempts per game just randomness? I'm not sure. The funny thing is, in Week 12 when Coleman was out with injury, Freeman had 7 targets/68 yards, and in Week 17 with a healthy Coleman and the season on the line, he was targeted 11 times. It's also worth noting that Coleman's targets per game declined from 3.07 to 2.6 from '16 to '17, and that includes three games in '17 when Coleman was the feature back. Are the Falcons simply not featuring the RB in the passing game as much? That may be the case with Sarkisian still in place as the OC in '18. It seems like a rather odd path strategically to me, at least. - As far as rushing goes, you know what you are going to get. Freeman averaged 4.8 YPC in '16 and 4.4 in '17, compared to Coleman's 4.4 and 4.0. Carries per game averaged 14.2 - 14 for Freeman and 9 - 8 for Coleman. Clearly both backs suffered from the Falcons' less-efficient offense in '17. - So my overall conclusion is: if you believe the Falcons offense will bounce back this year, Freeman seems like a good buy if perceptions on him are lower. It seems his rushing output is somewhat linked to the Falcons' overall offensive success. Given the cyclical and up-and-down nature of the NFL, the Falcons getting an upward boost offensively would not be surprising. Given the criticisms that Sarkisian faced in '17, it seems possible that both RBs are more incorporated in the passing game moving forward, but that's just conjecture. There's no hard evidence to back it up, beyond regression to the mean, but even in that regard, the sample size is pretty small (two years).
  5. Cooper Kupp 2018 Outlook

    The stats don't bear this out. Kupp led the NFL in targets between the 20-10 and tied for 21st in targets inside the ten with eight targets. For context, AJ Green had eight, and A Brown, Hopkins, Dez, Michael Thomas had ten. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm
  6. Cooper Kupp 2018 Outlook

    The drops stat needs context. The cohort of NFL receivers with 5 or more drops and a lower catch % than Kupp (his was 66%) includes Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Paul Richardson, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen. Now in fairness, a number of those players had more targets, so basically, of their incompletions, fewer were drops. Not to be sarcastic, but as we're playing fantasy, the aesthetics of Kupp's incompletions probably aren't as important as the total number of incompletions he has? Combined with the sample size of one year, being a rookie year, and his college track record, I don't see why we should assume the 5 drops are a trend until it becomes a trend.
  7. Chicago Bears 2018 Offseason

    Re: Burton, I feel like on the fantasy side of things it's pretty well accepted that tight ends have a steep learning curve. If Shaheen is legit, he should be coming into his own as Burton is in the final year of his contract, or thereabouts.
  8. Chicago Bears 2018 Offseason

    Both Meredith and Bellamy are restricted free agents. The contract value offered via a qualifying offer is stipulated by NFL rules, not by the Bears. There's really no benefit to Meredith or Bellamy to accept the qualifying offers; if they reject them, they become RFAs and can test the market. If the Bears choose not to match another team's contract offer, the Bears get draft picks as compensation. Or, the Bears can match whatever contract offer they get. Not sure why this is problematic. If they let Bellamy and Meredith go, how many receivers will they need to sign? 4 or 5? Would incoming UFA or RFA receivers be cheaper than 2 million per year?
  9. JuJu Smith-Schuster 2018 Season Outlook

    Bryant had 84 targets last year to Juju's 79, so there's definitely potential for target growth at some point for Juju. I'm not as doom and gloom as others about the shares of Brown and Bell impacting Juju, based on his target share in the second half of the season last year. In the first seven games, Bryant averaged 5.14 targets/game, and Juju averaged 3.71. Juju's average does include a zero target game in his first career game. The total rises to 4.33 if you toss out the first game. Juju had 10 targets in Week 9, the week Bryant was suspended. They then played six games together the remainder of the season (Juju missed two games for suspension and injury). Juju averaged 7.16 targets/game, and Bryant averaged 6 in the six games they played together. For the record, Bryant had 6 targets in each of the two games Juju missed. A target jump of nearly three per game over the course of the season tells me that Juju's place in the offense is real. He managed this even with a slight uptick for Bryant. Extrapolating 7.16 targets/game from a six game sample to 16 puts Juju at 114 targets. For the 2017 season, he would rank 17th among wideouts and 19th overall for total targets. Solidly confident of WR2 expectations for him.
  10. JuJu Smith-Schuster 2018 Season Outlook

    For '18, I expect Juju to show improvement as a real-life player, but I expect his fantasy production will stay solidly in the WR2 area where he finished in '17. He's certainly going to have those 4-40 type games, but he's also shown that even with AB on the field he can put up WR1 weeks. So I think it's completely reasonable to expect a WR2 finish with some WR1 weeks that will win you some games. As others have said, he'll probably be overdrafted based on hype. On the other hand, there's such week-to-week volatility with presumed WR1s like AJ Green and Julio Jones (not that I'm putting Juju in their company!) that I think most owners are going to be happy with Juju wherever they get him. From a dynasty/keeper perspective (where I have Juju), I am curious how an aging Ben impacts Juju. My generalized impression of aging QBs is that mobility and arm strength are usually the first things to diminish. Not saying it's happening in '18 for Ben, but I wonder whether AB would be more affected by an aging Ben than Juju, given the number of catches AB makes with Ben dancing and buying time in the pocket. It's really just a guess, at this point.
  11. Chicago Bears 2018 Offseason

    Way too much recency bias here. We've seen plenty of quarterbacks muck through their first year and blossom in their second and third years. Likewise, we've seen plenty of flash-in-the-pan QBs who light up the world for a string of games and disappear. I've always thought the offseason is a great equalizer. Give teams 8 months to study the tape on Watson, Jimmy G, etc., and let's see how defenses adjust, and how those players and their offenses adjust back. I don't mean to say that Watson or Jimmy won't be good or great. The sample is just too small. As far as Trubisky is concerned, a rookie year on a team with no receivers, with a coaching staff that literally only allowed him to throw the ball 7 times in one game, I consider the sample to be a wash. Here we are talking about all the interesting ways that Nagy can use Cohen and Shaheen, two players whom the coaching staff basically refused to play for large swaths of the season. Another reason why Trubisky's sample size is a wash, in my opinion.
  12. Cooper Kupp 2017 Season Outlook

    Not to start a 2018 thread already...but I'm curious what people are thinking about Kupp at this point. Certainly, his numbers fall into that category of rookie numbers of players who go on to have successful careers. I'm not sure if I see him as kind of in that permanent WR2/WR3 group or if he can take the leap to the solid WR2 category with some WR1 weeks mixed in. Just curious what others might be thinking in this regard. I don't doubt the talent, but it seems that with Woods and Gurley there for the near term, there's going to be competition for targets. If Watkins leaves, perhaps that's a benefit if Woods gets the #1 cornerback? But I imagine the Rams would try to keep Watkins there given the role he has had with taking the top off the defense.
  13. Cooper Kupp 2017 Season Outlook

    I think these are fair criticisms, but both these guys are so young. As a Bears fan watching John Fox mangle Mitchell Trubisky, I think it's fair to consider this year as Goff's true rookie year. Likewise, with Kupp as a rookie, I don't think it's necessarily a negative if his involvement in the offense is by design. He's on pace for 104 targets as a rookie - that number is too high for me to consider it all as being kind of forced in his general direction. Even if it is more forced than not, we see time and again that some rookies can't even handle that - Kupp's involvement in the game plan from day one remains a positive for me. Football outsiders ranks him in the top 17 for all receivers by their Defense Yards Above Replacement stats. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr
  14. Which TE to start?

    Vernon Davis vs. Dallas Hunter Henry vs. Cleveland Appreciate your help.
  15. Cooper Kupp 2017 Season Outlook

    Yeah, one drop and the fumble. I don't mean to sound like a Cooper fanboy, but I think that Kupp is being a bit unfairly penalized because two of his three drops on the year have been high-profile - the end zone drop on the second-to-last play against Seattle on what would have been a spectacular catch, and the crucial third-down drop this weekend against Minn. For context, Odell Beckham has four drops this year on 41 targets (fewer targets than Kupp). Alshon has two, Julio has three, DeAndre has three (although all on more targets than Kupp. The Football Outsiders stats I posted earlier were eye-opening for me. For a rookie to rate in the top 25 in efficiency and above replacement, he's doing something right.