Weekday Warrior

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  1. Baseball America 2018 Top 100

    So I guess it was hyperbole when SI dubbed Hunter Greene the Lebron James of baseball?
  2. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    I don’t know what all the fuss is about, free agency is a marketplace, marketplaces are cyclical, buyers adjust. Let’s see how the money flows next season before we assume the sky is falling. Conceptually paying players more during younger years sound great but there will always be a market pressure for teams to be cost efficient and avoid long term deals. How many players young or old even put together a sustained stretch of 6-8 years of excellence anyway? Most need to use the majority of their 20s to establish their max value, and plenty fizzle out altogether. Major league baseball has a steep learning curve.
  3. Gregory Polanco 2018 Outlook

    I think I am starting to look at Polanco the same way I was looking at Puig heading into last season, and I similarly am willing to take a shot at the power/speed upside if the price is low enough...
  4. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    So re: that mystery player who said he might sit out half the season until a motivated contender ponies up for what he feels he is really worth.... I am struggling to see the logic there. Is mid-season motivated buyer team going to pay for the half a missed season? If not, that’s 10-12 million down the toilet. Isn’t mystery player worried about new short-term rental trade opportunities looking more palatable to the team who is playing for a 2018 championship? If mystery player is victim to having only 1 serious suitor right now who doesn’t want to bid against itself, isn’t that same dynamic going to exist mid-season? In fact, won’t mid-season buyer have even more leverage than now when there are still multiple buyers out there, albeit cost conscious ones, that mystery player can always fall back on if the big fish slips off the hook? Is mystery player seriously willing to risk losing an entire year of salary??
  5. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Pretty spot on analysis in Baseball Prospectus today about why it is reasonable to be frustrated by the Cole trade, excerpt cut and pasted below (cliffnotes in case cutting and pasting from 3rd party subscription based content needs to be removed: the Pirates were not in a position where they *needed* to trade, but by painting themselves into a corner with a must-sell approach their "quantity over quality" yield is not a surprising outcome, and they probably could have done better by waiting until mid-season when demand rises on account of teams identifying themselves as contenders who need extra pitching): "...it failed to bring a player back to Pittsburgh with the upside of a Cole unless one of these players hits an unlikely 90th percentile projection. The Pirates aren’t so far out of contention that they must blow up a failing roster, and their farm system isn’t so bad that they need to abandon ship. No, this feels like a trade that the team made because they felt like they needed to cut loose from Cole and get something back. Look, if you have to make a trade, then you have to be prepared to “lose” that trade. The best trades that teams make are the ones where they identify a need and pull high value out of a team to address that space. With pitchers like Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta still on the open market, it’s harder to find a team that needs Cole. (To wit, the Astros, while happy to have Cole, certainly don’t need him. They just won the World Series without him, and only lost Mike Fiers from their rotation mix.) It seems like the Pirates could have been better served by holding onto Cole until midseason and seeing if injury or ineffectiveness created a larger return from another club. Instead, it feels like this was a deal born from pressure, and ended up with a return of quantity over quality."
  6. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Watching such a well-conceived Pirates team dismantle for other teams’ spare parts is almost as depressing as it was to watch their early 90s roster crumble. I guess teams are stingy with their primo prospects. White Sox fans should feel lucky that the marketplace didn’t stubbornly dig in against them too.
  7. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    Tough crowd...I think there is some unfair cherry-picking in some of these rebuttals and too much trying to be too cute (fantasy and real life are different, really? Wow!)... the bust potential of the guys the Pirates picked up is also being short shrifted as is the shrewdness of the Astros front office (can’t help but be reminded of the Ken Giles trade and how so many people thought the Phillies got such an impressive haul at the time) Noone has a crystal ball I guess but I personally like to err on the side of the proven stud rather than stockpiling young guys (not even going to get into why Cole was a lot better than his year end #s reclect). One possible factor that hasn’t been mentioned is Cole may have been turning into a diva and alienating others in the organization, hadn’t read anything like that since he complained about his pre-arbitration salary, but it seems plausible
  8. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    It just looks like one of those bad fantasy trade offers of multiple guys who are barely better than waiver wire fodder for 1 stud. If the Pirates really truly saw something in one or more of those guys, one has to believe they could have put together a more modest trade package that didn’t involve Cole. Even if they couldn’t get those guys specifically without giving up Cole, is it really that hard to cobble together a comparable set of acquisitions via low level trading and free agent bargain hunting?
  9. 2017-2018 Off-season and Hot Stove Thread

    I seem to be the only one who is offended that the Stros got 2 years of cost controlled Cole for NOTHING. Cole is a big, inning eating, hard throwing, workhorse who has flashed all star (and fringe Cy Young) upside and is still well in his prime. Huge steal, especially when we see what teams wind up paying to land Darvish and Arrieta. I’ve seen teams pay more trade value for a shorter term rental of a worse pitcher. If that is the best the market had to offer I don’t know why the Pirates didn’t just commit to going all in to win. They still have their core from a very succesful 2015 campaign plus new young talent and minor league assets to trade. I guess this means McCutch will be traded soon otherwise what was the point...
  10. 2018 Draft Day MUST HAVES and BARGAINS

    Tommy Pham for me, he’s always going to go at least at some discount to his 2017 performance, and I am enough of a believer to discount it less than everyone else in my leagues....
  11. J.D. Martinez 2018 Outlook

    He really doesn’t have that much leverage, does he? There are only a finite # of teams willing to give him even 75 cents on the dollar of his ask. With him coming off by far his best statistical year and a bumper crop of high end free agent competition next year, he can’t even pretend he’ll sign a one year deal if his demand isn’t met. I doubt Boras will let the highest and best possible offer slip away, but I am rooting for this being the year that the signing team wises up to bidding against itself
  12. Yasiel Puig 2018 Outlook

    The mega high ceiling we all envisioned when he burst onto the scene in ‘13 and ‘14 is gone but I think he’s settled into a very nice OF3 with solid production across the board upside that is offset a bit by a risk of missing games or landing in the manager’s dog house
  13. Miguel Sano 2018 Outlook

    Another reason I am rating risk of significant playing time loss as low is that the procedure being used is the product of the CBA. I have to believe the player’s association wants to see the league use some evidentiary standard beyond choosing to believe one person and disbelieve another. And there was physical and 3rd party evidence in every other case where a suspension came down, all of which involved unambiguously criminal acts of violence reported at time of incident. If the league applies a new standard, it risks political tension with the player’s union and possible reversal by an arbitration panel that could very well hold it to past precedent. This opinion changes if more accusers come forward showing a possible pattern of behavior by Sano. Otherwise, this looks exactly like the Addy Russell case. He was acused on social media of a past incident, he denied it, no police involvement or hospital visits, league conducted investigation that lead to nothing.
  14. Manny Machado 2018 Outlook

    Got a little too home run happy with his swing last season but still the same player. Don’t think it would shock anyone if he had a year where everything is clicking and he put up a top 5 offensive player season. Displayed remarkable durability the last 3 years too. I would be thrilled to use a 2nd rounder on him. Read that he is asking to be moved back to SS too.
  15. Miguel Sano 2018 Outlook

    Whoops I made a mistake, the Norris suspension was only a month, which makes sense as there was no arrest or police report or (as was the case in Jose Reyes’ 51 game suspension) ER visit. So there does seem to be a pattern of precedent based on the weight of the evidence.