Weekday Warrior

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  1. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I don’t think there is any question Harper and Machado can get 10/300 and we already know Harper turned down just that, they are obviously swinging much higher than that. Even if a technical argument is made that Harper/Machado are asking for a fair return on their WAR, I don’t think anyone can really fault teams for drawing a line in the sand and feeling confident they could spend the same money in smaller increments over the same 10 year period on other less-sexy-but-effective free agents (kinda like the McCutch and Brantley deals) and get the same or better WAR return for their money but with a more diversified portfolio to mitigate risk.
  2. 2019 Offseason Closer Thread

    All the projections I’ve seen have Giles’ ERA in the 3s and I think he can be drafted as such. He had some stretches where he gave up a lot of hits in the years where he struggled, but his overall track record doesn’t suggest he is inherently hittable and there aren’t really any other red flags other than his tempermant. Given how volatile the closer position can be, the firmness of his hold on the job now that he got a change of scenery is worth something.
  3. 2019 Sleepers

    Matt Strahm is another guy I am interested in. Unclear what role he’ll have but he should have value either way and draft day cost shouldn’t be higher than his floor as a middle reliever with good stats, and those guys are always useful anyway
  4. 2019 Sleepers

    There seem to be a lot more young post-hype sleeper candidates out there this year than in prior years, for which varying degrees of cases could be made for a breakout, for those looking to score the next Profar. I’m not personally bullish on all these guys, but some exames include: Margot, Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Mazara, Arcia, Swanson, Kingery, McMahon, O’Neill, Pederson, Weaver, Glasnow, Castillo and Rodon. (Plus Winker and Renfroe who I already mentioned as guys I like). All of these guys should be fairly cheap; dirt cheap in many cases.
  5. 2019 Sleepers

    Jesse Winker if he looks healthy in the spring, that combo of high BA, high BBs, and low Ks is extraordinarily rare, if it all comes together he could have a breakout similar to Brantley’s 2014 but without the steals. Hunter Renfroe. Kinda risky if you play in OBP leagues but he’s slowly but surely getting better at taking walks, and that big second half hints at the 40 HR season to come. The pieces are there to put together something close to vintage Chris Davis.
  6. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    If someone was going to step up and blow away the competition with a blockbuster offer to Harper and Maxhado it would have happened already, and the teams that are interested in them are obviously comfortable letting someone else swoop in and do just that or else they would have done it first. This looks more similar to the JD Martinez staring contest from last year where he came in with a really aggresive ask that needed to come back down to earth a little before a deal got done, just on a bigger scale here...
  7. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    At this point can we assume that the Machado/Harper suitors are drawing their lines in the sand, not getting sucked into a bidding war, and basically saying they are comfortable tipping their cap to whoever wants to outbid them? I mean, who is going to criticize the GM who errs on the side of salary flexibility? I’m sure the offer from the Nats that Harper turned down and Stanton’s deal sets the approximate negotiating floor, but I’m guessing the movement beyond that is underwhelming...
  8. Shohei Ohtani 2019 Outlook

    I love the power/speed combo but am worried about benchings vs LHPs and to build up his health for pitching usage cutting into ABs. If I knew they were committing to him as a hitter only I’d be less concerned about LHP since I think he could be one of those hitters who is special enough that they let him play through it and the overall season stats would still net out to being pretty awesome.
  9. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Brantley signing is a coup for the ‘stros. Guys do get healthy, and the underlying skills are still there for Dr. Smooth. The price they are paying looks like it factors in injury risk too, so if he stays healthy it is pure gravey. The bottom 3rd of their lineup was a noticeable weakness in the playoffs so adding a proven veteran bat was a wise move. This is back to back offseasons now where the Stros added impact talent at minimal cost to what was already a championship caliber core. (Actually 3 if you count the Ken Giles trade....)
  10. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Something similar to McCutch’s contract plus incentives for plate appearances seems fair for Brantley and Pollock
  11. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I guess this version of Mccutch is sorta similar to what Carlos Santana gave the Phillies on offense (high OBP, modest HR power) they just swapped 2 years at $40 million for 3 years/$45 million but got better positional synergy by opening up 1st for Hoskins.
  12. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    I would argue that Stanton is a fair proxy for Harper in terms of what the player brings to the table (and Stanton even has the slightly higher WAR whether you start counting from ‘12 or ‘13). So Stanton’s contract adjusted for inflation seems like the best case scenario argument that Harper’s camp can make, but it also seems vulnerable to pushback that with hindsight the Stanton contract was viewed as an overpay as reflected in the tepid trade market just to unload it (at today’s dollar values and following a career season, no less) At the end of the day a willing buyer and a willing seller can agree to whatever they want though, these are just abstract negotiating points. Obviously Harper/Machado’s camp can argue that their age and generational talent puts them in a category that makes last season’s depressed valuations for guys like JD Martinez inapplicable, but if I’m negotating on the other side I’m arguing that the market landscape is making adjustments resulting from bad mega contracts handed out in the past to star players.
  13. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    There’s only been one $300 million contract ever, right? Giancarlo Stanton, and it didn’t long for it to be seen as pretty close to a give-away in terms of trade value even after he had a 59 HR season! So, in this new age of contract conservatism, why should Harper or Machado realistically expect a record setting contract? $300 million really should be the absolute drop dead limit...
  14. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    MIA probably wants to save face and redeem itself for last offseason, where they first demanded Acuna plus more for Yelich and then ultimately took a bunch of flashy looking names who are all trending downward now
  15. David Dahl 2019 Outlook

    He was pretty highly regarded heading into 2017 fantasy drafts (before his preseason injury, that is) so I don’t think his strong 2018 finish is flying under anyone’s radar. The power/speed/Coors profile will earn him a lot of love; the injury history is the only source of discount.