Axe Elf

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Everything posted by Axe Elf

  1. I've only started looking at football again recently, as it's been a busy offseason thus far with four funerals, two weddings, four graduations, and about ten birthdays sprinkled in for good measure. So I'm still getting up to speed with all the offseason player/coach movement and such, but to my eye, there are tons of value picks out there to be had this early in the summer. Of course I prefer auction drafts, but I hopped into a 10-team Yahoo snake mock draft last night just to get my feet wet. Even though my draft strategy is not yet set in stone as Axe Elf gospel, I'll still throw this inaugural team out there for discussion and education purposes. I guess Yahoo is going to a PPR scoring format with 2RB/2WR/1Flex lineups instead of their traditional standard scoring 2RB/3WR leagues, so I drafted under those assumptions. There were no computer drafters. QB: Deshaun Watson (10) 5.4, Matt Ryan (8) 14.7 Pretty much game over right there; whoever gets Deshaun Watson this year wins. The guy averaged 31.3 fantasy ppg in October last year (before he got hurt), while the league's top QB, Russell Wilson, averaged 21.7 fantasy ppg on the season. I know last year I was saying that "QB is the new D" and it didn't matter what QB you get--and that's still largely true, but there is no other player in the league who averages 10 more points per game than his nearest competitor. And even if Watson gets hurt again, Matt Ryan is a starter-quality backup. So get Watson if you can, and if you can't, you might as well wait until late like last year. Grade: A+ RB: Ezekiel Elliott (8) 1.4, Joe Mixon (9) 4.7, Ronald Jones II (5) 9.4, Nick Chubb (11) 12.7 Since Dallas lost Jason Witten and cut Dez Bryant, I have Zeke as the #1 RB this season. He was #3 to Gurley and Bell on a ppg basis last season, and I can't imagine that Dallas will have much else to offer on offense this season other than 30 Zeke touches per game (he averaged 26.8 touches per game in 10 games last year, including his pathetic 9-carry game in Week 2), so I was happy to get him at #4 overall. He seems durable enough to carry that kind of a load for at least one season. The rest of my RBs are a little more speculative, but if Mixon can absorb Jeremy Hill's production he's good for at least 1100 yards. Jones should be the lead RB in Tampa Bay, and Chubb should be the rushing TD vulture for the Browns, if not more. All my RBs would be more suited to a standard scoring league than a PPR league, but at least there are no bye week problems. Grade: B- WR: Davante Adams (7) 2.7, Mike Evans (5) 3.4, Marvin Jones, Jr. (6) 7.4, Julian Edelman (11) 8.7, Will Fuller V (10) 10.7, Corey Davis (8) 11.4 There was so much value at WR in the middle to late rounds that I just couldn't stop picking them, even though I'm only required to start two. With the PPR scoring, I'm ok with having my greatest depth at the WR position. My only problem would largely be one of which studs to bench in any given week, and that's not a bad problem to have. Davante Adams has been a top 10 WR the last two years running--and that's been with Jordy Nelson, and both with and without Aaron Rodgers. He's about as safe of a bet as any to remain near the very top of a very volatile position--and again I felt lucky to snag him in the late second round. Mike Evans isn't a huge target of mine in general, but he's been a top 20ish PPR WR every one of his four years as a pro and was #17 even in an "off" year last year, so he should be a solid WR2 with any kind of a bounceback year. I don't know how another couple of top 15 PPR WRs fell to the 7th and 8th rounds, but I was very happy to snap them up too. Pro Football Focus has Marvin Jones rated as the #2 "go" route receiver in the league (just behind Tyreek Hill), but I guess people have simply forgotten about Edelman's PPR connection with Brady after his injury absence. Will Fuller shared that magical October with Deshaun Watson last year, averaging over 100 yards and 1.75 TDs in those four games. This year, they can double dip again for my team. Corey Davis figures to be the leading receiver and red zone target (among the WRs, anyway) for Tennessee, and it's always nice to have an NFL team's WR1 as your WR6 (and zero bye week conflicts). Grade: A TE: Hunter Henry (8) 6.7, Benjamin Watson (6) 15.4 Henry was already the #8 TE on a ppg basis last year--and that was with Antonio Gates still vulturing some 80 fantasy points of his own. If Henry absorbs Gates' production, he becomes the #3 TE of 2017, behind only Gronk and Kelce. Watson had a successful year in 2015 as the Saints' top TE after Jimmy Graham left for Seattle; in fact, he was the #7 PPR TE that season. I'm curious to see how much Brees missed him after two years of Fleener. Grade: A- K: TBD I wouldn't draft a K in a real draft until August, so I won't do it in a mock draft, either. Grade: N/A DST: Baltimore Ravens (10) 13.4 I wasn't really planning to draft a D either, but by the time the 13th pick rolled around, I was already loaded at QB and WR, there weren't any worthy RBs left on the board, and a top 10 Defense from the last two years (2nd overall to JAX last year) was staring me in the face, so I clicked on them. Grade: A Overall, I would say it's a promising team that might have needed some luck at RB (or some trade/waiver work) to be a Championship contender, but with good health it should have at least been a playoff team. Overall Grade: A-
  2. 2018 Dream Draft

    You can quit ƒucking with my posts any time now.
  3. 2018 Dream Draft

    Well when the dude is peacocking around behind lies, he's gonna get his face rubbed in the truth. I just showed the sequence of posts which proved that he was lying. I guess if anyone wants to see for themselves, they can see Ponza's "Rate It! First PPR Draft of the Season" thread in the Assistant Coach forum.
  4. I dunno... Do you think Dante Pettis will be available?
  5. Dynasty Draft Strategy WHIR

    Get the best, youngest players you can.
  6. Ugh. Can't seem to fix the formatting on that post. You have to click the arrows to see all the quotes. I guess I forgot an "end quote" somewhere and they all got nested. Oh well...
  7. With this Yahoo team being so clearly dominant, it is receiving a lot of trade offers. Unfortunately, they range from the mildly detrimental to the fully delusional. I got this one a couple of days ago: I give my T.Y. Hilton and Larry Fitzgerald for his Tyreek Hill, Marqise Lee and Dante Pettis Now, granted, this league has both a Flex and a Superflex position in addition to 2 RBs and 3 WRs--but it's only a 12 team league, so even with 18 man rosters, it's not all THAT deep (216 total players rostered), nor is it a dynasty league, so I really don't see any reason for Dante Pettis to even be on a roster, let alone part of a trade for the #4 PPR WR. So I wrote this message to the league: Lotta easy money on Yahoo this year, it appears... P.S. If you, like me, are a fantasy owner who only concerns himself with fantasy-relevant players, this is the 2018 Fantasy Outlook for Dante Pettis from CBS Sports:
  8. 2018 Dream Draft

    I don't usually do snake drafts, but I only had a short time to draft tonight, so I relented. I think maybe I nailed the Dream Draft in the process. 10 Team PPR Best-Ball League. I was sitting there with the #2 overall pick, all ready to take Zeke, and then the #1 pick didn't show up and autodrafted David Johnson. Merry Christmas to me! QB: Andrew Luck (9) 11.2, Derek Carr (7) 13.2, Ryan Tannehill (11) 20.9 RB: Todd Gurley (12) 1.2, Jay Ajayi (9) 4.9, Marshawn Lynch (7) 8.9, Marlon Mack (9) 9.2, Ty Montgomery (7) 14.9 WR: Mike Evans (5) 2.9, Larry Fitzgerald (9) 3.2, T.Y. Hilton (9) 5.2, Pierre Garcon (11) 6.9, Jordy Nelson (7) 10.9, Martavis Bryant (7) 15.2 TE: Greg Olsen (4) 7.2, Benjamin Watson (6) 17.2 K: Detroit Lions (6) 18.9, San Francisco 49ers (11) 19.2 DST: Jacksonville Jaguars (9) 12.9, Baltimore Ravens (10) 16.9 It's probably a better team than could be assembled in an auction draft.
  9. No need to handcuff my RB4; if Mack gets hurt, I'll just do without. And I'm not sure what other WR you would take in place of the NFL receiving yardage champion (the last time Luck played, anyway). Hilton is gold in best ball leagues; you get all the points from his 177/2 games without having to eat all the 30/0 games.
  10. Turns out Axe Elf is good at snake drafts too; din't have time for a full auction tonight, but was feeling a bit Draft Masterish... so best ball snake it is! Lucked into the #2 pick; I was all set to take Zeke, but then the #1 pick din't show up, timed out, and autodrafted David Johnson. Merry Christmas to me! QB: Andrew Luck (9) 11.2, Derek Carr (7) 13.2, Ryan Tannehill (11) 20.9 RB: Todd Gurley (12) 1.2, Jay Ajayi (9) 4.9, Marshawn Lynch (7) 8.9, Marlon Mack (9) 9.2, Ty Montgomery (7) 14.9 WR: Mike Evans (5) 2.9, Larry Fitzgerald (9) 3.2, T.Y. Hilton (9) 5.2, Pierre Garcon (11) 6.9, Jordy Nelson (7) 10.9, Martavis Bryant (7) 15.2 TE: Greg Olsen (4) 7.2, Benjamin Watson (6) 17.2 K: Detroit Lions (6) 18.9, San Francisco 49ers (11) 19.2 DST: Jacksonville Jaguars (9) 12.9, Baltimore Ravens (10) 16.9 I think I cornered the market on "TY"s... And I get the double dip for every TD to Hilton, Nelson or Bryant (assuming Luck and Carr stay healthy). This is probly a better team than could even be assembled in an auction.
  11. lol I guess you expect more than 4 top tennish RBs from an Axe Elf team, but sheesh... that's a pretty high bar!
  12. 2018 Biggest Busts

    Except for Watkins having 3 times as many TDs.
  13. Most improved defenses 2018

    That's probly why you listened for once.
  14. 2018 Biggest Busts

    BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! What are you, Tyrod's cousin or something? Spin it all you like, Benjamin was a strong WR2 in Carolina and waiver wire fodder in Buffalo. Based on his numbers through 6 games, Benjamin would have posted 43 receptions for 579 yards and 3 TDs through a full 16 games.
  15. Most improved defenses 2018

    See? Good things happen when you listen to Axe Elf. San Francisco will be the surprise this season. Not as elite as the Jags, but start-worthy in most leagues.
  16. Most improved defenses 2018

    See? Good things happen when you listen to Axe Elf. San Francisco will be the surprise this season. Not as elite as the Jags, but start-worthy in most leagues.
  17. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    Half of the truth is all of a lie. People like to crow about "Black '16" when 40% of the players drafted in Axe Elf's 50 Draft Masters teams on RT Sports went down for the year, and of course in a Draft Masters league, there's nothing one can do about it but move on to next year. 1 of his 4 managed teams on RT Sports that year finished tied for the best W-L record in the league, with more total points than the team he was tied with, but thanks to their wack seeding criteria, that team didn't make the playoffs. And that's why Axe Elf doesn't play managed leagues on RT Sports any more. The vast majority of Axe Elf's managed leagues from the late 90s to the current day have taken place on Yahoo and ESPN, but it's more fun to laugh at Axe Elf for one year's worth of Draft Masters disasters on a single site and ignore his record in managed leagues on other platforms for the past 20 years.
  18. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    Dude, if I'm making a point about the reliability of Axe Elf's predictions in the past, then past predictions that worked out are the best evidence. Now go sober up, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.
  19. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    You and RMJ both work for the Department of Irrelevancy?
  20. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    Poker is a more reliable source of income. If fantasy football became work, it wouldn't be fun any more; I'd rather keep it at the hobby level.
  21. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    Those were Axe Elf calls in 2016. Crowell finished as the RB15 and Cousins was the QB5.
  22. 2018 Biggest Busts

    There's another WR who fell victim to Tyrod Taylor the Toadmaker. Benjamin was a 70-catch, 1000-yard, 8-TD WR for two full seasons in Carolina; when he came to Buffalo, he caught 16 balls for 217 yards and 1 TD in six games.
  23. Tarik Cohen 2018 Season Outlook

    Axe Elf has higher standards than you. That's a big reason for Axe Elf's success right there--nobody believes him when he says Kirk Cousins will be a top 5 QB or Isaiah Crowell will be a top 20 RB or any of the other kerjillion longshots Axe Elf called the summer before they took place. Maybe if more people made the sensible choice to target Axe Elf's touts, he wouldn't find it so easy to skate to multiple Championships year after year.
  24. 2018 Biggest Busts

    If I have to walk you through it, the point is that Taylor is a backup-caliber passer--that's why the Bills ran so much.
  25. 2018 Biggest Busts

    Now ask yourself, do teams employ a run-first, throw-less offense when they have a HOF-caliber QB, or when they are trying to hide one who has back-up caliber passing skills? What DO they teach in these schools...?