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  1. NBA March 31 DFS Preview

    March 31 Preview CLE, DET, HOU played yesterday. Boston – Half-game lead over the Cavs in the East. No Special Situations. Home vs. a recently poor ORL defense makes some Celtics look good today. Charlotte – Also no issues and at home vs. a bad DEN defense. Cleveland – Team is slumping which will be remedied in part today home vs. PHI. Irving, JR, LBJ, TT were all 38-39 minutes in the loss @CHI yesterday. They need the win so I would expect them to play but with a 10-point spread their minutes could be limited down the stretch if they indeed pull away. I’m letting the math fall as normal so watch out. Big slate today so you may want to look elsewhere. Dallas – no issues. Denver – DEN is currently at the #9 seed 1.5 games out. Plumlee and Barton are playing so basically the whole roster is healthy which makes for tough guessing on who has the good games. Detroit – Personally I’ve been riding Ish every game since RJax has been out and it has done me well. Another 38DFS/$141 CPP yesterday and no price change today at $5300 on FD. DK has him more appropriately at $6100. His 3 games as the main PG have scored 31,30,38 FD points in 35,31,31 minutes and we mentioned yesterday that he averages mid 30s in games he gets 30+ minutes. DET is 2.5 games out of the playoffs with CHI still to leapfrog as well. Golden State – no issues at home vs. HOU. 3.5 games ahead of SAS. Houston – Harrell should be back while Ryan Anderson remains out. He’s missed 4 here in March. We mentioned last game Ariza has been the biggest gainer and he did it again with 36 FD points in 36 minutes. He’s probably benefitting as well with Harden banged up a bit. He’s averaging 34 vs. his normal 27 in those 4 games with a range of 20-46. Lou! has a nice spread averaging 27 vs. 22 in +4 minutes and a DFS range of 22-40 in those games and we like to see the minimum of the range there at or above the L28. Houston is sitting solidly at the #3 seed with nowhere really to go. Still, Harden is no less than 36 minutes over his past 7 games. Indiana – Big Al, GR3, Stuckey all remain out without too much impact to others. Memphis – Gasol will be out again. They are sitting at the 7-seed and probably will stay there being a few games ahead and behind. Gasol has missed 6 on the season. Wright played in 4 of those averaging +6 minutes but only a 15 DFS average and range of 8-23. ZBo is 26 vs. 24 with a range of 2-39. Obviously, he looks better if you throw out that 2-point game. In the past 3 games, ZBo is averaging 32 with a 28-39 range. J.Green is out as well again meaning the starting frontcourt of Ennis and Wright could be value plays and expect to score at least low to mid 20s. Same holds true with Tony Allen and Vince Carter. Lots of potential value in MEM today. Ennis is 18 vs. 10 over 5 games without Gasol and 17 in the past 3. Conley has scored 35-56 in the past 3. Miami – McGruder only had 5 in 12 the last game. Projections updated for the last 6 with no Waiters. No big upgrades and wide ranges on everyone. Watch your Risk Factors and 70% Confidence Ranges in my spreadsheet. Josh Richardson has scored 21-30 DK points in that span in an average of 34 minutes. He’s sitting with a good 2.9 Risk Factor and good CPP for todayon FD @ $4700 and not so good @$5300 on DK. Milwaukee – Brogdon will miss. Delly will start but has only scored 10,19 in 2 games Brogdon has missed. No one else upgrades very well for DFS as Jason Terry and Tony Snell have gotten extra minutes in those as well. New Orleans – Cousins played last game with 61 DK points. He gets his first game vs. SAC today! I think I’ll be playing him! He’s got a relatively affordable cost under $10k in both formats. New York – Rose is questionable. Randle and Baker are not good DFS options. Melo is also questionable. We’ve gone over this several times. Porzingis averages well less with Melo out. C.Lee is the safest upgrade as he has averaged 25 vs. 21 with a range of 20-29 in 38 minutes in the 4 games Melo has missed. He’s also benefitting from L.Thomas continuing to be out. We could use some news on these guys. If you want to shy away from Boogie, Hernangomez is getting good minutes and upgrading with other scorers out as well. In fact he has averaged 30 in games Melo and LT are out and is averaging 28 minutes in the L7 vs. his norm of about 21. Kuzminskas could be a great option – but only if we are certain he will get big minutes. He’s gotten anywhere from 4-35 minutes in the past handful of games. Gutsy option if both Rose and Melo are out. OKC – no issues. Orlando – no issues. Philly – TJ McConnell is another relative value guy today. With Sergio out the past 2 games he has scored 32,30 DK points in 34,37 minutes. His cost only went up $100 from $5500 to $5600 on FD while jumping from $5500 to $6200 on DK. Covington will be out today and tomorrow as well. He’s missed 2 games since the All-Star break. Justin Anderson hasn’t done much scored 12,16 in those. He may be a good play today but it hasn’t happened via the math yet. A possible value play would be Luwawu-Cabarrot who played 27,32 minutes in those and scored 25 FD points both times. He’s also gotten 32,32 minutes in the last 2 games. On the other hand, he’s gotten 17 in 33 minutes earlier in the month as well. He’s risky but you would think PHI would want to run the rookies while trying for a better ping pong ball. Another guy is Stauskas at the cheap end who will need to help make up the 50-70 DFS points lost with RoCo, Sergio, and Okafor. San Antonio – no issues. Wary of their #2 spot all but about locked up. Sacramento – no issues. Toronto – Carroll played last game but didn’t do much. Utah – Hill is out. We’ve been through this before. He’s missed almost 30 games on the season with no direct good DFS upgrades. Mack has been in there. Exum starts. Neto played in 17 of those. None of those guys average 20 DFS with Hill out. Mack is closest at 19. Washington – no issues. Projections on my site listed in my profile. Good luck.
  2. NBA March 10 DFS Preview

    My thoughts on today. See my profile for website if you are interested in seeing the stats, lineups, and projections. Thanks. March 10 Preview No teams played yesterday and today. Atlanta – no material news. Tough matchup at home vs. TOR. Brooklyn – B.Lopez will miss today. He’s missed 5 on the season. Hamilton has only averaged 19 FanDuel points in those with a limited 6-25 range. He also has not played in the Nets last 4 games. Scola played in those and averaged 16 but he is no longer on the team which may give Hamilton more hope. Acy played in 2 and scored 14 each time. T.Booker is right on his normal average with a 13-38 range. Kilpatrick is back to rolling. Lin is trending up as well. With R.Lo out as well as Harris, they will need those guys to step up their usage even more. Boston – no material news. Charlotte – C.Zeller played 42 minutes last game vs. MIA with Kaminsky continuing to be out. That was a tough matchup and he only scored 20 FD points. Kaminsky has missed the last 3 and CZ has averaged 26 with a 20-33 average. Marvin Williams is averaging 29.3 with a 16-36 range. Johnny O’Bryant is not an option on FD but he’s soaking up a few minutes and points. Kemba Walker has been 40-47 in the last 3, has 5 in a row at 40+, and has averaged 40 since the break. Keep an eye on news of Batum. He’s currently probable. Chicago – Projections assume team is fully healthy. Keep an eye on Wade. Dallas – math liking Dirk as he’s been playing well and got his 30,000th point last game. They are at home again vs. BKN without B-Lo. Denver – Jokic has missed the last two games and is questionable today. Need news on this one. In the last 2 games, Plumlee has scored 30,36 FD points in 31,31 minutes. He’s sitting at $5600 on FD and $5900 on DK. Wilson Chandler has 33,57 in the last 2. Jamal Murray has the possibility of trending up over Jameer Nelson in the last stretch of the season. His L7 has eclipsed Jameer’s. Both of these guys are risky right now, especially with all the scoring options they have. Golden State – Updated with KD out. The big 3 are no longer getting upgrades. Barnes playing in the teens and McCaw getting bumped but neither of those guys are DFS plays. Houston – Projections give modest bumps to three guys assuming Ryan Anderson is out again. Indiana – no issues. Milwaukee – Middleton still upper 20s and 30s since the break with Parker and Beasley gone. Minnesota – no issues. Orlando – Need news on Vucevic. Biyombo only scored 13 last game but still played 35 minutes. He’s averaged 25 FD points in the past few games without Vooch. Everyone was down last game as Elfrid Payton went off for 66FD/70DK points. Since the break he has 2 games under 20 and 3 games over 40. For the L28, he’s got a very high 5.8 Risk Factor. Sacramento – Koufos and WCS are both averaging about the same 23FD points since the break with Cousins gone. Tyreke was in the 20s for 5 games and went up into the 30s last game. Garrett Temple has been back for 2 games and scored 22,24 making him look very attractive at $4300 on FD and even better at $3800 on DK if you think he stays around those numbers. Toronto – Lowry has missed the last 7. Ibaka is on his L28 average of 29 with a 21-38 range in those games. CoJo is 24 vs. his L28 of 19 with an 18-31 range. DeRozan is at 40 with a range of 18-54. Those 3 guys are only on the team averaging 30+ minutes in those games. We could use some news on Carroll. He missed last game. Powell and Tucker did not do much but we would still expect some bumps for them if he misses again. Projections will start with small bumps assuming he is out or limited. Washington – no issues. Links to projections are up. Updates during the day and updated projections with math-based lineups will be posted by 3:00 Central.
  3. March 3 NBA DFS Preview

    My prelim. thoughts on today: March 3 Preview PHO and OKC played yesterday Atlanta - Ilyasova had his first nice game for the Hawks last time out with 25 DFS points in 25 minutes. That's the first time in 4 games he's hit the 20 DFS point mark. AT $4800 on FanDuel, he is too expensive to pick but at $4100 on DraftKings he is about an option. Home vs. CLE could be tough going. Hardaway continues his slide with Sefo back. He's had 5 in a row in the teens and is not a good option. Prince is earning more minutes. He is averaging 15 over the L28 and 24 over the L7. He's someone to look at to get 15-20 if those minutes hold and allow for upgrades elsewhere. Brooklyn - Jeremy Lin scored 25 FD points in only 19 minutes last game. They have a b2b today/tomorrow so watch for news. I've taken out bumps in the projections for Bogdanovic gone due to Lin coming back but if Lin is out, we need to plug those back in as someone needs to score. Booker, RHJ, and Dinwiddle have been serviceable options. Cleveland - Deron played a healthy 23 minutes in his first game but only scored 9 DFS so we can't even put him on the map yet. Frye has fallen almost completely off the grid as well. Dallas - Curry and Barnes went in the 30's DFS last game with Wesley Matthews out. They should benefit again if he misses. LA Lakers - Russell seems to be trending up and is backed by Magic J. 47,26,39 FD points since the break in an average of 33 minutes. Keep an eye on Lakers' players minutes and usage as Magic may have different opinions on who should be getting the ball. I think he has to look at the #1 picks and let loose with Russell and Ingram and I subjectively look for those guys to rise. A guy like Ingram, at 19yo and on a fairly bad team, will surely have days of inconsistency though. Milwaukee - MIddleton scored 35 in 28 minutes last game with no Parker or Beasley. Brogdon started last game and has 2 games in a row in the 30's minutes and around 30 DFS. New York - Projections assume Hernangomez is out. We talked last time about both him and Noah being out. KP and KOQ getting bumps. Lance Thomas is moving up in minutes having 29+ in 4 straight. Courtney Lee is really inconsistent. Last 4 games DK scores of 42,15,37,16. OKC - Yesterday Westbrook with a 60. Kanter and Gibson had 30's and no one else hit 20. Orlando - With Watson out, Augustin usurped Payton for PG scoring and minutes last game. Avoid all these guys pending some definitive news. T.Ross laid down a poor game for the Raptors last game with 17 DFS points. He did have 36 minutes though. He's a rough one to call. He's had Special Situations in his favor last season and this season without delivering much at all. Then he comes to Orlando and suddenly has a few good DFS games. It looks like he's going to be getting plenty of minutes. Even after his 16FD game last time, he went up another $400 to $4900 today. He's at $5500 DK. Philly - Okafor was bad last game. He does have the starting C apparently to himself the rest of the season so we will see. Projections of low 20s will continue to feel about right. Holmes may creep up as the main backup and maybe the guy that will play better anyway. Math is liking him already and I've got him scoring more than Okafor. Phoenix - Alan Williams had another big night last night while Len scored 12 DFS. Toronto - CoJo heading down but still averaging 26 FD points in 5 games without Lowry. The last two have both been below that. DeRozan still averaging 47 in 5 games but only had a 30 last game so his range is now 30-57 in 5 games Lowry has missed. Utah - after only 8 DFS points in 21 minutes in his first game back in over a month, Hood scored 22 in 26 and 23 in 30. He then missed the last game and will miss again today. FD and DK projections, stats, and best math-based lineups for regular, low, and high risk are on site. Thanks.
  4. NBA February 24 Preview

    Welcome back from the break! Here's my morning preview. Projections and lineups are on site. DEN and LAC played yesterday. Atlanta – added Ilyasova to go with Millsap. No news yet on whether he plays today. I’m not adjusting the projections other than knocking Ersan down. I think we have to see how this plays out. Muscala and Humphries remain in the mix for now as well. Sefolosha may be ready to come back. Hardaway has been averaging about 30 DFS points over the past couple weeks. Brooklyn – Jeremy Lin will probably be back today. He is probably too risky to play. Chicago – math likes Wade. Remember that he did have the wrist issue prior to the break. They added Lauvergne, Payne, and Morrow. Projections don’t assume they are viable or subtract from Butler or Wade. Any other of the role players will be risky. The PG situation has been a coin flip for a while. Remember about the final comment I made prior to the break? “I think everyone would like to see what Portis can do with some extended run.” Well Gibson is gone so he should get his chance. It’s up to you if you want to jump on board in game 1 here or ride him as he hopefully climbs. If we get news he is starting and going to get good minutes, he’s definitely in play. Upside: He’s had 2 games this season of 25+ minutes and scored 23,29 in those. Downside: He also did have 5 games in a row right near the break where he played 6 minutes or less. In 2 games Gibson missed this season, he scored 1,12 DFS points. Dallas – added N.Noel. Projections will have him and Dirk in the mid-20’s in a tough matchup with KAT. Deron Williams is released and looks to be signing with CLE. Indiana – Young and Allen questionable. Seraphin had 27,26,25 minutes in the three game without those guys before the break but only scored 18,9,14 DFS points. Is Monta Ellis finally hitting stride? He had 4 in a row at 30+ minutes prior to the break with all being low to mid 20s. LA Clippers -will CP3 be back today and will he be limited? Miami – Josh Richardson may be back today. Milwaukee – In the 4 games Parker has missed, the upgrades are spread around. Monroe is averaging 35 with a range of 14-49. Snell is 20 vs. his L28 of 14 with a range of 13-27. Beasley is 26 vs. 15 with a 17-41. Greek is 48 with a 25-59. Minnesota – In the last 7 games without Lavine, Wiggins is averaging 44 with a 35-51 range. OKC – McDermott and Taj Gibson are on board for their first game for the Thunder. Unless we have news otherwise, I think Westbrook and Dipo are the only guys to look at for DFS today. Philly – Embiid out and Noel gone will make Okafor a popular play. We’ve had that same situation throughout the season. Okafor has averaged 24 in 18 games without Embiid. He averaged 21 in 22 games without Noel. San Antonio – P.Gasol is probable to be back today.
  5. NBA Feb 10 DFS Preview

    February 10 Preview Atlanta – Sefolosha will miss again. In the most recent stretch of 6 games he has missed, Hardaway is averaging 30 DFS points vs. his L28 average of 25 in an average of 35 minutes per game with a range of 18-44. Chicago – Butler should be back. Waiting on news on Wade. Denver – Faried will be out today. He’s missed 5 games on the season with no great DFS replacement or upticks. Nurkic is the closest as he has averaged 20 vs. L28 of 10 with a wide range of 5-31. He hasn’t done particularly well even when Jokic was out lately. The other ‘Hernangomez’ only averages 11 in 3 games without Faried. D.Arthur seems the most likely candidate but his DFS results in 4 games without Faried is an 18 average with a fairly narrow range of 16-21. He seems to be a nice cheap option if you want to upgrade elsewhere as long as you are ok with one of your players scoring in the teens to low 20s. Mudiay remains out. Nelson averaging 23 and Murray 18 in his absence. Gallinari remains out as well. He’s missed 8 on the season with Murray and Chandler getting bumps. Murray averaging 23 with a 16-32 range. Chandler 35 vs. his L28 of 28 with an 11-51 range and averaging 34.5 minutes. In just the most recent stretch of 4 games Dano has missed, Murray is at 21 (without Mudiay also), Chandler is at 32 with a 11-47, and Barton is at 32 vs. his normal 26 with a range of 16-49. His last two games are both 40+. In such a small sample, we do not like to see those guys with the low on the range being so far below their norm. The minimum being above the L28 moves the player towards ‘must play’ in his Special Situation. Golden State – Pachulia and West will continue to be out. In the most recent 4 games, McGee is averaging 18.5 vs. 15 with a 5-24 range. Draymond is 38 vs. 34 with a 36-41. Indiana – T.Young will miss again. He’s missed3. Lavoy Allen is starting and getting the increase in minutes as well. He is averaging 23 (40,15,12) vs. L28 of 11 with a range of 12-40. Wide range and risky with him but he is averaging 28 minutes vs. his normal of 17. Memphis – ZBo missed last game and still listed as questionable. I will leave him in the projections for now. J.Green had a nice game with Carter out and he would get bumps again if ZBo is out. Parsons will get the day off as well. I’m putting in small bumps for Green, Ennis, and Allen. In the most recent 4 games Parsons has missed, Green is 24 vs. 20 with a 15-41, Ennis is 20 vs. 15 with a 12-26, and T.Allen is 24 vs. 20 with a 16-32. Carter missed last game so he’ll be in the mix as well. Miami – Waiters listed as questionable. Projections will assume he remains out. While, he missed the start of the season, he’s missed only the last game recently. In that one McGruder scored 23 DFS in 35 minutes, Ellington 20 in 28, and Johnson 26 in 27. I had expected Johnson to do much better which could still be the case in what should be an easier game @BKN today. Milwaukee – Jabari Parker is done for the season and probably half of next season as well with his second torn ACL. He hadn’t missed a game yet this season. Last season he missed 6. A lot of the role players were different last year and Greek hadn’t really turned into the monster he is this year. He averaged 33 in the 5 of those games he played with a range of 26-41. Middleton only averaged 20 with an 8-32 range. If anything, the guards seemed to benefit the most last season as MCW averaged 26, Bayless 22 vs. 15, and Vasquez 20 vs. 8. The projections today will be Mike’s assumptions on minutes and usage change. I’ll try to keep my K-State homerism for Beasley at bay. Watch Henson as he keeps trending up in DFS and minutes. Minnesota – Lavine is also done for the year and this will be the 4th straight and 7th overall he has missed. Whether looking at the full 6 or just the last 3, the results are about the same. Tyus Jones is averaging 18-21 vs. L28 of 10 with a most recent range of 14-26. Wiggins is the safest play averaging 40 vs. 34 with a 35-49 range over 3 or 28-56 over all 6. Lance was picked up and scored 11 DFS in 19 minutes last game. Kriss Dunn being out is elevating Jones as well so watch his status if you are contemplating Jones. New Orleans – Tyreke questionable. Projections have him out. Frazier scored 20 in 24 last game. New York – just a tangent that I would like a break from the incessant media coverage of non-stories from the Knicks. No trade request by Melo. Organization not saying they are trading him. Report some news when there is actually news. All I see is nonstop coverage dissecting Phil Jackson’s every work of every tweet and what it might mean. Are they really that dysfunctional or does the NY-based media not dissect every word of the Raptors GM that much? Ugh! [/rant] Noah will probably be out again. He’s missed 2 in a row, 4 recently, and 7 for the season. I’ve analyzed them all to come up with the projections for today. In the most recent 4, Hernangomez is 27 vs. 22 with a 21-31, KOQ 23 vs. 20 with a 5-37 and Porz 31 vs. 26 with a 25-40. The L2 were Hernan 21,30, KOQ 13,37, KP 29,40. Sacramento – Subjective projections without Cousins last game ended up very good for nearly all players with Lawson under and Collison over due to injury. Hopefully we can do just as good today with Cousins out and Lawson out. Ty Lawson being out is one of our DFS Laws where we say ‘Lawson out, Collison In’. Add in that Rudy Gay is gone and Temple is gone and I think you know where this is going. In two games Lawson has missed, Collison has scored 35,39. Temple scored 17,28 in those and Gay played in 1. Barnes is still averaging 32 vs. L28 of 20 with Temple out with a range of 25-37. Other players are going to be more risky but will get upgrades with more minutes to go around. Washington – Markieff is questionable. He has missed 2 games on the season. Oubre is the direct replacement logging 32,40 minutes in those but only scoring 5,27 DFS points makes him pretty risky. The Wizards have enough scoring options to spread around. In the 2 games Morriss missed, Gortat scored 35,38 vs. L28 of 30. Wall scored 51,53. Beal 37,41. Even Jason Smith had 27,27. Need news before jumping on these guys due to MM being out. Projections and Math-Based lineups coming on the site.
  6. NBA Feb 3 DFS Preview

    Boston- Olynyk questionable. I'm leaving him in for now as he was supposed to play last game before being a late scratch. Bradley is questionable. Projections will wait for some news and be updated. Chicago - After DFS scores of 34,31, Rondo scored 8 in the last game. I'm still staying away from the PG situation with the Bulls. Dallas - Bogut will miss again today. No impact on DFS. Yogi continued to log huge minutes. He 'only' scored 24 DFS last game but logged another 37 minutes. After only three games he has a 28 average but I'm keeping him at a max 10.0 Risk Factor due to the low sample size. Three games is enough to get a 70% confidence interval of 23-34 so far. $4900 of FD and $5100 on DK makes the 28 average look very attractive. Deron Williams is questionable. If he plays, all the PG don't look very good but one would think they can ease him back and not want to disrupt the good thing they have going with wins this week over SAS, CLE, and PHI. Denver - some teams just eat up my whole evening/morning to analyze. Ok - here we go: Jokic questionable is news we need. Faried wasn't quite as good last game and he is probable for today. Projections currently assume Jokic is out. Mudiay is questionable but will be coming off the bench behind Nelson so we are leaving Nelson as the full starter and Mudiay and Murray are not playable. Nelson's 4 minutes of play last game thanks to being ejected is removed from my history. Dano Gallinari is out. He has missed 4 games on the season with 3 of them in late November. Hernangomez has played in two of the four scoring 20,25 DFS in a healthy 27,38 minutes. Nelson, Murray have also bumped up in those games even with Mudiay playing. Wilson Chandler has played in 3 of those with a healthy 39 FanDuel average and a range of 23-51. Of course, this week Wilson Chandler requested to be traded so we will see if that has an impact on his game or playing time. Barton scored 6,33 in the 2 games he played with Dano out. He would probably have a big role if it wasn't for the fact that he has missed the last 2 games and is also questionable for today. Throw all of that in the pot and check out the projections and remarks to see where I am currently at for their DFS scores. LA Lakers- Randle logged 5 minutes yesterday. Probably have to assume he will be limited again today. Zubac proved his Risk Factor with a clunker 9 FanDuel in 11 minutes yesterday. Mozgov was worse! They both had minutes in the 20s but it just did not translate to DFS yesterday. Black only had 13 minutes but turned it into 25 DFS points. Russell stayed hot with another 40. OKC - Three games of history with no Kanter now. King Joff 9-19. Adams is down. Sabonis 7-25. Sacramento - Temple was still getting more run and a small bump from Rudy Gay being out and now Temple is out This will be his first missed game of the season. For the time being, I don't think Afllalo and McLemore are as good options to get some extra minutes and DFS scoring as playmakers like Collison and Lawson. My thinking is the latter two as they generally do not average 30 minutes and therefore have some room for more. Lawson is a playmaker and only getting 23 minutes per game so I would look for him to be the bigger winner. Toronto - DeRozan questionable. Powell a little disappointing that he wasn't 30+ again last game but even at 17 DFS he was not a clunker in the $240s CPP. He was also 90%+ owned in about everything last game. He's still averaging 27 in 5 games with a new low on the range of 17-32. Below are the links for FanDuel and Draftkings showing where the projections are at so far today. I will be doing a deeper dive and looking for news of the day for an update this afternoon which will include the normal Math-Preferred, High Risk, and Low Risk lineups for both FanDuel and DraftKings. NBA Player Lineup Preview_DraftKings NBA Player Lineup Preview_FanDuel
  7. NBA Jan 20 Preview

    Free Friday at with morning preview copied below. January 27 Preview IND played yesterday. Atlanta - Muscala is questionable. Humphries gets a bump but not enough to be playable and very risky. Boston - Bradley out. The math has caught up with him being out. Brooklyn - Joe Harris still out. Kilpatrick was getting a small increase but threw up such a dud last time that I've backed that out. Charlotte - watch for news on Cody Zeller. Hawes scored 33 FanDuel points in 29 minutes last game. He's averaging 25 vs. his norm of 18 in 8 games Zeller has missed this season with a range of 18-33. The minimum is at his L28 which is nice. He's one of the best values on the board today but get him out if CZ plays. Kaminsky is 22 vs. 18 with a range of 10-31. Lamb is also questionable. Belinelli has been getting more with him out but neither should be playable with the large slate today. Chicago - Apparently, Rondo is a great teammate. Just ask him! If you haven't seen his social media post, check it out. For the projections, all the PGs are off the board so no need to look for them. Cleveland - going off-topic for the 2nd time today. I love LBJ but comments this week on the roster seem really bad. I understand his time is limited and he needs every championship but they already have the highest payroll in the a mile..on the roster he constructed. Calling out his teammates as not good enough?! C'mon. Also, you saying you need a playmaker? Like Wiggins maybe? lol. I think the comments stem from LBJ averaging an absurd 38 minutes per game in the L28 and L56 so they really need to cut back on his minutes somehow...and still keep winning. Hence the problem and his frustration. Cavs are at home vs. Nets today so the math is bumping everyone up on the atrocious defense. They didn't play yesterday or tomorrow but do have a b2b Sun/Mon so I wouldn't be surprised if they go deep on the roster in a blowout today. 15-point spread on this game. Houston - Capela seems to be ramping up minutes slowly after coming back. His minutes since coming back are 8, 10, 20, 16, 22, 20. He's over 1.1 DFS points per minutes so he just needs the minutes back. Eric Gordon missed last game. He's missed 3 on the season. In those Ryan Anderson has a 27 average vs. L28 of 20 with a range of 22-34. Some of that comes from Ariza being down in those games also. Harden 52-69 with Gordon out. Sam Dekker has been interesting lately. Starting at minimum cost, his last 4 DFS scores were 30,39,5,24. In all 4 Gordon missed, he's only averaging 15 but could be different going forward. 5.6 Risk Factor over the L28 is pretty high. Indiana - Brooks and Ellis questionable with no sure impact directly on the main guys. Memphis - Green and Parsons questionable. They are in the projections as a full-go. Miami - I believe I mentioned that Whiteside's numbers look like an injury as hasn't been himself since the eye issue. Well, it came out since the last game that he is dealing with an ankle issue. He's listed as questionable and we would like to have the news here as replacements have been good this season. In the 4 games he has missed, W.Reed has averaged 30 vs. his L28 of 20 with a very wide range of 11-52. There's been a lot of small ball in those games allow Johnson to average 32 vs. his normal 26 with a very tight range of 30-34 FD points. If Whiteside is out, here's where you can have a similar projections with 2 guys with wildly different Risk profiles. Even over the L28, Reed has a Risk Factor of 6.7 while Johnson is 2.8. Basic projections already have Whiteside >$300CPP. I'll wait for news before bumping the other guys. Johnson and Richardson will remain out for the 4th game in a row. In the last 3, Dragic has scored 29-42. Ellington 23-28, and of course Waiters has been monster at 40-44. He's up $1000 from $5200-$6200. Babbitt has increased every game scoring 7, 14, and then 22 FD points. FanDuel is still not listing White who scored 29FD last game, 30 on DK at min. price. The Heat like him and will probably cost Williams his job. New Orleans - Brow probable vs. SAS today. New York - Hernangomez b2b 30+ games in only 34 minutes each. Orlando - Augustin questionable. Meeks out. Fournier and Wilcox will probably miss again. Payton had a major clunker last game, even with DJ out, but he should be ok. Jeff Green continues to get extra minutes with guys out and he is a viable DFS option if they all miss again. CJ Watson getting plenty of minutes with the guys out but he has not been a DFS option. Philly - Embiid questionable. It's Rockets @ Philly on ESPN tonight so you know the 76ers would love to have him go for a rare nationally televised game. No point spread on this game waiting on the news. Morning 'placeholder' projections have Embiid playing but limited with Okafor out. Portland - Harkless is questionable. Turner has averaged 24 vs. his L28 of 21 in 3 games he's missed. Turner's minutes are trending up as well but his DFS results have been flat as you can see in the trending on the spreadsheet. San Antonio - Lee still averaging 24 vs. L28 of 19 with Gasol out with a range of 14-36 in 6 games. Parker and Leonard questionable. The projections have them at a full go. Sacramento - still no huge boost for anyone without Rudy Gay in there. In 15 games on the season, Temple has averaged 24. In the most recent 4-game stretch he's also averaged 24 with a 20-28 range. WC-Stein complained about playing time a bit and now he's got a 4-game stretch getting in there more. Minutes have been 12,12,21,26 in the last 4 with DFS points at about 1 per minute with those two 20+ minutes games coming after he voiced his frustration. Toronto - 2 games now without DeRozan. Powell the big winner scoring 30,31 FanDuel points in 33,39 minutes vs. his L28 of 11. Ross hand Carroll have both scored a 9 and 25. CoJo 19,20. Lowry 36,50 in 39,41 minutes. Math likes Noguiera but he's pretty risky and a little low projection at only 20. NBA Player Lineup Preview_DraftKings NBA Player Lineup Preview_FanDuel Top 10 Math-Based Lineups (basic, high and low risk) this afternoon by 4:00 Central after we get more news of the day. I'll post for the FanDuel Switcheroo slate as well with SGs and Cs reversed.
  8. NBA January 20 Preview

    Free Friday! January 20 Preview DAL played yesterday. Atlanta - Muscala will miss his 3rd game. In the first two, Humphries has scored 16,25 FD points in 19,24 minutes. One of those games was without D12 also though. Here's a weird one. In the 7 games Korver has been gone, Hardaway has gone under $200CPP 5 times and >$400CPP the other two. He's had those clunkers in 2 of the last 3 after a very hot start and getting more minutes after Korver left. Result is a high Risk Factor of 5.5. Charlotte - Jeremy Lamb is questionable to miss again today which would be his 16th of the season. Belinelli is averaging 20 vs. his L28 of 16 in those with a wide range of 11-38. No one else upgrades over those and no one does if you look at just the latest 3-game stint of misses. Chicago - Taj Gibson is questionable to miss his 2nd game of the season. In the prior one, RoLo had a big 26 in 35 minutes which makes more sense to me than grabbing Mirotic based on TG style of play. I'm leaving him in the projections with a slight decrease though as he appears closer to probable. Dallas - almost same comments as yesterday with AB out. Mejri and Powell got minutes in the teens. Dirk with 27FD yesterday. Careful as this is a b2b vs. tough UTA. Houston - Capela 8 and 10 minutes in 2 games back so he is a non-factor but we like to see that price drop of $700 already. After a 4FD in 15 minutes, Harrell came back with 36 in 26 last game. LA Lakers - watch Zubac. He's played in 4 games in a row now with his best game last time out with a 35FD in 26 minutes at minimum cost. @$3800FD today. L.Deng is questionable to miss his 4th of the season. Clarkson has scored between 26-30 in the other three in an average of +7 minutes. Ingram is averaging 26 vs. his normal 18 with a range of 17-33 in 31-37 minutes. Memphis - hopefully the best game of the day! Orlando - Meeks out 4-6 weeks. Fournier maybe still out. Look for the normal scorers to bump up and pick up the DFS slack while role players get the minutes. Payton has one of the highest risk factors for a guy that averages around 30. Or 10. Or 50. Philly - Embiid 4 games in a row in the 40's and still not cracking over 28 minutes. Sacramento - Casspi out. Rudy Gay done for the year. In 10 games without Gay this season, Cousins is actually below his L28 at 44 vs. 49. Temple has been the biggest winner averaging 23 vs. his normal 18 with a wide range of 11-34. Ty Lawson is questionable. Collison is one of the best Special Situation DFS plays with Ty Lawson as he is a direct replacement and also has talent. He's scored 35,39 FD points in 35,37 minutes in 2 games Lawson has missed. News we need here! If interested, morning projections and math-based lineups are on site. Thanks.
  9. NBA January 15 Preview

    January 15 Preview LAL and CHI played yesterday. No HOU/BKN game on DK. Brooklyn - If you are looking for value and willing to take a little more risk, Whitehead is out again today and Lin remains out. In the last game, Dinwiddle played 27 minutes vs. his normal 21 scoring 22FD. Foye played 23 vs. 15 also scoring 22FD. Chicago - Rondo and MCW killing each other's value. Butler came back with a 55. His $9400 salary is looking cheap these days averaging 56FD in his last 7 games and 47 in the L28. I'm bumping him down on the b2b and playing @MEM. Dallas - you can see Dirk averaging 30 minutes per game over the L7 vs. 23 over the other time frames. Detroit - With Caldwell-Pope out, Stanley Johnson has scored 10,26 while Morris 16,33. Houston - Gordon played last game but only scored 14FD points vs. MEM. He played 30 minutes so he may be lightly owned today with good value @BKN. Minnesota - news to watch today includes LaVine. He's missed 3 games on the season and two in a row. Rubio is averaging 39 vs. his L28 of 30 with a range of 34-43 in those. Wiggins is 40 vs. 31 with a 28-56. KAT is up a couple points. In the last two games, Rush has played a massive 36,39 minutes scoring 23,30 FD points. He's not normally a good DFS play so buyer beware but you'd think he would get good minutes considering his performances in the past two. Projections and lineups will assume LaVine is OUT. Back out the adjustments if news comes he plays. New York - projections will also assume Porzingis is out. Noah has been the reliable option in 4 games KP has missed. He is averaging 33FD vs. L28 of 24 with a nice range of 30-39 in those games. L.Thomas gets the minutes bump at +10 per game but he's not a DFS option. Melo is surprisingly only up 2 with a wide 12-56 range. The wildcard option today is Kuzminskas. He's averaging 22 vs. his L28 of only 13 with a range of 11-31 in games KP is out including that 31FD in 30 minutes last game. He comes with a nice CPP projection and a massive 7.4 Risk Factor today.
  10. NBA Jan 13 thoughts

    copied from morning writeup on site January 13 Preview BKN and DET played yesterday. Brooklyn – T.Booker was downgraded yesterday due to being GTD with a hip issue. He put up 32FD in 29 minutes so he seems fine. Be careful with the b2b today though. Whitehead left the game yesterday early and is listed as questionable. He’s missed 7 games on the season. One would think Kilpatrick gets a boost but he is only averaging 21.7 vs. 20 in those games with a wide range. If you look at the 3 games both he and Lin missed, SK is still 22 vs. 20. R?HJ is 24 vs. 19 with a 10-43. I don’t feel comfortable bumping anyone whether he is in or out on this b2b. Boston – Smart back to earth with 18FD in 36 minutes last game even with Bradley out. I haven’t recommended him yet due to what I always say about the Celts – outside of IT and consistent Horford, it can be anyone on any given night. Smart does have a 40 and 35 in the two games before that so I missed out on those. IT has been solid the last 3 with 47,38,49 with Bradley out. Amir Johnson is questionable which could make Horford more solid but Olynyk probably takes over his backup minutes and with Zeller out as well, KO would be a nice money-saving flier for the lineup today as he is projected at 17/$3700 with no bump and he’s been trending up at 19 average over the past two weeks (L14) and 20+ the past week. Charlotte – C.Zeller came back last game and is probably for today. Batum probably comes back today as well. Cleveland – just a note that Korver has b2b 5FD games to start his Cavs stint in 17,25 minutes. Detroit – Boban got the garbage time as usual vs. GSW. Possibility @UTA today in what could be a low scoring game. T.Harris has 20+ in 11 straight games and with Leuer out he should be a solid, low-risk choice. KCP left after a few minutes of yesterday’s game. He’s questionable today and I’m bumping him out. He’s only missed 1 game this season. In that one Stanley Johnson scored 26FD vs. his normal 10 in +8 minutes. Marcus Morris had a big game then as well with 33 in 37. Houston – Gordon is questionable. Brewer was disappointing with a 14 in 27 last game. Harden 58,69 in two games Gordon’s been out. Projections assume EG is out again. Miami – I mentioned Whiteside last game as his cost had dropped $1000 with his eye issue and now he seemed to be back fine. He responded with a nice 57/$8200/$143 CPP. He’s back to $8600 today but mathbox not liking him at 36/$241 @ tough MIL. J.Richardson will miss again today. He’s missed a bunch of games this year but if we just look at the last two with the team ‘as is’, we see that McGruder has gotten 31,34 minutes but only 13,15 FD points. Waiters is the high risk/reward guy with 15,37 minutes and 9,27 FD points but at $4900 is just don’t see the value there is worth it. Dragic has played 37,42 minutes and that’s the guy to target. Those were tough games @LAC and @GSW. Milwaukee – Monroe still trending up. I’m taking away the trending bumps from last time vs. Whiteside. It’s not taken long for Brogdon to go from minimum price to $5200. He’s looked great but probably to a price point where you can go either way as long as Greek and Parker are playing. With Greek full strength and running the offense, I foresee low 20’s going forward on average. Greek played all of 9 minutes last game (fyi – I eliminate games like this from history so you will not see them in the L7, L14, etc… and you will see them in the ‘games missed’ calcs for other players). He should be a full-go today. Minnesota – LaVine ended up not playing last game. As narrative expected, KAT (54FD), Rubio (40), and Wiggins did well (35). We knew Muhammad would get the extra minutes but he actually id very well with a 30FD. This is news to watch as all these guys get some bump if LaVine is out again. Projections are going to assume he plays though. Orlando – Ibaka missed last game but is probably going to play today. We thought A.Gordon might have a big game when Ibaka misses and he did with a nice line of 34/$4600/$135CPP. He’s a very high Risk Factor with Ibaka in there. Payton was questionable last game and then benched in the 4th. Augustin has played 28,28,27 minutes in the last 3 games with a max of 23FD points so the guards are probably just best to avoid right now. Philly – Embiid will play today and not tomorrow. No Okafor sighting in the past 10 days. Most likely we’re seeing Noel get showcased with minutes in the 20s every day for a trade. He may be a great play tomorrow. McConnell vs. Rodriguez trending is quite the dramatic polar opposites. TJ no less than 34 minutes in the past 5 games. His cost has jumped from $3800 to $5400. He’s looking good still today with 30FD averages over recent time frames and I think tomorrow as well @WAS with no Embiid. Toronto – mathbox likes teams playing the Nets. projections and lineups on site
  11. NBA Jan 4 thoughts

    not much action around here so I'll start with my thoughts copied below, all in FanDuel (FD) numbers: Charlotte - C.Zeller is out again today. It will be his 5th missed game of the season. The history clearly favors Hawes as he has averaged 23FD points vs. his normal 8 in those games with a range of 18-30. He's averaged 26 minutes vs. normal 11. Hibbert has only averaged 7FD in those games. Last game, Hawes scored 18 in 26 minutes while Hibbert scored 5 in 21. Projections also assume Belinelli misses again. In 5 games he has missed, Walker and Batum have bumped up a couple points. The direct replacements of MKG is averaging 23 vs. 20 with a 15-31 range and Lamb is at 22 vs. 18 with a nice 18-28. Chicago - drama at the PG position continues. In 2 games Rondo has missed completely, MCW has 17,26 and Grant has 6,35. Wade is questionable. He missed last game while Butler went ballistic with 81FD points. Wade has missed 3 on the season with Butler having a low of 44 in those. His cost jumped a full $1000 from $8300 to $9300 after that last big game. He will be a popular play if Wade is out but be careful with that huge price tag playing @Lebron and CLE. For the projections I am bumping down Wade a bit and leaving Butler alone for now. Determine where you want to place them once we get more news from both CHI and CLE. Cleveland - Big 3 all listed as questionable. Irving seems most likely to miss. It would be his 5th missed game. In the other 4 Felder is at 18 with a range of 7*26, McRae 13/4-26. JR played in the first 2. In the last two most recent games, Felder has 16,22, McRae 11,26 and LBJ 45,54. Love has been unchanged with Irving out so far. LBJ looks like the safe bet and probably pass on the PGs barring news of a clear starter who will get a lot of minutes. LA Clippers - CP probably out again today for his 7th missed game. In the previous ones, Jordan is still a couple ticks down. Felton is the safest bet with good numbers. He is averaging 26 vs. L28 of 16 with a range of 16-41. What is also nice is his minutes have not dropped below 30 with a range of 30-37. Throwing out Rivers ejection, he is still variable with an average of only 19 and range of 13-27 and minutes 14-42. Crawford looks pretty good as well with a 25 vs. L28 of 19. Wide range of 11-39 but good minutes of 29-35. Possible tough sledding at home vs. MEM today. Memphis - J.Green got whacked in the eye yesterday and I'm guessing he misses today. He hasn't missed yet this season. ZBo may start but I doubt he gets a huge bump as he dominates the 2nd unit. J.Martin probably gets the biggest bump in minutes but isn't typically a DFS play. We may see some bumps to guys like Allen, Carter, and Parsons as well but they would be risky to target @LAC. Barring other news, I'm bumping Green down in the projections and leaving others alone. Miami - W.Reed blasted out with a 50+ in 32 minutes yesterday with Whiteside and Johnson both out. T.Johnson was also ruled out late allowing Dragic to go off for 40+ in 37 minutes. Now they get a b2b @SAC today. We really need news help to figure out who to play but there should be good value if guys are out again. Waiters has a chance to return today as well and he could immediately be needed to soak up some minutes. Milwaukee - what should be a popular play of the day will be Brogdon again with Delly out. In 3 games he has averaged 28 vs. L28 of 20 with a range of 20-43 in 32-38 minutes. Outside of the 43 game, he has a 20 and 22. He may score low 20's with Greek running the offense but the upside is hard to pass up at $4400. Math is really liking the Greek @NY's bad defense. New York - Porz has missed the last 2 and may miss again today. Noah has been the biggest beneficiary scoring 30,39 in 28,32 minutes although Kyle O'Quinn missed one of those games as well. Orlando - news to watch as Fournier is questionable. He has missed 5 games and Meeks has averaged 21 vs. 15 with a 16-27 range in 22-31 minutes. Portland - Lillard probably out again. In 4 games he has missed Aminu is 20 vs. normal 17 with a 17-24 range in +5 minutes. CJM is 41 vs. 34 with a 32-58 range. He jumped from a 2-point bump to a 6-point bump after the last big game and will be needed @GSW today. Crabbe is +5 minutes but not a good DFS option. Sacramento - I had Collison #2 overall yesterday and my narrative said bump him up further if Lawson was out for sure. He ended up with 39/$4100/$105CPP in 35 minutes. Rinse and repeat and hope we get early news today home vs. MIA. If you want to assume Lawson would be very limited with eye issues, you could plug him in anyway. With Gay still out, Afflalo finally had a good game with 26FD at min cost while Temple had a good line of 28/$4200/$152CPP. Koufos had a 27/$3700/$140CPP against his former team and I would not expect a repeat today.