danmam

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  1. That's one way to see it. [Sidenote: TyMont is a subpar passblocker as well as far as I'm aware]. My biggest concern to Williams' productivity would be games were the Packers jump out to big leads -- then it's likely you're gonna see a lot of Aaron Jones as the Packers run down the clock. I do think calling Williams a bellcow (absent an injury to Jones) is a stretch, as they're likely to do something more akin to rotating series (not necessarily 50/50, but 2 Williams, 1 Jones, with TyMont sprinkled in on some 3rd downs or in 2-back sets) when both are healthy. But I think Williams is the obvious odds-on favorite to lead the Packers backfield in 1) snaps, 2) carries, 3) receptions, and with 2 and 3 comes 4) rushing yards and 5) receiving yards, and most likely 6) TDs. And I don't think the numbers will be ugly at the end of the year (again, assuming health)...I could see Williams with 800 rushing yards, 500 receiving yards, and 8 TDs, and that's some pretty solid production for a guy drafted where he was drafted. That's with Jones in the 400 rushing yards, 150-200 receiving yards, 2 TDs range and TyMont probably around there or a bit lower. Or you can shift everything down a bit because the Packers have some gnarly defenses they'll be going against. But in any case, I'm still of the opinion Jamaal is by far the guy to own, and not only that, he's a prime buy-low after week 2 because I don't expect a lot of success rushing against the Vikings either. I'm no perfect prognosticator; I just might be 100% on this and Jones is going to burst in and steal the touches, the snaps, and the spotlight, but based on everything I've read and watched and know as a Packers fan, this is how I see it playing out.
  2. I don't think it's typically that simple — a RB will be lined up in the backfield and next to Rodgers, for instance, and his responsibilities for the play can vary greatly depending on what the defense does. To list a few: A) Pick up a free blitzer if Rodgers/the o-line recognizes or suspects someone's coming who's unaccounted for by the o-line. B.) If the defense DOES blitz but the offense is prepared to handle it through other means (designed rollout away from the blitz, or an extra TE kept in to block), the RB can run a pass route without needing to pass block C) All sorts of middle-ground situations exist, such as one where the RB provides a quick chip block to help an o-lineman with his man the leaks into the flat for a pass. And tons of situations not mentioned above. It's all a game of QB (mainly) and the rest of the offense identifying what the defense will do, being on the same page, reacting, and executing. So many more layers than "Jamaal you're pass-blocking this play."
  3. Very few, if any, of the players who are "Team Williams" are claiming that Aaron Jones has no spot in this offense when he returns. He's an obviously dynamic rusher who without a doubt can add explosiveness to this offense in a chance-of-pace role. But those of you who think Jones is going to usurp the #1 RB spot in Green Bay are sorely mistaken. It's been hammered time and again above, but the reason is crystal clear: pass-blocking. I want you to take a look at this video from tonight's game of Jamaal Williams absolutely ******** stonewalling Danny Trevathan: http://a.video.nfl.com/films/vodzilla/143753/Davante_Adams_with_a_spectacular_catch_f-Mn4c8pFt-20180909_19503684_5000k.mp4. (watch the whole thing because midway through Collinsworth goes back and points it out). In order for that play to stand a chance, Williams needs to: A) in a split second, realize where the free rusher is coming from, B.) without ANY hesitation, lunge full speed at the free rusher, and then C) absolutely stonewall him (which is no small feat when the blitzer is Danny Trevathan). Look at the size of the hole Trevathan had to rush through that Williams had to fill -- LBs are taught pass rush moves (spin moves, swim moves, etc.). Here he went for a straight bull-rush because hell, he's facing a RB,not an OL like he's used to facing, he can push him around. And Williams completely handles him. All it takes is a quarter of a second of hesitation, at most, either in recognizing who he needs to block, or in taking that first step towards filling the hole that Trevathan is blasting through, and Williams either doesn't have enough leverage to slow Trevathan's progress enough, or (more likely) he isn't able to meet him head-on but instead pushes him towards Rodgers (resulting in a sack)....Collinsworth's effusive praise of Williams is absolutely well-deserved because that is a pass-blocking play that only a tiny minority of NFL RBs are able to make. It's so easy as a fan to think of RB pass-blocking skills as nothing but an abstraction, and one that at its worst prevents us from seeing our teams play the OBVIOUSLY better players (like Aaron Jones, who obviously outperformed Williams as a rusher last year). It's good every once in awhile to see a concrete example of Williams' pass-blocking skill here turn what would've almost certainly been a sack into a huge passing gain. Something that won't show up on the stat sheet, but I guarantee will be weighted heavily in the minds of the Packers' offensive decision makers (as it should be) when deciding how to divvy up RB reps next week and as the season goes on. And also, please note, I love Jones...if you could turn him into a pass-blocker half as good as Williams you'd have a superstar on your hands. But he had two good games last year: 19/125 vs Dal with Rodgers healthy, and 17/131 vs NO the week after Rodgers got hurt. I'm not going to make a strong argument about how Williams is a better runner than Jones, because obviously the YPC are vastly different last year (5.5 for Jones vs 3.6 for Williams I believe), but I think that to extrapolate that and consider that to be remotely how large of a difference there is in their talents as runners is foolish, considering Williams got the bulk of his carries facing 8-man boxes with Brent Hundley at QB while Jones got his 5.5 YPC in half the carries and half or more of those carries were attached to Rodgers. It's just not comparable. Jones has a role to play and I'm excited for his return. He's gonna rip off some big runs and the Packers faithful will be begging McCarthy to stop sending plodding Williams out there. But those of us with an understanding of football that extends beyond "yards" or the slightly more complicated "yards per carry" know better.
  4. Fortunately he's got Rodgers there to nudge him when he's about to do something TOO idiotic.
  5. Plus, Packers are going to run a lot of delayed handoffs and screen passes to try to mitigate the pressure on Rodgers. Williams may not get 100 on the ground but I think he breaks 100 yards total, with 5-8 rec included.
  6. Statements like this without a shred of statistical evidence or reasoning behind them don't contribute much to the conversation outside of showing your ignorance towards what the Packers' coaching staff values in a RB, and what the skill sets of these two RBs are.
  7. I honestly think it has to do mostly with running style. Aaron Jones is quicker and more agile and when he plays, certainly appears quite a bit faster. He also averaged almost 2 YPC more than Williams last year (a lot of that due to long runs, but that's part of his game). With that said, Jones' success largely came while Rodgers was healthy, while Williams carried the load with Hundley under center. Jones' running style is more fun to watch, and he was more successful per carry last year -- that's why Williams is getting no love.
  8. Disagree with just about everything except the last sentence. If by RBBC you mean it won't be a Todd Gurley/Ezekiel Elliott/David Johnson situation, then you're right. A healthy Jones probably gets between 5-10 carries a game (closer to 5, I'd wager, unless he tears a big one on one of his early carries). TyMont, I don't know what to think. I've heard him spoken of as a 3rd-down back but he may be worse than Jones at pass blocking (he was drafted as a WR, after all). Not sure if this was a typo or not, but Jones "smash[ing] between the tackles" is quite the opposite of his running style -- he uses his burst and speed to either find cutback lanes or bounce outside. Williams is the interior grinder. The Packers have never once modeled their backfield after the Patriots'. I'll wait patiently while you come up with a single Packers RB who can be compared in any way to James White in the way he's been used. You're gonna have a hard time finding one. When the Packers have a RB who they believe can be a 3-down workhorse, McCarthy has shown that he will play that RB like one. Eddie Lacy is the most recent example, but James Starks during the SB run, Ryan Grant before that, and Ahman Green before that (McCarthy's first year was Green's last as a full-time starter). The problem is they haven't had RBs who possess 3-down talent since Lacy, and he was used as such until his last year when he was overweight and split time with Starks. Williams isn't gonna be on the field 90% of the time like Le'Veon (or maybe I need a better example...) but there's nothing in McCarthy's history to indicate that if Williams possesses the 3-down talent that I believe he does (and I think McCarthy does as well), he won't be utilized as such. New England Patriots RBBC as a model...where the hell did you come up with that.
  9. Agreed. On top of that, the Packers' LT Bakhtiari was PFF's top-graded pass-blocking LT last year, so for the most part, you can leave him on an island against whoever and feel okay about it (Mack vs. Bakhtiari will be a fun matchup to watch). Packers also have Marcedes Lewis, their best-blocking TE in ages, to aid when Rodgers sees a blitz coming or just on long dropbacks in general. I still think my opinion as stated in my long previous post holds weight, and if the Packers' running game starts off slow, then I'd treat it as a buy-low opportunity for Williams more than anything else.
  10. I'm sure the Packers coaching staff is well aware of their opening schedule and the difficulties it will present both rushing and passing the ball. I tend to be of the opinion that while a fantasy owner may be inclined to throw in the towel (or sell low) on Williams after two bad weeks (if they are indeed bad weeks), a coaching staff can contextualize results to a far better degree.
  11. Packers fan here -- much of my Packers prognostication turns out to be wrong (or, at least, if correct, it takes some time to reveal it as such), but I think the threat of Aaron Jones making Jamaal Williams unstartable or at best a flex play is misguided. I'll try to keep this short: training camp is chock-full of coachspeak that means little to nothing. Mike McCarthy is not immune to this, but he is among the coaches who is least likely to heap praise on an undeserving player, and he'll even occasionally call out underperformers through the media. Aaron Rodgers fits this mold as well: when there's someone he sees performing at a high level, he lets the media know; when he sees players underperforming, he also (usually subtly) lets the media know as well. Brief examples: following Davante Adams' rookie year (mostly uneventful outside of a few big games late in the year as he spent the season as the #3 WR behind Jordy and Cobb), McCarthy called Adams the "MVP...[of the offseason]" and, from the linked article: Of course, in 2015 Jordy Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason and the Adams hype-train took off, only to be derailed by a Week 1 ankle injury that hounded him all year, particularly brutal for a WR whose defining quality is his elite release skills from the LOS. He played at well less than 100% (limping off the field not uncommonly to get re-taped up), his ability to create separation suffered, he'd be inhuman if his confidence didn't waver, which directly or indirectly resulted in a lot of dropped passes, and many Packers fans and probably a good deal of analysts as well were ready to write him off as a bust already without taking these factors into account. Well, healthy Davante has had no problems with drops and has delivered on every ounce of promise, albeit more than a year later than hoped, that Rodgers and McCarthy saw in him. The only other "offseason MVP" McCarthy has publicly declared was DT Kenny Clark following his rookie season in 2016. Clark went on to finish 2017 as a top-10 DT (based on PFF) and one of five interior DL to finish top-21 in both run-stopping and pass-rushing (per PFF again). [Sidebar: I'm sure there are some quotes someone can dig up about McCarthy complimenting Brett Hundley and we can see how that turned out, though I personally don't believe we've heard the last of Hundley as a productive NFL QB...no doubt he performed worse than the Packers' coaching staff and I expected him to, and had more downs than ups (needing OT to beat the Browns and getting shut out by the Ravens and Vikings to name a few) but also showed some undeniable flashes (nearly beating the Steelers, showing the ability to perform in the clutch with his game-winning pass in OT against (sigh) the Browns, to name a couple) -- in short, considering some of the defenses he faced (7 of his 10 games where he got appreciable playing time were against top-10 defenses), an uneven performance like what he displayed in his first extended time as a starter isn't a death knell for his career; ask Goff, Peyton Manning, Marino, and many other. OK that was too long of a sidebar -- Hundley will be back, is my point, and it just might be as a starter somewhere.] The offseason has a lot of coachspeak, of course. And it's a lot more productive to listen to a coach speaking negatively about a player than it is to hear them say "best shape of their life" and other coaching platitudes. With that said, Mike McCarthy (and Aaron Rodgers) are generally much less susceptible to "coachspeak" or complimenting the play/development of players who are undeserving of it (e.g. Rodgers basically throwing shade at the three WRs the Packers drafted with how glowingly he complimented Jake Kumerow (and how he flat out mentioned the rookie WRs need to look at Kumerow to see how they need to perform in practice if they want to gain his trust, without which they will not succeed in the NFL). Back to coachspeak: you'll be hard-pressed to find a player McCarthy has been more vocally complimentary of this offseason than Williams. Quotes like (from here): As a side note, the only two other guys I've heard similar (though less extreme) statements about from McCarthy this offseason have been S Kentrell Brice and (***fantasy relevant***) Jimmy Graham (Rodgers has also been vocally complimentary of Graham; I can't recall to what extent this contrasts his public statements on Martellus Bennett last year or Jared Cook the year before (though Cook performed when healthy; and if you ask Bennett, he wasn't healthy the entire season) -- and Rodgers has notably been critical of the trio of WRs the Packers drafted (though complimentary of Geronimo Allison) so he too is not one to dish out compliments when he doesn't feel they're deserved). So back to Jamaal Williams. As you're probably aware, he's far-and-away the best pass-blocking RB on the Packers' roster -- completely different ballpark than Jones or TyMont. Fifth-best in the NFL, as a rookie, last year, according to SIS. I mean, just look at this identification and execution of a difficult block of a free blitzer coming from as far from where he's lined up as possible. And believe me, you cannot underestimate how important pass-blocking is to a team that: A) has very recently seen what happens when their QB gets injured, and will prioritize players/schemes to prevent that as much as possible in the future, and B) runs a complex offense that has lost some key veteran offensive line cogs in the past few seasons (Lang and Sitton) whose continuity (along with the rest of the O-line) is an undeniable advantage in pass protection effectiveness. So there's reason to believe Williams is the preferable RB for the Packers to have in the game on 3rd-down passing situations (if they have a RB on the field -- can split TyMont wide, or keep Marcedes Lewis in to block if they're finding their O-line giving up a lot of pressure). Two more final thoughts: 1. I think Williams' skills as a RB are dramatically underrated. When you watch Aaron Jones, he seems to "pop" -- shot out of a cannon, some would describe it; more "explosive," certainly. Reminds me of Christine Michael during his brief time with the Packers (haven't watched a lot of him elsewhere) -- goes from 0 to 60 by the time he's got the ball, but seems to lack the vision to be a successful NFL RB. I love what Jones offers as a change of pace due to that "thunder and lightning" element he offers along with Williams. But a recent podcast I heard talked about Jordan Howard and why he's been so successful despite lacking the breakaway speed or, at least to my knowledge, freakish athleticism that gives him the elusiveness of guys like Kareem Hunt (or Jamaal Charles in his prime). The analyst on the podcast talked about how Howard knows how to run in traffic -- surrounded by bodies, some of whom are your teammates, most of whom aren't, but knowing how to move your body in relation to these other massive bodies (subconsciously predicting THEIR movements, while simultaneously physically breaking imperfect tackle attempts, etc.). I don't know if "vision" is the right word because that implies identification of cutback lanes (which a RB can also possess, but is not exactly what I'm talking about), nor is necessarily "patience" -- "feel" seems like a more accurate word. Essentially, Howard can get 3, 4, 5 yards per carry nearly at will due to his skills in this "feel" attribute, and I think Williams possesses it as well. Of course, an open running lane doesn't prevent him from getting a whole lot more than 3-5 yards, but (without looking up the stats and just going by intuition here) I feel like Howard is a guy who doesn't run for negative yardage all that often, and I think Williams shares this "feel" attribute of Howard's running style (though he's got more going for him than just that). (Side note: Williams and Howard have identical 40 times: 4.59 sec). I love Aaron Jones and think he plays a role in this offense when he comes back (I'm more skeptical of TyMont -- I think he's going to be more of a hybrid RB/WR this year than true RB, but that's pure speculation). 2. And one final thing: back when the Packers were producing single fantasy-relevant RBs (essentially one or two years of Lacy), remember what was a HUGE part of their game? Here's a hint. TL;DR: Draft Jamaal Williams and don't worry about him -- he's gonna crush it unless he gets injured.