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  1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Seems like we are all on the same page.
  2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Probably all true. What I was really getting at is that all of us, even Vlads most vocal detractor think the kid is going to be a very good player. I do think it gets to be splitting hairs a little bit with prospects and exactly where you rank them. Just too many unknowns, even this season. Where you go get Vlad is going to be a matter of personal style and risk aversion but we all seem to agree this is a high floor, high upside prospect despite all the criticisms levied here. I hear daynlokis focus on Vlads flaws and baseline hear that he's saying Vlads a likely bust, so I wanted to clarify that he didn't feel too dissimilarly. Knowing if he's your boy ya need to go get him with your 1st and if hes still there for you in the third hes pretty good value if really my take away here,
  3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    I just rolled with a quick look at fantasypros.com which is supposedly consensus rankings. I get it could vary.
  4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    That is more than fair and I appreciate that. I think it's important to know essentially where you value him to understand exactly how the criticisms change that vs other posters. Consensus has him right around 20, so you are at a pretty slight devaluation compared to what I expected. FWIW, I'm right there with ya in the 25 to 30ish range.
  5. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Dude. It's a simple question. Full start up dynasty, standard scoring. Where do you rank him? As his most vocal in thread critic, I think it's fair to show us exactly how much you are devaluing him vs the norm. All the warnings and flaws pointed out are great, but I want to know how that changes where you would rank him.
  6. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Exactly my point.
  7. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    But, nail it down for me and commit. Where do you take him?
  8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Of course positions matter, and if you are projecting Vlad as a DH only from the jump I get your point but strongly disagree. If you are telling me you are changing Vlads valuation now, based on the likelihood he will be playing 1st base by 2022, thats fine...but how much are you devaluing him based on that. Give me your dynasty league pick number +/- 5 or so that you think makes sense for Vlad. That will help me compare how I see him vs how you see him value wise.
  9. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Valid source. Hmmm. If any part of those weights are accurate my eyeballs are certainly deceiving me. Can't buy it, but score one for ya there. I still don't get the Arenado, Ortiz comps.
  10. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    I don't understand the comps to Arenado and Ortiz at all. Ortiz is 3 inches taller, 60 lbs heavier and never played 3B at the major league level. Offensive profile maybe but at 19/20 he was a very different hitter than Vlad. Arenado...I just don't get that one from any angle. I'm not sure where Vlad weighing 240 comes from either. Dude is listed at 200, admits he's a little heavier than that, but he's not close to 240. 215 I can buy 220, maybe. But David Ortiz he aint. I still see Miggy as his best comp both from a positional arc and from a ceiling offensively.
  11. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Right? Obviously, time will tell if the hitting comp is even close to accurate, but the positional comp of Miguel Cabrera sems pretty close. Essentially in making the decision of when to pull the trigger on Vlad, you are making the decision on when to pull the trigger on a possible Miggy. You just need to decide how likely you think that possibility is and value him accordingly. The positional arc will work itself out, but it wouldn't change a thing about my valuation now.
  12. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Again, the question I have with this discussion about what might happen to Vlad 2 to 5 years down the road is how does it change your valuation of him for fantasy drafts today? In dynasty leagues, I don't think you can move him off whatever spot you've currently got him. If you are moving him down, where are you dropping him to? In redraft leagues, it doesn't matter, right? I just see so many moving parts to try to project that its futile to devalue him in fantasy today based on glove/body in the future. Who could the Jays sign, how will Vlad develop, how will other Jays prospects develop, who will get hurt, what trades could arise...what if climate change affects the Toronto stadium HR numbers? If you can accurately project all that, number one you should be spending your time on things other than a fantasy message board, but number two, you can't. All the questions are valid real world baseball concerns, but they seem like absolute white noise in the fantasy valuation of Vlad.
  13. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

    Yes. I guess the question could be asked how much his conditioning affected the neck injury, but it wasn't a direct correlation. With Vlad and the conditioning issue, obviously it could cause problems. No doubt. However, I am just not enough of a fortune teller, and don't know Vlad personally, for me to project how weight will effect him 4,6, 10 years down the road. For fantasy purposes, I really don't care either. If I can hit on a prospect that gives me 5 to 8 good years, well that's a win for me even if he moves off 3B at some point in there. The build/conditioing thing should and is a realistic concern for the Jays and they will have to manage it. For fantasy, I just don't care. Too far down the road to predict or change value now.
  14. Carlos Martinez 2019 Outlook

    Really hoping the guy is healthy as he's one of my favorite guys to watch throw. Im no pitching guru but a couple of the guys I follow that consider themselves experts really worry about his mechanics. Lat injuries often lead to elbow injuries due to compensatory changes in the motion ala Reyes last year. Even if he's not currently injured, I'm out on him unless he falls to an insane value. The risk of a swing role in combination with injury concern just make him too risky for me.
  15. Garrett Hampson 2019 Outlook

    I trust Hampson's skillset, I dont trust the Rockies to utilize it well. Between his bat and Coors, Id be all in on him if it wasn't for the manager and organization. Still a strong target for me in dynasty leagues, but redraft, not sure I could pull the trigger in the top 150 or so.