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About andypro77

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  1. Yes. I find it hysterical how all of these Damien Williams truthers just outright dismiss Carlos Hyde. I'd bet a million dollars that not one of them would have suggested, at ANY time in the past 5 years up until about week 14 last season, that they thought Damien Williams was a better RB than Carlos Hyde. So a few good games in an absolutely perfect situation somehow changes that analysis? Even if we accept the fact that Williams is a better receiver (even though his high in receptions is 23 while Hyde's is 59), it very unlikely that he's a better runner than Hyde, and that's very unlikely to go unnoticed during training camp by Andy Reid. I'll admit that there's a chance that all the stars align and Williams gives you a full KC lead back season, but at his current ADP, he's #1 on my list of potential season ruiners.
  2. His FF Calc ADP last year was 1.07, in late August to early September drafts. In my four-draft league, he went 6th, 7th, 7th, and 8th. And we're located in Central Pa, so there actually should be a slight bias in his favor.
  3. Nope, total redraft every season, with a random draft order that has nothing to do with the previous year's finish. I currently run a 56 team league with four 14 team separate leagues. Once again, total redraft with no trades. Last season, the 4 league champs picked 9th, 7th, 11th, and 1st. In 2017 the league champs picked 10th, 3rd, and 4th. In 2016 it was 9th, 9th, and 6th. This league has only been in existence since 2016, and only went to 4 leagues last season. But my old one was 10 years and 4 different conferences a year, and I found zero correlation between draft position and finish. It just doesn't matter. I know it's counter-intuitive, but it's true. I was in two different drafts last season, and I was randomly assigned the #2 pick in one of them and the #13 in the other. With the #2 pick I took Bell, and with the #13 pick in the other I took Hopkins. Think about it, Barkley and CMC were the top two scoring RBs last season, and neither was going at the top of the 1st round. Guys like Hopkins and Julio weren't either. Kelce, Ertz, James White, Connor, Mixon, Woods, Diggs could have mostly been picked from any position, and of course any team could have drafted Mahomes no matter what 1st round pick they were assigned. And yes, if Barkley and Zeke have absolutely historical seasons from the very top of the draft this year, it might skew the results for this season, but over time it just doesn't matter. I used to live and die by what draft position I got, now I don't really care, because the data has convinced me that it doesn't matter.
  4. I think you're confusing best-ball with draft and hold. In a best-ball league you can still do pickups, trades, etc just like any other league. What skill? Deciding who to start between two very close options? That comes down mostly to luck anyway. It's not less skill, it's a different kind of skill. The fact is, if a typical league has 15 man rosters, you can just blow off the last few rosters spots, particularly after bye weeks are over. In best-ball, every single roster spots counts or potentially counts, and there's skill in caring for each one, more so than in a regular league. Likewise, trade throw-ins are much easier in regular leagues. In best-ball, you can't just offer dead weight in a trade because the other owner doesn't want the dead roster spot. In regular, a dead roster spot isn't as big of a deal. Admittedly, it's easier not having to choose exactly who to start each week. But also, you'd have to admit, it's easier not having to care about every one of your roster spots too. Not less skill, different skill.
  5. I find it to be just the opposite. It just gives me more guys to watch. Uh, no you didn't. Unless you have a bunch more good players, both Elliot and Hines count for you. It's not complete luck, you had that guy on your roster. And it's no more complete luck than having to decide between Golden Tate and Dante Pettis as your 3rd WR and one of them scores and the other doesn't. And I know the response would be that you have to do your homework and check their matchups that particular week, but anyone who's played fantasy football for any length of time knows you can play the exact right matchup on a coin flip lineup decision and it turns out the other guy scores instead about half the time.
  6. I've been running leagues for over 30 years now, I'll turn 55 in a few months. So YOU get off MY lawn!
  7. I go the other way, I say stay at #12. Let's say there are about 15 players who are '1st rounders'. That is, a guy who you can see being the best player on your team. If you stay at #12, you get two of them. If you move to #6, you only get one. Sure, you definitely get a good player at pick #19, but you don't get a 1st round type guy. Right now the FF Calc ADP has Thomas, Julio, OBJ at 12 - 14, and you'd get two of them. (or even JuJu or Mixon). 17-20 is Kelce, Cook, AB, and Chubb. Yea, good players, but a slight notch below. Now, you could end up winning in this scenario if Saquon, Zeke, Kamara, CMC, or falls to 6, but that probably won't happen. I might make the switch for a top 4 pick, but not top 6. By the way, I ran a 12 team redraft for 10 years (it was draft and hold, no trades), and I studied draft position vs. points. I came to the conclusion that it doesn't matter where you pick, there's no clear advantage overall. I think the highest ranked number was pick 8, but it was only slightly better than several others. The point, it probably doesn't matter all that much, and a lot of it is personal preference. I'd take players 12 and 13 over players 6 and 19, but it's probably a wash, so do what makes you feel good.
  8. I've seen a few pieces and videos on Campbell, and one of the common threads was that no one commenting knew why he didn't go deep more often. Another common point is that they're not totally sure about his ability to track deep balls, and that he does bobble the ball at times even when he's wide open. If that's so, as a Colts' fan, I can tell you he'll fit right in.
  9. I'm on deck in my half-dynasty league. That means you can keep players forever, but you can only keep 7. We do it that way so that draft is interesting and there's some veteran talent in it. Also, anyone picked up can NOT be kept, so waiver finds go back into the draft the next season. 14 team, full PPR. It's also a best-ball league. I have pick 1.08 and I'm trying to decide between Kupp, Fuller, and Boyd, so tell me who I should pick and why. (right now we're on pick 1.07, so at least two of these 3 will be there). It's almost definitely going to be a WR, because I already have Le'Veon, A Jones, Michel, and Cohen, and all the good RBs were taken with the first 6 picks (Jacobs, Montgomery, Damien, Penny, Lindsay, Sanders). The rest of my team is Goff, Cooper, DJ Moore, and Corey Davis. I'm leaning towards Kupp, and then Fuller over Boyd because best-ball sort of rewards boom-or-bust players slightly over solid guys. So, make the case, who should I pick?