JakeSarna

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Everything posted by JakeSarna

  1. Nice little writeup from BA a couple days ago, behind paywall unless you get 5 free viewings which mine for some unknown reason keeps resetting everyday if I use my chrome browser on my phone. Anyways, they talk about him not just being a monster but some say he's the greatest prospect they've ever seen. Some serious praise there. Wander and Julio are this years Acuna and Soto. Notes From The Coast: Julio Rodriguez Becomes A 'Monster' https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/notes-from-the-coast-julio-rodriguez-becomes-a-monster/
  2. Ms GM Dipoto is feeling the heat big time. And he's seen many of his counterparts get canned mid rebuild only to see it successful but it was too late and they were already fired. Because Dipoto is feeling like time is running out for him (which is crazy because of how amazing he's done stockpiling elite talent) ... you're seeing their big names being super fast tracked like Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic, who I have no doubt will both be up in the majors at some point next year barring injuries or colossal collapses (along with Evan White, Justin Dunn, Kyle Lewis, Ljay Newsome and Jake Fraley). And next year you'll see Julio Rodriguez, George Kirby and Noelvi Marte on the super fast track too. Now while I'm a fan of moving elite prospects fast if they aren't being challenged. Desperate GMs can really hurt the much needed development of young prospects if they're not careful. Jarred Kelenic is my favorite hitting prospect in baseball right now. Im also expecting Julio Rodriguez to completely breakout next year and hes looking like a monster in the making. Im also a huge fan of Noelvi Marte. George Kirby is my favorite pitcher from the 19 draft. I see so many similarities between him and Logan Gilbert (who Just happened to be my favorite pitcher from 18 draft along with Daniel Lynch). Dipoto has done an absolutely incredible Job drafting and trading for prospects(Kelenic/Dunn/Fraley/Sheffield). He's gonna make damn sure he survives long enough to see them up which the Mariners will become one of the most exciting young teams in baseball.
  3. Exactly Brock. Its easy to forget he's only 20 years old. He's 6 years younger then the average age of triple a players. That's huge. He actually shows pretty good command of his pitches (hits the spots hes supposed to from what i hear). Its his control that he struggles with and thats completely understandable as he's a pitcher that relies on his insane spin rate (on both his FB and CB). SPs with elite spin rates have a tendency to take longer developing their control. One major thing Garcia has going for him is that he's supposedly extremely athletic and Yankees pitching coaches have said they aren't concerned about the development of his control. They are concerned as to whether he can ever carry a starters workload. He broke thru the 100 inning benchmark this season which is encouraging. Hopefully next season he can go 150-160 innings before being shutdown (although they most likely will manage his innings without needing to be shutdown). Im guessing the shackles will come off in 2021 and we'll really be able to gauge if he can go deep into starts and throw 180-200+ innings yearly. Marcus Stroman has proved he can do it but it's rare for sub 5'9 starters to do it. I really want to see him achieve it and I'm starting to believe it will happen. But Im sure most bet (and that would be the smart bet) that he ends up a reliever in the end.
  4. As im sure you know Kelenic is a notorious slow starter. When he starts the regular seasons, comes back from an injury and now after promotions (last year promoted from GCL to Kingsport...this year from WV to Modesto). But after his struggles he catches on and starts killing it. So deff expecting a brief struggle transitioning to AA...Kelenic will be dominating in no time.
  5. Well the PCL was always considered the most hitter friendly league in the minors (Well when high desert and Bakersfield were still around, the Cal was seen as the most hitter friendly). So add the juiced up ball into the PCL and you're gonna have some serious runs put on. But the International league was never really considered an extreme hitters league but this year the entire AAA has become a bloodbath for starting pitchers. I also wondered why the AAA ball seems much more juiced then the MLB this year, when it's supposed to be the exact same as the MLB ball. Besides Zac Gallen who straight up dominated AAA this year with an insane 1.77 ERA in 91 innings, I haven't seen any other starting pitchers dominate. The second best ERA in AAA is Despaigne at 3.55 ERA but hes only pitched 41 innings. Mitch Keller has the 3rd best at 3.56 ERA in 103 Innings. Im not usually a fan of ERA as a standalone stat but its perfect to illustrate my example and shows just how tough AAA is this year. Every single SP in AAA this year, besides Gallen, has a higher ERA of 3.55. Last year there were 9 SPs with their ERAs in the 2's. And a total of (17?) with below a 3.55 ERA. The juiced ball has absolutely wreaked havoc on AAA this year. And while Deivi Garcia has finally been challenged for the first time in his MiLB career, I have to keep reminding myself that he's a 20 year old in AAA. Since Deivi Garcia arrived in full season ball he has always had his FIP & XFIP in the 1s and 2s (showing how great he really has been). But all of a sudden in the 5's and 6's in AAA. AAA stats (basic and advanced) are all extremely skewed. I cannot understand why the ball does not seem as juiced in the majors as it does in AAA but every front office knows that a pitcher struggling in AAA this year should come with an asterisk. I really hope they go back to the original ball next season or else you're gonna see AAA being skipped more often for pitchers because It's gotta be confidence shattering and will lead to young pitchers trying to change up everything they've done up to that point which will cause even more issues for when they do get up to the majors.
  6. 18 year olds in their first full session tend to tire out. Look at Triston Casas. He's got huge raw power and very fast bat speed. As the hot summer July has come to an end, his swing has become lethargic. It happens to most 18-19 year Olds in their 1st seasons. All the more reason what Wander Franco is doing is just incredible. But like most young people too, a 2nd or 3rd wind usually kicks in and start hitting better again. Pete Alonso last year mentioned how fatigued he got a little after the all star break. Obviously everyones conditioning is different but it's totally understandable seeing 18 year olds tire out in a long season they aren't used to.
  7. He would deff be a monster bat against right handed pitching in the majors. Has always be a righty killer. Struggles to consistently hit lefties his minor league career. Love that power tho...it is no doubt mlb in game power legit.
  8. yeah they've been awful. Don't forget about HoF Mike Mussina tho. Also I remember watching their 2009 draft pick pitcher Matt Hobgood pitch at Norco high school. He was very good and had potential. He was a 6'4 beast who had 3 plus pitches and could command all of them. He probably had the best curve in that draft. They started him in the rk league at Bluefield. They immediately changed (completely) his mechanics without even letting him get some early success to build his confidence. By the time he got to full season ball, everyone of his pitches were below average and could never get over it. His confidence was smashed to pieces. I don't believe he would have ever been as good as his draft hype but he barely got to AA. The Orioles destroyed every pitcher they touched.
  9. Heres his latest scouting report i found on MLB pipeline. It has his pitching grades but i believe hiura fastball and changeup actually grade higher currently and still have room for growth in his future projection. Scouting grades: Fastball: 45 | Curveball: 45 | Slider: 40 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45 Under general manager A.J. Preller, the Padres have had success with mid-to-late round pitchers. Cantillo might be the latest steal. A 16th-round selection from Kailua High School in Hawaii, the left-hander was one of the youngest players in the 2017 Draft. He signed for fifth-round value at $302,500, and it's been money well spent for the Padres, who pried him from his Kentucky commitment. As an 18-year-old in rookie ball in 2018, Cantillo struck out 58 hitters over 45 1/3 innings while notching a 2.18 ERA. He finished the year with a singular start at Class A Fort Wayne, and he opened the '19 campaign there, where he continued to post excellent strikeout numbers while limiting baserunners. A 6-foot-4 lefty with an athletic frame, Cantillo's frame has projection. His delivery is somewhat quirky, but he repeats it easily, and he's honed his mechanics nicely since his arrival in pro ball. Cantillo's fastball sits around 90 mph with movement, and his changeup is an excellent complement. He'll need to improve his command of his breaking pitches, however.
  10. low 90s. the last few starts I saw on Twitter that he was sitting between 91-93mph. But he gets a lot of tailing action on his fastball which plays it up. He's 19 and has a nice frame. I could see him adding 2-3 mph more to his FB in the next couple of years as he fills out and gets stronger (but that is not a given). As with all young pitchers, Cantillo is gonna have to improve his 3rd pitch. He has a 4 pitch mix but his curveball and slider are both below average. Like I mentioned before, the development of his cutter is gonna be huge.
  11. While he has some delivery concerns, Law also talks up Garcia’s deception, which bodes well for a future in the rotation. As for seeing him in the Bronx this summer, I think it’s possible. A September call-up seems more likely, though. While moving aggressively, he isn’t exactly on the 2015 Luis Severino fast track. That year saw Severino make eight starts in Double-A before moving up to Scranton, then he earned a call-up in August after 11 starts with the RailRiders. Garcia has four starts in Tampa under his belt, and just finished his ninth game for Trenton. It’s possible the Yankees skip Scranton entirely—they did that with Jonathan Loaisiga—but a promotion to Triple-A and a call up in September feels like the most logical progression. I think DG will be up at some point this season but it may not be until rosters expand. My only concern is how many innings he has pitched so far and how many they will let him pitch the rest of the way. Someone posted above he threw 74 last year and he’s at 64 so far this year. Are they going to let him throw 120? Oh man I really hope they can get him to 120 innings this season. I deff would not mind seeing him pitching in relief by September. With the focus on him being a full time starter next year. I do not want to see him being moved around from relief to starting to relief to starting. They need to have 1 goal in mind with Deivi Garcia, get him to 120 innings this season. So they could have him pitching between 160-180 innings next year. Then by his 2nd full season they could unleash the full Garcia. We have no idea how he holds up on a starters workload. He may not be able to maintain his elite stuff deep into a season when pitching on starters innings. Thats why the main goal needs to be get him to 120 innings this season.
  12. throws a 4 seam (with a very nice spin rate which leads to allot of tail action on it), changeup (2nd best pitch which has him making low a hitters look silly), Curveball and slider. He also throws a cutter but has been mostly focusing on the first 4 pitches mentioned above. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets rid of his slider all together and focuses on developing his cutter more.
  13. I forgot to add my point that Cabrera needing a quality 3rd pitch (and consistent control) has always been a question mark with him. His changeup this year has improved a lot and its toned down questions about whether he can make it as a starter. We'll see how his changeup (and control/command) fares now that he's in the upper levels. But Cabrera does not need a 4th pitch to make it as a starter.
  14. Usually a MLB starting SP needs to atleast have 3 average pitches. When a pitching prospect is unable to develop a quality 3rd pitch, they usually end up in relief (there are some pitchers that have been able to have success as a starter with only 2 pitches but not often and it usually catches up to them). Obviously there are also pitchers that end up in the BP with more then 2 pitches. Plus other factors like control come into play. The difference between 3 and 4 pitches does not necessarily matter when it come to starting. And some pitchers with 3 plus pitches doesn't necessarily mean they'll be better off with 4 pitches. The 4th pitch obviously comes in handy when giving the batter just another pitch to think about.
  15. he didn't have 1 hit allowed, he had a no hitter thru 5ip along with 9k and 2 walks (19 swinging strikes in 5 innings/Had 27 swinging strikes thru 6 innings last start). Was pulled after the 5th at 96 pitches. Acevedo still has the no hitter going in the 6th.
  16. he's pitching on Monday the 24th
  17. just got his 15th strikeout. this next batter is probably going to be his last out (2 outs in the 6th as he up to 97 pitches) finished for the night at 15 ks. He got 25 swinging strikes on 98 pitches
  18. In love with Casas. He's been available in my league all season so far and I was hoping I could hold off picking him up but have to do it now before it's too late. Has Gallo type 80 grade raw power & 80 grade future in-game power. But Gallo hit 40 HRs in his age 19 season (38 in LoA). Cannot compare the 2 yet but Gallo did have an insane 40% SwStr% in LoA. Casas has a very manageable 14% SwStr% as a 19 year old power hitting CI in his 1st full season. I actually believe Casas will have really good plate discipline as he develops. He's still has trouble with breaking balls but as he gets better reading and hitting them, his walks will go up and Ks will go down. Casas has a chance to be very special. Really excited about him.
  19. surprised no one mentioned 17 year old Noelvi Marte. Kid has all tools to be a 5 tool monster. Like other posters mentioned Julio Rodriguez has it too. it wouldn't surprise me If Julio Rodriguez was a top 5 prospect before 2021 season.
  20. Gilbert is more of a gurantee to be a starter with his advanced 4 pitch arsenal and plus control. I believe he'll be pitching in the majors sometime next season and has a chance to be elite. This season Cabreras changeup (3rd pitch) has improved a lot, which improves his chances of remaining a starter and hopefully hitting his ceiling. He looks legit tho this year. Garcia, who I LOVE his stuff, is gonna have to prove he can actually maintain a starters workload at his size (5'9). He still hasn't proved he can pitch deep into games and has never pitched more then 74 innings in a season.
  21. ^ good catch. thanks for clearing up the confusion. now i get why i don't remember seeing any CBs last season, it was SLs or slurves the whole time. those sweeping curves sometimes confuse me for SL.
  22. Yeah he really was awful. And even tho his stuff was the worst it's been all season, his still struck out 6 batters in 2.2 innings. Not to make excuses but the wind was swirling and the weather was awful. Im at my parents in New Jersey about 10 miles away from arm & hammer park and the wind was so bad all day that there were a couple tornado warnings put out (which is bizarre for NJ). I know it doesn't look good since the opposing pitcher seemed to be unaffected but a pitcher like Deivi Garcia that utilizes ridiculous spin rates on his FB and CB would possibly be more effected by the swirling wind. but it most likely was due to him just having a bad pitching day. He just turned 20 and is in AA. like you said, Had to show he's human at some point.
  23. im crazy about this kid. Caught a couple starts from him last season. Remember loving the tail on his high 90s FB. He also threw a nasty slider. The reports on his curveball already being a wipeout pitch along with the vast improvements regarding his command and control make him a must add (I for some reason don't remember seeing his Curveball last year but the reports on it being wipeout gets me excited). He's always had a very high ceiling but the big 'questions' have always been, can he develop atleast an average 3rd pitch? and can he control and command his elite high 90s FB thats always had wicked movement. He also gets a ton of swinging strikes. Really Wish the minors kept pitch tfx stats. Would love to know his o-swing/z-sing percentages. He gave up a lot of HRs last year (I believe 11 HR in 100 innings). Really great to see him limiting HRs so far this season (1 HR in 41 innings). He's got the perfect height and athletic build. Plus I wrote down after that 2nd start i watched him in last season that while his CH was below average, he had great arm action on it, (seemed to repeat his delivery on all his pitches) along with having nice depth and heaviness on his CH. Plus MPH differential between his 4 seam and CH is never going to be an issue. I really want to see a start of his this season. Im expecting(hoping) him to be promoted shortly. The development of him and Jordan Holloway looks to be legit. And both have top of the rotation upside. Holloway more of a legit #2 top of the rotation. Cabrera tho, with his absolutely filthy-nasty stuff and from what im hearing now, 4 pitch arsenal (FB/CB/SL/CH) and 3 of them plus (FB/CB/SL) and the potential to have a good changeup. He has the upside to be a legit #1 SP.
  24. finished the game 3-4 with 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 walks and 0 Ks
  25. watching the game live on milb.tv and Cron just CRUSHED a monster shot for his 20th HR of season. Currently in the 7th inning he's 2-3 with a HR, 4 RBSis and 2 walks