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ktierne3

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  1. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    No you stated he wouldn't fall that far. Obviously he has in at least some leagues or he wouldn't be slotted where he is. His average pick before the trade was 19 which means at least some people have been drafting him in the late second. His max pick in NFBC is 25. If he falls because of what I would consider an overreaction to this trade then that's some good value.
  2. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    His Yahoo draft position is 22 which is late second round...if he falls a bit then that's early third...
  3. Manny Machado 2019 Outlook

    I think people are slightly exaggerating the hit to his value. Petco was #16 in HR park factors last year and although it is still a pitchers park, it is much much more neutral than it used to be. I think he can still be penciled in for 28-32 dingers which is still great and I can still see him exceeding that. People are talking about how bad the lineup around him is going to be, but he had 48 runs and 65 rbis in 413 PA with the Orioles last year. Assuming his usual 700 PA, that is a pace of 81 runs and 110 rbis whilst being surrounded by the likes of Jonathon Schoop, Adam Jones, and the warmed over corpse of Chris Davis. If anything I have to think that his lineup at San Diego should be equal to or maybe even a little better than what he had to work with during his days with the Orioles. If he falls into the late second or early third I would not hesitate grabbing him.
  4. 2019 Draft Day Targets (Reaches)

    My all reach team: C - Sanchez 1b - Olson 2b - Villar 3b - Matt Chapman SS - Trea Turner OF - Hoskins OF - Puig OF - Conforto SP - Bauer, Taillon, CarMart, Jimmy Nelson RP - LeClerc RP - Hand
  5. Posted this in the sleeper thread and then realized he didn't have a 2019 Outlook. I'm pretty high on Mazara in 2019 given his ADP and will be targeting him in most of my drafts. He has been super consistent, hitting 20 HR for each of the last three seasons, but was on pace to buck that trend until a thumb injury at the All Star break derailed his 2018 season. He is still just twenty three years old, and so I think his floor is 20 HR but he has plenty of room for power upside given his young age. The biggest room for improvement could be his launch angle which was an average of just 8 degrees last year. I think if he can bring that up we could see a big power breakout. Additionally the rangers have hired a new hitting coach Luis Ortiz specifically to "coax" more power out of him. Perhaps part of this might entail raising Mazara's launch angle. https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/02/07/rangers-spring-training-projectsthe-big-adjustment-nomar-mazara-must-make-season Depth Charts likes him for 26/80/91/.271. which I think is reasonable, but I think he is capable of homers in the low thirties. Prior to the thumb injury last season he was on pace for 30 homers so I think that is a reasonable number to shoot for. If his hitting coach is successful with him then there could be room for more.
  6. 2019 Sleepers

    Lots of the sleeper picks on here would be mine too. However if I had to pick just one I'd probably make mine Nomar Mazara. He has been super consistent, hitting 20 HR for each of the last three seasons, but he was on Pace to shatter that trend last season until a thumb injury at the all star break derailed his season. He is still just twenty three years old, and so I think his floor is 20 HR but he has plenty of room for power upside given his young age. The biggest room for improvement could be his launch angle which was an average of just 8 degrees last year. I think if he can bring that up we could see a big power breakout. Additionally the rangers have hired a new hitting coach specifically to "coax" more power out of him. https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/texas-rangers/rangers/2019/02/07/rangers-spring-training-projectsthe-big-adjustment-nomar-mazara-must-make-season I'm planning him for 20 HR, but think he has a good chance to break 30.
  7. Javier Baez 2019 Outlook

    I looked over the rankings again. I would take him in the third. I'd be ok if he came to me in the second but I prefer some of the others like goldy Machado etc. in the second.
  8. Javier Baez 2019 Outlook

    I'd take him if he was going in the 4th round but the 2nd is too much risk for me.
  9. Eddie Rosario 2019 Outlook

    Bump he has me at a loss too
  10. Left/right hitter splits

    Go to the splits tool in fangraphs. Download in Excel. Take the difference between the OPS vs RHP and the OPS vs LHP. Sort descending.
  11. Chris Archer 2019 Outlook

    I always draft him for the K's too, but last season the K's dried up. Without Ks he is really useless. However, there were some positives down the stretch last year. I liked his change up development last season. In fact, Nick Pollack even had an article that both his change and his slider qualified as "money pitches" last season. He seemed to use it more and more as the season went on and that's a big step. Still, as the above poster's article mentioned his fastball is so bad that even the development of a third pitch is only a modest improvement. It's not even that his four seam is pin straight, it's that he has ZERO command. He rarely is able to hit the catcher's location and this creates big issues because when your fastball is pin straight and you can't locate it then it's going to get hammered. I also like the move to Pittsburg. I think he finished the season well and that was a positive sign. I wonder if the coaching staff will work on any largeer changes in his mechanics, approach, etc in the off season. Probably a lot harder to change your mechanics, game plan, etc in the middle of the season on the fly. Maybe he makes some big adjustments and comes back a different guy a'la 2018 Adam Ottavino. I'm buying one last season if the price is right but I think he will still be a little too rich for my blood. There are other upside pitchers after pick 100 who I'd rather have, like CarMart, Pivetta, Jon Gray, etc. I think he'd have to fall to me a bit but someone will still overdraft him based off of name recognition.
  12. 2018-19 Off-Season and Hot Stove Thread

    Arguably the best wrestler in the mlb.
  13. 2019 Draft Strategy

    NFBC 50s. I usually do Yahoo and will do another Yahoo league with my friends but I wanted to try a new one. Never had one without free agent pickups before though. Seems like you might need to draft differently.
  14. 2019 Draft Strategy

    Just did my first nfbc league where rosters are locked from draft day through the entire season. What are your draft strategies in leagues where you can't trade or pickup free agents?
  15. Nick Pivetta 2019 Outlook

    This. I watched so many games last year where the defense let these weak little dribbling balls get through as hits or errors when the inning should have ended. Maybe not the reason for all his troubles but that defense was truly terrible.