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Everything posted by kenag122002

  1. Paul Goldschmidt 2018 Outlook

    Isn't the right answer normally somewhere in the middle? Don't pick him at 3 now with the added risk of losing a good portion of his HR. But if he slides to you at 10 because everyone is afraid, pounce.
  2. OK lets do it. Last 3 years-- 654, 627, 492 PAs.
  3. Luis Severino 2018 Outlook

    Seems like you may be still missing the point. One month is not a large enough sample size to make sweeping conclusions from, especially when you have the full season's data available.
  4. Mike Clevinger 2018 Outlook

    The most glaring comparison point is that Clevinger still has an option left.
  5. Greg Bird 2018 Outlook

    Specifically his .227 AVG is dragged down by a .255 BABIP in a small sample. Looking at 2017, if you use his 40.6% hard hit % and compare to others in that hard hit % range you'll see Domingo Santana with a .363 BABIP, Zimmerman .335, Abreu .330, Cruz .315 If you presume he can pull that BABIP up to standard levels around .320 based on his contact, his AVG should rise accordingly. .260-.270 certain seems reasonable.
  6. Luis Severino 2018 Outlook

    Kluber had a 1.25 WHIP in April and a 2.67 in May (May was just 1 start) Sale had a 1.35 WHIP in Sept Stras had a 1.21 in July and a 1.19 in June Kershaw had a 1.22 WHIP in Sept. Looking at an individual month and determining that it is not elite is not really all that helpful.
  7. Hyperbole was the point. If a value of "greatness" doesn't apply to one of the greatest hitters ever, it's time to reevaluate and ask if it is a valid measure. If you want to look at HR, great, do your analysis there, but comparing ABs seems silly, especially since there are many leagues that use OBP.
  8. Seems a little disingenuous. Barry Bonds didn't reach 530 ABs the last 8 years of his career either. In 2001 he had one of the best fantasy seasons ever, with just 476 AB. What's relevant are the PA, especially in an OBP league.
  9. Fantasy Strategy Thread

    Easier than drafting two Mike Leakes!!
  10. The two-way player issue...

    Fantrax, thank you for the correction
  11. Gregory Polanco 2018 Outlook

    He's averaged 135 over the last 3 years and he's only 26. 110 might be on the extreme low side.
  12. Gregory Polanco 2018 Outlook

    What makes him unique in that way. Every option has a buyer's curse scenario. Why is Polanco "impossible" to draft at value?
  13. The two-way player issue...

    I noticed that fangraphs has a setting titled "Players will always accumulate stats in all scoring category groups" with a description of "If this option is checked, stats will accumulate for players in all scoring category groups, regardless of what position they're set to on their fantasy team. Therefore, pitchers will accumulate all hitting stats that your league tracks, and vice versa, although the latter is of course extremely rare."That's exactly what I was discussing being the best resolution in this thread. Good job Fantrax
  14. Daniel Murphy 2018 Outlook

    Not sure who this refers to but I never said anything about him being a good 3rd selection?? I think you are getting confused.
  15. Daniel Murphy 2018 Outlook

    You were asked for better options though "Please list what those better options are" The intent is what better options in the abstract, not at their ADP.
  16. Daniel Murphy 2018 Outlook

    Comparing players at their ADP is completely different than comparing them straight up.
  17. The two-way player issue...

    I don't think you read the thread if that's the point you took away.
  18. The two-way player issue...

    You missed the part where it will really affect all teams and in the end it really matters very little at all. If you are spending your time trying to calculate how a pitcher will impact your avg, you completely whiffed on how small the impact was and you are wasting your time. And no, everything in football is definitely not a positive, not even close. If Dak Prescott laterals to Zeke Elliott who throws an INT, my RB just got -2 points. If Antonio Brown catches a pass and then fumbles, he gets -1 point. This is not a hard concept, the game of fantasy is about evaluating players and translating their real-world impact into a game where you pick and choose players you like off different teams. The fact that pitchers suck at hitting is a real world thing. No reason it should not be translated over to fantasy.
  19. 2018 Draft Day MUST HAVES and BARGAINS

    ... and then spending the rest of your draft trying to make up for the HRs and RBIs. Really just giving you a hard time, I do understand the mentality, steals are few and far between.
  20. Daniel Murphy 2018 Outlook

    Kinsler over Murphy seems like quite a stretch.
  21. The two-way player issue...

    Choosing pitching or hitting is clunky, it's not realistic long term. It is not a clean solution. There's going to be "problems" with any solution, there's no perfect fit. However it's the solution that actually makes sense. Yes it affects some player values SLIGHTLY, but it is not biased against an individual. It will affect all teams, and all teams can adapt to it. The overall impact is small. I analyzed the final standings in a 15 team mixed. In a league where total roto scores ranged from ~50 to ~125 individual scores changed by a max of 3 points overall (the top team which won by 12 points would have won by 9 points instead). This is very minimal impact. The season totals for 14 full time hitters dwarf the ABs for 9 pitchers (some of which are relievers), such that the pitchers hitting stats just don't matter much. Any rule change can affect the standings and someone COULD complain, but this one actually would make sense and simplify. A QB can score a rushing (or even receiving) touchdown. A pitcher should be able to hit a HR.
  22. The two-way player issue...

    To me it seems like they are all solving this the wrong way. Ohtani is one player, just like Madison Bumgarner is one player. I think the game needs to switch to start including all stats any player accumulates. So if you start Bumgarner and he hits a HR, you get a HR. And if you start Chris Davis at 1B and he comes in during a blowout and pitches an inning, you get those pitching stats. We got too caught up on positions. When your 2B playes SS for the day we don't ignore the stats he accumulates, even though he isn't playing the position you have him at. Football solved this a long time ago - when my QB or WR runs the ball, I still get rushing yards. It's not that complicated. But alas, these systems are archaic and resistant to change (not pointed at any one provider, this is an issue with the game itself being too stuck in the mud).
  23. 2018 Speed Guys

    Good buy low IMO
  24. Luck vs Skill Revisited after 2017

    Hopefully that is a 12 team ONLY league. In a mixed league the luck factor in a small 12 team league is very high. In larger leagues, skill becomes more apparent, as the talent pool available to each team is much smaller.
  25. The two-way player issue...

    Careful -- they are certainly the most flexible and willing to adjust to roto specific issues. They also have, by miles and miles and miles, the absolute worst security (in my opinion).