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cohenstantinople last won the day on July 9

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About cohenstantinople

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  1. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    Couldn’t find the league you mentioned, unless you mean this one from earlier in the week: It’s one of the few 12-team full PPR they’re posting on RotoWire. Here, Guice is 31 overall. More striking is that he’s ahead of Freeman and Gronk, though not entirely shocking he’s ahead of Howard (and Amari Cooper). I’d take these four aforementioned players before Guice in PPR without hesitation. Regardless of whether it’s a $350 league or a $1000, one fact cannot be argued: 11 of these 12 owners will lose.
  2. Brandin Cooks 2018 Season Outlook

    I agree with your insight. And certainly makes sense to guide Goff’s maturity as defenses stuff the box to thwart Gurley. Cooks is no longer receiving passes from Brees, no longer from Brady, but let’s call Goff “ascending” and be optimistic in speculation. Now if Goff takes another 24 shots long this season (1.5 more per game), and Cooks increases his catch rate slightly (by 9%) to nab two-thirds of those shots, those additional 16 passes would bring the 2017 Watkins’ deep threat target count to 86, and receptions to 55. Let’s give these deep shots the benefit of doubt and say they’re 25-yards averaged, all receptions: the total yardage of these receptions (400 yards) and Watkins’ total last season still falls just shy of 1000 yards. Does this seem like a liberal/fair estimation of a ceiling?
  3. D'Onta Foreman 2018 Season Outlook

    While I agree, 100% PUP doesn’t seem accurate—nothing is 100% anything—if I had to choose today, I’d suggest the odds are Foreman starts on PUP (51+%?). I know Crabtree pulled off his recovery in 228 days, DThomas avoided PUP and returned 7 months after surgery. We all know about these cases because they are the exception time-wise, not the norm. But more importantly for the kid’s career—and not fantasy drafts that only matter in fantasy life—both Crabtree and DT represent athletes who’ve torn achilles tendons and returned to professional form. I’m rooting for DForeman, though I don’t consider him a game-changing RB who’ll dominate the Texans offense. I did like him as a complement to Miller, who I see as a better receiver. I see the question being more about quality of return, though certainly PUP or active is huge, too. If the coaches/doctors are even just being cautious with their young back, PUP seems prudent. Can an RB—a position that has totally different stresses than WR—come back to compete professionally? Foreman is young, so it’s not like Arian Foster. But it’s an achilles. Has the surgery been significantly modified in the past 20 years? I know this is just a layman’s script (from Johns Hopkins), but it does offer some insight: During the surgery, an incision is made in the back of the calf. If the tendon is ruptured, the surgeon will stitch the tendon back together. If the tendon is degenerated, the surgeon may remove the damaged part of the tendon and repair the rest of the tendon with stitches. If there is severe damage to a lot of the tendon, the surgeon might replace part or all of your Achilles tendon. This is done with a tendon taken from another place in your foot. I haven’t been able to find out the details of the surgery, and if anyone can, post them. Knowing the severity of the tear in detail, and even more details regarding the operation, would better help to fuel our discussion (though it’s all still guesswork). Certainly if it’s “severe damage” where the surgeon is grafting other tendons from Foreman’s foot to repair the damage, the outlook is bleak. (Is there a ranking beyond bleak?) Until we know more, gotta remain hopeful Foreman is an example of RBs returning to form. And for fantasy purposes, he’s a risk at any single-digit draft price. My opinion.
  4. Alvin Kamara 2018 Season Outlook

    But if Ingram and his solid production didn’t undermine Kamara’s success, can’t see Vereen torpedoing the sophomore. I’m thinking Vereen is the filler COP while Ingram works off his PEDS suspension, then—assuming Vereen doesn’t get hurt before then—Ingram returns and Kamara leads the time share (and Vereen is done). We saw a new Payton last season, a team that started with three upsetting backs and a horrible defense, a team that dumped AP and grew a D and morphed from a pass-first to run-dominant offense. I was surprised. You were. I think even Sean Payton was.
  5. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    Guice? The guy with 471 rushing attempts and 32 receptions? The guy who got dinged up vs Mississippi State last year and had trouble getting back to full capacity and has yet to prove his own NFL durability? Consider college-proven durability in rushing attempts: Hunt 782, Barkley 671, DCook 687 Consider college-proven hands as aptitude for NFL receiving potential: Hunt 73 receptions (3 seasons), Cook 79, Kamara 74 (2 seasons), Barkley 102 While your being a Guice fan is admirable, consider adding more than enthusiasm to the discussion.
  6. Brandin Cooks 2018 Season Outlook

    1100 yards / 8 TDs is a great ceiling for someone with Cooks’ talent. I’ve owned Cooks each year, watched him play, watched the boom/bust from week to weak. Cried with him on the Brees banner day when everyone had wads of points and Cooks had literally zero (the nail in his Saints’ coffin). For my two cents, I’d argue his talent is closer to mediocre than to elite. I respect your opinion. But is rooting for the 1100 / 7.5 this year legit? Will he meet his 3-year average on the Los Angeles Rams based on the offense we saw last season? Consider: Cooks averaged how many receptions over that three-year period? 74? Sammy Watkins—playing in the position Cooks now fills—did not even see 74 targets (in 15 games). Not even with Kupp and Gurley sitting out one game each and Woods missing several. Is it possible Cooks exceeds his ADP as you suggest? I agree with you, if he sees 100 targets, Cooks will make good on his ADP and then some, return great value... but really, 100 targets on this offense? From where? Watkins = 39-of-70 / 593 yards / 8 TDs. If Goff throws the ball 30 more times this season, is it possible all 30 go to Cooks? I see the Rams in ball control, I see Gurley all day long, and I see the continued effectiveness of Kupp and Woods, two PPR values and Goff’s preferences. In standard and Best Ball, I like Cooks for the TDs. Realistically, if Cooks sees 16 more targets than Watkins, one per game, and if Cooks matches his mediocre 2017 catch rate of 57.02%, he’s looking at 49 receptions. That 1100 yard average from the last three seasons does NOT look favorable / attainable.
  7. Derrius Guice 2018 Season Outlook

    If it happened, I’d reckon it would be more about the Giants sucking and less about the Washington offense rushing. Besides, who do you think Guice is, Penny or Sony? I’d suggest even Ballage or RoJo have a shot at out-rushing Guice.
  8. Brandin Cooks 2018 Season Outlook

    I’m the least lazy thinker you know, but I’m skeptical regarding the differences between Watkins’ role and Cooks’. Yes, they’re different players, but both can—and arguably should—be used to stretch the field, netting an occasional deep grab, while Gurley and the PPR duo of Woods/Kupp move the chains. It worked so well, why modify it. Watkins was hardly targeted in comparison, yet targeted enough to keep defenses legit. Why / how will Cooks’ usage be different? True, one might say the money / contract is the difference, but that doesn’t always translate to usage in the trenches. Just because he has the contract, now he’ll be a centerpiece? Not necessarily. The Rams were awesome last season, fun to watch, and they’ll go with what works, again. They’re smart. But the thing that baffles me is why dump a bunch of money on a mediocre talent like Cooks, someone who didn’t integrate well into two other top offenses... Does Cooks have issues? Doesn’t he? Conversely, if they were going with only a field stretcher, Torrey Smith and Wallace were both available (for a lot less). Leads me to believe Cooks will play the Watson role but also see an uptick in targets. Like 80 targets to Kupp’s 100+. Ponza, you’re our local agent. Can’t you start attending practices? I’d better trust you to convince me why Woods is not the best Rams’ WR per ADP if you could log in three or four weeks.
  9. Deshaun Watson 2018 season outlook

    I haven’t heard much about prime bust. Maybe regression from the week after week ceiling show we saw last year, but everyone seems to be on board with big numbers. It’s not like the rushing attack will be moving chains. Seems more like the hubbub concerns his NFL durability, and rightly so.
  10. Tom Brady Season Outlook 2018

    Alkaline diet. He’s like a hybrid, barely needs gas. Numbers will equal last year, +/-
  11. Auction Strategy

    Half your budget on 2 players you like is entirely reasonable. Up to 110 even. (But in 10 team, be careful to save money. 40-50 for your studs is optimal) But be careful to adjust for whatever the bank is: I’ve done two July auctions where the commissioners have allocated more than 200, and it throws off the estimated value / costs.
  12. Zay Jones 2018 outlook

    Biggest thing working for him, assuming the trainer can keep Zay suited up: there are no windows to jump out of once he’s on the field.
  13. Ricky Seals-Jones 2018 Season Outlook

    First, a “push” from someone his size against a 5’7” 145 pound waiter could be life threatening. Second, he was inebriated, and may have been experiencing some kind of drunken PTSD, like he was back on the football field and needed to block to save his QB. He had already been rejected from one bathroom and the combine physical revealed his bladder is not commensurate with his height. He might’ve been growling menacingly. Third, I’d suggest many owners in 12-team leagues+ were drafting him as the bargain late-Round TE on a team with a poor D and weak WR corps...
  14. Jordan Wilkins 2018 Season Outlook

    Higher risk considering his competition, no? There’s a guy in front of CEdmonds who’ll play all three downs, and then will even play on 4th down for that one last yard...
  15. 2 QB League - Quick Question

    I know... if only I was working this week—and not on vacation—I’d be better able to find a diversion and stop drooling over what could be... Thanks for the brainpower. Glad you like the 2QB article.