'71 Bucks

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  1. Valid concern, but I think Ted Ginn was a sneaky good signing. He still has the speed to lift the lid, keep the defense honest and create space for the other guys to go to work. Also Thomas has legit contested catch skills. We'll see but I'm not that concerned about Cooks absence.
  2. Why is everybody using the fact that he plays as Drew Brees as a negative? Brees spreads it around too much? Dude was alone in 9th in the league in receptions last year with 92, as a rookie! His receptions/targets may not take a jump with Cooks gone, but it's hard to imagine them going down. WR9 as a rookie, more targets freed up, secure role in the Red Zone that Snead isn't going to cut into. It's hard to imagine him doing much worse than last year. Rock solid floor and his upside is top 5. He's 23 years old and still has a lot to learn about the game. Learning those things and working with a guy like Brees will only make him better. Physically a beast? Check. 6'2 220, broke 20 tackles last season. Wins contested catches. Involved in the Red Zone? Check. 6th most TDs by WR last season. Play in a great passing offense? Check. I'm picking 12th at the 1/2 turn in my redraft and if he's there I'm taking him without a second thought. I have him as the WR7 (behind Brown, Odell, Julio, AJG, Evans, and Jordy). Guys that make their hay in the red zone AND get volume are the WRs I want. Add in the fact he's so young - this may be the last year you can even get him as the WR7.
  3. Kelce's skill and talent have never been the issue, it's always do the Chiefs decide to feed him enough targets to put him there with the truly elite TEs. Maclin going obviously should solidify his target share. He's arguably the most bankable offense player on KC. The talent of Reed and Gronk without the injury concerns. Gronk will still probably go first because of the offense and TD production, maybe someone takes a stab at Reed earlier, but Kelce's the TE I want to own the most. Tons of upside with very little forseeable downside. Those are the type of players you want to own. I'd be comfortable taking him as early as the 3rd round at this point.
  4. Did you mean carries? I'm counting 7 games where he had 10 or more touches. Thing is, when they gave him the carries he balled out, that week 15 game 162 yds and 2 TDs on only 16 carries. Averaged 5.94 YPC on the season. He did well when he got the ball, the question is after a full year preparing as a full time RB, do they give him a bigger workload? I'm inclined to think they do. GB backfield is still one of the worst in the league for fantasy though, so I'm not expecting anything crazy. I think RB2 status is attainable and he'd do well to finish there.
  5. Rishard Matthews had 65 receptions last season. The only WR2s or higher that had fewer receptions were Tyreek Hill and Kelvin Benjamin. Matthews had 108 Targets. Only Hill had fewer with 83 (and obviously a lot of his value was tied to what he did outside of receiving). Now they've added a 1st and 3rd round receiver. I think he was already a prime candidate for regression based on his volume last season, and with the new competition I find it hard to imagine him matching last season's numbers, much less improving them. To be fair though, he finished higher in standard last year than I realized. He's probably a still a value this year, but I'm tempering expectations. He's a WR3/Flex guy for me.
  6. Totally agree. I think being the de facto #1 might actually be worse for Decker without someone to take the pressure off. His numbers have always been elevated by his TDs...worried those might not come easily this year for the Jets. I don't think Decker is injury prone (as you showed the numbers don't support that), I'm just worried about him turning 30 and coming off two off-season surgeries on body parts that tend to nag guys sometimes (shoulder and hip).
  7. You could be right about the better value. A Tavon Austin role is probably what I expect for Samuel too. He might have more play-making ability but probably less utilization (as the Rams schemed it to Austin constantly because they had no one else). 50 carries is just over 3/game so that's not really cutting into the rushing workload. Between Cam, J-Stew, and McCaffrey I seriously doubt a sub 200 lb. slot hybrid sees a lot of carries out of the backfield inside the 5 yard line. My point is that Samuel is a great player, might be the better value, but there's no indication right now that his workload will cannibalize McCaffrey's.
  8. This is a serious question: Do you think Samuel will be getting carries inside the 5 yard line for the Panthers on a consistent basis?
  9. Wow, going straight for the fandom .... Monty is a rocked up 215 lbs that loved to hit people even when he played WR. His physique and style aren't really comparable to Samuel. And the biggest reason he switched to RB? Team need. Which the Panthers don't have at RB. But they do at slot receiver.
  10. I'm not as down on Kupp as @boltup15 but I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Josh Reynolds is ahead of him on the depth chart by the time September rolls around.
  11. Good points, and I agree with you. I think Njoku and Engram have higher rookie year floors, but Howard probably has the higher ceiling especially if Brate goes down, and is therefore probably more worth a late flier. I still expect him to have a few big games interspersed with a lot of 2 rec/19 yard duds. Does Tampa run a lot of 12-personnel formations? Any chance they see significant snaps together? I just saw a stat that Brandon Myers and Luke Stocker combined for more snaps than Brate last season. Assuming Howard absorbs all of those, you might be on to something.
  12. Samuel is smaller than McCaffrey, under 200 lbs. He was OSU's most dynamic offensive player and they only trusted him to run the ball just over 7 times a game. All indications would have that number coming down even farther in the pros. More to my point, regardless of how he was used at OSU, I think the Panthers plan to use him as a slot receiver and all indications have been as such. After their two big outside receivers the next best guy is..Bersin? No more Ted Ginn. There's a clear need for a lid-lifting slot guy. Second-rounder Curtis Samuel said the Panthers told him he'll be used "primarily as a slot receiver." "I’ll be primarily in the slot, but sometimes we’ll both [along with first-rounder Christian McCaffrey] be in the backfield with Cam [Newton]," Samuel said. One of the most exciting players in the draft, Samuel figures to get looks all over the formation to use his speed. "With Curtis, we have 'oh my gosh' speed and he’s really a talented kid," GM Dave Gettleman said. "We feel we've really added an offensive playmaker with him." The Panthers clearly went into the draft looking to add a different dimension to their offense, and Samuel and McCaffrey provide it. May 1 - 11:01 AM
  13. Samuel: 171 offensive touches. McCaffrey: 290 offensive touches. Better per/touch numbers not that surprising when you're handling 40% less volume. I think there a key difference when you break down those touches: Samuel: 97 carries, 74 receptions McCaffrey: 253 carries, 37 receptions. McCaffrey handling over 2.5x as many carries. Samuel makes his hay catching the ball. Why I think he'll be playing mostly slot receiver (which is what he's already said the Panthers told him he would do). They literally have no one else to play that role. Not concerned right now with him stealing backfield work from McCaffrey. I doubt he gets even 5 carries a game. 4.33 he is a burner though, damn.
  14. Bye week fill-in. One of those guys that you can get relatively late that will put up consistent but unspectacular numbers barring an injury to the other receivers. Just too many mouths to feed. He'll be more valuable to the team in real-life than in fantasy. He'll probably be appropriately priced though, with the hype for Davis. Take him in the mid to late rounds and you might use him a few times. That's my expectation.
  15. He also housed a KO return in week 2 so actually he had 8. IIRC the big excitement for him at the time was that he had scored 8 TDs on like 50 total touches weeks 1-12. Can't vouch for anyone on here calling it though. Getting off track though. McCaffrey. Obviously different player than DJ. I've given my opinion on how I think he'll be used (Tevin Coleman-esque). What role do people expect Stewart to play this season? For the posters predicting RB1 status for McCaffrey, what are your thoughts? Predicting an injury or that he'll be phased out early on? Or can they co-exist and still retain value? I don't see how McCaffrey gets to RB1 without Stewart almost completely out of the picture, as you know Cam will get some rushing scores. Doesn't leave many to go around. That being said, he's 30+, always been a poor bet to stay healthy, and really has never been terribly effective when on the field (3.95 YPC the last two seasons combined).