Dream On

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  1. Can't believe, after all that's happened over the last year, people are still defending this guy.
  2. Wow. Maybe Bill is officially senile. So is AB legit crazy, or was this all just his grand plan to get out of Oak? The answer to that will determine how the rest of this year goes. One thing is for sure. All AB thinks about is AB, so when things don't go his way you know he's going to be trouble. Hope the Pats are in for a very rough ride.
  3. That work ethic hasn't been on display the past year though. To think he's going to sign somewhere and just put his nose to the grindstone so to speak, well, I highly doubt it. AB has drank too much of the AB Kool-aid, and it was clearly spiked with something, probably by Big Ben.
  4. Boy, that's putting a nice spin on things. Yup, he was pretty professional this past year.
  5. At his age is when receivers start to decline. That's all I'm basing that on. He may prove to be one of the exceptions, but not the way he's going. Then there is the question of which team he lands on, and whether they will throw as often or as competently as the Steelers did. This is a total dumpster fire, way more than TO or Josh Gordon ever was, and people are clinging to him signing to a SB contender and putting up 1,500 yards with 12 TDs!
  6. It's crazy to me that you think he can still put up an all-pro type season. He's clearly not focused on football and his skills, impressive as they are, are declining. One strike policy, prove it type deal? Again, anything is possible. But a team will have to want to take on the massive distraction, a guy who likely has CTE and is really off his rocker at the moment, a guy who will be a distraction for the rest of the team, it's coaching staff, and it's front office. If anyone signs a player like this they really shouldn't be running an NFL team.
  7. Anything is possible, there may be 1 or 2 out of 30 that thinks they can turn him around. But this isn't typical NFL head case type stuff. If all of these other 30 teams (excluding the Steelers and Raiders) have been paying attention, no one is going to do it. And that leaves Vince McMahon, who will, but he's got nothing to lose.
  8. Yup. No one is going to sign him. You'd have to be nuts to do so. Some fans in this thread are delusional. Pats? Chiefs? Bills? LMAO! He's gonna sign somewhere and ball out! Shove it in the Steelers and Raiders faces! I can guarantee the Bills are relieved, RELIEVED, they didn't get him this past summer. He's on the wrong side of 30, and what we didn't know back when the Raiders signed him, is just how nuts he is. Now we do. No one is going to want to deal with that distraction. And to call it a distraction is an understatement. The sad thing is, I bet in five years, if AB is still alive, he'll be completely broke. What are the odds this guy has saved up even $1 million or more and invested it wisely? We'll have some very interesting documentaries to look forward to. Maybe a short stint in the XFL. And that's probably it. Maybe the AB believers can transfer his rights to their XFL fantasy team, lol.
  9. I won't regret it. The top of the draft is not where one should take big risks. There are a lot of very productive players and other teams are going to get them, so you have to make sure you get yours as well. To me it's utter foolishness, utter foolishness, to draft AB over, say, Zach Ertz. I try to avoid problems. Look at all the hype over Josh Gordon. How has he worked out for people owning him over the last five years? Dude is nothing more than a headache 90% of the time. How did drafting Lev Bell go for people last year? No way do I draft guys in the first half of a draft that have major question marks hanging over them. But I'm risk averse. Just see no point in taking on unneeded risk when guys who are just as good, or close to it, are available. The upside isn't big enough, and the downside is massive. When would I have drafted AB this year? Perhaps when players like A Rob and Sammy Watkins were off the board. In other words, he'd never have fallen to me. Now maybe AB goes out and puts up big numbers this year. But I think he is clearly unfocused and I would bet the opposite. He's jumped the shark so to speak. 30 years old, and clearly distracted, and on a much worse team. Why people expect him to put up AB in-his-prime numbers I have no idea. It's wishful thinking. Maybe it happens, but I sure wouldn't bet big on it. The "media drama", as you call it, I also have to disagree with. TO was media drama. But TO was still focused on football, despite all the stuff he did. And he was always productive, even when teams stopped signing him. With AB it's much more than just media drama. He has major issues. And all I've heard repeated this off-season is how he's the hardest working guy people have ever seen. Bull crap! I sure don't see that this summer. Or last year when he quit on the Steelers. If this ends well it'll be a miracle.
  10. I don't think this strategy is supporting taking highly ranked QB's (let alone defenses or kickers). It's valuing RBs and the best TEs. I don't support taking these positions over WR when better WRs are available - that's where you are handcuffing yourself just to stick to a strategy. But I think it makes sense to ensure you secure at least one high end RB and one high end TE. There are many more productive WRs that can be drafted later on than there are productive RBs and TEs. I agree TE has a lot of year-to-year variance. Maybe though, it's safe to say if you grab one of Kelce, Kittle, or Ertz you will be fine. Maybe Howard at the very least. You probably need to draft in the 3rd/4th round to secure one of these guys. Frankly, drafting one of these guys is no different than drafting a top WR (in terms of their production); where you get the advantage is that they should smack their opponent down hard in most weeks (when they aren't playing each other), which is a significant advantage. And when they are playing each other, you should be competitive at that spot.
  11. Shouldn't he outperform a bunch of rookies? And I'm sure one or two of those guys is likely to not amount to much over their careers. Just the way it goes with draft picks. I don't think White has proven that he can't play in this league - it's been all about injuries with him. Though last year was concerning as he was healthy and the Bears evidently didn't think he was good enough to put on the field very often. It's a little bold maybe, but on the other hand I don't see it as very risky. Not like I'm drafting him in even the middle rounds. If he shows well in August, and it's clear he will make the team as WR3 at the very least, I can grab him near the end of my drafts. For dynasty, well, I've stubbornly held on to him but that just costs me a roster spot that I'd use to grab some waiver wire calibre player. And one of these leagues has deep benches, so in that league it's not hard to keep him. I agree this will be an offense likely to get you a lot of garbage time points. Like the Jags a few seasons ago, when Bortles put up numbers. To me I'd draft Fitz, Kirk, or White. I don't have a ton of faith in rookies putting up big numbers, at least not right at the start of the year. But one of those guys might be a good waiver wire add a month or two into the season if it looks like an opportunity is opening up for him.
  12. I'm betting on White. Hope he can stay healthy. That's a lot to hope for I know. Been holding him for two years in one dynasty league, and one year in another. Would be awesome if he puts together a solid year. Assuming he has a good August I will probably draft him in my redraft leagues as well at the very end of each draft.
  13. I generally agree with this; I wouldn't handcuff myself to a specific strategy, but this is an interesting thread as I just did a bit of draft prep. I took the player projections made by the Football Guys website and used that to determine a projected draft (based on VOR - Value Over Replacement). I then compared this draft order to the current ADP posted on FFC. I highlighted in yellow any players that were taken within 10 spots of their expected draft position (or later). This suggests that the player is taken right about where he's expected to be taken, or even later (meaning he is good value). The data shows the following: RB - RB's have a lot of value as we all know, and they tend to be taken early. What is amazing I thought is that the top 32 RB's (all the way down to McCoy) were highlighted in yellow. After that most were highlighted. The ones who weren't were Guice, Penny, and Howard.That takes us all the way to pick RB45. After this there are more instances of guys being taken before their expected draft spot, but those players are Montgomery, Henderson, Ronald Jones, Sanders, Samuels, Hyde, Foreman, Kareem Hunt, Breida and Damien Harris. These guys are 1st/2nd year players or guys that are basically #2 RBs. WR - A similar scenario presents itself at WR. The top 30 WRs are all taken within 10 spots (or later) of their projected place in the draft. The first who was taken too early (by 14 spots) is A.J. Green. Which is logical; I may want to try reaching for him myself (he was taken 47th despite being projected at 61st). After this we have very few WRs taken early; Allison, Harry, Parris Campbell, and Marquise Goodwin. That's it! Out of 88 receivers on the list QB - This is where people seem to be reaching. Difference between ADP and expected draft spot is below for all these guys who are taken earlier than expected: Mahomes -18 spots Luck -23 Rodgers -36 Wentz -18 Ryan -28 Wilson -11 Brees -37 Mayfield -49 Goff -13 Murray -37 Garoppolo -18 Rivers -50 Brady -41 Note: the - after the name is a minus sign. I basically took the ADP and subtracted the EDP (expected draft position), so if a guy is taken early like Mahomes is by 18 spots, it's minus 18. Guys who did not get taken early: Watson -10 (barely made the cutoff) Ben +28 Newton -5 Winston +2 Lamar +23 Trubisky +29 Prescott +2 Allen +25 Cousins +2 Stafford +4 Carr -6 TE- Here we have the top 3 guys being highlighted (Kelce -4, Ertz -6, Kittle -6). After that people seem to be reaching a bit: Engram -15 Howard -21 Henry -26 Ebron -33 Cook -35 Hooper -1 McDonald -41 Njoku -36 After that there are no reaches other than Olsen -24, Fant -14, and Hockenson at -64. Hopefully all of that makes sense. Basically, I think this shows that what most people do, taking WR and RB early, makes sense. You go for the best player. Grabbing the top 3 TE's where they typically go is also a great advantage. But perhaps after those three are gone, people are reaching for the next tier of guys. And of course, people are reaching way too early at QB for many of those guys. Of course, this is only as good as the projections. If I think O.J. Howard can hit 200 points rather than his projected 176, he isn't being drafted too early. So I think you have to identify those players and target them. When I look at the list of players on my spreadsheet, I doubt I would ever go zero RB or zero WR. The drop off after the top 20 RBs is too drastic to go zero RB. I want one of the top 20 guys, and I've identified the ones I like most. But like someone in this thread said, if you take Chubb over say someone like Odell or Brown, just because of a strategy, you're 9 times out of 10 making a mistake. I've had years where I've drafted Keenan Allen who went down with an injury in week one, or some other WR who bombed (think I drafted A Rob when he got hurt as well). If you don't nail those first 2 or 3 picks, you're in a big hole. If you do nall them then it doesn't really matter where you go; WR, RB, TE. If those guys get you a consistent 20+ points almost every week, that's what I want from those positions. That's a big chunk of the way to the 130+ points or whatever I need to win each week. And there are plenty of WRs that can help achieve that better than RBs can at that point in the draft. For example, once the top 4 or 5 RBs are taken, if you are drafting in spots 6-10, it totally makes sense to pull the trigger on one of the very best WRs in the NFL, rather than a 2nd or 3rd tier RB. I think my strategy is to have the following after 5 rounds: 2 RBs 2 WRs 1 TE This allows me to take the best player available to me at the time but to also grab a top flight TE in either rounds 3 or 4. Exactly where I draft my WRs or RBs will simply depend on what spot I have in the draft, but I'd be going either WR-RB to start the draft or RB-WR. I must say I'm also kicking around the idea of basically going zero TE and drafting Olsen late, along with Ian Thomas. This way if Olsen goes down I can just start Thomas. But not sure I have enough faith in Olsen. I'd definitely need a 3rd option at TE, someone like Andrews maybe.
  14. Plus O.J. Howard, Hunter Henry, Hooper, maybe Eifert doesn't get hurt, maybe Gisicki does something, Vance, Herndon, Njoku, etc. Lots of options. With Gronk, my feeling is that I'll let someone else waste a roster spot on a guy who's heart probably isn't in it anymore (he's already retired and lost muscle). Even if he does come back, is he going to put up Gronk-in-his-prime numbers? No way; probably a lot closer to last year's numbers. And that's if he comes back at all, which I'd give no more than a 40% chance. Gronk would probably benefit greatly from an entire year off rather than just an extended summer. I'm generally risk averse though. I usually avoid guys with serious questions marks. Gordon, Hunt (dumped him in dynasty last year after the news broke), Lev Bell (DND last year). I think that's generally worked out well. These problem players are often nothing but a headache. There are usually lots of other options.
  15. I don't think waiting is such a slam dunk. I always wait and last year I had Stafford starting for me in two leagues. I had to eventually find replacements as he just had too many poor weeks (one of the leagues did have inflated QB stats, so that guys like Mahomes were putting up 70-90 points a week, and the average QB was putting up 50-60; weekly team totals were around 170-230). But even in the standard league, Stafford wasn't productive enough. When he routinely puts up 16 and the other team's QB puts up 25, that's enough of a hole to try to get out of. And when you have a poor starting QB (or one who goes down with an injury), often what is left on waivers are guys like Smith, Dalton, Rosen, Tannehill, etc. Now obviously most teams in a typical league will do fine waiting, which is I guess the point. I just wouldn't take it for granted. Somehow I always seem to have QB issues, which makes me think I may want to just go ahead and grab a QB a little earlier in my drafts (I'd probably target Luck, or at least not wait until there has already been a run on QBs).