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  1. Larry Fitzgerald 2018 Outlook

    This week's matchup against Oak and more specifically Leon Hall is another one in which I feel comfortable with Fitz being in my lineup (WR3 over Smoke Brown). Leon Hall has given up 21 catches on 24 targets for 325 yards including 216 YAC yards. Gives up a 87.5% catch rate 15.5yd/catch and a 118.8 passer rating when targeted (That's high, like, Top 5 in the league high for qualified CB's). Coverage grade of 58.5 from PFF on a team that grades out 30th vs the slot, 26th against the short pass and next to last in pressure. What's it tell us? Rosen will have time, the short/intermediate routes will be open, leading to some easy decisions for the young QB to put the ball on his guy - who's averaging 8.75 targets/ 57.75 yards/.5 TD a game over the last quarter of the season. I see it being a solid day for Fitz - somewhere in the neighborhood of 6/80/1 with a reasonable chance at a blowup and very, very safe floor in PPR.
  2. Aaron Rodgers 2018 Outlook

    I'm sitting him too. The biggest thing for me is the coupling of Seattle wanting to control the clock with the run (this week against a team graded 25th against the run by Pff) + the Pack's new commitment to the run with AJones (this week against a team graded as the 22nd rush D by PFF). I still plan on "flexing" (in my wr3 spot) MVS but I think the likelihood we see Rodgers with a 220/2/1 line outweighs the chance we see a 330/3/0 line by a pretty wide margin. For transparency, I'm starting Watson vs Washington in his place.
  3. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2018 Outlook

    I see. Good stuff. Thanks for the effort man!
  4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2018 Outlook

    What are you seeing here? I have 5 people for 3 spots, including MVS. I see SEA has been very serviceable against everyone in the passing game except the #1 WR. Initially feeling like another Adams show out. Was leaning sitting him in an away game vs 12th man for Fitz vs Oak and possibly Brown vs Cin depending on QB situation in Baltimore.... Interested to hear some more takes in here.
  5. Calvin Ridley 2018 Outlook

    Played in a lot of packages most weeks, 90% of snaps last week and was pretty serviceable. Metrics are actually quite good but limited sample. Wouldn’t change my opinion of starting Ridley if I was planning on doing so.
  6. Calvin Ridley 2018 Outlook

    Cle as a whole is pretty average against WR1, slightly better against #2's but with the injuries who knows. I like this spot for Ridley. Also, I don't think Julio suffers a bad game here, they should both be in line for decent games and some elite WR's have had some success against Ward. Namely AB.... but he's AB. Ward has a decent coverage rating, has broken up 5, allowed 5 TD's, 1 INT. Every metric (catch rate, burn rate, yds of separation allowed, etc) really shows he's decent but not shut down by any stretch. I don't imagine he locks down Julio. As for Ridley this week..... that position is just shredded by injury + a cut made this week that it would be difficult not to imagine him finding some success, even though the numbers below don't show them hemhorraging huge games consistently to that spot. I'm just adding this for ya'll to see, the constant has been Ward on #1's with a rotating cast against #2s Here's Look at #'1's and #2's against CLE with some TE #'s for reference. On the whole, they've been good against TE, Kelce murdered them. week 6: Keenan 4/62/0 Ty 3/118/2 week 7: Evans 7/107/0 Desean 2/25/0 TE: 5/67 week 8: Antonio 8/74/2 JuJu 4/33/0 TE: 3/47/0 week 9: Tyreek 4/69/0 Sammy 5/62/0 TE: 7/99/2 I don't know if this helps anyone but I had the information handy so I wanted to share it.
  7. John Ross 2018 Outlook

    He's likely matched up on Eli Apple quite a bit this week. Apple has been graded pretty poorly in his 2 games with the Saints and gave up 7/144/1 line with 70% completion rate last week (albeit against a tough rams team). Apple has a pretty high burn rate and isn't known for being overly focused or tenacious for 4 quarters..... He's got a good shot at a serviceable game, outside shot at a lid lifter. Maybe a 3-4 reception game with good chunk gains and a reasonable shot at a score in a game they'll have to throw the ball around a lot to keep pace.
  8. Larry Fitzgerald 2018 Outlook

    I had the choice and went Fitz. 1PPR.
  9. Larry Fitzgerald 2018 Outlook

    This should be a good week for Fitz, IMO. Coming off the bye, new OC who clearly wants him involved, targets/game trending right direction, positive game script likely incoming, etc. He'll be lined up against Kendall Fuller in the slot most always, who generally offers a safe floor, but also offers some pretty high upside - allowing an average of 15.6 Fantasy Points per game (good for 86th) with a couple 25+ games early from Keenan and JuJu. He gives up on average - 7.9 targets (82nd) 5.7 receptions/game (90th), 78 yards/ game (90th), 71% catch rate (77th) and a 106 QB rating allowed when targeted (61st). Fuller"s last 4 matchups: Edelman: 4/85/1 Boyd: 4/46/0 Sanders: 6/86/0 Landry: 6/76/0 AZ will likely be boat raced out of this one pretty quickly, the Chiefs have been improving on pressuring the QB with a few young guys coming on strong as of late, which should lead to a lot of passing and a lot of quick routes over the middle against a D that has struggled there immensely. With all of this, coupled with Fitz's RZ and EZ target share being in the top 10 - I expect a reasonable shot at a TD once this one gets outta hand. And it will get outta hand. Not much meat on the bone in the way of implied points (16.5) but wouldn't shock me if Fitz finds pay dirt this week and racks up some garbage time pts. He's a very solid play this week.
  10. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2018 Outlook

    Loving the matchup this week. Xavien typically shadows the top threat and the rest of the Miami secondary has been woeful. Looks like a matchup with Bobby McCain who ranks 131st in success rate against the pass behind a front seven that ranks 29th in pressure rate at 24.4%. This means Rodgers should have plenty of time to operate and allow some big play routes to develop against a secondary that has seen their DVOA plummet in 3/4 matchups from 32.4% to 59.4% culminating with week 8's 135.5% against Houston's #2 Will Fuller who went for 5/124/1 when he tore his ACL with half a quarter to play. They got back on track a bit against NYJ but I expect the trend to continue downward when they play ball at Lambeau. Hype train buls**t aside, PUT THIS MAN IN YOUR LINEUP THIS WEEK.
  11. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2018 Outlook

    2nd half 2018 is MVSZN
  12. Courtland Sutton 2018 Outlook

    He's got a top 5 schedule the rest of the way and 2 weeks to prepare for his next game going into that final stretch. It's easy for armchair QB's in here and elsewhere to say the "hype train" was unfounded and he's not gonna produce but he's got a good shot to be contributor this year, which is still especially encouraging at the price point a lot of us got him at.... I wouldn't draw too many firm conclusions after one week in his current role.
  13. Pick 3 to start this week WHIR

    I'm going Golladay, Sutton, Ingram. Thanks for the help!
  14. I would probably drop either of the top 2 and not look back.