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About Fort4242

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  1. Christian McCaffrey 2018 Outlook

    I agree with all this and that's the standpoint I'm looking at it from. No way 80 catches happens, but I think 15-16 touches per game is very achievable.
  2. Christian McCaffrey 2018 Outlook

    Any new thoughts on this guy? He played 100% of the first team snaps, and received 6 touches on the 14 plays - one of which was a goal line carry which he converted into a TD. I was looking over CMC this year because I thought "no way is he sniffing 80 catches again with Moore, Olsen, Anderson in the fold." Anderson was going to steal carries, and Norv Turner/Ron Rivers talking about 25 touches a game is ridiculous. I still think CMC getting 25 touches a game is nuts - no way that happens. However, after watching his involvement in PS Week 1, I don't think we can overlook the fact he was the only RB involved. If this continues the next 2 PS games, I have to bump CMC up my rankings. 250 touches on the season is only 15.6 per game. Any new thoughts after Week 1?
  3. Duke Johnson 2018 Outlook

    Yeah I agree that this is the only reservation I have this year with Duke. He's obviously a very talented back who excels at catching passes. However, there is much more competition for RB touches this year, and the WR corp looks a lot stronger than last year. Plus, the Browns aren't going to be Superbowl champs, but they SHOULD be a lot better than last year's abomination. Perhaps they're actually competitive in more games, and they don't need to throw it around as much. However, Chubb looked un-inspiring last week (albeit only 1 week of PS football), Hyde historically gets hurt (last season was first full 16), and Gordon isn't even with the team right now.
  4. Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

    Any updates on his injury? If he is good to go and 100% by the start of the season, he is one of my favorite WRs this year. 217 targets missing from last year (7th most in the league), Graham and Richardson gone, crappy defense should require more passing, Penny already dinged up and Procise never is healthy. They're going to need to lean on Russ and Baldwin A TON this year. The only pause I have, is this knee injury which has kept him out all pre season.
  5. Derrick Henry 2018 Outlook
  6. 2018 Vent & Rant Thread

    Just had THREE people drop out of a league this past weekend - we've had the date set since June.
  7. Derrius Guice 2018 Outlook

    Do you move Guice up in rankings because he performed well, move him down because of the injury, or keep him the same after last night?
  8. Alex Collins 2018 Outlook

    Somehow Buck Allen finds a way to be fantasy relevant: 2017: #23 PPR RB - 46 Catches, 841 Total Yards, 6 TDs 2015: # 30 PPR RB - 45 Catches, 860 Total Yards, 3 TDs 2016 missed a lot of the season
  9. Nelson Agholor 2018 Outlook

    Yeah Shep had some really nice games last year and was overall productive, he just missed some time with migraines I believe. For example, Shep had a stat line of 59-731-2 in only 11 games. That stat line extrapolates to 85-1,063-3 over 16 games. But, as we know, all the other WRs got hurt on the Giants, and they had zero running game to speak of. However, his efficiency improved nicely from year 1 to year 2. Yards per reception and Catch % both jumped up. So while he won't get as many targets as he was getting last year (122 for a 16 game pace), I think he'll be more efficient with his targets, and could probably finish somewhere around 100-105 targets, 70-75 catches, 850-900 Yards, and 4-5 TDs. Not a monster stat line, but will definitely give you value at a WR 43 ADP.
  10. Nelson Agholor 2018 Outlook

    I like a lot of those guys you mentioned too. I just see Agholor as the #3 option in the offense, behind Alshon and Ertz. I'll take the #3 in a great offense in the 9th/10th round of my draft. Shephard is in the same boat as Agholor and I would consider Shephard's competition for touches better than Agholor's. Either way, I see Shep and Agholor as exactly the same situation and if both are on the board around that pick, it might be a coin flip.
  11. David Johnson 2018 Outlook

    Thanks bro. New offenses are always tough to project but with a guy like McCoy he's got enough of a sample size. But who the hell really knows
  12. David Johnson 2018 Outlook

    I like Palmer > Bradford, but only slightly. If you could guarantee 16 games of Bradford, you probably get top 15 QB play at least. People tend to discredit Bradford, but he's a very good QB when he plays. I don't think the supporting cast is too significantly different, so all together I might call it a wash. We're talking small preferences here though. I don't think anyone can say the 2016 squad was "leaps and bounds" better than the 2018 line up. If anything, 2016 MIGHT have been marginally better IMO. The biggest thing that stood out though was in 2016, during DJs historic run, the Cardinals were still only 21st in rushing attempts, and 18th in rushing yards. The thing that propelled DJ to elite tier, was his passing game usage. That isn't going to change this year. I can def see 100+ targets again this year for DJ, even if the team is terrible. Look at San Diego in 2015. Mike McCoy was the head coach, and San Diego was terrible (4-12). RBs still got ~170 targets that year. Even if AZ is worse than I think, and goes 5-11/6-10 DJ is still going to be very involved in the passing game, and will still clean up in PPR. 20 TDs won't happen again, but 12 total? Absolutely can see that.
  13. David Johnson 2018 Outlook

    Couldn't you have said the same thing in 2016? AZ had no threat outside of Fitz in 2016 as well. JJ Nelson, John Brown, Michael Floyd, Jermaine Gresham....not much top end talent here either. the O line in 2016 wasn't that good either. I see this team as very similar to the 2016 team, except one caveat.... I think the biggest difference between 2016 and this year is the coach - Bruce Arians is gone. Steve Wilks is the head coach, and he has been a defense guy, so I imagine the flow of the offense will go through Mike McCoy. Historically, McCoy led offenses have been in top half in passing offense (Yards, Attempts, TDs - outside of 2011 w/ Tebow) and have been middle to low in rushing production (Finished #1 in attempts and yards once, in 2011 with Tebow). In 2016 when DJ had his crazy year, Arizona was top in the league in passing (#3 in attempts and #9 in yards) but the rushing numbers weren't that high (#21 in attempts and #18 in yards). This kind of matches up with McCoy's history as well - productive passing numbers and mid-tier rushing numbers. I don't expect AZ to be an elite team by any stretch, especially in that division. But I expect them to be 7-9/8-8, and be competitive in most games. Either way, DJ is script proof because of his proficiency in the passing game.
  14. David Johnson 2018 Outlook

    Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen are both very accurate. IDK why people are THAT concerned about AZs QB situation. Sam Bradford is a great QB when he's playing. Obviously health has always been the issue. Once Bradford gets hurt, and Rosen steps in, Rosen was considered by a lot to be the best pocket passer in this class. And "poor old Fitzy" is an elite talent, hall of famer, who has shown no signs of slowing down.
  15. Nelson Agholor 2018 Outlook

    I love Agholor this year. He got 95 targets last year, and I think we could see an uptick in volume for him. Alshon is already dealing with injury, and is on the PUP list. He could miss time to start the season, and is usually hampered with some type of soft tissue nagging injury. The Eagles also have 146 targets missing from last year, which is 11th highest in the league. With the available targets, plus Alshon possibly missing time, I don't think 110-115 targets is out of the question? Based on his efficiency last year, 115 targets would give him 75 catches, 930 Yards, and TDs are flukey so even if his TDs go down to 6 (25% less), that gives him 204 PPR points. Would have finished: WR17 last year WR22 in 2016 WR27 in 2015 So if WR totals stay on the lower end like 2017, we might have a solid WR2. Even if WR output comes back to normal (like 2015 and 2016), you're still getting top 30 production. Meanwhile, Agholor's ADP right now is WR44, which I think he absolutely outperforms this year. I love the WRs in the 40-50 range - Agholor, Stills, Shephard, Goodwin