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Everything posted by bluefrogguy

  1. For me the trust level plummets between say the late 30s to late 40s. Assuming I pass on the top pitchers like I usually do, I'll need to keep that drop off in mind and maybe spend an extra pick or two on a pitcher in the mid rounds when they are all going.
  2. .475 BABIP and 59% LOB% will turn a 3.20 FIP/3.48 xFIP into a 7.13 ERA Elite prospect pedigree with slow career start with numbers to suggest he was unlucky... sign me up for the discount next year!
  3. So he's sitting at 48.1 IP. Hoping he doesn't surpass rookie limits this year in the last 5 days so I can keep him as a prospect in a keeper league.
  4. 34th ADP in the 6 "2early" mocks and went 32, 34, 34, 35, 35, and 47 in those six mocks. So late mid to late third in 5, slipped to late fourth in one. If you want him will probably have to spend a 3rd rounder at this point.
  5. Slash line identical to 2017. Feel like a bounceback is coming for sure. Too young and too talented. But how much of a bounce back?
  6. He’s been great in Sept. productive across the board. It sure how to value him for next year but as far as 2019 fantasy playoffs he’s been a strong play.
  7. Good start last night. 7IP, 2ER, 5H, 2BB and 7Ks. 15th win of the year (#7) and 16th quality start (#22). 12th in IP. I've held him all year and been satisfied. A durable, boring innings eater in fantasy, but a useful guy to keep most of the year as one of your last SPs. Downgrade in k/9 leagues though and the increase in BB rate is a concern. But I will probably look to grab him in the later rounds again next year.
  8. Flaherty. You already have at least 5 solid starts with your others. I'd play it safe.
  9. Very league/ standings context dependent. Anderson is a K/9 and ratios machine right now. I value him highly and would look elsewhere in a vacuum. But you make moves right now that help you win and I could see a situation where it would make sense.
  10. Can only keep one FA pickup during the year for next season in a contract league. Gallen or JD Davis?
  11. Should end up with .300, 35 HR, 90- 100 R and RBI. A significant step back from last year's monster numbers, but still a nice power/avg source, which don't grow on trees. i get some trepidation that skills are in decline, but still in a great lineup and ball park. I'm not discounting too much in my mind.
  12. Fangraphs article on Davis: Some risk/ lack of track record but in rebuilding dynasty he's a no-brainer add. In contending dynasty and redraft might as well ride the wave out at a minimum if you have a 1b or OF need. This feels like a 2nd half breakout.
  13. [...] .327/,346/.713 last 30 days with 8 HR and 5 SB over 101 ABs with 18 R and 25 RBIs. Depending on scoring system, as high as #1 hitter over that time.
  14. Francona pretty excited about his scheduled bullpen sessions this week. Still without a timeline but he was clearly optimistic today. Seems like he will pitch this year. When and how well is TBD but mostly positive news. What a neat moment that will be when he heads to the mound in a game this year. Talk about an ovation.
  15. Happ coming off the paternity list to face the REd Sox an easy pass for me. As an aside, I’d like to see a study of how pitchers pitch coming off paternity leave. Intuitively (and from experience!) seems like you might be tired and distracted.
  16. HTH league with weekly start limit so I can only start 2 of these: Paxton vs Bos M Perez vs KC Matz @ Pit May vs SD 6x6 (QS)
  17. His value tanked because of the lack of PT, but if regular ABs it's a different story. Gonna strike out at a high rate but BBs way up this year. Low average SB+HR source, but the kind of player that could go on a tear, On a nice streak since being inserted back in the lineup so definitely worth rostering in most leagues to see if this is a turnaround.
  18. He most certainly has had and will have some age related decline in baseball ability, and the slope of that decline is one of the harder things to gauge in dynasty. But definitely don't agree with the statement that cancer can never be cured. There are lots of kinds of cancers that can be cured. Unless there is some poor prognostic features (and doesn't sound like there is) his is one that is very treatable. I don't think his long term value changes at all. And again, if you thought his struggles early were an indication of rapid age related decline, he has a pretty good excuse for struggling. Heck, it's kinda impressive he did as well as he did.
  19. I'd pick him up ASAP in that dynasty league. I would anyway. This is a good diagnosis. Plus with the fatigue and anemia it explains his lackluster performance earlier in the year.
  20. The consistent ABs at DH when he wasn't playing catcher convinced me pick him up, despite my preconceived biases against him. Obviously not a top option, but good as any in the next group.
  21. According to this it is CML (chronic myeloid leukemia): This is excellent news for him. Treament of CML is one of the big breakthroughs of targeted therapy the last 20 years with incredible results. If he has a garden variety CML without any negative prognostic factors, he likely has an excellent prognosis and the therapy isn't too physically taxing like for acute leukemia (oral pill). I wouldn't be surprised to see him back this year earlier than expected with that diagnosis. 25 years ago, it would have been a poor prognosis. Fantasy wise I think his dynasty value goes up with this news (decreased concern of long term sequelae). I think in redraft leagues with lots of IL slots, he's worth a IL stash, albeit not a high priority one. I'd consider him about like Rich Hill value in terms of IL stashes.
  22. In this day and age Pineda like variability is the norm. I can live with that variability for free.
  23. Agree with others- hard to know prognosis and when he’ll be back based on info we have. However some good signs, starting with the announcement itself. For the Indians and Carrasco to put this out there probably means they feel good about where he’s at in treatment. He’s visiting kids with leukemia, which he probably wouldn’t do if in the middle of an intense part of his treatment. And we know he’s played catch and at least there is the possibility he will come back this year. All this points to getting past the critical phase of treatment which is obviously a good sign. Really don’t think this affects his redraft or dynasty value too much. If you haven’t already, redraft I think you can move on unless unlimited IL slots. Dynasty is a hold as prognosis seems positive.