joshtribe

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  1. Clevinger left the game with upper back tightness. Doesn't sound overly serious.
  2. As a Clev owner and a Tribe fan, I am very concerned. TV shot showed the head trainer conferring with Tito and pitching coach Carl Willis after Clevinger was removed from the game. No word yet as to why.
  3. I analyzed Puig the other day very similarly to the method used by taobball. I came up with a 520 AB / 29 HR / 79 R / 84 RBI / 15 SB / .269 projection. According to SGP, that makes him a clear value at his currect NFBC ADP.
  4. You have to remember, the slower, high-OBP guys will be getting on in front of him and limiting his SB opportunities. If he happens to lead off an inning by reaching first base and the game context makes a SB advantageous, I would agree that he could likely be running ahead of the weaker hitters to follow. But that scenario won't play out "a lot." I might be able to be talked into making him a third round pick, but I generally refuse to gamble with my early picks. Right now his ADP on NFBC is 8th! His high is 4 and his low is 16! Any player with only a partial major league season is a gamble that early, no matter how talented he may be. I would rather take the likes of Arenado, Bregman, Turner, Machado, Judge, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Stanton, etc. who are being taken after him. Those guys are money in the bank. They are in their primes and have proven themselves over multiple major league seasons. They've already figured out how to adjust to big league pitchers who have adjusted to them. I would rather take the boring, safe, proven guys with my most valuable draft picks than be the one who gambles that Acuna will become their equal in his first full season in the show. But hey, everyone has his or her own degree of risk tolerance, and for those folks, taking bold risks on players like Acuna is part of the fun of playing fantasy baseball.
  5. Thanks for the rebuttal, which is partially why I posted that information. I like to have my preconceived notions challenged. Inspired by your Goldschmidt info, I dug a little deeper. I looked up the career splits for Goldy, Mookie Betts, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez, all of whom are fairly comparable to Acuna as power/speed threats. All of them have attempted more stolen bases per PA batting 4th than they have batting 1st or 2nd. The sample sizes aren't the greatest and variations in OBP could factor in, but it is interesting nonetheless. I'm not a Braves fan, but it seems to me that the only lineup spot locked down is Freeman batting 3rd. Inciarte, Albies, Donaldson, and Acuna will likely move around. I expect Donaldson to hit the DL at some point. I would guess that Albies would bat 2nd in that case, but who really knows. Right now, the best information we have suggests that Acuna will be the primary cleanup hitter. Given the competing lines of data, perhaps my initial worries about Acuna's SB potential this season were overblown. He probably won't bat 4th the entire season; and even if he does, it appears he could end up stealing a lot more bases than one would expect from a 4 hole hitter. I'll bump my projection up from 16 to 18. Still less than the projection models, but still a solid number of SBs. I'm still probably not drafting Acuna. There will probably be at least one true believer in every league who is willing to draft him in the late 1st/early 2nd round. For me, rounds 1-3 are all about safe players with high floors and a degree of upside. I will never draft a player with less than a full season of ML experience that early. I would be assuming a lot of risk for minimal profit. Keeping my projection for Acuna overly modest will insure that I adhere to this precept.
  6. I'm working on my personal projections for the upcoming season, and I just finished projecting Acuna. One thing I noticed when consulting other projections (Steamer, THE BAT, Rotochamp, etc) is that they all project Acuna to steal 20+ bases. Some people are drafting him with 30+ SB upside in mind. On the surface, this seems reasonable. He stole 44 bases in the minors in 2017. Last season, he stole 21 between AAA and the majors. If you pace his major league steal rate over a full season of at bats, he ends up with 22 steals. His sprint speed is excellent. His 29.6 ft/sec places him 11th among players with 50 or more competitive runs. Yet despite all this, I project him to steal only 16 bases. One factor that I believe isn't being considered by the projection models is his projected place in the Braves lineup. Both Roster Resource and Rotochamp project him to bat cleanup. Last season, Acuna spent most of his time batting 1st (301 PA) or 2nd (116 PA...70 PA in other positions including 44 in the 6th spot). He stole all 16 of his bases batting 1st or 2nd and zero in any other lineup position. I had a hard time thinking of a cleanup hitter who stole a significant amount of bases, so I did some digging. I found the following article on fangraphs. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/how-does-batting-order-affect-stolen-bases/ The key quote from the article... "It’s hard to wade through all of this data. Some of it’s conflicting. There are many variables at play. But where a player hits in the lineup does seem to affect stolen base frequency. You never want to see that a base stealer is going to bat third or fourth." With Acuna being considered by many to be a 1st round pick in his sophomore season, I think his new lineup spot could have enough of a negative impact on his SB total to make him a 1st round bust. Draft with caution.
  7. After some rooting around, I found baseballsavant's description of the stat, which they call xBA. "xBA takes the individual Hit Probability numbers from each batted ball and reports them on an accumulated seasonal basis, on the batting average scale. By comparing expected numbers to real-world outcomes, it can be possible to identify which hitters (or pitchers) are over- or under-performing their demonstrated skill." I haven't found anything useful concerning xstats xAVG. I assume it could be described similarly to how baseballsavant describes xBA--similar methods with the same goal--yet they produce very different results. This leaves one guessing as to which should be trusted for player evaluation and projection.
  8. Hi folks, I've gotten started on my player projections for the 2019 season. While analyzing the first dozen catchers, I've been using baseballsavant and xstats.org, trying to incorporate statcast data into my projections. When analyzing a player's 2018 batting average vs. their xAVG, I've discovered that the xAVG produced by baseballsavant and xstats.org always differs, often dramatically. , For example, in the case of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, his batting average last season was .261. Baseballsavant says his xAVG .250, so I got the impression he was a little lucky to have hit over .260 last season. But then I checked xstats, where his xAVG is .276. Seeing that, I could conclude that he was unlucky last season and might even hit for a higher average this season. For some players I've looked at, the two sites differ by as much as .050. Could someone please provide some insight as to why these two sources disagree and which is more trustworthy for player evaluation? Thanks!
  9. I think owners of Martinez, such as myself, should accept the reality that he probably won't hit much more than 20 home runs. His profile is very similar to Eric Hosmer's -- great average, good runs, and RBI's, mediocre power, and a handful of steals. That is still a valuable player and a bargain for where he was drafted. By every Statcast measure, he has been a bit unlucky. I expect better results in the near future.
  10. All the evidence? COMPLETE fluke? Last year's numbers were the result of clear improvements across a number of areas. He earned his success last season. But concerning this year's evidence, consider this..... Among qualified hitters, Smoak's SwStr% is 27th (6.8%), right between contact professionals Ender Inciarte and Cesar Hernandez. His O-Swing% is 6th at a minuscule 18.0%. These numbers are clear improvements from last season's (8.9% and 25.8%), which were major improvements themselves from 2016. The plate discipline numbers are the most trustworthy at this point in the season. We need are larger sample size to fully believe everything else. But it appears he is taking his good approach at the plate to another level. On the down side, it does appear that the hard contact% is down (although average exit velocity is up by more than 3 mph), as is his launch angle. But all in all, based on improvements in plate discipline, I'm going to exercise patience with Smoak.
  11. He has not struck out yet. Not sure about today's game, but as of yesterday's, he hadn't even swung and missed. The stats will come.
  12. Honestly, this is exactly how I described Junis to my dad when we were researching for our drafts a couple months ago. I was watching Junis's highlights from last season and was blown away by how much his stuff looks like Kluber's. So I did a little research. According to fangraphs, among SPs who threw 80 innings or more, Junis's slider ranked 4th in horizontal movement with 7.7 inches of break. One spot above him with 7.8 inches of break? The Klubot.
  13. I haven't seen any highlights of Pham today. Anyone see his at bats today and could give us a scouting report? The bottom line sure looks a lot better. 2 for 3 with 2 walks and no strikeouts...2 runs scored and a SB. Still have some trades involving Pham in the works, but not feeling quite so desperate to trade him. Glad to see him show some life today.
  14. I appreciate your spirited reply. Part of the reason I posted this was to be talked off the ledge by people smarter than myself. The reason I posted the numbers from the previous seasons is to provide context for this year's numbers...not to imply that all the sets of data are of equal weight. I'm always trying to be ahead of the curve when it comes to players of decreasing value. Last season, I traded Jon Lester in early April because of his velocity drop before it became widely recognized that he was no longer an elite pitcher. I don't want to lose significant value from any draft pick. If Pham's eyes are truly a problem, I could be left with a player that is barely rosterable if I don't move him soon. Better to pull the plug too soon than too late in these types of situations, in my humble opinion.
  15. I should also add, today's game against Matz should tell us a lot. Last season, Matz couldn't get a SwStr to save his life. If Pham can't hit Matz....yikes.