SpartyOn4

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  1. Ross Stripling 2019 Outlook

    Yeah, that’s still the situation. Buehler will obviously be there, and Kershaw if he stays. Hill probably starts the year in the rotation but he’ll be 39 and with his injury history who knows how long he can hang on. Stripling, Wood and Maeda will all be back. Ryu is a free agent, no idea if they’ll keep him. Dennis Santana and Caleb Ferguson could get in the mix too, and there’s more young arms in the pipeline. I feel like he pitched too well not to have a spot but the way the Dodgers handled him down the stretch was not encouraging. It’s a situation that might remain unclear until after fantasy drafts.
  2. IMO one of the more interesting players to look at for next season. The upside is an ace, the downside is a mediocre long reliever, and I really have no idea which is more likely. The good: From May 6 when he entered the rotation until the all-star break, Stripling was 8-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts. He struck out 89 and walked only 7 in 76 IP. All the advanced stats backed up what he was doing. He had a 2.50 FIP and 2.44 xFIP. He legitimately pitched like an ace for 2 months. Even his late-season struggles look like bad luck statistically. He had a 2.99 xFIP on the year. Statcast gave him a .263 xwOBA, 41 points lower than his actual .304 wOBA. There is a lot to like in those numbers, and a lot of reason to believe that Stripling can be one of the best SP in baseball in 2019. But... The bad: Stripling had a 6.41 ERA in 26.2 IP after the all-star break. The numbers suggest some bad luck on HR/FB, but those homers were more likely the result of tipping pitches. Stripling also had two stints on the DL during that time, and was left off the playoff roster entirely. It's not clear the Dodgers believe in him, and if they don't, why should we? They have plenty of other options for the rotation in 2019 and plenty of $$ to get more if they want. No guarantee Stripling is even a starter next year, much less an elite one. And of course, Stripling did absolutely nothing prior to 2018 that suggested high-end potential, and he turns 29 next month. Maybe that was his fleeting moment of glory. This Fangraphs article gives him an early ADP of 154.9, with a pretty broad range. Obviously could go up or down as we see what the Dodgers do in the offseason. So where would you draft Ross Stripling? Is he a sneaky ace who will win his owners leagues? Just a late flier? A fluke to be avoided entirely?
  3. 2019 First Rounders Discussion

    I'm guessing nobody bothered to read the intro to that Fangraphs article and just skipped to the list. It's an attempt to model ADP using historical trends and regression analysis, and is in no way intended to be perfectly accurate. Note this quote:
  4. Didi Gregorius 2018 Outlook

    Yeah that's definitely an interesting wrinkle. If he had signed an extension during the season, the Yankees would almost certainly just be looking at a stopgap for 2019 and then go forward with Didi. And they still might do that, but his FA coming up soon increases the likelihood they move on and make a play for Machado.
  5. Didi Gregorius 2018 Outlook

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jay_jaffe/status/1050791346628452352 This chart of infielders who have had TJ suggests about a 9-month timetable which would put his return right around the all-star break. Best case (Tony Womack) was 6 months which would put him back in April. Worst case he misses the whole season. So it’s very much up in the air.
  6. Ross Stripling 2018 Outlook

    Stripling was tipping pitches 'big time' This actually makes a lot of sense looking at his 2nd half stats. His K/BB and xFIP were still decent, but he gave up a ton of homers and doubles. On a lot of those the batters may have known what was coming. If he's fixed it, maybe we'll see the guy who dominated midseason again in 2019.
  7. 2019 Draft Strategy

    The use of openers could actually fix the wins category. Look at Ryan Yarbrough this year. He won 16 games. Only 2 came as a starter, and he only pitched 5 or more IP in 7 of them. While most of us were banging our heads against the wall watching our SPs get pulled with 5 run leads after 4 innings and 80 pitches, Yarbrough got most of his wins in 3-4 IP outings. So targeting pitchers on teams more likely to use an opener could be beneficial. Of course it could be an issue if your league uses SP/RP distinctions. I usually play in leagues that just have P slots.
  8. 2019 Offseason Closer Thread

    Jose Alvarado faced 33 batters in September and struck out 18 of them. He’s only 23 and has elite stuff. I’m not sure what the Rays bullpen will look like - the team that brought us the opener isn’t necessarily going to use a traditional closer. Alvarado picked up 8 saves this year mostly in lefty situations. Maybe that happens again, but even then he’s worth owning. If he ever were to be a full-time closer I think he could be top 5.
  9. 2019 Draft Steals

    I really like Matt Olson for next year. His statcast numbers are fantastic - 93.2 average exit velocity, >50% hard hit rate, xSLG of .527 (actual SLG of .454). I'm not sure how much I believe xSLG, but the point is he hits the ball really hard. Plus he's still only 24, and he made some small plate discipline gains this year. His overall line will probably keep his price down, but I still think the guy who went on a massive homer tear to close 2017 is in there.
  10. Jon Duplantier - ARI-SP

    Not much buzz right now. Between the injuries and mediocre performance down the stretch, 2018 was not a good year for him. Probably a good time to buy low in dynasties if you're a believer, because he won't be ranked real high and still has a lot of upside. But he still has something to prove in the minors, so I wouldn't bank on him getting to MLB until mid-2019 at the earliest.
  11. Jonathan Villar 2018 Outlook

    He’s now played 10 games at SS this season, which is huge for those of us with him in dynasty/keeper formats.
  12. 9/17 - GAME DAY THREAD

    Anyone else throw Erick Fedde tonight? Been pretty good in 2 starts since his return and now facing the Marlins. Two solid innings so far and the Nats have given him a big lead. Next start will be home against the Mets, also a decent matchup.
  13. September Closer Thread 2018

    I don't think Tampa will necessarily use a traditional closer. This is the team that brought us the opener. They do things differently down there. That said, Alvarado has been lights-out lately and should get a good chunk of the save opps, just maybe not all of them.
  14. Ross Stripling 2018 Outlook

    I think you might be forgetting someone here.
  15. Ryan Yarborough Win????

    Only the starter has to pitch 5 innings to be eligible for a win. Since Diego Castillo was technically the starter, and he only threw one inning, he was not eligible. The win is then awarded to the relief pitcher who was "most effective" in the judgment of the official scorer. In this case that was Yarborough.