StifleTower2

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  1. LeBron James 2018-19 Season Thread

    I think someone’s numbers are getting eviscerated and most Lakers fans are much too optimistic. LeBron generally handles the ball and neither Rondo nor Ball can shoot. They can’t all average 7+ apg. So there’s talk of LeBron playing offball and even the 5 in a so-called “death lineup”. Does that mean he averages more rebounds and fewer assists? If so that lowers his value a bit. His st3cks are already declining. I could see him averaging 25/8/4 with 2 threes/1+ spg/.6+ bpg with good FG and poor FT/To per usual. That would keep him in the first round but toward the turn. Then you have to ask yourself the ancillary questions: how is the Lakers playoff schedule, how likely is LeBron to have rest days, will they be fighting for a playoff spot? Personally I think they will be fighting for a playoff spot but LeBron has rest days as they’re unlikely to be looking to compete this year.
  2. Larry Nance Jr. 2018 Outlook

    I really like him. Reminds me of Thad Young in terms of fantasy profile. Both of them are underrated. I think he has upside as well particularly if he is given minutes. Really impressed me with the “eye test” last season, I thought he was their best big at times. I don’t know whether to call him a sleeper, a breakout candidate, or something more reliable. As stated above I think he’s a lock for 10/8 with 1.5 spg, which would be good for top 75 value, and I think he has potential for more.
  3. 2018-2019 Breakout Candidates

    Meh he was a breakout candidate last year and he performed fairly well although he got injured. I think we pretty much know what he can do at this point: 17ppg/3 apg/3 rpg with 2 3pg/1spg. I think he’s a lock to be top 75 provided that he stays healthy, but injuries are a concern. I think he will surpass his ADP but it’s hard to call him a breakout/sleeper when his upside probably isn’t top 50 given his fantasy profile (lacks stocks and only medium rebounds/assists for a guard) and he has vast injury history.
  4. 2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

    The 9th is medium risk/high reward as there are still good players available there. The 13th, why not? I’d roll the dice there.
  5. Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

    Theoretically there’s a point where it would no longer make sense to bid on AD. The question is are you willing to find out where the stopping point is for me? You may get stuck with a $99 AD bid.
  6. 2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

    I wouldn’t consider them sleepers in redraft because in roto you’re maybe getting 25% of the games from them. Even then they’re not a lock to produce their typical value. If you would pay $50 for them if they were healthy then I would only pay $12 or so now. In H2H they could either be worth more or less than that. If they’re playing during the fantasy playoffs then assuming you make the playoffs carrying them then they would be worth a lot more than that. But if they miss most of the season then have significant rest days during the fantasy playoffs then they’re basically useless. You also have to take into consideration that even if you have an IR you have to carry them the entire season. There’s a huge opportunity cost there if anyone else on your roster gets injured. So while I’m willing to roll the dice for $12 or so in auctions I’m not willing to pay much more. In theory this translates into something like an 8th round pick in snake. But in reality there are still solid players in that round who are safer picks as well as good younger players with more upside. Now if they fall to the 9th and 13th as you stated sure maybe I’ll roll the dice particularly if there’s no one else I like there. But I wouldn’t consider it a sleeper pick, rather I’d consider it akin to chasing a gut shot. I’m willing to call there with good implied odds because if you hit it could be a difference maker but I’m assuming it’s a long shot to pay off. I’m ok with that because if I hit it could be a difference maker and if I miss (which I probably will) I still have a reasonable chance of competing if the cost wasn’t too high. I remember picking IT2 around the 9th/10th last year in a lot of leagues and getting burnt so that might have something to do with my rationale. The real question is where do you draft them in dynasty? I’d say the second round but I really hate burning a pick that early and basically punting the first year.
  7. Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

    I remember a few years ago TOAA bid over $100 for him in one of our leagues. He was super hyped back then. That season was a let down and he had a couple of seasons in which he missed games. But I think that’s behind him and he’s the best fantasy player by far. Let’s put it this way: the only leagues I cashed last season were leagues in which I had him. How much am I willing to bid? As much as it takes. Finally, drafting first in a snake dynasty is just unfair. The person who takes him is a lock to cash for years to come unless he drafts poorly the rest of the draft or AD gets injured.
  8. Anthony Davis Season Outlook 2018-2019

    I agree and I think metrics support that conclusion. The difference between Harden and AD is .33 standard deviations which is about difference between Harden and players on the turn of the 1st/2nd. Actually if I could gaurantee they would play 75 games and assuming I wasn’t punting FG/To I would take Curry or Durant over Harden. This is one reason why I hate snake. I would much rather have AD and whoever is available at 24 than the best other combination of a first/second that I can find (assuming it’s roto and I’m not punting anything). To make things even more unfair you then get to select first in the third as well! If it’s H2H you can draft Harden and punt To or draft LBJ/Giannis and Drummond and punt FT. Assuming you’re punting FT Drummond is probably the closest you’ll get to AD. He’s close in stocks and he might add .6 threes this year. Drummond gets more rebounds too. The biggest downside other than punting FT is AD gets almost twice the points. So considering you need to punt Ft and spend a second round pick to get even a reasonable approximation of AD who isn’t nearly as good in points I’d say picking first in snake is an unfair start which is why I tend to avoid it.
  9. Rotoworld Summer H2H Mock Draft

    Will be interesting to see who gets second.
  10. 2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

    He’s not expected to score a lot on that team and Jokic cuts into his assists but there’s no reason for his stocks to decline other than age. I agree that 14/7 with 2 assists, 1.2 spg /1.2 3pg/.8 bpg is not out of the question. His percentages are typically poor which depresses his value. I’d expect him to be top 75 for a couple more years.
  11. Bold Predictions for the 2018-2019 Season

    Not so bold but I agree.
  12. Russell Westbrook 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    In theory you could win a H2H league punting FOUR categories provided that: 1) you really were entrenched in winning the other five; 2) you didn’t have any injuries in the playoff, rest days, etc that swung a cat against you; 3) the regular season structure was set up to allow a team with 55% win percentage to even make the playoffs. That being said, I still don’t like Westbrook in the firs round. He is elite in the three big categories and steals but that’s just four categories. He looks better than he really is because he puts up big numbers in the popcorn stats but according to metrics he’s a second round player. There’s other players I would rather have in the first. Nevertheless there are some circumstance that would lead me to drafting him such as him being affordable in auction.
  13. Myles Turner 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    Umm...if you need an efficient point guard don’t draft CP3 in the second I think you can draft Collison later
  14. Myles Turner 2018-2019 Season Outlook

    I’m somewhere between you two. He averaged 1.2 bpg on 20 mpg. If you assume he plays 30 mpg that translates into 1.8 bpg. Moreover, he’s a second year player so I think it’s rational to expect some improvement. Last year he didn’t start for most of the year and he was also a rookie. That said I don’t think 2 bpg is his floor, I think it’s more like his ceiling. It’s very difficult for players to get over 2 bpg and it took even Stifle 3 years to get to that level. My expectation is 12/8 with 2 blocks and excellent efficiency. That means he’s ahead of the median in 5 categories which translates into being top 75. I drafted him around there in the roto mock and I think that’s fair value. None of the centers you mentioned are good comps. Whiteside, Nurk, and Adams are mostly punt FT guys and if I was punting I would pick them otherwise I like Allen more. Jval is a competent center for roto as a place holder, center2. He doesn’t provide anything sexy in terms of counting stats but doesn’t hurt you anywhere. Allen is much more valuable than him as he projects to be similar as Jval except that he projects to average 3x the median in blocks which is significantly more than Jval. Even if Allen doesn’t improve he still blocked more shots last year than Jval. People have a tendency to undervalue blocks as getting even 1.8 bpg is 3x the median and getting 3x the median in any cat is huge. Then there’s the issue of some people play dynasty when I think you’re referencing redraft. I agree that I wouldn’t go near Allen in the 5th in redraft as there’s simply players I would rather have. But in dynasty everything changes. I’m still not inclined to pick Allen in the 5th round of dynasty drafts as I tend to go for win now but if I saw someone else do it I wouldn’t be surprised.
  15. 2018-19 Sleepers and Busts

    I’m not drafting Wall in the second, that’s for sure. His injury history is scary and frankly he’s not that good of a fantasy player. We have a long history of him being a 3 cat punt, hoping he improves significantly at this point in his career is very optimistic. I do think he produces counting stats in H2H so if you get good value out of him eg late third/early fourth then he might be worth a gamble in some builds.