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Everything posted by StifleTower2

  1. I also expect Horford's line to decline slightly re the popcorn stats, especially assists if you look at the preseason. However, that wasn't why you drafted him anyway. You draft him for an efficient source of blocks/threes, the assists were a bonus. No matter what team he has been on, regardless of usage, he has always been 1.1 blocks or above and his threes have has been either 1.1 or 1.3. Given that he is going to be more of a stretch four, I think his rebounds and FG will drop a little, but threes will go up. I think this is more likely: 12/6/3 with 1.3 blocks, 1.3 threes, and .8 steals .500/.820/1.5 TO. If you're going strictly off BBM that will still be a top 50 player, any player who can get a block and a three, and shoot 50/80+ will always finish high on the player rater due to scarcity of blocks and efficiency. Now if you personally don't appreciate that skillset for whatever reason, that's fine. He will be top 50 in 9 cat roto.
  2. Anyway your reasoning is completely backward. You don’t come into a draft punting threes but if you pick BPA the first few picks yet don’t have threes by then you may as well give up threes (by your own reasoning). Threes is the least scarce cat yet some of the best players don’t hit threes. Suppose you drafted AD or Giannis first. With AD you could go punt assists. With Giannis punt FT. However you could also punt threes. If you take AD you want to build around his strengths, which is basically anything except assists and threes. So you took AD and the next two rounds you got Turner and LMA. Now your team is killing efficiency, blocks, rebounds. Then you take Shai bc you need his steals and he’s Pg eligible, which you’ll need even when punting assists. Now you need a wing. You’re too far behind in threes to make it up, in your own words bc you said if you don’t fill up in guards who hit threes you’re sunk. But now DeRozan is available. You can take his 21/6/6 line with 1.2 steals and .4 blocks. Keep your points, rebounds up. Get a cheap FT% anchor. Maybe only be semi-punting assists if you can find some later. At that point punting would be trivial. The fact that I have to explain punting to you, the fact that you seem to think punting is more common in roto, and your trigger finger on ad hominem leads me to believe you have 0 roto experience and play 1 friends and family H2H league.
  3. Lol I made 7k net last year playing both H2H and roto. I have a 60% match win rate in H2H in $500 buy in leagues. 60% isn’t that impressive except its in the highest stakes. I wouldn’t post all that except I knew ad hominem was coming and it came. For our next posts how about we both post our league safe accounts and yahoo profiles (names redacted). Ready?
  4. People don’t generally want to punt categories in roto but are generally more willing to do so in H2H. Many people are just looking for 6 cats in H2H they are trying to win each week so punting threes is trivial. Not to mention having one wing that doesn’t hit threes isn’t necessarily damning. But if you’re playing H2H leagues and you don’t want to draft DeRozan bc you want to be strong in threes that’s your prerogative.
  5. Well then if it’s H2H then you should be even more inclined to punt threes.
  6. That’s just way too specific. You can win a roto league punting threes. You can win one being mediocre in the counting stats while being elite in efficiency. You can win being slightly below average in threes. Anything that adds up to 75+ Roto points in a 12 teamer, in any configuration.
  7. Punt threes or put him at the the SF slot if it makes you feel better.
  8. DeRozan went in the 60s in the round mound of roto. At that point it’s just absurd. He has second round counting stats, average stocks (dunno why he’s perceived as having low stocks by the guy above), elite efficiency. As he doesn’t shoot threes his FG is a lot higher than other shooting guards would have on similar volume, his FT impact is top 10, and his TO are about average. I would have taken him and just punted threes. Brogdon fell instead who I think will have almost as much counting stats, will be more efficient, and not threes. But I’d consider DeRozan top 50 in 9 cat roto. Higher if you’re already close to punting. I had him as my fourth keeper in a roto league that won last year. Aside from that I rarely draft him. Not really a target but meh.
  9. Philly big favorites to win the east imo. Not only were they one shot away from beating the eventual champions, but they got better. Replaced Butler, who wasn’t a good fit with JRich, lower usage 3 and D guy who should get along better with the team. But they also added low usage god Horford with his brilliant defense/passing/versatility. But now this guy...put him on the opponent’s best wing, or just free safety harass their offense. Could be an X factor even in 20 mpg.
  10. This is precisely the sort of package that I mentioned in the offseason. CP3 is almost a negative asset at this point given his contract. However, he can push a playoff team over the top and win now. If the Thunder also include a first round pick then that's a steal. There's no need to have Augustin if you have CP3. Fournier is trash. Gordon hasn't really developed as one might hope. Not giving up too much to get him, even for a rental. Have fun trying to develop Gordon. The Thunder do it obviously just to dump a contract.
  11. Conley is a better FT anchor than DeRozan. Conley=.845 of 5.8 attempts. DeRozan is .831 of 5.7 attempts.
  12. Has to be some sort of record for total stocks for a rookie in preseason.
  13. I'd move off of this position. It's not so much the bad preseason, it's that they are using stretch lineups. Previously Favors was a player with a chronic knee condition, who was worth gambling on due to top 50 upside, and great opportunity. Take that opportunity away and he's just another Allen or Zeller.
  14. Usage refers to the portion of the possession a player uses for his team, which either results in a turnover or a shot. People think it includes assists, but traditionally it doesn't. If you assist someone then that becomes their usage. It has to equal up to 100%, because there are 5x players on the court, the league average has to be 20%. The only way it doesn't is if people are using the term contrary to its academic usage.
  15. Somehow I own Maxi Kleber more than any other player (7 leagues). Didn't realize that. He's just been a guy who I take at the end of drafts as I believe he can be a 12/6/1/1 player. Across the board efficiency. Wouldn't be surprised if he finished top 75 in 9 cat roto.
  16. Oh, he can. Whether or not he does is a different story.
  17. I think he’s going to be a little better than last year because he’s never really been unleashed. Granted his profile is pretty basic, a three point specialist, and he is capped by that role. But he’s an absolutely electric scorer who I’ve seen on multiple occasions hit a shot within twenty seconds of hitting the floor and score 7 points in like two minutes. Has no fear and isn’t just a catch and shoot guy, can create for himself, which is huge for a 6th man. He also has some helpful periphery, gets over a steal per game, almost a 90% foul shooter, really low TO for his usage bc he gets the ball out of his hands so quickly. I think 18 points, 3 threes with a steal is achievable. No assists bc he never looks to pass. 41/89 efficiency, sub 1.5 TO. I think he has a chance at Top 75 and is a lock for top 100.
  18. This line is the last time he got over 30mpg: 17/14 with 2.1 blocks, .7 steals. 56%/63% with 2 TO. I think the Blazers will play Collins more than people think and Whiteside will see around 28 mpg. So maybe 14/12 with 2 blocks, .7 steals. That would put him around Capela territory for counting stats. However, in non-punt builds he will absolutely murder your FT%. I think he's going to end up a 2nd rounder in punt FT%. Otherwise, it's one of those situations in which its difficult to analyze his value. I've seen people draft him in roto in non-punt builds. Ok, so you're automatically signing up for 1-2 points in FT%. Most people who draft him are hoping he can get that back up to his career levels. Not to mention he's a 3 cat guy, no statistical diversity. He's like Adams. 2nd round pick if you're punting FT%...but a real drag if you're not...but if you are punting FT% you likely already have your bigs. There's a wide range of possible value and outcomes for the guy so he entails quite a bit of risk.
  19. Well I think they’re both outliers lol. .411 was the worst since his first year in Toronto and .464 was his best. .427 seems the mode.
  20. That’s all fine, except I disagree with the FG. .411 was an outlier for him due to shooting more threes with others getting more usage than usual. I think 19/7/5 with 3 threes, 1.3 steals, .5 blocks 43/83 with 3 TOs. He does what a guard needs to do to get value: assists/steals and hit threes. Good out of position stats. Is really dragged down by FG/To only. Look at Kemba, Holiday types. Lowry is a little low on points but gets more assists and threes. Stocks are close to Holiday level and well above Kemba. All of them are bad on To, Kemba is bad on FG, Holiday has relatively low FT. He’s in the league of these guys and they are top 20.
  21. Lowry isn’t turning 34 until March but that’s a small point.
  22. I second Capela and add some more: LMA, Conley, Otto, Tobias. Basically anyone who you can get for under $30 in auction, is old and thus undervalued, and has top 35 upside. Some later ones. Ingles: coming off the bench might actually be good for him. 12/6/5 with 2.4 threes and 1.2 steals. Not many players past 75 who can get 5+ assists and 1.2 steals, along with the threes. He’s been the most durable player the past three years and the Jazz have a great playoff schedule. Smart: I think he’s going to have a great assists/steals/threes year. 12/5/5 with 2 steals and 2 threes. Zeller: 13/9/3/1/1 potential on elite efficiency. Decent preseason. No competition for minutes. Definitely above guys in a timeshare such as Allen, Dedmon, etc. Roll the dice and drop if he gets hurt.