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Everything posted by StifleTower2

  1. If it’s H2H I’m paying more attention to playoff schedule and health than I’ve done in the past, so it’s too early to tell. Otherwise, Nikola. And I don’t mean Jokic.
  2. Play roto. Don't play H2H. Play auction. Don't play snake. Same ole lessons.
  3. His 0 games played during the first week of H2H playoffs cost me 2 leagues. But I'll forgive him if his 5 (4) game week leads me to the title!
  4. No complaints. In every league in which I drafted AD I am either still in the playoffs in H2H or first in my rotoleagues.
  5. I am a Jazz fan, and disagreed with them at the time, but per usual the Jazz front office rarely makes mistakes. They let Millsap/Jefferson walk for nothing bc they wanted to develop Gobert/Favors. The didn't bother trading them bc they didn't want to take on "bad money". They believed anyone they could get for Millsap/Jefferson would be a mediocre player who they wouldn't be rostering in five years. So rather than doing that, they just let them leave. At the time, hardly anyone knew about Gobert so it seemed a bad move. How does it seem now? Don't answer-it was a rhetorical question. There's a reason why the Jazz consistently put a good team on the floor despite being one of the poorest ownership groups in a relatively small city most NBA players don't want to live in.
  6. If your trade deadline isn't over I'd try to package Teague + someone else for a top 50 player and pick up Olynyk and Marcus Morris. Otherwise I'd just pick up Olynyk. He's the best player on your ww by far and it isn't close imo.
  7. ATM in the abstract Cedi is better but only you know what stats you’re trying to prevent your opponent from getting.
  8. I’ve seen it work dozens of times. If that’s not your thing, fine. To say it will never work is hyperbolic.
  9. Agreed. Not to mention the trade deadline has passed in half of my leagues.
  10. I agree but I’d ask for a little more. Horford has been second round value on the season and first for a while. If I was to sell my Horford it would be something like my Horford plus top 75 player for Jokic or something like that. The problem with a like Horford who is underrated and gets his value from multi-cat production instead of popcorn stats is that you rarely get his actual value back in a trade.
  11. Filter by last two weeks not by season long. I would still prefer Holiday in roto because people don’t realize how harmful Young FG/To is. In H2H just punt FG/To and Young is a first round player.
  12. I’m assuming he’s a little rusty due to returning from injury. Granted it wasn’t a lower body injury so there’s no physical reason for it. Faried might impact him a little but I think Capela will improve.
  13. If you’re going to get someone like Lauri out of it at least get the other guy to give you his drop (or better). I’m ok with the trade in the abstract as Randle is ranked pretty low in 9 cat despite his obvious contributions. The problem with Lauri is that the bulls also have a terrible P.O. schedule and also have nothing to play for. It’s a lateral move. If I’m going to move AD it’s going to be to lower risk, this is the same risk but basically lower upside.
  14. The only one I'd actually consider is LBJ and Vuc, the others don't provide enough current value to compensate you for the loss in future value. Then it depends exactly on how you value money today versus the future, what the prize distribution is in your league, and how long you plan on being in the league. If it's a polarized prize distribution where first is significantly more than 2nd or 3rd then I might consider pulling the trigger. Unlike some I think Vuc will be a top 25 value next year, I think there's a good chance he stays in Orlando and if not, I still think he can remain top 25 value as people forget he's been top 25 even before this year. LeBron will probably give you 3 good years of top 15 value. If it's your main league and plan on staying forever then I wouldn't do it. But if you plan on leaving within three years anyway then yeah I'd gun for the championship this year then try to dump off LeBron before he gets too old.
  15. I understand what you're saying. One league was a dynasty league so I'm not even going to debate that trade...this year is irrelevant, although it may have cost me some cash in the short term. The other was a league where everyone I gave up was a risk as well: Irving, Gasol, and Mirotic for AD and Green. Actually, my team has been better since the trade as Irving/Gasol/Mirotic owners are getting very little out of them. Gasol/Mirotic have been mediocre in their new home and similarly to AD, I don't think Irving plays more than 2 games per week during the fantasy playoffs. That said, it was after AD announced wanting to be traded, but before the trade deadline. I wouldn't make that trade now. As for the actual issue of his playing time idk. It seems as if we're talking in circles. As you mentioned, H2H versus roto is very different, as I'm first in a roto league where I have AD. H2H who knows? I don't think he will be "hard shutdown". I don't think they will ever risk ire from the league and negative publicity by announcing a shutdown. Though I agree with you that he will sit back-to-backs (I assumed everyone thought this), will play no more than 25 mpg (though he could play fewer minutes), and they will be looking to sit him for any minor injuries. Still, it's better than a hard shutdown. If I was to give this situation a letter grade for AD owners it would be a D, but that beats an F. I thought he could have Jokish light value on 25 mpg but that's clearly not the case. I think something like 16/8/3 with two stocks on 50/80 shooting and under 2 is achievable. That's still Horford territory.
  16. They said he would play reduced minutes AND miss back-to-backs and it's likely that they will just sit him over any minor injury. I don't think it required brilliant powers of induction to figure that out.
  17. That's a dumb analogy that is very easy to poke holes in. You assume that when shopping that deals get better with time, or if you shop more you'll eventually discover a better deal. The reality is that sometimes the first deal is the best deal and it can be time sensitive. Imagine going to a government car auction. You're looking for a Nissan Altima but you have no control over what was seized. To your surprise the first car up is a 2018 Nissan Altima! The high bid is 10K, a steal! But you pass it up because you don't want to buy the first car that comes along. Someone else bids, you lose, and a deal like that never comes along again. Anyway, I'm not referring to the trade and I think that argument is tired. I'm referring to how they've run their team in totality. They were able to put together some good pieces, but they've made more bad decisions than good since acquiring AD. They only have themselves to blame and being a small market is no excuse.
  18. I think using the small market excuse is an easy excuse to justify running teams poorly. While New Orleans isn't an ideal location, I'd still probably live there over Utah or Milwaukee. Actually, SLC might be the least desirable location in the NBA, and their ownership group is one of the poorest, yet they consistently put a good team onto the floor. Since I've been alive they've missed the playoffs only a few times and almost had two titles (f--- Michael Jordan). SA is also a small market and has the highest regular season win percentage in NBA history. NYC/Brooklyn is the biggest market and they've been consistently a laughing stock for as long as I can remember. Let's face it, the Pels front office blew it. There is no justification. Period.
  19. That was always the nothing has changed.
  20. I agree. The best deal if you’re trading for AD would be to say look 👀 AD is a lot of risk so I need your second best player too plus a throw-in. Then offer your 2,3,4 round players preferably if they’re also risky. That way you’re exchanging risk and picking up AD in the process. There was a time when the AD owners were panicked enough that’s you could have done that but the time is gone. Also, the trade deadline is over in many of my leagues.
  21. I wouldn’t make a bet like that due to variance in any particular sample size. But I’d put the over/under of his averages at 18/9 plus elite stocks and 50/80 under 2 TO for efficiency.
  22. The problem is that we won’t know until the end of the season whether it was an outlier or the first evidence of a new trend.
  23. You could be right, we don't know, but I'm inclined to believe he can maintain first round production even with capped minutes. I traded for him in one keeper league and I am not even going there bc I believe if you can obtain the #1 fantasy player in a keeper league it's worth almost any price. Pertaining to the one redraft league...meh. I traded my Irving, Mirotic, and Gasol for AD and Green after the announcement of his trade request but prior to the ASB. At that point I thought there was a 50/50 chance he would be traded to the Lakers and if he wasn't then there was a 50/50 chance he would play for the Pelicans. In sum, I thought there was a 75%+ of him playing somewhere. We missed on the Lakers, but we semi-hit on the Pels as he's going to play with a minutes restriction. As for my side of the trade, I intentionally gave up guys whom I also had concerns with so the risk would even out. If AD was shutdown it would stand to reason that Mirotic would be as well, or traded. He just recently returning from injury and although it's still early his outlook isn't good. He and Green probably balance out. Gasol appears to be in for a less role. Irving will probably play fewer games than AD this season. If Irving/Gasol are playing a similar amount of games to AD then yes I'd rather have AD. Either way it seems like a neutral EV move...sometimes there's simply nothing you can do. The thing is I don't know many people who tried to buy AD during this time period and most people thought I offered an absurdly rich package. So if I represent the absolute most people were willing to offer for AD and I broke even then it stands to reason that people who bought him for less are satisfied and those who sold low got ripped off.
  24. That’s a bizarre sample size to deliberately cherry pick, as evidenced by the fact that Bertrans was 37th. I could produce a litany of other outliers during that time but it would be a waste of time. Of the last two weeks one week was the all-star game and he only played four games. One was a game where he played hardly at all. Of the other three he had one great game, one mediocre game, and one poor game. A lot of that was due to controversy and instability. If the rotation stabilizes even if it means fewer minutes he can easily retain first round value.
  25. I agree, it's hard to say. I was basically just extrapolating those numbers from his season averages then reducing the minutes to 20. I don't think people fully comprehend that his zscore was more than twice that of Jokic's on the season. Yes, his usage could be down, but that might have been a temporary thing that the team worked on. There's also the issue of a s--- PO schedule. However, the fewer minutes a player plays, they have a tendency to make that time more impactful on a per minute basis. We will see.