Fierylady

Members
  • Content Count

    205
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

155 Excellent

About Fierylady

  • Rank
    Rookie

Previous Fields

  • Add to Mailing List?
    No

Recent Profile Visitors

The recent visitors block is disabled and is not being shown to other users.

  1. While I agree with this theoretically (don’t panic on McDonald yet), the numbers re: Washington and Moncrief are a little misleading. Washington might have only caught 2 out of 6 but they were almost all on deep routes and only 2 were catchable, maybe 3. Ben straight overthrew him 3 times and Washington had no shot (on one of those - a Ben pick - Collinsworth said Washington should have run a better route but I’m not sure I agree, Ben threw it where he was headed and had to let it go before he knew for sure). Moncrief on the other hand dropped lots of catchable balls and generally shrunk from the moment. I wouldn’t be hyped about either but I’d feel much better about Washington than Moncrief, though I’d like to see him start to run something other than deep routes.
  2. There’s only one reason, but it’s a strong one: rookie TEs never do anything in fantasy. Precedent matters. But like you said, so does reacting to what you see. And there are exceptions to every rule. Evan Engram was one himself, though as most would point out that was a unique situation with the rest of the pass-catchers going down with injury. But maybe Hock’s a unique situation too? Maybe he’s just so talented he demands targets? Maybe Stafford already trusts him more than any other Lions pass-catcher? Who knows, but he’s absolutely someone worth keeping an eye on.
  3. Heh, no, of course not. And that’s not what I meant to say, anyway. Every RB gets taken off script, even Bell in this same offense. My point was that once Conner established his fit and usage in this offense he was as reliably used as any other RB in the league, and his fluctuation in carries could be explained by extenuating circumstances. Game script was only a minor one, and he still managed to put up good fantasy games.
  4. This requires a deeper dive to understand (the carry numbers). The KC game in week 2 the Chiefs came out and dog-stomped them, the script got away quick (thankfully he was able to contribute something via his pass-catching, a pleasant surprise). The Tampa and Baltimore game ended with people saying, give the ball to James Conner more, so they did, and from that point forward it looked like Conner was gonna give us a season every bit as good as any of Bell’s. Until the concussion against Carolina. Everyone forgets that one cause he kept playing but it was obvious it bothered him (and it looked terrible on replay). Frankly I was surprised he played the next week against Jax and I thought he looked slow and sluggish, and I also think the coaching staff was watching him closely and gave him fewer carries because of it. He was vastly improved by the Denver game, but that one got away from the Steelers as well script-wise (and Denver was hot). And then the Chargers where he was on his way to a very good game until the ankle injury. Then the last game against Cincy coming back from injury. I thought, over the first half of the season, he looked like one of the best RBs in the league (he was RB3 at the time of his concussion, so it’s not like he’s not capable of being elite). I think he’s far more talented than everyone else seems to think, and I was especially pleased by his pass-catching skills. The ‘he’s got meh talent’ isn’t an argument I can buy. Now the Samuels, sharing stuff gives me pause, though I’m not sure having Samuels college RB coach is much of a hindrance to Conner (he was as much a TE as a RB in college and never had more than 78 carries), but there’s no doubt he looks good when he gets a chance.
  5. Ty is faster than Kerryon, but he is not more explosive. At the combine his explosion metrics tested as elite; his vert of 40-inches was tied for second-best amongst RBs and his broad jump was 3rd. And that explosion informs his patient running style, where he follows his blockers looking for a hole, then blasts through it when he sees it. I think he’s one of the most talented guys at actually being a running back in the whole league.
  6. He’s about the only Indy player who might still have value despite the Luck retirement. Doyle was good with Brissett two years ago but now there’s more competition at TE, the WRs obviously all take hits. But I think there’s a decent possibility we see some of Bill Simmons’s classic Ewing Theory play out. Literally everyone thinks they’re gonna suck without Luck, it’s not hard to envision the locker room rallying around that. Brissett is unlikely to be the same, bad player he was two years ago, their offensive line is excellent, their defense is much improved, and it’s not like Reich suddenly forgot how to coach. I think his adjustment will be to focus more on the running game and if the Colts can find their way to 9-7/8-8/7-9 - and I think they can - it should be a viable fantasy running game.
  7. But see, that’s just it... this is more narrative. Not only is Kerryon not a bad pass-blocking back, from weeks 6-10 last year, PFF gave him a pass-blocking score of 91.1, which was the best in the league (he got hurt week 11). Sure, PFF, grain of salt, but whether he was actually the best in the league or not hardly matters, what matters is that he was very, very good. I will admit that he started slowly - as most rookies do - before improving dramatically, and the Lions beat writers tend to point out when he misses a block in training camp (as they did last year), but then it churns through the NFL media machine and a missed assignment suddenly becomes ‘struggles’, and then CJ Anderson’s in because of these struggles, and then, well, you get the idea. I’ll take the actual game performances myself.
  8. This is hopefully going to create value for Kerryon. The only thing affecting his value right now (both positively and negatively) is narrative. CJ’s playing a lot in the preseason, let’s read into that. Ty Johnson catches passes, let’s read into that. O-lineman gets hurt, let’s read into that. In reality, very little has changed. Irrespective of an injury to one of his o-lineman, his floor was always low. When his price skyrocketed I missed him everywhere, it was based on a false narrative, hollered by pundits. That low floor is being hammered of late, no reason to go into it, except to say that it has always been there and was being glossed over by the hype. Now we’re starting to 180 and his ceiling is being overlooked by the fade brigade. Because all the reasons everyone liked him before are still there, preseason be damned. The one thing we haven’t seen in the preseason is Kerryon knifing through a defense over and over again. If we had it would likely temper the fade brigade. And I expect us to see it again starting week one. As for his usage, I don’t know. That has always been the question lowering his floor and his ceiling. But it’s possible Ty Johnson sees less than 5 snaps/game as thousands of preseason darlings have before, and it’s possible Kerryon catches 70 passes, and it’s possible he scores 10+ TDs. All of these things are still possible and in fact just as likely as they were 3 weeks ago, regardless of the narrative shifts over the preseason.
  9. I have 100% ownership of Darwin Thompson in best ball, most of the time getting him in the last round or three. I expect that to change from here on out. In fact I’ve already missed him in one of my slow drafts that hasn’t finished yet. He went in the 5th.
  10. We should also remember that things can change drastically from one year to the next at OL. The Colts were a historically bad offensive line before last season, then they skipped right over average-good-great to become dominant. Two years ago the Rams had a meh line that made Gurley look like crap, then they turned it around instantly. You can point to some factors as to why this happens - new players, new coaches, new scheme, etc... - but that doesn’t always work either (the Lions have invested heavily on the o-line and changed coaches too and it has yet to really pan out).
  11. That’s fair to say about DJ’s season last year, but in 2016 he was RB1 behind another terrible line... which is why everyone was so confident drafting him last year. They thought with his receiving ability he could overcome his bad line a second time. He didn’t.
  12. There’s an outcome for him out there as a WR1. He’s got that kind of talent, reminds me quite a bit of Hopkins - not as elite with his hands but plenty good enough and and probably a slightly better athlete. The question then becomes what is this Detroit offense gonna look like, and I’m shocked that everyone’s so certain what it’s gonna be even though we haven’t seen it yet, or heard any specific from the coaches. Patricia said ‘we want to be able to run the ball’, and over two months of rehash that’s turned into ‘Detroit is a run-only team.’ I for one am not so certain.
  13. Yup. I have a rule that I don’t take RBs a year off ACL injuries. They’ll be in and out of the lineup with hamstring issues all year, like Cook last year (and Guice has already had one in camp), and most guys don’t fully heal for a couple of years anyway. Sure it’s cost me a guy like Peterson now and again, but it’s served me well for the most part.
  14. Exactly, it’s a simple issue of supply and demand. As the number of QBs who throw 30+ TDs has gone up so too has the number of viable starters. Whether it’s a 6 point league or a 4 point league, the supply doesn’t waver which is why I will still wait in my 6 point leagues. It’s essentially the opposite of TE where the demand is the same but the supply is so low, it makes the guys at the top even more valuable. If there were 20 viable starting TEs too, none would go before round 5 or 6.
  15. You keep saying the Broncos’ line was ranked third last year and unlikely to improve, but when you mention they also have an oft-injured guard and a bust of a tackle... doesn’t that make it seem like there’s a pretty obvious route to improve?