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About bwarbiany

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  1. I think I know the answer, but what say you?
  2. I have Chubb and a 6.2 point lead going against Odell in full PPR. I feel okay about the odds, but it could really go either way.
  3. Are those regular-season incentives or can they be met in the playoffs? Because with the Pats, it's silly to assume he's only going to play in 15 games this year.
  4. Thanks! I wasn't too dialed in during the offseason, so not much reason to hang around. I may not do much this year, as I'm down to one league and it's the Taco-est of all Taco leagues... So there might not be much need for advice/analysis lol...
  5. Agreed 100%, and the poker analogy is perfect. In poker, you can play the odds and the opponent, but essentially the cards determine whether the outcome of any given hand goes your way. That part is blind luck. If you make better decisions over time, the luck evens out and you'll win more than you lose. But sometimes the luck doesn't work out. Last year I had a great draft, I thought. I managed to snag James Conner late after going WR/WR, and had Michael Thomas and AB as my top receivers in a PPR league and an RB1 in Conner that I grabbed in I think the 12th round. I made good waiver wire moves early in the season, and thought I was going to be in good shape. In fact, I had one of the strongest teams over the course of the entire year, tending to be in the top 2-3 spots in total points scored for most of the year. But I tended to catch my opponents on weeks they were even stronger that my team, so I ended up missing the playoffs and finishing in 9th place of 12 teams. I was happy with my draft, and disappointed with my results, despite the fact that I think my draft was good.
  6. This year, he has to report to accrue a season. So for this year, they would potentially get him fresh for a playoff run. Next year, if they franchised him, he doesn't need to report at all. There are no more "accrued" seasons. So if he decided to sit, he wouldn't be coming back for the playoffs.
  7. This year he is under his rookie contract. If he accrues a season, he will have enough seasons to qualify for free agency. At that point he can go test his worth on the open market, or the Chargers franchise tag him--which they may not be willing to do after the headache he caused this year and after Bell successfully got himself to free agency by forgoing a year on the tag. In order to accrue a season, he can't sit out all year. He has to report by early-mid November (I don't recall the exact date). So he benefits by reporting just before the deadline, by avoiding wear and tear on a "cheap" rookie contract, and getting to free agency.
  8. Exactly. In my 8-team league, I was at the turn and grabbed Fournette/Gordon. Granted, Fournette didn't exactly pan out, but I feel like what was there at the turn it made sense. In the 12-team league, I was #6 and ended up with AB in the first and M. Thomas in the second. I think they were the best options I had at the spots I was drafting. AB was better than any of the remaining RBs and in the mid-2nd, M. Thomas fell to me and was better than any of the available RBs because people went RB-heavy.
  9. I'd be more willing to reach for TE than in years past. Difference between a top-3 TE and top-12 TE is MUCH higher than difference between top-12 WR and top-24 WR. I think if you can get your RB1 and WR1 in the first two rounds, finding your TE1 next might be ideal. And if you don't get a top-3 TE by that round, might as well wait until the TE wastelands in the late rounds because they're plug and play at that point. But a top TE can get you WR1/WR2 points, whereas everyone below that elite tier is going to get you WR4/WR5 points. And there are ALWAYS some gems for RB or WR in the late rounds and even on the waiver wire, whereas gems at TE rarely pop up nor pan out. I'll still wait on QB, Def/ST and K, but I think if I can get one of the top TEs at either my 3rd or 4th round draft positions, I'd jump on it. But not Gronk. Never Mr. Glass.
  10. In my money league [12-team], I will finish this week probably within single digits of the points lead. Heck, if Josh Adams can't play tonight, I'll be the overall points leader by 0.2 points. And this is a league where top 6 make the playoffs, not top 4. And yet I'm going to finish 6-7 and just outside the playoffs.
  11. I threw out Sunday as the day at which it opened, but I think the actual best option would be that on game day for the teams involved, their players unlock. So the two teams that are playing on TNF (or Thanksgiving games, etc) unlock that day, and then the teams playing Sunday don't unlock until Sunday. Still, I think it's a solution in search of a problem. I honestly don't think it's a big enough issue to even try to fix. For as rarely as things like this happen, the people who don't get the backup can be told "you snooze, you lose."
  12. I honestly agree with him that it's not "fair". The entire point of waivers is that most critical news [injuries/etc] occurs during the games on Sunday/Monday, and they want teams to have a fair shot to pick up players, so the first day after MNF is claiming day and the claims process on Wednesday. The assumption being that demand for a specific player doesn't change much between Tuesday and Saturday. The most "fair" thing to do would be make every day a waiver claiming day [perhaps unlocking on Sunday morning]. That way if midweek news breaks about a player having a critical injury or suspension, everyone has a fair shot at claiming a player who immediately had a MAJOR change to their outlook. That said, you did nothing wrong and in no world should Ware be placed on waivers unless your league settings ALREADY had that. He's just whining.
  13. Pick two in standard: Mike Evans Emmanuel Sanders Brandin Cooks