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Everything posted by Motown_Magic

  1. Okay, once again, i guess we are talking about 2 different things here because I am referring to Judge's value on OBP leagues. I would argue, barring health, Judge's floor is absolutely equivalent to JD and Arenado in an OBP league, and I think his HR and OBP ceiling gives him a case to be drafted over them both. He also can chip in 8-12 steals, while JD and Nolan would give you 4 at best.
  2. At this time next year, based on health and his tweaks, I don't think it's a stretch that there is a legitimate case for Judge over all three of those guys in OBP leagues- and potentially even BA leagues. And Davis? Judge's rookie season already produced 30 more runs than Davis' career high, 4 more home runs, and an OBP 90 points higher than Davis' career best. Considering we may have not seen Judge's peak yet, the protection his lineup offers, the park he hits in, and the swing adjustment that is seemingly paying dividends... Yeah, there very well may be a case to take him over all 3 of those guys next year. In OBP leagues? Absolutely. We shall see, but I don't think it is fair to write him off like that.
  3. Went hitting with my first 5 picks and snagged him 57th in a 10 team roto. Taillon went ahead of him and I didn't want to risk it. Dude is a rare combo in today's game of 200IP and 200K potential, and should finish anywhere between SP8-15. Seems like a safer option than guys going around his ADP (Stras/Pax). Finished last season tied for the AL lead in shutouts and was top 10 in all your standard stats (Ks, IPs, ERA, fWAR). As long as he can stay around his 2018 performance, this is a value pick in the 6th round and a low tier ace for your staff.
  4. I’m huge on Hoskins this year and think he offers tremendous value given his ESPN ADP of 42 currently. Even more so in OBP leagues. He should have multi position eligibility after week 1 (needs 3 games at 1B to be 1B eligible). Given their lineup additions, Hoskins will have an excellent shot at 110+ RBIs. I expect no less than 35 home runs as well, and 30 should be an absolute floor. 1B/OF eligible, I’m in. I’ll project a line of 90/38/108 and a .250 BA with a .360+ OBP. You could make a case to take him 20-25th overall in OBP leagues and I wouldn’t fault you.
  5. Good to see I’m not entirely insane for thinking this way, counts even more when it comes from Taobball, haha. What you said pretty much summarizes my entire thought process here. If we are looking at OBP in a redraft 5x5, I think arenado/Harper are your 2 best bets at 4th overall. Say the runs/RBIs/HRs are a push...... well, Harper wins on OBP/steals and it has potential to not be close for those 2. Clear winner ends up being Bryce. Injuries are more of a concern, but I’m not sure it’s enough to warrant dropping him down the rankings.
  6. I’m picking 4th in an OBP league and it might be crazy, but I’m heavily considering him in that spot over arenado. I think the park factors for lefties deserve a long look, and carries even more value than the lineup change. Some consider the lineups a push, I personally give the slight nod to philly. Either way, in OBP leagues, I think when you consider the crapshoot that picks 4-16ish offer, it wouldn’t be insane to go Bryce there. Even if he runs a little less, I think 100/36/110/10.380 OBP are pretty reasonable here. Sure he’s streaky, but with the depth of middle infield and even 3B this year, Harper might be my guy at 4.
  7. I mean he's only 32.. had a late start to his career and was a rookie in 2014. It's not like he has 12 seasons of abuse under him. 4 full seasons, and 128 games last year. I'm not sure if an age related decline should be a huge concern. Definitely want to keep an eye on him in spring training with his health. But this is a guy who owns a 162 game average of .295, 87 runs, 32Hrs, 107 RBIs (on some trash teams) and 187 hits. Say he plays 150 games, that's top 5-7 1B production, especially with how shallow the position is this year. If he looks good in spring training, he is a major buy going ~65-80th overall in drafts if you wait on 1B.
  8. I see alot of similarities with him and what Snell had potential to be at the beginning of last year... and look how that turned out. Elite stuff, high K rate, too high of a BB rate which is a fixable issue.. Snell got his stuff under control and the rest is history. Not saying Glasnow will become this year's Snell, but the pros and cons sure do mirror eachother. Potential is there. Definitely hoping to take a flier on him in redraft leagues.
  9. I get where you’re coming from here but I can’t say I agree with doubling down on these 2 positions just for the principle of baiting them into a run. With catchers, you can get a Grandal or a Ramos like 145+, and their dropoff from a Sanchez is not as bad as you’d think. That 4-5th rounder could go to a rock solid OF2 or even a Bellinger/Rendon. Same with closers, work the wire and also snag some guys in the 100-150 range and you’ll be just fine there. Half the guys going 65-80 now were wayyyy late round gems last year i.e. Treinan. Closing is such a carousel, I see those trends repeating
  10. I saw something similar, couldn’t agree more. Barring health I think both of them will be atop the NL in a few years once the kershaws and Scherzers of the world age a bit more. As of now though, it’s hard to argue the value that Flaherty offers in this year’s draft. Like you said, will probably have less of an innings limit too. Praying he doesn’t creep up a few rounds come March. I may punt pitching altogether rounds 1-5 and end up with a Flaherty/Taillon/Clevinger combo. You could do a lot worse imo
  11. If there is a guy with the best chance to take his first leap into the top 12 SPs next year, this might be my pick. His advanced metrics under the hood all check out, he plays for one of the best franchises when it comes to grooming SPs, and he has an ADP around 70 right now in ESPN leagues. Averaged 10.8 K/9 last year, and should be able to push 180+ Innings & 200+Ks with relative ease. The video below does a great job summarizing his skillset and strengths, I encourage you to take a look. It's risky, but if you go hitter heavy and snag him as your SP1, you might not be all too disappointed. He's a target for me everywhere, and should be one of the bright young pitchers in the game for years to come. Thoughts on Flaherty? Too risky for an SP1? Nola was going right around 55-70 last year, and I'm seeing a lot of similarities here. Not saying he will jump to a top 5 SP, but I think top 10-15 is feasible. I see value here on draft day.
  12. Love the start to your team in your signature so far btw.. To answer your Q, in all the 10 team ESPN mocks i have done (10-15 mocks), he has gone as early as 55 and as late as 70. Pretty much right around 60-65 everytime. If I skip the top dogs at SS and then miss Bogaerts, he's my target everytime. Which is most times. If he plays in 150 games, in that park and lineup, I have him pegged for 95/15/60/20 and a.350-.360OBP. Dude is as consistent as they come and a prime target for those wanting to take advantage of the SS depth this year. Very well could be in for a career year due to his change of scenery, and could even top 105+ runs if all falls into place perfectly. I will be looking to pair him with some big RBI/HR bats atop my draft.
  13. All I see is a guy who is going to score 95 runs, 12 home runs, 10 steals, and a .350+ OBP with room for more. He will be going in the triple digits of drafts this year. If you wait on 2B, and pair him with a guy with some pop, a position you waited on could be more than serviceable. At his age, the lineup behind him, and the park, I don't see a repeat close to 2016 as out of the question. The dude can hit, and the dude knows how to get on base.
  14. I want to go with the horse Hyde, but my gut is telling me gameflow is going to be in Yeldon's favor... Then again, Hyde is no chump catching the ball either.. And his workhorse style is more conducive to babying their QB situation too. This is a tough one.. Leaning Hyde..
  15. So who are we burning the rest of our FAAB on? I’m leaning Hyde but this seems like such a crapshoot between the 2. Tough situation to be in here with many of us going in to playoffs... any insight is much appreciated
  16. I guess you didn’t pick up on the heavy dose of sarcasm and the fact it was a joke. Here’s some insight for you: blount has lost a step and the lions cutting Abdullah helps kerryon even more. If he can get right in a week or 2, we are looking at a low end RB1, especially with Tate traded and Jones hurt. When they’re emphasizing the run, they’ve won. Barring gamescript, because of he reasons above, he will be a near lock for 17-20 touches a game. Dudes a stud, offers keeper value, and we need to hope he bounces back. And soon.
  17. No need to rush the young stud back into what is already a lost year. Regardless, should be a 3rd-4th rounder next year with room for upside. Just get him healthy and ready to go for our Super Bowl run next year
  18. @Dr. Whom If we are thinking he will continue to get stuffed on 3rd and short and goal-line carries... Think again. Blount obviously is more than capable, and fantasy football aside, this is how you preserve a guy for 16 games... Kerryon will get opportunities though, and it would be unwise to write him off. Dude can truck.
  19. I was able to get him and David Johnson for Cooks (sold high before concussion) and Lynch before his dud last week. I would do TY for Lynch straight up if I were you. TY has only missed 2 games in the last 3 years including last weeks miss. You've gotta realize you are getting a bonafide mid tier WR1 when healthy and with Luck now back. Don't get me wrong, I'm still terrified about his hamstring, and seeing Fournette fizzle away first hand doesn't help. I'm approaching it like Fournette's is worse, and if TY sits out 3-4 games you still have a WR1 come playoff time.
  20. You’re the epitome of ignorance if that’s actually your thought process. What quarterback would actually think that way, Stafford or not? Annual bottom 5 running game, annual bottom 10 defense, and getting sacked 35+ times a year are just a few things that prevent playoff wins. Tim Tebow won a playoff game. Is he better than Stafford? Anyway, back to kerryon. No TJ Lang this week isn’t great, but as long as the lions keep losing, it’s obvious the kid needs the ball more. Blount has been largely inefficient since week 1, and I expect the workload to continue to shift in Kerryon’s favor. I expect 15 carries this game as long as Rodgers doesn’t shred the lions defense in the first half. Home game, the Lions will be eager to establish the run early. Kerryon should return mid tier RB2 numbers this week.
  21. Just bought low on him.. As a Fournette owner, taking on another tattered hamstring is NOT good for my health either. Hoping the 10 days does the trick, but also hoping that he does NOT fire it up next week unless he is 100%. Long season ahead.
  22. Stafford for his career plays GB better than anyone else in the division. Last 4 games vs them? 320+ yards each game, 2+ TDs each game, and a 10:2 TD to INT ratio for those 4 games. Home game, offense is healthy minus Lang at RG. I'm starting him over Rivers this week. Am I biased? Yep. It really is a must-win game for Det though, and Stafford does bring it vs the Pack, contrary to what alot of people may think. The Lions defense, however, does not and most likely will not.
  23. Traded him and Sanders for Hopkins this morning.. Not 100% confident of that move after last night's performance, but I look at selling high as the right move here. Dude is averaging a TD per every 8 receptions, I just cannot see that being sustainable especially with Edelman looking truly like his old self. Sony looks the part as well, more so than I expected.. The historically proven volatility of Patriots RBs any given week makes me wary of White, especially with what looks like a borderline bellcow ahead of him. I can't fault any of you for riding this wave in PPR, but I am officially off the train as I fear the erratic Hoodie will rear his ugly head as the season wears on.
  24. With Grant getting some serious looks, tough to look at Yeldon as a high-end handcuff like an Ekeler. Probably not even start worthy even if Fournette is out again.
  25. The potential QB change in a few weeks does make me wary. Or will it not even happen due to how electric ol Fitzpatrick has been? I definitely understand OJ's upside and athleticism while taking into account positional scarcity .. Debating dropping Doyle for him but worried about Howard's potentially low floor to go with a QB change