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Jaw1

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Jaw1 last won the day on November 17 2018

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  1. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    I agree with the workload/injury concerns but $30 (assuming $200) seems a bit rich to me. Henry and Drake were like 4th rounders so I have him lower than that. I'm not sure he'll be drafted as a top 20 RB, I'm thinking like Ingram, Miller, Lynch, Hyde area which I'm assuming was like high teens based on a $200 budget.
  2. Zach Ertz 2018 Outlook

    Gronk this season has been one of the biggest busts in recent memory. I don't understand how 1 guy being a bust is an indictment against the entire position. To me taking a top 3 TE in the 3rd was a no brainer this year. Gronk and Kelce last year both outscored the WR10 AJ Green and Ertz wasn't far off (Gronk missed 2 games due to injury and was still that good). Looking at fantasypros ADP info the WR8/9's ADP was the early 3rd so even if you treated these guys like WRs it wasn't even that bad of value but when taking into account they are TEs and how shallow the position is I think it was one of the better values at that point in the draft. Gronk was obviously a huge bust (I thought the threat of retirement was revolving around his unhappiness around his contract but in hindsight maybe it was because he felt his body breaking down since he looked "broken" for a lot of this season and Brady started to finally show his age some) but low and behold that Kelce once again put up WR1 caliber numbers and so did Ertz (heading into this week they would've been WR8 and WR10 based on total points in ppr).
  3. 2018 Vent & Rant Thread

    Dang when you have a strong week but your opponent drops 160 in standard while only putting up 130 in the 2 previous weeks combined. That Roethlisberger and Brown stack is a killer.
  4. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    Dude was a complete beast down the stretch. He never really got the respect he deserved this year thanks to the perceived injury risk and the unfounded belief that "who knows who Carroll is going to use next week" (The answer has been basically been Carson since last season with the only exception being when he was injured). Thanks to concerns about health and Penny I expect him to be undervalued again next year.
  5. Justin Davis 2018 Outlook

    Nevermind looks like Anderson is starting.
  6. Justin Davis 2018 Outlook

    I mean he has been the backup ahead of Kelly so with Gurley and Brown out he seems like the default #1. Davis and Kelly have been on the team since the offseason so if they weren't confident in these 2 then why wait so long after Brown went down to bring in Anderson? I felt it had to the combination of the Gurley and Davis injuries (they both were injured last week) which would've potentially left them with 1 RB today. I don't doubt Anderson could unseat him but I'd imagine Davis would get the first shot and he obviously has the advantage of familiarity with the team.
  7. C.J. Anderson 2018 Outlook

    Justin Davis is active. He has been the preferred backup since Brown went down so he should be the favorite no?
  8. Biggest Busts of 2018

    Yeah there are guys that feast in PPR but really aren't that great or useful in real life but imo the good outweighs the bad (those type of guys that get the "meaningless" extended handoff type catches). It helps to decrease the value of QBs and simultaneously props up WRs and to a lesser extent RBs (although I think with less and less 3 down bellcows and more and more receiving backs it helps adapt with the direction the league is going). It lowers some of the volatility of WRs which is an inherently volatile position and makes it so skill positions aren't quite as TD reliant (in many instances if your "elite" guy doesn't score a TD he can be outscored by a far inferior player who does very little except score a TD and TDs are of course difficult to predict and from a game to game perspective a little flukey). I guess scoring TDs are literally the point of the game but I think standard puts too much emphasis on the guy who crosses the line when other guys often do a lot of the heavy lifting to get in that position (and imo just .1 pt per yard doesn't do enough justice and ppr helps some although it is far from perfect and creates issues). Like most things though it adds an extra layer of complexity and the "benefit" it provides may be offset by the new issues it creates (my league tried 1st down bonuses 1 year and it was a bit of a mess especially since it makes projections a lot tougher). Ultimately though your strategy should be different depending on the scoring method and you should adjust your strategy accordingly so it comes down to personal preference.
  9. Allen Robinson 2018 Outlook

    I'd be more worried about Arob just not being used like a WR1 in this spread it around offense. Sherman has lost a step but he is still a good corner. I'm not sure how much he actually shadows guys though, I seem to recall him typically just lining up on one side of the field.
  10. Melvin Gordon 2018 Outlook

    Tough matchup and Rivers completely shat the bed so all considering I'll take it. He didn't look quite like himself though. Real disappointing past few weeks for a guy who looked real good most of the year and is in one of the more attractive situations in the league for a RB not named Gurley. I think he deserves to be in the conversation next year for top 5 RB with Gurley, Barkley, CMC and Zeke although he'll likely (and probably deservingly) be fighting for 5th if his playoff performance can't undo the sour taste he left with the injuries down the stretch. From a non-fantasy macro view of the NFL, what the heck is happening with all the top teams seeming to stumble down the stretch? I guess it has had profound fantasy playoff implications but it should also make for an interesting real playoff situation as well since who knows which version of these teams will show up.
  11. Biggest Busts of 2018

    I'm interested to hear how this works. Do you take like a DFS approach for the playoffs?
  12. Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

    The big issue with this guy is injuries. When "healthy" he has averaged 14.7 pts per game since week 3 (17th best at RB over that span in PPR). I think he is a solid RB2 since Seahawks are ultra-committed to the run which has made him fairly consistent. He even caught a ton of passes last week but I think it had to do with Davis missing some snaps due to injury (He returned and Carson was a little slow to get up and walked off clutching his arm but returned last week too). Surprisingly the Seahawks have been able to put up a lot of points without abandoning their identity as a run heavy team so I don't think the risk of Seahawks abandoning the run is that great since they've been able to play 2 close games against the Rams where both sides eclispsed 30 points. I love watching this guy play though, while not super talented he plays so hard and gives his all on each play (unfortunately often to the detriment of his health). That second effort touchdown last week is what "won" my week last week.
  13. IDP Rankings/Talk

    IDP rookie this year and might be down my 2 starting safeties this week (Geathers out already, McDouglad questionable) anything to see with Adrian Phillips on Chargers against Ravens? Had a big game last week but it sounds like he plays mostly in nickel and dime packages which I would assume would be the exact opposite of what they'd play against a run-heavy team like the Ravens although maybe having a more versatile/athletic dude would be preferred.
  14. Leonard Fournette 2018 Outlook

    I'm surprised to see who people are starting over him this week. I know he has been disappointing the past 2 weeks but Titans have a very strong run D and Redskins are above average. He did put together 3 20+ games in a row a few weeks ago in the same terrible offense. Miami's rush D isn't very good so I don't have an issue firing him up as my RB2 over Cohen, McGuire and Ballage.
  15. Ezekiel Elliott 2018 Outlook

    I completely agree Gurley is the no-brainer #1 like he was this year, what question mark does he have other than health (where he isn't really any more vulnerable than the rest of these guys)? People are sleeping on Melvin Gordon too after the injuries. With his usage I think he deserves a place in this conversation as well. Kamara could shoot up rankings too depending on what Saints do in FA with Ingram's contract expiring.