thebrowns

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Posts posted by thebrowns


  1. On 4/27/2018 at 10:32 AM, devaster said:

    Eagles traded up for Wentz and he is much better than Goff. Another example. And I'd say Houston trading up for Watson will be the better of Mahomes and Trubisky.

     

    29 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

    Fun reading through this again with the season just about played out.

     

    You're right @TTo34 this is a fun read. This quote from @Devastator would make a great debate now.

     

    I'm scared to see what i said. 


  2. 17 minutes ago, ginocan said:

     

    You nervous about your QB throwing for 2 TDs in the FIRST quarter? Lmao. 

     

    Can’t be serious. Just can’t. 

     

    9 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

     

    11 pts in just a quarter of game play lol... If he’s not track for 60, press the panic button now!

     

    I feel better now that Los Angeles scored. Andy is notorious for taking his foot off the pedal. Troll if you want to, "a little nervous" was appropriate. Anyone who capitulates first quarter points across a game without factoring in real world coaching is shortsighted. I was more nervous about the 85 yds and 2td lead.


  3. 4 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

     

    I am just saying that after Rivers/Ben/Manning, the following year was lackluster, yes Rodgers turned out to be great, and there is no doubt in my mind none of these guys can be Rodgers, because very few to ever play the game have even been close

     

    I think that the nw rules are going to allow more guys to succeed. Have you watched all of these guys? 


  4. 30 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

    so this is what 2005 class looked like

     

    after a QB rich class, it seems like there is nothing following

     

     

    That isn't a terrible thing. 2005 gave us Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith. Plus other guys who have contributed like Derek Anderson, Matt Cassel, and Fitzmagic. 

    There are classes that haven't had a HOFer (rodgers) and dependable starter (smith).

     

    I think there's at least one Rodgers in this class,  I don't like OSU, but Haskins has it. This class is fine if he and Herbert come out. 

     

    Unfortunately, there's just a lot of guys in this class who need the right spot. 


  5. 23 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

    I like Grier 

     

    I like Grier too. I want to see more of him before I decide to invest in him. Right now he's in Mason Rudolph territory. He's a dynasty stash in 2QB. TBH, i have Lauletta in one league.


  6. 9 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

     

    After reading the last few pages I'm fully expecting Pettis to bomb this week :D. Way too much confidence out there. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

     

    We definitely should temper expectation. We're depending on a third string underrated rookie (i know it's his second year, but it's his first season) to get the ball out. The O-Line is not great, Denver is elite away getting to the QB.

     

    I won't be surprised if Pettis bombs. And, i don't think anyone sees him as a FF WR1. Hopefully he's the flex play. Everyone I'm starting him over has the same floor. His ceiling is crazy high, that's the cause of optimism. I don't think many of us will be let down by him, because we understand the risk. 

     

    I expect him to be more dependable next year. Still the best all around WR in this rookie class,  IMO.


  7. Ten Months Later, this is what I'm thinking as the season closes down.

     

    1) Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State) [UC] -- decent floor, high upside, not much experience, quick release and good vision, he's learning a lot but seems to be a quick learner

    2) Justin Herbert (Oregon) [UC]  --  a lot of tape, high risk high reward, athletic, strong arm

    3) Daniel Jones (Duke) [UC] -- high floor low ceiling, good coaching pedigree, smart, average to above verge arm strength

    4) Drew Lock (Mizzou) [GR] -- strong arm, a lot of tape, decent floor decent ceiling

    5) Will Grier (West Virginia) [GR] -- great college career, good release, good accuracy, decent mobility, average to maybe just below average arm strength

    6) Jarrett Stidham (Auburn) [DC] -- weird release, average arm strength, smart, underperformed junior year

     

    UC - Undeclared

    GR - Graduated

    DC - Declared


  8. 2 minutes ago, trolltoll said:

     

    Agreed, would never forgive myself. How could I sit the player with quite possibly the best fantasy season in history?

     

    However, I have Rivers as my back up vs CIN. I'm REALLY having a hard time with this one. There's been a couple games Rivers has outscored Mahomes and this could be one of them. BAL is no joke vs QB's

     

    I've sat Mahomes 2 times this year for Rivers and I was right on both of them (week 1 and week 5), but now the stakes are higher than ever and I'd be pissed if I lost because I got cute.

     

    gahhhhh

     

     

    I know this is a feed on Mahomes and not an advice feed. However, gotta start Rivers. I don't think that Baltimore will push KC on the score even though this will be Jackson's best passing game to date. River's floor is a little less in this game and his ceiling is comparable. Could Mahomes outscore Rivers? Sure! I don't think it will be by more than a few points.

     

    That being said. I'm rolling with Mahomes. I love the possibilities now that Hunt is gone. The backs on the roster are better receivers than runners (even though hunt was a better receiver than any of them). I don't think we are going to see a huge commitment to the run which will open up the passing game, especially the vertical game to Hill and to Robinson. 

    • Like 1

  9. 3 hours ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

    Denver likely up in this game I would think, on Denver with two left in survivor, I'll say Pettis gets 6-8 targets. Pettis has had two solid weeks in a row, seems to be ascending whether Goodwin makes it back or not. 

     

    I highly recommend you guys looking into the stats of good route runners vs the Denver defense. Matt Waldman did a great write up on Pettis' chance of having a big game because his routes are crisp and Denver can't defend that. Now, imagine Denver being up and not being able to defend Pettis. He could easily of 5-100-1.


  10. 1 hour ago, RoseLin23 said:

    Anyone concerned about Mahomes matchup vs Baltimore next week? I was hoping to get a first round round bye but it didn't happen. With the way the Ravens control the clock with their run game, I'm a bit worried about this matchup as it's one and done now in the playoffs.

     

    What do you guys think?

     

    I'm rolling with him. There is a chance this game is like Jacksonville, where he doesn't have a score. He still had 18 fpts in that game. 18 for a floor is really good. It was clear on Sunday that option 1 is pass, option 2 is pass, and option 3 is run. The Chiefs are going to live and die on that arm.


  11. 3 hours ago, Tugginroot said:

    Crickets in here.  Anybody see this coaching changes as a good thing, and getting him the ball more?

    I'm nervous about this move for Landry. Kitchens was the RB coach for awhile. Three positive i do see is the Bruce Arians pedigree. Maybe Jarvis will get more PPR production. This week is a good litmus test. If things don't go well against KC i'd stay us landry owners are screwed. That defense is generous; if baker can't whip something up there we'll know everything we need to about the interim regime.


  12. 4 hours ago, TTRA1N said:

    #5 Patrick Mahomes

     

     will finish outside the top 5 QBs this week
    Did you know Mahomes is only 9th in the NFL in passing yards after three weeks? He is just 1 yard ahead of Matthew Stafford

     

     and Joe Flacco

     

     too. If you pro-rate his numbers to a full season, he is on pace for fewer than 500 passes. The only reason for his success thus far is an entirely unsustainable 14.0% touchdown rate. More likely, he is a low-end QB1 for the rest of the season, especially against a defense like the Broncos this week.
    Final Prediction: 252 pass yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 15 rush yards

     

    This dude from fantasypros is at it again lol.

     

    19 minutes ago, howlin' 2 said:

    Sorry analysis, the only reason for Mahomes not putting up top 5 numbers was they had such a big lead they were draining the clock  most of the late 3rd into the 4th qtr. Every game his year the Chiefs have been playing from the lead so no need for keeping the foot on the gas. 

     

    If they were chasing the lead then his numbers would be even greater. TD ratio may regress (will) his yardage and attempts should be equal or likely higher. KC defense isn't a strong one so it's entirely likely that the Chiefs will fall behind in some games . Mahomes efficiency has to drop back closer to the mean but volume should mitigate the drop off . 

     

    This!

     

    I'm amazed that people can only look at one set of data. Yes, there should be a regression in TD efficiency; yet, those TDs have a real game effect. Mahomes may not be a game-winner for Kansas City, however, he should be a game winner in fantasy because of that bottom 5 defense. 

     

    FTR I would not be surprised to see Mahomes stay efficient. He seems to have every level: very short, short, intermediate, long, and deep. He has a quick release and is on point more often than not. His receivers make catches, who knows if Hunt will remember how to move the ball with a hand-off... that helps even more with Mahomes' numbers has he uses dump-off passes instead of handoffs. 

     


  13. Regarding interceptions:

    53 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

     

    It would be one thing if this were a new struggle for him, but 29 INT in 32 college games says otherwise.  

     

     

     

     

    It is short-sighted to cite only the number of games he played in rather than consider the number of opportunities (passing attempts).

     

    I am concerned about interceptions for any rookie.

     

    Peyton Manning

    Threw 28 INTs on 575 attempts (0.0487 INT rate per Attempt, almost 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season.

    NFL Total: 251 INTs on 9,380 attempts: 0.0268 rate

    His college numbers at Tennessee were 33 career INTs on 1381 attempts (0.0239 rate).

     

    Alex Smith

    Threw 11 INTs on 165 attempts (0.0667  INT rate per attempt, over 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season. 

    NFL Total: 96 INTs on 4,613 attempts: 0.0201 rate

    His college numbers at Utah were 8 career INTs on 587 attempts (0.0136 rate).

     

    Sam Bradford

    Threw 15 INTs on 590 attempts (0.0254 INT rate per attempt, about 1 every 40 attempts) his rookie season.

    NFL Total: 57 INTs on 2,887 attempts: 0.0197 rate

    His college numbers at Oklahoma were 16 career INTs on 893 attempts (0.0179 rate).

     

    Matthew Stafford

    Threw 20 INTs on 377 attempts (.0531 INT rate per attempt, over 1 every 20 attempts) his rookie season.

    NFL Total 118 INTs on 4,850 attempts: 0.0243 rate

    His college numbers at Georgia were 33 career INTs on 987 attempts (0.0334 rate).

     

    Baker Mayfield

    College numbers at Texas Tech and Oklahoma were 30 career INTs on 1,497 attempts (0.0200 INT rate per attempt, 1 every 50 attempts).

     

    Patrick Mahomes II

    Threw 1 INT on 35 attempts in a garbage time game his rookie year; has him off to a .0286 interception rate, 1 ever 35 attempts.

    His college numbers at Texas Tech were 29 INTs on 1,349 attempts (.0215 rate)

     

     

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  14. 20 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

    A Gurley extension doesn't = guaranteed health.  I like Kelly as well.  I don't expect much out of him, but who knows, you could do worse with your last pick in the draft.  Maybe McVay and staff decide to give Kelly a few touches...

    .....

    If Kelly can carve out 10 touches a game, that would put him around guys like Chris Thompson, Duke Johnson, Rex Burkhead.  Again, not a band investment for your last pick in the draft.  Realistically I expect Kelly to be between 8-10 touches a game.  128-160 for the season.

     

    And if Todd Gurley has any injury this year, Kelly could turn into a league winner.

     

    On 7/25/2018 at 3:27 AM, cdd10 said:

    too bad Gurley just signed a extension.  can always grab Chase Edmonds for when DJ gets hurt 

     

    19 hours ago, ponza88 said:


    ??? That doesn't affect John Kelly at all.......?

     

    13 hours ago, cdd10 said:

    i suppose it would since gurley is like zeke is to the cowboys, their everything. but you could be right. he could see fantasy relevance in 2023. 

     

     

    12 hours ago, hard1 said:

    By then they will have drafted a new flavor....no one rides pine anymore for 4 years and goes somewhere to start.... they've either traded for them or drafted another back already.... dudes in fantasy wasteland without gurley injury

     

    11 hours ago, cdd10 said:

    not to mention he isn't even that great well not imo. he is about the 14th-15th best RB in the class. i suppose he could exceed expectations i'm not just gonna straight gas the dude. 

     

    7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

     

    That depends on if your analysis sucks or not.

     

     

     

    7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

     

    Best way to figure out whether it sucked though. I prefer making my own mistakes to repeating someone else's.

     

    7 hours ago, Iron-cock said:

     

    Personally any valuable information I'll consider, and there are a few guys on here I pay attention to if my opinion radically differs from theirs.

     

    It's up to you, all I'm saying is you should evaluate yourself too if you're always horribly wrong.  Not that you are...

     

     

     

    7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

    Oh absolutely. I know enough to know I know nothing, and differing opinions are always interesting.
    But in the end _I_ take the decision, _I_ fail, and then it's up to _me_ to change. No-one else.

     

     

    1) kudos to @cdd10 for some quality practice aggressiveness. 

     

    2) i appreciate the argumentsin favor of John Kelly. 

    2a) picking a late/last round flyer it's fun, when has a fourth/fifth round pick been a world beater their rookie season? 

    2b) there is a decent argument for Kelly IF he gets that backup role

    2c) Kelly doesn't have to be elite. While he is not a top overall prospect in this class he is a top receiving back. 

    2d) Three extension doesn't matter,  because the argument for Kelly, as a late round pick, was made with his role as a backup in mind.

    2e) I agree,  it can be helpful to explore different viewpoints. 

    2f) failing on my last rookie pick it's no big deal. 

    2g) don't take Kelly in rounds 1-2 (3 would be questionable) 

    3) Kelly could perform well enough to be trade bait, i don't expect him to ever be a contributor. I have already identified trade partners who will give a 2nd for a rookie back showing promise. 

    • Like 1

  15. https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2018-outlook-carlos-hyde/

     

    " Carlos Hyde left the 49ers for the Browns this offseason as a free agent, and he's expected to share touches with Duke Johnson and rookie Nick Chubb. It's not an ideal situation, but Hyde will likely be the starter and handle the majority of work on rushing downs. Chubb will be a factor in that scenario, and Hyde should see a decline in his production as a receiver because of Johnson. In 2017, Hyde had the most work of his career and finished with over 1,200 total yards and eight touchdowns. Part of that was 59 catches for 350 yards, and those stats will be hard to replicate. We'll see how the Browns plan to use Chubb, and hopefully Hyde can still get enough touches to be a quality Fantasy option. But his Fantasy outlook is lower with his move to Cleveland as long as Chubb and Johnson stay healthy. We still like Hyde as a No. 3 running back/flex option with the Browns, but he's only worth drafting in Round 7 in standard leagues and Round 8 or later in PPR."

     

    This article from two weeks ago does a better job of articulating my argument regarding Hyde. Is he a value at current ADP? Definitely. AND he's better suited for the third running back on a roster than the first or second. He was in a near ideal situation (we can talk about the line if you want to, thus the "near" qualifier) last year. I don't think we can reasonably expect him to do better or even to replicate last year's production.

     

    A few more quotes:

    "Hyde was an RB1 last season in a lackluster offense, so don't be surprised if he holds off Nick Chubb for a year. The upside is there for him to return to top 15 production, but there will be some obstacles considering all the mouths Cleveland suddenly has to feed."

    Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros - 2 weeks ago

     

    "He's someone I was targeting in best-ball leagues as a low-end RB2 just a couple weeks ago, as I do believe the Browns are going to be run-heavy in 2018. While that's still going to be the case, them drafting Nick Chubb in the second-round was the worst-case scenario for Hyde (outside of them taking Saquon Barkley). Chubb is essentially a younger version of Hyde, but faster. I still believe Hyde gets 10-12 touches per game, but it's not enough to crack the top-30 running backs."

    Mike Tagliere - FantasyPros - 5 weeks ago


  16. 3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

    "but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back"

     

    well yeah, he has a chance, but i don think its a very big one. Just by looking at the title of the article i can tell this was written by some jabroni just looking for clicks. Rookies in general create a lot of buzz this time of year and he's just playing off that. If training camp starts and a browns writer reports that chubb is killing it and spending a lot of time with the 1s then ill consider drafting him over hyde. Until then, i would say most signs point towards hyde being the early down back in this offense 

     

    This wasn't a self-contained article. It's an excerpt from a larger article (I included the link) about projecting the top ten rookie RBs. The point is that Chubb will not be a non-factor. Expecting any one of these RBs to excel would be folly.