thebrowns

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Everything posted by thebrowns

  1. http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/23671886/2018-nfl-stat-projections-top-10-rookie-running-backs "ESPN Browns reporter Pat McManamon: It's early in the process, but Chubb has a chance to be the Browns' starting running back. Chubb's between-the-tackles ability and his work ethic will earn him a long look in training camp and preseason. It would not be surprising to see Chubb get the bulk of the every-down carries, especially early in games. The competition will be intriguing. The Browns did sign Carlos Hyde to go with Duke Johnson, in addition to drafting Chubb. But Hyde's tough running would be valuable in short-yardage, red zone and fourth-quarter situations -- assuming the Browns have games when they are protecting a late lead. Johnson's role won't change; he'll be the change-of-pace back, the weapon out of the backfield." I think that drafting Hyde at current ADP makes sense; it means that Hyde isn't viewed as an RB1. I don't think that any of those backs can be viewed as more than flex options ATM, even in PPR. Shanahan is a special coach so I don't see Hyde catching 59 passes again, he had 50 combined receptions in the three years prior to 2017. He hasn't been a high volume rusher, I think he tops out at 16 rushes/game. Which isn't awful, but he was the feature back. Duke has had 188 receptions in three years. Chubb should eat into Hyde's touches. This doesn't mean Hyde doesn't have value, it just means that expectations should be tailored. Chubb probably won't be a breakout stud. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation. Hyde probably won't be better than what he's been and could regress. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation. Duke will probably be what he is, a little upside here because of Haley. I like him, but he has a bad FF situation.
  2. I am a Webb owner and I'm seriously considering doubling down on Giants project QBs with Lauletta. I was a lot higher on Webb before they drafted another 3rd round QB. Lauletta feels more like a QB in the mold of Eli than Webb does. Here is still to hoping Webb can be the future there.
  3. where do you all have Anthony Miller right now? This is our last chance to a assess these guys in a vacuum. (I'm pumped for the draft)
  4. Ditto, we'll have a better idea in four days.
  5. I am intrigued by Kelly but won't use a 1st or early second on him so i probably won't get the chance to grab any shares. Michel is a top 5 prospect in this class IMO. I like Chubb and Guice more. The only concern i have with Penny is his pad protection. I think it will limit his playing time. Thanks for sharing those links.
  6. I agree. One worry I have is that Kelly will go too high. Even with a good landing spot I don't know that he is better than the first few tiers of guys in this class. I see him as a mid to late 2nd PPR and I think he will go too early to be worth value.
  7. I remember when Keenum was in school. I was really excited for him to go to the NFL, it was before I understood the differences between college and the pros in scheme and talent. He tore it up for three years, it was really disappointing when he got hurt in 2010, I was glad he got a do-over in 2011. Unless, as the other posts indicate you thought that the article was referencing his pro production when it said "mid-major star". In that case: Passing Year School Conf Class Pos G Cmp Att Pct Yds Y/A AY/A TD Int Rate 2007 Houston CUSA FR QB 13 187 273 68.5 2259 8.3 7.7 14 10 147.6 *2008 Houston CUSA SO QB 13 397 589 67.4 5020 8.5 9.2 44 11 159.9 *2009 Houston CUSA JR QB 14 492 700 70.3 5671 8.1 8.4 44 15 154.8 2010 Houston CUSA JR QB 3 42 64 65.6 636 9.9 8 5 5 159.3 *2011 Houston CUSA SR QB 14 428 603 71 5631 9.3 10.6 48 5 174 Career Houston 1546 2229 69.4 19217 8.6 9.1 155 46 160.6
  8. Here are his stats from 2016. I'm getting my info from sports-reference.com and https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/ Opponent Opponent Defense Ranking Non-JA Rushing W/L CMP ATT % YDS TD INT Rush ATT Rush YDS Rush TDs Northern Illinois 87 176 W 40-34 19 29 66% 245 2 0 10 70 1 Nebraska 64 124 L 17-52 16 32 50% 189 1 5 7 7 0 California-Davis NA 256 W 45-22 11 15 73% 198 3 0 7 18 1 Eastern Michigan 122 78 L 24-27 19 29 66% 234 0 1 8 2 0 Colorado St 55 219 W 38-17 7 18 39% 165 1 0 10 55 1 Air Force 32 117 W 35-26 15 27 56% 173 3 0 13 74 0 Nevada 73 341 W 42-34 9 13 69% 145 0 0 14 52 2 *Caught 1 Pass for 4yds and a TD Boise St 12 163 W 30-28 18 31 58% 274 3 1 11 53 0 Utah State 17 203 W 52-28 16 26 62% 261 4 1 9 66 1 UNLV 109 119 L 66-69 14 31 45% 334 4 2 8 32 0 San Diego St 5 149 W 34-33 16 31 52% 282 2 1 15 56 0 New Mexico 97 199 L 35-56 18 28 64% 248 0 0 11 2 1 San Diego St 5 97 L 24-27 14 31 45% 248 3 2 13 -2 0 BYU 23 148 L 21-24 17 32 53% 207 2 2 6 38 0 vs Top 50 Defenses 877 4-2 96 178 54% 1445 17 7 67 285 1 vs Bottom 50 Defenses 572 1-3 70 117 60% 1061 6 3 37 106 2 Total 2389 8-6 209 373 56% 3203 28 15 142 523 7 WYOMING ranked 91 in defense in 2016 WYOMING competed for the WAC championship despite losing 4 regular season games.
  9. I like ESB. I'm hoping that he ends up being the Raven's plan. Because I've seen Ridley mocked out in the first round to BAL and I'm convinced that would kill him. ESB feels like a Ravens type player, which gives me hope that he can be the yearly sacrifice and Ridley will live. I'm a sucker for a guy who can run routes and catch the ball at elite levels.
  10. Below is a chart of Allen's 2017 games vs the top 50 NAAF Div I defenses and the bottom 50. I expected more WAC teams to be in the bottom 50, but I guess it is the WAC so the offenses aren't great either. In the 7 games listed, he is a combined 88/173 or 50.8% with 972 yds and 8 tds. He completed 57% of his passes against New Mexico for 4 of the remaining 8 tds. The other three games landed him with games well over 60% passing [combined: 64/97 or 65.9%] <-- one of those was Gardner-Webb. The idea that he helped elevate his team isn't fleshed out. He loses to 3/4 top 50 defenses. Being 8-3 as a starter is great but he had the 23 ranked defense in the nation and only played 4 top 50 defenses. He didn't even play against the toughest defense his team faced, his backup wen 20-32/231/1td. Those were not hard defenses he was going against, that's what I called it the JV. Hawaii is the 16th worst defense and he only completed 9 passes. Texas State was the 28th worst defense and he only completed 14 passes. Opponent Opponent Defense Rank out of 129 teams W/L CMP ATT % YDS TD INT Rush ATT Rush YDS Rush TD Iowa 36 L 3-34 23 40 58% 174 0 2 8 -10 Oregon 48 L 13-49 9 24 38% 64 0 1 8 25 1 *Had a reception for 2 yds Boise St 22 L 14-24 12 27 44% 131 1 1 18 62 1 Central Michigan 49 W 37-14 11 19 58% 154 3 0 8 -3 0 Sub Total 55 110 50% 523 4 4 42 74 2 -------------- ----------- -------- -- --- --- --- --- Hawaii 114 W 28-21 9 19 47% 92 1 0 6 17 0 Texas St 102 W 45-10 14 24 58% 219 3 0 8 12 0 Colorado St 97 W 16-13 10 20 50% 138 0 0 12 60 0 Sub Total 33 63 52% 449 4 0 26 89 0 TOTAL 152 270 56% 1812 16 6 92 204 5 Fresno St 15 L 7-13 20 32 63% 231 1 0 7 1 0 **This was Nick Smith WYOMING had the 23rd ranked defense in the nation WYOMING had the 103rd ranked pass offense in the nation Allen completed 60% of his passes in three games one of them was against a non-Div I team
  11. I'm struggling to find more recent stats. From 2002-2012 35% of first round picks made at least one pro bowl. 50% of o-linemen made it. Otherwise, the next "safest" offensive position is QB at 30%, RB at 29%, and WR at 27%. So, drafting is risky. Chances are the guy your team drafts won't pan out. He'll get traded, get cut, be a bust, or under-perform. The draft is for selling hope aka losers. It's one of the reasons why I would trade two high profile picks for OBJ. If I'm any of those top 10 picks I'm calling with my 1st and as high as my 2nd. (assuming I get him signed as part of the deal) Imagine him in SF.
  12. Personally i think that is too high for hill and Gurley alone. I don't like buying a player coming of their best year and a player who is transitioning qbs. See if you can do it without the 2019 1st. I'd wait to make a deal until closer to your draft, those picks will only grow in value. Don't trade now. I'd definitely trade for veterans of your ready to win now. Assuming you didn't earn the 1.02 or 1.03.
  13. Tanner Gentry (WR), Jacob Hollister(TE), and Brian Hill (RB) were on that team right? And Chase Roullier was his center. An additional question to the NFL talent he played with is what NFL talent did he play against? If he is a top 32 NFL QB then he should make a Mountain West squad even better, like putting a Senior on a junior high squad.
  14. It's not that he can't make reads as much as his penchant to panic. He gives up quickly on reads and runs. It's hard to know whether it's a lack of patience or an inability to understand what is unfolding. He just lacks awareness in the pocket. Sarcasm aside, these scores do make me think it is a lack of discipline. I could see him benefiting from two years learning behind a decision maker like Tyrod.
  15. The game tape makes me question Josh Allen's ability to process information and make decisions. This 80 year old test is definitely a valid evaluation of game intelligence.
  16. I'm rising on John Kelly. I like his build and his skill set. Any chance we see him land in Miami or Los Angeles (Rams)? I'd like to see his compliment to those guys. It would also make me feel better about buying Drake shares.
  17. I've had that concern myself. If you have a chance listen to this pod from Eliot Crist. He talks with Scott Barrett of PFF. About midway through Scott really nerds out on how to try to put players on a similar field of comparison. https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/draft-daily/e/53857707
  18. 1.05 is my favorite spot currently. Without knowing landing spot I like Michel, Penny, Guice, and Chubb about equally (their skill sets are diverse).
  19. @joshua18 honest question, hasn't Thompson had some major injury issues? I feel like his window may have already closed. Detroit is a mess, I'm surprised Blount got signed by any team particularly this team. Riddick, Abdullah (talk about injuries), and Blount. That already feels crowded. If they take a rookie I'd look for one of these to get cut/traded and it could be Riddick. (they also resigned Zach Zenner but I don't think that affects this conversation) I assumed that the intent of stating the depth for this class was particularly referenced [NFL Teams with RB Needs] + [Rookie RB Talent] = [Fantasy Starters] If that wasn't the intent then I'd like us to add that layer to the conversation. I don't know that Kamara would be considered the "true starter" in NO yet he was an immediate impact guy. I agree that there are only a few teams where there is a 3 down back opportunity. However, there are only 1 to 5 three-down backs in this draft (I feel like Michel, Chubb, Guice, Penny all have 3 down potential). At that point we start looking at fit and there are probably 18 teams that have 1) some desire to draft a RB and 2) the fit for one of these guys to make a difference. Perrine might have had a chance in a different situation, now he is fantasy dead in WAS.
  20. I'm not sure what to make of this. Does this imply poise? or Does this pose a problem?
  21. Draft Picks: 3rd Round (68th overall)3rd Round (80th overall, from Seattle)3rd Round (98th overall, compensatory)4th Round (103rd overall)6th Round (177th overall)6th Round (211th overall, compensatory)6th Round (214th overall, compensatory)7th Round (222nd overall) Any chance they try to grab one of these RBs in the 3rd? I think this draft is deep enough with talent that they should be able to add solid contributors with their three picks before 100ovr. I think this offense should roll especially with guys getting acclimated to each other. I'm disappointed to see Lamar Miller still in Houston and who knows about Foreman after the injury. This team was rolling when Watson was healthy. I think that year two should prove to be a playoff push especially if they can keep up offensive protection. They could use another d-back too. What do you guys think they do with their draft?
  22. PFF is in love with Mayfield. It is one of the reasons why I'm considering him as my QB1 in the draft. Matt Waldman has me high on Rosen; I really like the pedigree there. Right now my Fantasy QBs are 1. Rosen 2. Mayfield 3. Darnold 4. Jackson 5. Allen It was easy for me to push Darnold to 3 because it appears he'll be the no. 1 and could easily be on the bench for two years, one at the least. Jackson has so much potential as a fantasy machine but I really want to see where he lands. Right now I'm grading him like a RB where I would expect 4 quality years from him. He has potential to move up if I like his landing spot, but he'll need good draft pedigree and a stable situation, two things that are hard to come by, LAC comes to mind. I think Allen has great potential but he needs the Rodgers treatment (similar to Jackson, but without the elite wheels).
  23. Thanks, man, I feel like I'd rather have any of Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Michel, and Penny before one of the WRs. So 5/6 feels about right to me.
  24. I'm excited to see who goes to Miami. Adam Gase could do a great job of coaching someone up. It seems like their done with Ryan T.
  25. I'm dying. Thanks for making everyone in my office look at me and wonder if I'm actually working.