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Everything posted by thebrowns

  1. Who is your homer pick? I agree that this is a solid group of contributors. Which is why I graded it the way I did. I think I will move Washington up slightly. I could go to #8 with him. Richie James is going to be a ridiculous slot option. He could end up with the best production in this class. DJ Moore more than flashed talent at Maryland. Michael Gallup defies the rules of athleticism and creates separation regardless of competition. He did it at the Senior Bowl and did it against Alabama (the rest of CSU got thrashed) Equanimeous St. Brown had a rough 2017 but I still liked what he was able to do. He isn't a do it all type guy but he is a homerun threat and should get red zone options Christian Kirk might be my favorite prospect in this draft. He has great body mechanics and solid hands. Auden Tate is young, super raw (drawback), but his good is so good, I'll drop him significantly if I think he lands in a bad coaching spot, which for him is probably 2/3rd of the league. But in a vacuum I like his potential. Courtland Sutton is not someone I'm sold on but he seems like he should be able to put things together to be a solid WR2. He could be a contributing WR3 next year. I see him as a high floor medium ceiling guy.
  2. Hyde is an average starting running back. Nothing against him; he's just not good or great. The best he has done is 13th in yards from scrimmage. Breida does look like a better fit in SF. They certainly can add to that backfield in the draft. I think Kerryon Johnson could be a sneaky contributor. I agree that Ronald Jones II is the perfect fit; especially, if he has continued to bulk and maintain athleticism. If Hyde was on his rookie contract for 2018 we wouldn't have this conversation (even though that conversation was going around by the bay area writers in July 2017). The issue is that smart teams don't pay top dollar for average players ***COUGH-COUGH-Washington***
  3. Great points. Thank you for the thoughtful discussion. Hyde receiving: 2017: 16 Games - 88 Targets; 59 Receptions; 350 YDs; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate 2014-2016: 34 Games; 64 Targets; 50 Receptions; 284 YDS; 3TDs; 78% Completion Rate Final 5 games of 2017 (With Jimmy Garoppolo): 5 games; 15 Targets; 10 Receptions; 55 Yds; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate Regarding Joe Williams being JAG; I’d argue that is what Hyde is too. Maybe it is a hot take. I think that you would read his stat line and not know who he is. Most of the NFL is interchangeable, so it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I’m just arguing that Williams (IF healthy, probably can fill in for Hyde with Matt Breida getting more work and for there to be no drop off). I don’t think it is “risky” to let Hyde go and try to draft a dynamic replacement. He has never rushed for 1000 yards (988 in 13 games in 2016 and 938 in 16 games in 2017). He was 13th in the league in yards from scrimmage this year (82 yards ahead of the 34 year old Frank Gore.) He was 27th in the league in yards from scrimmage in (13 games) 2016. That sounds like a JAG to me. It is weird because we know the name. He just doesn’t have the production, in 4 years. He will be 28 in 2018. There was even talk in the offseason that he could be cut. That seems like an average stat line. If Hyde was good to great those numbers would really pop. Two of his worst 5 games of 2017 came with Garoppolo under center (both wins). Both games were top 5 in usage (rushes and targets). 2017: 240 attempts/938yds/3.91yds-an-attempt/8tds | 88 targets/59receptions/350yds/67%ctch%/0tds. That 3.91 yds an attempt is 28th in the NFL in 2017. That sounds like JAG production.
  4. I'm struggling to find the stats for game splits but I know that his receiving numbers dropped off after Garoppolo took over. breaks seemed like the favorable option there. Hyde was having a career year (finished with 59 receptions) before Jimmy took over. I'm just guessing they won't over spend to keep him.
  5. lol, my concern with Washington was separation. I've already said I'm going to move him up. Washington's age is average IMO. I expect seniors to be drafted at age 22.
  6. I don't think they want Hyde for their system. IMO they could ride with Joe Williams, Matt Breida, and Kyle Juszczyk. There are a couple of RB that could thrive in SF. The end of last year demonstrated how Hyde isn't the right type of back for Kyle Shanahan.
  7. This was my main concern. I had something in my notes regarding his separation. When I read the note I realized it was open-ended. I found the follow-up. Thank you for the feedback, I definitely knee-jerked on Washington. There are guys I think can develop in most situations, it seems that Washington has a decent ceiling and a high floor. Matt Bowen, ESPN, Jan 23: " "After checking and separating are key to getting the ball in the pros."tape on Washington, I wanted to see him work against press coverage and showcase enough lateral speed to shake defensive backs. Even with the highlight reel of deep ball shots he put together versus Big 12 defenses, beating pressout Matt Bowen, ESPN, Jan 26: "In Mobile, Washington did display the lateral quicks to shake coverage at the line of scrimmage, his route running was much cleaner than I expected, and he knows how to get over the top. Stack and go. Use that long speed. Washington was the top wide receiver during Senior Bowl workouts, and he could put up some WR3/flex numbers as a rookie if he lands in the right situation."
  8. That Penny reference is spot on. I'm guessing both will rise. I tend to avoid those guys because of the price tag. That is the value of starting evaluation prior to the combine and draft. That way the lip stock doesn't make you forget that you're missing a pig.
  9. Where does he fit in the NFL?The talent ous undeniable. But he is 5' 10" and doesn't have Tyreek Hill speed. Will he thrive in the slot?
  10. I think i probably do need to drop Jaleel Scott down. I think most agree that 2019 is the year of the WR. This is a weak class. I will change my mind on Miller and Ridley if they show out at the combine. I'm supposed to bite on 24 year old rookies? Ridley is higher on my list because he has the highest floor. Ridley and Miller are six and four months younger than Amari Cooper. The combine will change some. Just like the senior bowl helped me on Gallup. I'm very interested in Chark testing. When evaluating rookies for fantasy I'm looking for the guys who will have the longest sustained success (clearly format affects this to a degree, but not a ton imo). If I was rating this class for next year alone it would look different. Clearly, Washington, Ridley, and Miller are some some of the most polished in this class. I'm evaluating diamonds not rings; I don't care if a player isn't ready to "wear" yet.
  11. I want to start talking about the 2018 WR rookie class, now that we are to the FF offseason. I find it helpful to have a feel for players prior to knowing they when and where of the draft. Fit will determine ultimate value; this conversation is about the overall talent of players and their potential to succeed. The assumption is that they will land in an average spot. Neither the outlier ideal nor outlier flawed fit. This is my initial list. What push back do you have? Who is overrated? Who needs to be moved up? Disclosure: I value youth - size - hands - athleticism - technical skill - production in that order. (eventually fit will be king) This helped me grab JuJu last year. It doesn't always work out well for me; notice that it has greatly affected how I see players like Calvin Ridley and Anthony Miller (he's old). 1 WR Courtland Sutton SMU 2 WR Auden Tate Florida State 3 WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M 4 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame 5 WR Michael Gallup Colorado St 6 WR DJ Moore Maryland 7 WR Richie James Middle Tennesse St 8 WR Tre'Quan Smith UCF 9 WR Allen Lazard Iowa St 10 WR James Washington Oklahoma State 11 WR Calvin Ridley Alabama 12 WR Simmie Cobbs Indiana 13 WR Deontay Burnett USC 14 WR Antonio Callaway Florida 15 WR Deon Cain Clemson 16 WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico 17 WR Jake Wieneke South Dakota ST 18 WR DJ Chark LSU 19 WR Jordan Lasley UCLA 20 WR Darren Carrington Utah 21 WR DaeSean Hamilton Penn State 22 WR Cedrick Wilson Boise ST 23 WR Anthony Miller Memphis 24 WR Jester Weah Pittsburgh 25 WR J'Mon Moore Missouri 26 WR Trey Quinn SMU 27 WR Brandon Shed Hobart
  12. What do you predict for Sony Michel, RB, Georgia in the 2018 NFL draft? When will he be taken? What role will he be asked to fill? 1st/2nd ROUND - Lead Back 1st/2nd ROUND - 3rd Down Back 3rd Round - Lead Back 3rd Round - 3rd Down Back
  13. I keep trying to figure out the best value in this draft. I like Penny but I'm not willing to pay what he is going to cost. I feel that there will be a lot of players who are going to demand a higher price. I'm hoping that we end up Chubb being the big faller in this FF draft.
  14. I really can't believe that this team made it to 10-6 in 2017. I expected then to fall apart even without drafting Mahomes (giving up a 1st round pick for 2017). The Chiefs we're going to trade Smith for whoever they could get. I think Smith at 33 is better than McNabb at 33; Reid traded McNabb in within the division. I don't think they were going to drop Smith because they would have flipped him for something.
  15. Smith wasn't returning in 2018. Reid loves him, but they need the cap room. Revis, Tamba, and probably Derrick Johnson (he could be restructured) will be cut. This team needs to get younger and cheaper. Especially after keeping Bob Sutton. That Fuller add in helps Mahomes significantly because Smith suffered from an awful secondary. It would be nice for a QB to get a double digit lead and not feel like they are playing from behind. I think they need some pass rush to help protect him, but Mahomes could be very solid next year 4500yds, 30td, 20ints, 63%completion rate, 200 yds on the ground. (Major shot in the dark without knowing the full roster) I expect a receiver and pass protection in the off-season to help Mahomes' side of the ball.
  16. Sounds like a comp is developing for Josh Adams.
  17. The Chiefs were going to trade putt cut Alex by March 16 to save as much as they could in cap space. The closer they got to that date the less leverage they would have, especially as teams started to solidify their 2018 plans. This deal is 15.5mil in cap, Fuller (cb2), and a mid 3rd. Fuller and the new rookie take up just over a combined million. Every dollar matters especially for the aging chiefs. This is a play four 2019. Any wins in 2018 is gravy.
  18. There have been plenty of upright runners excel in the nfl. Like you said, theft need to be excellent at something. To his benefit, Adams appears to be durable. Sometimes that is enough. Being healthy allowed Alex Collins to keep his career alive for at least one more season. For will matter a lot for him. Below are my starting notes from glancing at film at perusing articles. I have most of my sources cited: "***Lacks lateral agility and quickness, and elusiveness. Slow getting going to top speed.*** Physical back, would breaks tackles very well. One cut runner with good power, and decent speed." | DRAFT BLASTER: "A tall, strong runner that draws comparisons to Eric Dickerson in terms of running style, Adams was the heart of the Notre Dame running attack in 2017. Exceptional top end speed coupled with a power running style, Adams is a do it all running back that NFL teams covet. Although the Dickerson comparison is apt, he could use to adjust it so that he can withstand hits better at the next level." | Anthony Amico ROTOVIZ Jan 25: “Josh Adams had a highly-efficient rushing career, averaging 6.7 YPC on 480 attempts. 41 receptions in three seasons isn’t great but certainly could be worse. Adams is 225 pounds, so he may be able to handle more work than his market share of non-QB rush yards would indicate. Still, I would have liked him to come into the draft with more of a workhorse profile.”
  19. I've heard him compared to a 90s fullback. Which means the way he is utilized really matters. Unfortunately, a lot of the places that could utilize him don't really need him.
  20. We are still really early on and I keep making drastic changes. This is my current order based on who I really want to draft. Someone like Deontay Burnett is inflated because I really want him. This isn't necessarily because I think they are the best. Just my personal priority. I have a different list for overall talent. I tend to go with my gut a lot on drafting. This makes me a happy man sometimes and other times I overpay. Hope it helps give some perspective to value. I like my receivers big or young. 1 RB Saquon Barkley Penn State 2 RB Derrius Guice LSU 3 WR Courtland Sutton SMU 4 RB Nick Chubb Georgia 5 RB Sony Michel Georgia 6 RB Ronald Jones USC 7 WR Auden Tate Florida State 8 RB Rashaad Penny San Diego St 9 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame 10 WR Michael Gallup Colorado St 11 TE Dallas Goedert South Dakota ST 12 TE/RB Jaylen Samuels North Carolina St 13 WR Deontay Burnett USC 14 WR DJ Moore Maryland 15 RB Royce Freeman Oregon 16 WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M 17 RB Kalen Ballage Arizona State 18 WR Tre'Quan Smith UCF 19 WR Allen Lazard Iowa St 20 WR Richie James Middle Tennesse St 21 WR James Washington Oklahoma State 22 RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn 23 WR Calvin Ridley Alabama 24 RB josh adams Notre Dame 25 TE Mark Andrews Oklahoma 26 RB Akrum Wadley Iowa 27 WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico 28 WR Antonio Callaway Florida 29 WR Simmie Cobbs Indiana 30 RB Mark Walton Miami 31 WR DaeSean Hamilton Penn State 32 WR Deon Cain Clemson 33 WR Jake Wieneke South Dakota ST 34 WR DJ Chark LSU
  21. I've heard that he has chosen to classify as a RB. He should run a tree and get carries. I just don't know where to rank him. I think, depending on fit, I will personally draft him high. But I'm willing to swing and miss in hope that I hit a homerun. But as far as ranking him as a prospect in relation to the other backs, idk.
  22. The common argument is the Sony Michel, Georgia is a superior FF prospect to Guice. Player to player I think talent and skill (talent being raw gifts that can be honed but can't be taught like speed/agility) (skill being coachables like hands, blocking, and patience) I think that the order of those three is Barkley, Guice, and Michel. Guice is the youngest and Barkley is still two years younger than Michel. I love Guice's mentality. I think that he could excel in Baltimore (if they don't stick with Collins), Seatle, Oakland, or Detroit. I especially like Detroit. I am not sold that Barkley is the clear cut #1 dynasty option. 1-on-1 Barkley wins but it isn't a huge gap IMO. LOVE that Barkley is bigger and accelerates faster than Guice. Guice just has an awesome mentality.
  23. There is chatter that Derrius Guice might be the third best back in this draft. I'm seriously considering Guice ahead of Barkley. I really want to see measurements. Guice isn't an elite blocker like Barkley. He does a good job of making a little out of nothing. He doesn't get caught behind the line much. I feel like these two backs could be like AP and Beast Mode.
  24. I think the skill and talent is pretty close on Michel and Guice. Size, measurables, work ethic, and the skillset cancel each other out. They aren't the same skill set but they both excel in particular areas. The scheme is really going to matter. But having a grasp on players helps. I have Guice by one + over Michel just because of age.
  25. It will be interesting to see how things shake out. I'm concerned that Michel averaged under 14 carries over three years. I'm also a believer in youth in the draft. Guice [June 21, 1997] is 2 1/3 years younger than Michel [February 17, 1995]. Let's see where they test out; Guice has vision, balance, quickness, power, and speed. Michel is a gifted athlete too, a top-rated prospect out of high school - a good nose for the hole. Does age make you reconsider position? Michel is 6 months younger than Todd Gurley and six months older than Kareem Hunt.