thebrowns

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Posts posted by thebrowns


  1. 2 hours ago, jbshaw said:

    The 2014 class was ridiculous.  It's like the 2011 edge rusher class or the 2012 QB class. 

     

    I actually like this class.  I only think there's one star player at WR (and it's a total homer pick and relying on projection and an assumption of bad development coaching in college), but there's a lot of guys I think can be productive WR2 or WR3 types.  

     

    Who is your homer pick?

     

    I agree that this is a solid group of contributors. Which is why I graded it the way I did. I think I will move Washington up slightly. I could go to #8 with him.

    • Richie James is going to be a ridiculous slot option. He could end up with the best production in this class.
    • DJ Moore more than flashed talent at Maryland. 
    • Michael Gallup defies the rules of athleticism and creates separation regardless of competition. He did it at the Senior Bowl and did it against Alabama (the rest of CSU got thrashed)
    • Equanimeous St. Brown had a rough 2017 but I still liked what he was able to do. He isn't a do it all type guy but he is a homerun threat and should get red zone options
    • Christian Kirk might be my favorite prospect in this draft. He has great body mechanics and solid hands.
    • Auden Tate is young, super raw (drawback), but his good is so good, I'll drop him significantly if I think he lands in a bad coaching spot, which for him is probably 2/3rd of the league. But in a vacuum I like his potential.
    • Courtland Sutton is not someone I'm sold on but he seems like he should be able to put things together to be a solid WR2. He could be a contributing WR3 next year. I see him as a high floor medium ceiling guy.

  2. 6 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

     

    He's due for a new contract, so you'll have to pay him more. 

     

    Also, while he is a solid RB, he's not a game changer and not a natural fit for Shanahan's system.  There's 4 or 5 RBs in this draft that would probably be the same or better than Hyde: Barkley, Michel, Guice, Penny...  Maybe Chubb, Jones, or Freeman.  Jones with his speed may actually be a sneaky good fit. 

     

    Basically just dollars and cents. 

     

    6 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

    I could see SF going for Ballage or another speedster and letting Hyde leave. Williams will never be a starter, I'm glad he got a chance to be drafted and be in the NFL, but he was never going to be a NFL calibre back.

     

    42 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

     

    Ronald Jones II fits the bill and could be there when they pick in the second. 

     

     

    Hyde is an average starting running back. Nothing against him; he's just not good or great. The best he has done is 13th in yards from scrimmage. Breida does look like a better fit in SF. They certainly can add to that backfield in the draft. I think Kerryon Johnson could be a sneaky contributor. I agree that Ronald Jones II is the perfect fit; especially, if he has continued to bulk and maintain athleticism.

     

    If Hyde was on his rookie contract for 2018 we wouldn't have this conversation (even though that conversation was going around by the bay area writers in July 2017). The issue is that smart teams don't pay top dollar for average players ***COUGH-COUGH-Washington***

    • Like 1

  3. 4 hours ago, 96mnc said:

    Joe Williams is a jag imo.  He wasn't even on Lynch's draft board either. 

    1

     

    2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

    I don't get the feeling they will either FWIW.

     

    Yes,  his targets dropped off but that was a function of Jimmy g being willing and able to throw the ball downfield to wrs as opposed to rookie beathard.

    2

     

    Great points. Thank you for the thoughtful discussion.

     

    Hyde receiving:

     

    2017: 16 Games - 88 Targets; 59 Receptions; 350 YDs; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate

     

    2014-2016: 34 Games; 64 Targets; 50 Receptions; 284 YDS; 3TDs; 78% Completion Rate 

    Final 5 games of 2017 (With Jimmy Garoppolo): 5 games; 15 Targets; 10 Receptions; 55 Yds; 0TDs; 67% Completion Rate

     

    Regarding Joe Williams being JAG; I’d argue that is what Hyde is too. Maybe it is a hot take. I think that you would read his stat line and not know who he is. Most of the NFL is interchangeable, so it isn’t necessarily a bad thing. I’m just arguing that Williams (IF healthy, probably can fill in for Hyde with Matt Breida getting more work and for there to be no drop off). I don’t think it is “risky” to let Hyde go and try to draft a dynamic replacement.

     

    He has never rushed for 1000 yards (988 in 13 games in 2016 and 938 in 16 games in 2017). He was 13th in the league in yards from scrimmage this year (82 yards ahead of the 34 year old Frank Gore.) He was 27th in the league in yards from scrimmage in (13 games) 2016.

     

    That sounds like a JAG to me. It is weird because we know the name. He just doesn’t have the production, in 4 years. He will be 28 in 2018. There was even talk in the offseason that he could be cut. That seems like an average stat line. If Hyde was good to great those numbers would really pop. Two of his worst 5 games of 2017 came with Garoppolo under center (both wins). Both games were top 5 in usage (rushes and targets). 2017: 240 attempts/938yds/3.91yds-an-attempt/8tds | 88 targets/59receptions/350yds/67%ctch%/0tds.
    That 3.91 yds an attempt is 28th in the NFL in 2017. That sounds like JAG production.

     

     

     

    • Like 1

  4. 1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

     

    Joe Williams is a jag imo.  He wasn't even on Lynch's draft board either. 

     

    I'm curious, what did you see at the end of last year that made you think Hyde isn't the right type of back for Shanahan?

     

    I'm struggling to find the stats for game splits but I know that his receiving numbers dropped off after Garoppolo took over.  breaks seemed like the favorable option there.  Hyde was having a career year (finished with 59 receptions)  before Jimmy took over.  I'm just guessing they won't over spend to keep him. 


  5. 1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

     Don't they need to sign Hyde in FA before the draft, though? Kind of risky if you let Hyde walk and then miss your guy. They should really switch the order of draft and FA I feel like. Wouldn't have had the Peterson fiasco last year if so. 

     

    I don't think they want Hyde for their system. IMO they could ride with Joe Williams, Matt Breida, and Kyle Juszczyk. There are a couple of RB that could thrive in SF. The end of last year demonstrated how Hyde isn't the right type of back for Kyle Shanahan.


  6. 6 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

    Washington can play on the outside. 

     

     

    This was my main concern. I had something in my notes regarding his separation. When I read the note I realized it was open-ended. I found the follow-up. Thank you for the feedback, I definitely knee-jerked on Washington. There are guys I think can develop in most situations, it seems that Washington has a decent ceiling and a high floor.

     

    Matt Bowen, ESPN, Jan 23: "

    "After checking and separating are key to getting the ball in the pros."tape on Washington, I wanted to see him work against press coverage and showcase enough lateral speed to shake defensive backs. Even with the highlight reel of deep ball shots he put together versus Big 12 defenses, beating pressout

     

    Matt Bowen, ESPN, Jan 26: "In Mobile, Washington did display the lateral quicks to shake coverage at the line of scrimmage, his route running was much cleaner than I expected, and he knows how to get over the top. Stack and go. Use that long speed. Washington was the top wide receiver during Senior Bowl workouts, and he could put up some WR3/flex numbers as a rookie if he lands in the right situation."


  7. 4 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

     

    Chark is very interesting, his speed and length are almost martavis bryant - like. He had some trouble with drops, and id like to see him attack the ball rather then let it come into his body. But i have a feeling he is going to test extremely well at the combine. I feel chark is a late riser, on upside alone, similar to penny for RBs. Wether he deserves it or not remaims to be seen, but i really like his measurables.

     

    That Penny reference is spot on. I'm guessing both will rise. I tend to avoid those guys because of the price tag. That is the value of starting evaluation prior to the combine and draft. That way the lip stock doesn't make you forget that you're missing a pig.

    • Like 1

  8. 1 hour ago, vikingapocalypse said:

    Agree with petekrum. I had christian kirk a little lower in my rankings as well. Miller seems criminally low. James washington at 10 doesnt bother me as much as the rest. Comp thats been thrown around is "anquan boldin" with Washington's thicker frame.  I like him but i think he will have limitations at the next level. Id love to see how he is going to use his frame to box out the bigger corners at the next level. I think gallup is a little high too.

     

    Id have ridley alot higher. Hes probably the most pro-ready receiver in this draft. His ability to get of the line is explosive, i found him able to get inside or outside the coverage almost at free will. His size may leave you wanting more but i think he has the easiest transition.

     

    Jaleel scott seems a little high too, not a wr that gains a ton of seperation. His stature it great at 6'6 but reports out of senior bowl were him looking very "heavy footed" and may only be a redzone type weapon at the next level.

     

    I can understand your rankings based on the things you listed. Size seemed to have a big factor in your rankings. Overall, not a bad list. More upside based. Its a good list of names id probably just have them in a slightly different order.


     

     

     

    2 hours ago, petekrum said:

    For me, your rankings of Ridley, Washington and Miller are laughably low. 

     

    I think i probably do need to drop Jaleel Scott down. I think most agree that 2019 is the year of the WR. This is a weak class. I will change my mind on Miller and Ridley if they show out at the combine. I'm supposed to bite on 24 year old rookies? Ridley is higher on my list because he has the highest floor. Ridley and Miller are six and four months younger than Amari Cooper. 

     

    The combine will change some. Just like the senior bowl helped me on Gallup. I'm very interested in Chark testing. 

     

    When evaluating rookies for fantasy I'm looking for the guys who will have the longest sustained success (clearly format affects this to a degree, but not a ton imo). If I was rating this class for next year alone it would look different. Clearly, Washington, Ridley, and Miller are some some of the most polished in this class. I'm evaluating diamonds not rings; I don't care if a player isn't ready to "wear" yet. 


  9. I want to start talking about the 2018 WR rookie class, now that we are to the FF offseason. I find it helpful to have a feel for players prior to knowing they when and where of the draft. Fit will determine ultimate value; this conversation is about the overall talent of players and their potential to succeed. The assumption is that they will land in an average spot. Neither the outlier ideal nor outlier flawed fit. 

     

    This is my initial list. What push back do you have? Who is overrated? Who needs to be moved up? Disclosure: I value youth - size - hands - athleticism - technical skill - production in that order. (eventually fit will be king) This helped me grab JuJu last year. It doesn't always work out well for me; notice that it has greatly affected how I see players like Calvin Ridley and Anthony Miller (he's old). 

     

    1 WR Courtland Sutton SMU
    2 WR Auden Tate Florida State
    3 WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M
    4 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
    5 WR Michael Gallup Colorado St
    6 WR DJ Moore Maryland
    7 WR Richie James Middle Tennesse St
    8 WR Tre'Quan Smith UCF
    9 WR Allen Lazard Iowa St
    10 WR James Washington Oklahoma State
    11 WR Calvin Ridley Alabama
    12 WR Simmie Cobbs Indiana
    13 WR Deontay Burnett USC
    14 WR Antonio Callaway Florida
    15 WR Deon Cain Clemson
    16 WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico
    17 WR Jake Wieneke South Dakota ST
    18 WR DJ Chark LSU
    19 WR Jordan Lasley UCLA
    20 WR Darren Carrington Utah
    21 WR DaeSean Hamilton Penn State
    22 WR Cedrick Wilson Boise ST
    23 WR Anthony Miller Memphis
    24 WR Jester Weah Pittsburgh
    25 WR J'Mon Moore Missouri
    26 WR Trey Quinn SMU
    27 WR Brandon Shed Hobart
    • Like 1

  10. What do you predict for Sony Michel, RB, Georgia in the 2018 NFL draft? When will he be taken? What role will he be asked to fill?

    • 1st/2nd ROUND - Lead Back
    • 1st/2nd ROUND - 3rd Down Back
    • 3rd Round - Lead Back
    • 3rd Round - 3rd Down Back

  11. 1 hour ago, BlakeP42 said:

     

    agree with a lot here Viks.  Come combine time i could see the buzz ramping up a bit.  My feeling on Penny is much the same as i had with Kareem Hunt coming in last year.  Felt like i saw similar flaws to his game but i also felt like i was seeing a very versatile player with the ball in his hands.  Hunt is my best comp for how i view Penny and i have Penny as my #4 RB.(Not sure if anyone else comp'd Penny to Hunt, didn't read the entire thread)    He's a player that FF dynasty owners will need to pay a pretty high premium for i think.  Esp after the combine and possibly the NFL draft.  Im very interested to see who drafts Penny.

     

    I keep trying to figure out the best value in this draft. I like Penny but I'm not willing to pay what he is going to cost. I feel that there will be a lot of players who are going to demand a higher price. I'm hoping that we end up Chubb being the big faller in this FF draft.

    • Like 1

  12. 1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

     

    Well we have to disagree there-  no way they let him go for nothing.    Trading him was of course optimal.   Any players they needed to keep could be restructured, and Mahomes is on a cheap rookie deal.   Guys like Revis either get the scraps or are gone.   DJ is 35 years old- nice to keep as a team leader but not imperative.    

     

    The idea that wsh could have just waited and scooped him for free is far fetched imo. 

     

    I really can't believe that this team made it to 10-6 in 2017. I expected then to fall apart even without drafting Mahomes  (giving up a 1st round pick for 2017).

     

    The Chiefs we're going to trade Smith for whoever they could get. I think Smith at 33 is better than McNabb at 33; Reid traded McNabb in within the division. I don't think they were going to drop Smith because they would have flipped him for something. 

    • Like 1

  13. 1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

    KC wouldn’t have cut Smith though.   Then they REALLY would have had to worry about him signing with Denver.   And gotten nothing in return.    This was the only scenario wsh gets him.    

     

    36 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

     

    They would have likely kept smith short of a great offer.  20M cap hit isn’t that extreme.  Denver supposedly offered Talib and a second rounder which KC flat denied.   Smith was a top 5 qb last season and led the league in big plays (over 50 yards).   Plenty of interest 

     

    Smith wasn't returning in 2018. Reid loves him, but they need the cap room. Revis, Tamba, and probably Derrick Johnson (he could be restructured) will be cut. This team needs to get younger and cheaper. Especially after keeping Bob Sutton.

     

    That Fuller add in helps Mahomes significantly because Smith suffered from an awful secondary. It would be nice for a QB to get a double digit lead and not feel like they are playing from behind. 

     

    I think they need some pass rush to help protect him,  but Mahomes could be very solid next year 4500yds, 30td, 20ints, 63%completion rate, 200 yds on the ground. (Major shot in the dark without knowing the full roster) I expect a receiver and pass protection in the off-season to help Mahomes' side of the ball.


  14. On 1/31/2018 at 7:20 PM, boltup15 said:

     

    Josh Adams easily. Think Latavius Murray who can actually make people miss in the backfield. Mark Walton doesn't do much special in my eyes. Makes some nice highlight reels but Adams will definitely be drafted a couple rounds before Walton. 

     

    3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

     

    This is about right.  Almost reminds me of Latavius Murray the more I think about it.  Lat is a little underrated as a receiver as well.  But when it comes to wiggle and shake, not much there.  Hopefully Adams has better vision, but I haven't seen enough to judge.  Both are tall, upright runners with good breakaway speed.

     

    Sounds like a comp is developing for Josh Adams. 


  15. 2 hours ago, South Carolina said:

     

    In my opinion they should have waited until it got closer to the draft. Mahomes wasn't going anywhere. 

     

    The Chiefs were going to trade putt cut Alex by March 16 to save as much as they could in cap space. The closer they got to that date the less leverage they would have, especially as teams started to solidify their 2018 plans. This deal is 15.5mil in cap, Fuller (cb2), and a mid 3rd.  Fuller and the new rookie take up just over a combined million. Every dollar matters especially for the aging chiefs. This is a play four 2019. Any wins in 2018 is gravy. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

  16. 10 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

     

    I noticed this too.

     

    I do think he's a well rounded player.  Unfortunately for him, there's about 25 well rounded running backs in the league, and maybe 7 or so others in this draft.  Does he do anything exceptionally well?  I don't know.  It's a dog eat dog world and you gotta differentiate yourself somehow.  Maybe he falls far enough that the right team/situation takes him.

     

    There have been plenty of upright runners excel in the nfl. Like you said, theft need to be excellent at something. To his benefit, Adams appears to be durable. Sometimes that is enough. Being healthy allowed Alex Collins to keep his career alive for at least one more season. For will matter a lot for him. Below are my starting notes from glancing at film at perusing articles. I have most of my sources cited:

     

     "***Lacks lateral agility and quickness, and elusiveness. Slow getting going to top speed.*** Physical back, would breaks tackles very well. One cut runner with good power, and decent speed." | DRAFT BLASTER: "A tall, strong runner that draws comparisons to Eric Dickerson in terms of running style, Adams was the heart of the Notre Dame running attack in 2017. Exceptional top end speed coupled with a power running style, Adams is a do it all running back that NFL teams covet. Although the Dickerson comparison is apt, he could use to adjust it so that he can withstand hits better at the next level." | Anthony Amico ROTOVIZ Jan 25: “Josh Adams had a highly-efficient rushing career, averaging 6.7 YPC on 480 attempts. 41 receptions in three seasons isn’t great but certainly could be worse. Adams is 225 pounds, so he may be able to handle more work than his market share of non-QB rush yards would indicate. Still, I would have liked him to come into the draft with more of a workhorse profile.”

    • Like 1

  17. 2 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

     

    Not sure if you have a draft coming up soon or something but where he goes really matters.  The coaching staff will ultimately determine if hits his ceiling.

     

    Also wouldn't be surprised if he's announced as TE/hback on draft night.  

     

    Really intriguing player that could be a matchup nightmare for opposing DCs.

     

    I've heard him compared to a 90s fullback. Which means the way he is utilized really matters. Unfortunately, a lot of the places that could utilize him don't really need him. 


  18. On 1/25/2018 at 11:14 AM, JerrBear80 said:

    I am definitely going to try and trade down out of 1.4, and potentially pick up another pick this year and next. I will see what my options are once we get closer to the draft, and see where some of these prospects land. I am intrigued by Lamarr Jackson, but I just can't envision taking him with my second first round pick. I feel like that would be an extreme reach. QB is a huge need, but I do see Mahomes taking over next year for Alex Smith especially when you factor on them losing to the Titans this year. I could ponteially use my 2.1 to draft a Rosen, Darnold, Mohomes type, but I feel that might be a reach at 2.1 where I could get some good value for players that might of slipped. Makes it tough when you don't have a third round pick... 

    We are still really early on and I keep making drastic changes. This is my current order based on who I really want to draft. Someone like Deontay Burnett is inflated because I really want him. This isn't necessarily because I think they are the best. Just my personal priority. I have a different list for overall talent. I tend to go with my gut a lot on drafting. This makes me a happy man sometimes and other times I overpay. Hope it helps give some perspective to value. I like my receivers big or young. 

    1 RB Saquon Barkley Penn State
    2 RB Derrius Guice LSU
    3 WR Courtland Sutton SMU
    4 RB Nick Chubb Georgia
    5 RB Sony Michel Georgia
    6 RB Ronald Jones USC
    7 WR Auden Tate Florida State
    8 RB Rashaad Penny San Diego St
    9 WR Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
    10 WR Michael Gallup Colorado St
    11 TE Dallas Goedert South Dakota ST
    12 TE/RB Jaylen Samuels North Carolina St
    13 WR Deontay Burnett USC
    14 WR DJ Moore Maryland
    15 RB Royce Freeman Oregon
    16 WR Christian Kirk Texas A&M
    17 RB Kalen Ballage Arizona State
    18 WR Tre'Quan Smith UCF
    19 WR Allen Lazard Iowa St
    20 WR Richie James Middle Tennesse St
    21 WR James Washington Oklahoma State
    22 RB Kerryon Johnson Auburn
    23 WR Calvin Ridley Alabama
    24 RB josh adams Notre Dame
    25 TE Mark Andrews Oklahoma
    26 RB Akrum Wadley Iowa
    27 WR Jaleel Scott New Mexico
    28 WR Antonio Callaway Florida
    29 WR Simmie Cobbs Indiana
    30 RB Mark Walton Miami
    31 WR DaeSean Hamilton Penn State
    32 WR Deon Cain Clemson
    33 WR Jake Wieneke South Dakota ST
    34 WR DJ Chark LSU

  19. 9 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

     

    So I just watched a bit of Samuels film...

     

    Wow.

     

    I'm not sure what he'll be technically classified as position wise in the NFL but he's a weapon.  He reminds me of Aaron Hernandez.

     

    I'd use him all over the field - hback, move TE, rb...

     

    I haven't watched any blocking film of him yet but if you put a guy with his abilities with a creative coach like NO or NE...

     

    I've heard that he has chosen to classify as a RB. He should run a tree and get carries. I just don't know where to rank him.

     

    I think, depending on fit, I will personally draft him high. But I'm willing to swing and miss in hope that I hit a homerun. But as far as ranking him as a prospect in relation to the other backs, idk.


  20. 32 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

    Who's 2?

     

    The common argument is the Sony Michel, Georgia is a superior FF prospect to Guice. Player to player I think talent and skill (talent being raw gifts that can be honed but can't be taught like speed/agility) (skill being coachables like hands, blocking, and patience) I think that the order of those three is Barkley, Guice, and Michel. Guice is the youngest and Barkley is still two years younger than Michel. I love Guice's mentality. I think that he could excel in Baltimore (if they don't stick with Collins), Seatle, Oakland, or Detroit. I especially like Detroit. 

    I am not sold that Barkley is the clear cut #1 dynasty option. 1-on-1 Barkley wins but it isn't a huge gap IMO. LOVE that Barkley is bigger and accelerates faster than Guice. Guice just has an awesome mentality.

    • Like 1

  21. There is chatter that Derrius Guice might be the third best back in this draft. I'm seriously considering Guice ahead of Barkley. I really want to see measurements. Guice isn't an elite blocker like Barkley. He does a good job of making a little out of nothing. He doesn't get caught behind the line much. I feel like these two backs could be like AP and Beast Mode. 


  22. 9 minutes ago, Wild Thing said:

     

    Age would be a tiebreaker for me. I want to pick the better talent in the better system first and foremost

     

    6 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

     

    The system part especially.

     

    After the draft last year we heard a lot about how much Payton loved Kamara and Reid loved Hunt.  That they were specifically targeting those guys.   I kind of dismissed it then but I won't going forward.

     

    1

     

    I think the skill and talent is pretty close on Michel and Guice. Size, measurables, work ethic, and the skillset cancel each other out. They aren't the same skill set but they both excel in particular areas. The scheme is really going to matter. But having a grasp on players helps. I have Guice by one + over Michel just because of age. 


  23.  

    On 1/29/2018 at 7:14 PM, Lord_Varys said:

    My list:

    1. Saquan Barkley

    2. Sony Michel

    3. Derrius Guice

    4. Rashaad Penny

    5. Ronald Jones

    6. Nick Chubb

    7. Kerryon Johnson

     

    I may be the only person who has Michel (5'11" 216#) over Guice (5'11" 218#) and I'm open to the possibility of being wrong.  But I was simply completely awestruck by what I saw in the CFB Playoff games.  His feet are lightning.  He is so fast, so dynamic.  That's nothing against Guice, I just fell in love with what I saw against big time competition.  Both are the perfect size for an RB.  Both are dynamic running and receiving.  I might change my mind of Guice measures better in the 40 and 3 cone at the combine, but just watching Michel dominate against the best of the best put him over the top for me.

    1

     

    17 hours ago, Wild Thing said:

    I like Michel better than Guice too

     

    It will be interesting to see how things shake out. I'm concerned that Michel averaged under 14 carries over three years. I'm also a believer in youth in the draft. Guice [June 21, 1997] is 2 1/3 years younger than Michel [February 17, 1995]. Let's see where they test out; Guice has vision, balance, quickness, power, and speed. Michel is a gifted athlete too, a top-rated prospect out of high school - a good nose for the hole.

     

    Does age make you reconsider position? Michel is 6 months younger than Todd Gurley and six months older than Kareem Hunt.