Lone Marlins Fan

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  1. First draft of the season, tell me how I did!! WHIR

    By the way, there are a lot of players I do like on this team I just wouldn't have taken them all. Love Miggy and Garrett Richards but they both come with worries. I want both my current Marlin and ex-Marlin Ozuna to do well, but they are going way to early in draft in my opinion. Your team does have a boom or bust to it and I am just another opinion that doesn't matter. Hopefully, its a boom.
  2. First draft of the season, tell me how I did!! WHIR

    I will admit I am not very fair with Blackmon. Even if he doesn't put up last year's numbers, he is relatively safe to be a top OF. Realmuto may be a boring safe as he has no lineup around him. .280 avg 15 HR and no counting stats = about every catcher you could have waited on. Unless the 8 steals really pushes him to a Top 5. And Ozuna came out of nowhere last year with a balooned 23% HR/Flyball ratio. He has been a consistent .270 hitter and suddenly with an elevated BABIP while not changing any of his hit ball stats jumps up over 40 points. Drop him down to a .280 hitter with 25-30 HR as a polite ceiling. Pair that with the rest and I am just not seeing it.
  3. Victor Robles 2018 Outlook

    I ranked his HBP as a 60/60 tool. There is something lacking in his approach as back to back 40 walk seasons isn't a lot. Plate discipline is an important part to being at the top of the lineup. Additionally, getting hit by pitches isn't a good thing especially given the injury proneness it is likely to bring. It is a great hitting approach staying with every pitch until it hits the catcher's mitt. It just leaves you out to dry on pitches in. It is tough for a hitter to fix that. Chase Utley lead the league with HBPs for 3 straight seasons and played nearly full seasons in all 3 so it is possible it doesn't have an effect. It is also possible that he takes a fastball of the hand and is Trea Turner'ed. It is difficult to be Harper's backup plan when you may need a backup plan yourself.
  4. Danny Salazar 2018 Outlook

    This statistic has fulled me every year. He has the BEST strikeout potential of any pitcher in baseball. His swinging whiff % (Baseball Prospectus) is always the top 10 among SP. I always tell myself that his walks can be outdone by his stuff. The problem is his consistency. He doesn't spread out his issues. He will pitch 5 innings 3 hits 2 BB 8 Ks. He will enter the 6th walk 2 batters, hang two fastballs over the plate. And his line will suddenly be 5 innings 5 hits 4 BBs 8 Ks and 3ER. You will grown and say "He got me again". At this point I think it is a composure thing. Which means when he starts pitching bad, he implodes. It can be identified in stats, but don't let him fool you. He can do more damage to your weekly stat lines than good.
  5. First draft of the season, tell me how I did!! WHIR

    Agree! Did you take a safe stock in the entire bunch other than Machado? You have a lot of players coming off career years. Others with huge question marks. I like to take flyers on some of these guys, but you took flyers on all of them. This is a boom or bust team. I think it is going to bust. Sorry lad. You're on the outside looking in.
  6. Pick a slugger: Trevor Story vs Joey Gallo. whir

    I am going against the grain as I always choose to go. Both teams have plenty of up and comings and could replace either if they are not playing well so job security is mute to me. The think I like about Gallo is he walks a bit more. With that said, his BABIP that everything thinks is going to recover and make him more of a .250 hitter isn't happening. His flyball % was over 50% which is the lowest outcome for BA other than a strikeout which he also does a ton. I know both may look at them as swing and miss guys and the stats show them relatively identical. Story had a swinging strike percentage of 14.1%. Gallo was 19.2% ! And that was a good year. His past two were over 20%. I have more faith on Story having a better year and Gallo having a worse year. Add SS to Story and he gets the easy win.
  7. Final two keepers?

    I agree with the Benintendi without even thinking to give you 6. They are correct about Schoop's OBP, however, I disagree and think his other stats make him a keeper. .290 90/30/100 at 2B is not a keeper because he doesn't walk is a bit absurd to me. Paxton has burned me twice with injuries and though he is good when healthy, I am not sure when that actually is. I would take Chapman as my final spot.
  8. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    His HR rates have decreased but his hit quality tools really haven't. His Batted Ball distance actually when up from 2015 when he hit 19 HR this past year despite only hitting 2017. AT&T Park is dreadful, and the 20 end of that may be an aggressive prediction. I saw we compromise at 15 HR.
  9. Welington Castillo 2018 Outlook

    I like and hate the Duke of Welington. I love his hit tool and think with that alone he is an impact catcher and can land Top 5 if given adequate playing time. I HATE his approach at the plate. The man only walks when he decides to rest his arms for the next at bat and the pitcher can't hit the strike zone. This will of course limit his ability to score runs, but the average and power are real. His Hard hit% and LD% are great. The ballpark should help as well. Sleeper.
  10. Buster Posey 2018 Outlook

    Catchers do wear and tear quicker because of the stress of the position on the body, but Buster Posey really hasn't fallen off that far from what he already was. The power was at a low this past year as 12 HR isn't ideal. When he was a 20 HR guy playing every day, and there was little other competition, he became a Tier of his own. His counting stats were way down last season because the Giants were awful. With a better supporting cast this year, I see those stats rising maybe 15-20 HR as his Hard Hit really hasn't gone down much. He will be the old Buster Posey, but he is just overshadowed now by the performance of catchers that possess greater power while still having a decent average. This isn't as much of Posey falling off, but others providing just as good as options. His .300+ batting average is still elite and shouldn't be underrated, but some value a 25 HR guy with a .270-.280 guy.
  11. A little 1st round draft help...WHIR

    I agree with your strategy. I would take the pitchers if they fell or Rizzo based on the 2B eligibility (which by the way, is one of the dumbest things in fantasy baseball) is definitely worth the pick. He alone gives teams a huge boost over the rest of a mediocre 2B class.
  12. Nolan Arenado 2018 Outlook

    Elite to good is a stretch. Coors obviously helps every hitter so there is no denying it would not have a positive effect not having that as your home park. Last year he hit 19 HR at home and 18 HR away. In 2015, he hit 20 HR at home and 22 HR away. I left out 2016 on purpose because he was it ruins my point with 25 HR home vs 16 HR away. The idea is, the power splits show the power translates everywhere. His batting average would take the biggest hit, he may become a .280 hitter with 40HR hitting for a contender which means massive counting stats. That to me is still 1st round talent!
  13. Heliot Ramos OF SF

    I completely agree here. The K-rate was about the only not pretty stat. He displayed good speed, power, and batting average despite that at 17 in a short clip at Rookie ball. If he can work on his approach at the plate and cut down the K-rate at 18 years old, easily projects into the Top 20 prospect category. Ceiling could be 20/40 player. Get excited!
  14. Austin Meadows - OF PIT

    He didn't prove last year that he could handle AAA pitching yet alone MLB pitching for this season. Austin Meadows has been in the Top 100 for 5 straight years. Talk about a player people aren't willing to give up on. I personally see his ceiling as a Gregory Polanco. Fangraphs has his opposite field hits at above 40%. His projected power is that of a 20-25 guy. With that approach at the plate, I don't see that happening. I think he just remains that player that we all want more from but just never get it. He becomes a quality player but not the All-Star everyone expected. Gregory Polanco.
  15. James Kaprielian - SP NYY

    I don't know if it is necessarily forgotten about more so than it being difficult to evaluate and grade him as a Top 100 over some of the other players on the list until he returns and shows he is healthy after TJ. Braxton Garrett is another name not being thrown in the Top 100 by most and I understand it. You have both the concern of velocity decrease along with the necessary time to establish a feel for your off-speed pitches again. I still like Kaprielian and have him scouted in a deeper dynasty league, but there are plenty of great arms without those concerns to put in the rankings.