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En Votto Veritas

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  1. 2019 Sleepers

    Looks like you may be beyond this in the draft, but is Adam Frazier still there? Dude is cash money especially in a points league. Kendrys Morales is as solid as they come. Dustin Pedroia is an injury-machine but when healthy he will provide top 100 production in a points league. Yandy Diaz has a big bat. Chris Paddack could return huge depending on the number of starts he gets. Danny Salazar is injured to start the year but may replace Beiber in CLE when he returns, dude can throw. Finally, Nick Martini doesn't have a starting job in OAK but shows good plate discipline and--if he can work into more than the 250 projected ABs--could provide good and cheap value.
  2. Joey Votto 2019 Outlook

    Well, to be fair anyone can argue anything, the point is that some arguments are better than others. You say that Votto "won't be dominant in any one category" indicating that your argument centers around a 1B (or perhaps any player) being dominant in a category. But then you say that the following guys are better values, in spite of the fact that no one is dominant in any one category. I mean, let's do this because these guys can be grouped very easily: Guys who will give you a slight edge in HR/RBI but will tank your BA: Hoskins, EE, Olson. Guys who are literally worse than Votto in every stat: Carp, Aguilar, Murphy. Hey look, it's Joey Votto: Votto, Abreu. And Bellinger, who likely should be taken ahead of Votto due to upside and steals.
  3. Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

    That's cool, but Smoak could very well put up that exact line (Smoak hit .270 in 2017). And if he doesn't, let's say Smoak puts up the low projection of .245 - 25 - 80 - 80 and let's say that Aguilar hits your projection above, well you're paying 150 picks for .015 - 5 - 20. Aguilar isn't Jose Abreu, but I feel like the hype wants to claim he's gonna put up Abreu numbers (.275, 30+, 100+). I'm down to see some arguments that he is Abreu-like, but if he isn't then he's simply not worth the ADP because you can get nearly all his production 150 picks later with a guy like Smoak.
  4. Andrew Benintendi 2019 Outlook

    I had Beni last year and definitely experienced that second half slump. 2018 splits: 1st half: .297/.380 - 14 - 57 - 68 - 17 2nd half: .279/.343 - 2 - 30 - 35 - 4 The second half saw both his K% and BB% fall yet his K/BB stayed the same. Looking deeper, in the second half he started hitting a lot more ground balls: 37.7% in 1st, 45.4% in 2nd. But the biggest difference is a 12.7% HR/FB in the 1st to a tiny 3.3% in the second. So personally I think it's streaky/fluky weirdness. He'll be leading off for BOS this season, arguably the best place to hit in all of baseball. .285/.360 - 15 - 70 - 100 - 20 looks like the floor for Beni in 2019.
  5. Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

    That's what I said, then I looked it over and all the projections are nearly identical. Here's Steamer's, for example: Aguilar: .242/.317 - 28 - 84 - 71 Smoak: .239/.336 - 26 - 80 - 76 You can look them all over but basically Aguilar gets a handful more HRs and RBIs while Smoak gets better OBP. Is that worth 150 ADP difference?
  6. Jesus Aguilar 2019 Outlook

    Justin Smoak called and he wants this thread to know that he's available an astonishing 150 picks behind Aguilar. Yes, that's one hundred and fifty picks later in NFBC ADP (Aguilar #80, Smoak #238) and for likely a very similar stat line. Just sayin...
  7. Andrew Benintendi 2019 Outlook

    Dude is a s.t.u.d. muffin. As @SuperJoint rightly notes he gets a boost in roto over H2H due to his streakiness but man, does he pack a stat sheet at the end of the season. OBP leagues or points leagues too as he's taking walks and dunking doubles like he's trying to be Joey Votto. Easy 2nd round pick all day.
  8. 2019 Sleepers

    For HLDs I like Rosenthal a lot. Former closer with pure heat, the clear 8th inning option in front of Doolittle who seems injury prone. I like Pressly a lot in HLD leagues as well. The PHI pen is crowded but Neshek could be a sneaky (and cheap) source of HLDs and ridiculous ratios. Most high-end middle relievers offer good HLD value with ratios and a nice K/9 to boot.
  9. 2019 Sleepers

    You don't say. I, for one, am astonished that a top 10 SP would be more valuable than a last round flier for stability. I mean, really, shocked. Do you also think that most top-3 Roto teams had Acuna on them and not Bundy? I never thought about this before. So, you're saying that most teams that win had guys like Bregman, Machado, Freeman, Trout, and Betts? And you're saying that they didn't have Joe Panik, Albert Amora Jr, and Freddy Galvis? Really? I mean, really? They didn't have Freddy Galvis? How do you win without guys like Freddy Galvis? Seriously though, that is perhaps the worst argument you could bring to this thread. No one is comparing Snell to KM and no one wants to. All I said was that guys like KM have a place in fantasy baseball. You seem to be arguing that they do not have a place anywhere, which is odd given that this is a game wherein we collect statistics and a guy who produces statistics by definition has value. If he doesn't have value ***for you*** then just say so, but don't try and argue all out that he's worthless.
  10. 2019 Sleepers

    To quote Anchorman, "that doesn't make sense." It's just too blanket a statement. If your draft leaves you with a bunch of very solid, non injury prone, stable players, then yes gamble on the upside hard at the end of the draft. If, on the other hand, your draft leaves you with a bunch of high upside high risk type guys, then a KM may look real nice in the last round. Every draft pick is context-dependent and every strategy is only applicable in the right context. 1-dimensional veterans have their place in the game, as do young flash-in-the-pan guys, and everyone in between.
  11. Starling Marte 2019 Outlook

    I owned Marte last year because he fell to me at the right time in the draft, so I can say that--last season at least--he is streaky as all hell. Now I don't know how to see weekly splits, but the monthly splits tell you a lot. Examples: Mar/Apr he walked 14 times to 23 Ks. Those were almost half his walks for the entire season while he continued to K at that rate. 7 of his 20 HRs came in the month of July, where he hit a silly .341/.371. June was his worst month, he hit .194/.245 with 18 hits and 6 BBs. And yet, in those meager 24 times on base he stole 8 bases to 1 CS. So if I'm playing a roto 5X5 I may not discount him as it's the end stats that matter. But if I'm in H2H, and those are the leagues I play in, I may pass on Marte at #38 for Robles at #101, Pham at #63, or even Inciarte at #139.
  12. Jesse Winker 2019 Outlook

  13. Kenta Maeda 2019 Outlook

    Love Maeda when he plays. It all comes down to how many starts he gets. The LA staff is deep and we have learned that there's no issue with dropping a guy to the pen whenever the moon is angled right. Lol note how there are four LA SPs on that list and none are named Kershaw. Still, at ADP 231 (ranked 190 in Yahoo), I think there's value to be had here.
  14. Rafael Devers 2019 Outlook

    Devers is likely the 18th (!) 3B off the board, meaning that in very few leagues will he be the starting 3B on a team. He also happens to form the very clear beginning of a new tier after Myers and Profar in the 115s and Devers and Moose at 150. Personally, I'm not that interested in him as a bench bat so will likely have few shares of him this year. I'd rather have a guy who can slot in at multiple positions and gamble on upside later. I mean, if he doesn't break out and merely improves, you get .260, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 75 R, 8 SB. Sano can give you those numbers, without the handful of SBs, at pick 226. Seager is going at 241 and will give you that power but sap your AVG in the process. I'm just saying that you're paying for the breakout because a modest improvement on 2018 doesn't looking *that* good.
  15. Javier Baez 2019 Outlook

    Everything under the hood with Baez says that last season was likely his ceiling as a hitter. On the other hand, you can get Bregman or Machado for the same price, players whose ceilings likely haven't been reached yet. I love players like him in fantasy because they draw in managers who overpay, leaving good value to be had in the process.