En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Anyone do this? I waited to write this thread until after my 16 team league draft so I could get Frazier in the late rounds. I know it's stupid, but it happened. I love this guy hitting lead off in PIT with Marte/Bell/Dickerson and crew behind. If he can hit .275/.335 (looks like his floor) he should see 80 runs easy. Doesn't strike out much (~15%) and walks at a decent clip (8+%). And if you're in a points league or a league that counts a lot of stats, then he's pure gold as he mashes doubles and will toss in 5+ triples to boot. @Flyman75 says .280-90-15-60-10 and I think that looks good. I also think he can eclipse 100 runs if Bell comes to form and Kang performs well. Oh and in Yahoo he qualifies at 2B and OF so that's cool too. Sneaky pick here.
  2. Also, I don't know much about Cessa but the projections for him are pretty mediocre. This said, he's throwing filth this spring: 18/1 K/BB in 17 IP.
  3. The Knebel situation doesn't look good. Let's say in best case scenario he rehabs well and comes back feeling fine. Well: - MIL may have signed Kimbrel so no closing for Knebel. - Jeffress will have had ample time to establish himself as the closer. - Hader will likely remain in fireman role, but MIL could go to a Hader/Jeffress closer/fireman duo. There are just too many question marks here, and that's best case. Worst case the injury requires TJ. Second worst case it's harder to rehab than expected. Etc. etc. So if I had the DL space I'd certainly stash him until further notice, but if there's a guy on the WW that I want I would feel confident dropping Knebel outright.
  4. There are a lot of reasons why one may wish to start a relief pitcher if a starter spot in fantasy baseball. These guys need not be closers to provide value, they can help with ratios, extra Ks, or if you play with more than the standard 5X5 stats they can provide HLDs and high K/9. They can be straight up mid-RPs or starters waiting to get a spot in the rotation. For reference, in Yahoo leagues last season gave us the likes of Will Smith (SP/RP - SF) and Jordan Hicks (SP/RP - Stl); note that both only have RP eligibility this year. Who is available this year and worth targetting? So far I see: Diego Castillo (TB) Seth Lugo (NYM) Ryne Stanek (TB) Caleb Ferguson (LAD) Carlos Martinez (STL) may start in the pen and is currently injured. Sergio Romo (TB) Brandon Woodruff (MIL) is currently battling for a rotation spot. Josh James (HOU) will likely start in the pen as Peacock seems to have grabbed the last spot. Jonathan Loaisiga (NYY). Manager said he should get 100 IP this season, but there's nowhere for him to start. Who did I miss?
  5. Go bold or go home: Hitting in the two-hole for ATL, behind Inciarte and ahead of Freeman, Acuna, Markakis, and Albies, Josh Donaldson stays healthy and plays a full season. In this full season of 600+ ABs, he goes .285/.390 with 35 HR, 100 RBI, 120 R, and 10 SB. In doing so, he outproduces everyone else on the Braves. I'll go home now.
  6. Have patience. Spring training is all about hype and gloom depending on whether a guy "looks thin" or "put on weight" or whatever. Ozuna has pedigree, is at a good age, has a tremendous lineup around him, and good coaches; patience is needed here. And perhaps have another OF you'd feel comfortable starting on your UTIL or B just in case. Some dude just dropped him in a 16 team league I'm in so this tells you how serious the anxiety is running through the fantasy community.
  7. I'm all in on Taylor Rogers (RP - Min). Lefty will likely be a specialist, which means an excellent chance at lots of HLDs and a potential vulture SV or two. His second half in 2018 was absurd fire: 28.2 IP, 0.94 ERA, 0.66 WHIP, 35 K, 8 BB, 11 hits, .120 BAA. Just disgusting. He obviously won't maintain that over a full season but 60 IP, sub 2 ERA, sub 1 WHIP, 70+ Ks, 20+ HLDs is in reach. Also he's practically free.
  8. Judge isn't normally the type of hitter I like to draft but he fell to me at the turn pick 16 in a league that counts AVG, OBP, BB, and K. The HRs and RBIs are a bit of a given, but I look forward to seeing if he can maintain the .275+ AVG. Any insight as to why most of the projections have him at .250-.260?
  9. Nimmo has more power and Eaton better average, but yes they profile similarly. I wouldn't say he's a "good" Eaton, perhaps a healthy one? Eaton would be a fantastic fantasy asset if he could stay on the field. At about Nimmo's age Eaton put up a tight full season line of .287/.361 - 14 - 56 - 98 - 18. So -.24 AVG, +.40 OBP, -9 SB, and +3 HRs in 150 less ABs and you've got Nimmo. Nimmo may be better in a full season other than the average as he doesn't project to hit consistently above .265.
  10. Not only that, he's practically guaranteed 100 runs if he remains leading off for NYM. So .260/.400 - 17 - 60 - 100 - 10 is a pretty decent line in a standard league, and gold in OBP. And if you play in a points league it's even better as he walks a ton, gets hit by a ton of pitches, and doubles and triples like a boss. Dude is straight money in all but the most boring missionary position leagues.
  11. Nothing to see here folks. Mac strikes out at nearly 30%, and as @SpartyOn4 notes above, hits the ball on the ground over half the time. He also pulls the ball nearly half the time, meaning that teams will eventually put the shift on him. Then there's the concussion. Then there's the crowded outfield with Duggar, Parra, Maybin, and Ramos, Shaw, Slater, and Garcia in AAA. The Giants have maybe one season left before a full rebuild and a 28 year old OF with a huge hole in his swing isn't going to be a part of it. There are simply far more exciting late round OF fliers than this guy. This is correct, and I think very generous. I think .220 - 20 - 60 is more like it and that just doesn't play.
  12. I can't imagine they traded for this guy only to hit him 6th. He is a switch hitter who doesn't strike out much and walks at a decent clip. Hitting in front of Chapman, Olson, Davis, and Piscotty is, well, a very nice place to be. I think he's good value at his current ADP.
  13. Bump due to the following info: This likely means that Nimmo will hit somewhere in the top of the order if not lead off, making him a very solid bet for 100 runs. I'm in.
  14. Well he went from perhaps hitting second to definitely hitting 7th so that hurts his counting stats pretty hard. Probably not much to see here in 2019 as he adjusts to the league and pitchers to him, but 2020 is whole different story. Good contact hitter with good plate discipline hitting in a young and powerful lineup, he could be a great sleeper going into next season.
  15. His name has been popping up all over Twitter as a great OF sleeper. I'm not sure I see the appeal but the 2018 splits are clear: 1st half: .210 AVG, .297 OBP, .345 SLG, .135 ISO 2nd half: .269 AVG, .340 OBP, .487 SLG, .218 ISO If he can replicate the second half over a full season he could go .265/.340 with 20 HRs, 15 bags, and 150 RBI/R. Not bad for an ADP of 228.
  16. Power, no. He likely has a 15 HR ceiling. Speed, on the other hand, he has room to grow. He played through the second half of last year with a broken foot which curbed his speed so looking at the first half where he stole 14 with only 2 CS, he could push 30 in a full healthy season. I'm not betting on it; I projected 20+ in the OP, but he definitely can swipe more than 20 bags pretty easily if healthy. Now in a standard 5X5 one might consider Rosario a better choice as he'll likely provide more speed, even Polanco is an interesting later round SS for standard leagues, but I don't think Cesar gets a fair shake.
  17. I rolled with Hicks for a good portion of last season due to his consistent ABs. This said, I'll be looking elsewhere this year for grab-bag C targets. I like Narvaez and Lucroy right now for last round fliers.
  18. Myers is a classic category filling, AVG/OBP draining, injury-prone headache. I just can't get behind buying into this potential dumpster fire when the ceiling is .260/.340. He's only played a full season 1/3rd of the time. So you're gambling and it's not looking like a good bet unless you get a bunch of high AVG/OBP guys early (Freeman/Altuve/Rendon, etc). Even then, I'd rather gamble on Ramon Laureano 80 picks after Myers.
  19. Cesar Segura Harper Realmulto Hoskins Cutch Franco Herrera Yikes. Looking over ZiPS projections, and this is kinda crazy, not a single hitter here would have a projected OBP under .300. You could swap Cutch and Cesar, but you'd sacrifice a fair amount of speed in doing so and I feel like Cutch is a better pure hitter, someone I'd want coming up in the 6 spot with these guys ahead of him.
  20. Manny's is one of the more consistent hitters in the game, which means his floor is pretty rock solid. I'm happy drafting him where he's going, but I'm wondering about the counting stats in SD. RosterResource has him hitting 2nd (which seems odd as I'd assume he'd hit 3rd) with Kinsler in front. I think he's pretty much good for 100 runs with Hosmer, Myers, Renfroe/Cordero/Mejia behind him, but where will the RBIs come from?
  21. I think the point is that his move to SEA is a bad thing given his historical numbers.
  22. I like keeping 1-2 "swiss army knives" on my bench, and Camargo is a great pick for a super-util guy late in drafts. He comes with 3B and SS eligibility in Yahoo and one must assume will get OF soon enough, possibly even 2B. Remember that this season will be a long one for teams and there will be more days off than previous, resulting in fantasy managers needing to shuffle guys around to get starters in their lineup. With this in mind, guys like Camargo are extra valuable because their versatility means you need carry less bench hitters to fill playing time gaps. Camargo, Wendle, Marwin, Hernan Perez, Kingery are all guys I like depending on league depth and settings. Any others I missed?
  23. Looks like you may be beyond this in the draft, but is Adam Frazier still there? Dude is cash money especially in a points league. Kendrys Morales is as solid as they come. Dustin Pedroia is an injury-machine but when healthy he will provide top 100 production in a points league. Yandy Diaz has a big bat. Chris Paddack could return huge depending on the number of starts he gets. Danny Salazar is injured to start the year but may replace Beiber in CLE when he returns, dude can throw. Finally, Nick Martini doesn't have a starting job in OAK but shows good plate discipline and--if he can work into more than the 250 projected ABs--could provide good and cheap value.
  24. Well, to be fair anyone can argue anything, the point is that some arguments are better than others. You say that Votto "won't be dominant in any one category" indicating that your argument centers around a 1B (or perhaps any player) being dominant in a category. But then you say that the following guys are better values, in spite of the fact that no one is dominant in any one category. I mean, let's do this because these guys can be grouped very easily: Guys who will give you a slight edge in HR/RBI but will tank your BA: Hoskins, EE, Olson. Guys who are literally worse than Votto in every stat: Carp, Aguilar, Murphy. Hey look, it's Joey Votto: Votto, Abreu. And Bellinger, who likely should be taken ahead of Votto due to upside and steals.
  25. That's cool, but Smoak could very well put up that exact line (Smoak hit .270 in 2017). And if he doesn't, let's say Smoak puts up the low projection of .245 - 25 - 80 - 80 and let's say that Aguilar hits your projection above, well you're paying 150 picks for .015 - 5 - 20. Aguilar isn't Jose Abreu, but I feel like the hype wants to claim he's gonna put up Abreu numbers (.275, 30+, 100+). I'm down to see some arguments that he is Abreu-like, but if he isn't then he's simply not worth the ADP because you can get nearly all his production 150 picks later with a guy like Smoak.