En Votto Veritas

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Posts posted by En Votto Veritas


  1. I don't like the trade at all but "shady" it isn't.  Just bad.  You could argue that Cain is nearly waiver-wire fodder at this point, JoRam is SB only, and Noah is good but not producing like expected.  CJ is consistent, Albies could turn it around, Pham is $ and Woodruff could be an ace in the making.  So I don't think the trade is vetoable, if that's what you're asking.  It's ugly because yes the 1st place team is stealing a potential top 10 player and a top 10 pitcher, but just because it's ugly doesn't mean it should be kept in the shade.  If that makes sense.

    • Like 2

  2. 1. I like the Snell/Mookie trade for you.

    2. Chavis/Lucc/Pivetta are the obvious drop candidates whenever Judge/Clev come back, but I'd wait and see how the game unfolds in the meantime.  I find that often when a guy is coming off the DL another guy gets hurt and you can swap, no need to plan this type of thing.

    3. I'm hesitant about this trade.  Puig heats up with the weather and could match Marte's overall production, while I don't think Bassitt matches Soroka's production over the ROS.  Your lineup is pretty stacked and Marte gets you some extra SBs and possibly some 3Bs, but you did just get Betts.  Your SPs are good but not stacked, so why hurt the weak side of your team?

     

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  3. I am in a keeper league with a lot of stats and am having a hard time gauging these three young 2Bs for the future.

    Stats: AB, R, 1B, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, PO, A, E, AVG, OBP

    This setup means good contact players with low K rates and high BB rates are more valuable than big power guys.  For comparison's sake, Moustakas is currently ranked 103 while Jeff McNeil is ranked 151.  By the end of the year it is likely McNeil will outrank Moose by 40 spots.  So my question is, for this season and beyond, which 2B would be most valuable in this context?  All three are currently available and I am leaning towards Urias for the above-mentioned reasons (I think his hit set is best).  Hiura's K-rate concerns me and Biggio seems the fastest but perhaps not the most complete hitter.  This said, I'm not good with prospects. 

    I get 4 keepers, and my others are Freeman, Lindor, and either Bell, J Polanco, Bauer, or one of these 2Bs.  Help?  Also leave a link and I'll get to it within a day or so.


  4. 1 minute ago, mtblock said:

    The problem isn't that he goes through slumps, its that when he does, he provides NOTHING. He doesn't hit for power, and he doesn't steal bases. RBIs are very low. If he is not providing average or OBP, then its nothing. 

     

    Well you aren't starting McNeil for HRs or SBs are you?  You're starting him for Rs and AVG, or if you play in a non-standard league for OBP and hits.  So when he slumps he's going to not provide... the thing you were counting on him to provide...  that's what a slump is.

     

    These are human baseball players, not machines.  The notion that they will provide you with a certain amount of X, Y, or Z, and should they slump they will still provide M, N, or P, is ridiculous.  Roll with the slump, bench him for a week and wait it out, and move a bench guy into his starting spot.  You should have a guy ready to go on your bench for just such situations, no?

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  5. 2 hours ago, kingdavid206 said:

    I just heard Jerry Dipoto on the radio just now. He said Mallex has been working with not only Mike Cameron but also Ichiro on both sides of the ball. They were able to zone in on a few of his various tendencies. Let's all hope he learned some good knowledge from both of them.

    tenor.gif

    • Like 2

  6. 1 hour ago, DownSouthWolverine said:

    On the bench two days in a row?  Hah, sorry, that’s droppable.  Especially sitting vs a RHP.

     

    🙄

    Over the past 14 days, Winker has gone .295/.392 with 3 HRs and 11 Rs.  Frankly, I don't know how you win any leagues with the above type of approach.


  7. 7 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

    To use your analogy, that's like if Votto said he only wanted to pinch hit when there were runners in scoring position.

     

    I've heard that Votto offers to pinch hit for other teams in other games.

    • Haha 1

  8. Dude has a clean K:BB ratio and a squeaky WHIP on the year. I'm not worried about the first month of the season re: ERA and W. The ERA will balance out with more starts and the Ws will come, though 15 is probably his ceiling with the current IP situation. 


  9. Here's what I wrote on him a while back:

    On 1/16/2019 at 3:36 PM, En Votto Veritas said:

    So in 2019 we're looking at about 8 catchers who will be drafted in the first 150 picks and then a giant pile of who cares.  When it comes to C, you either aim for one of the top 8 or you wait.  This post is for those who wait and thanks to @murraygd13 for reminding me about this dude a few posts back.


    Deep sleeper: Omar Narvaez (C - SEA)

     

    1. Narvaez current ADP via NFBC is 341.61 and he's C25.  So in a standard 12 team league he's being taken in round 28.  So not at all. 

    2. He has a starting job in SEA and no real competition (David Freitas is the other SEA catcher).  Keep in mind that SEA dealt their set-up guy Colome for Narvaez, so he's definitely going to get the chance for a full season of catcher ABs.

    3. He will hit in the lower third of the order, but likely in the 7 spot and possibly even the 6 spot if he hits well enough.  RosterResource says he'll have Domingo Santana, Seager, EE, Bruce, Haniger, and M Smith in front of him, and T Beckham and Gordon behind.  Not great, but not terrible either.

    4. In 634 MLB ABs, Narvaez holds a .274 AVG, .366 OBP, .379 SLG.  He walks around 12% of the time and Ks around 18%.  Other than the SLG, those are sexy numbers and are largely consistent with his minor league production.

    5. He spreads the ball evenly: Pull/Cent/Opp 34/37/28, but he's not hitting very hard (or soft): Soft/Med/Hard 18/53/28.

     

    Steamer projection: 414 PA, .249/.332 - 7 HR - 39 RBI - 41 R - 2 SB

    BaseballReference proj: 391 PA, .268/.354 - 8 HR - 33 RBI - 38 R - 1 SB

     

    I think he gets those PA/ABs, but I fail to see the logic behind Steamer's AVG/OBP projection.  I say he goes: .270/.360 - 7 HR - 45 RBI - 40 R.  When you're gambling for a C you want a guy who won't hurt you and Narvaez is just that: a C that can hit for AVG.  If you're in an OBP league or points league it's even better.  Keep in mind that the bunch of catchers are all projected for a 7 - 40 - 40 line, but most hit .250 or lower.  Narvaez is a sneaky play late in the draft.

     

    Looks like the power is showing up a bit more than I anticipated.  This said, he's walking less (7.2%) and K-ing more (23.2%).  Still, those aren't bad for the late round C fliers.  .270/.360 - 15 - 60 - 60 is my updated prediction.


  10. What are our thoughts on Roenis Elias, the 30-year old lefty who is currently in a committee with Swarzak and others?

    2019: 12.2 IP, 10:4 K:BB, 2.84 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3 SV, 1 HLD.

    Looks like he's a converted starter, having been sent to the pen in 2016 at some point.  Looking through his career numbers it doesn't look great, but then I split for starter/reliever and it looks better.  Career splits below:

    Starter: 297 IP, 4.15 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 256 K, 115 BB.
    Reliever: 52.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 31 K, 19 BB.

    What does the future hold?
    Well he's a lefty in a committee so he may not get all the opps, but will likely get all that involve two out of three batters being lefties and so forth.  Given that SEA's offense is clicking (Narvaez ftw) there should be a good amount of opps to be had.  I hate predicting saves but the ratios look like he could settle in at 3.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  He also has the coveted SP/RP status in Yahoo.  Who knows what will happen with SEA pen, though; watch them go out and sign Kimbrel.

    • Like 1