En Votto Veritas

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Posts posted by En Votto Veritas


  1. 55 minutes ago, Just_A_PI said:

    I'm wondering if he will even be drafted before the 10th round next season.

    I doubt it.  Miggy was going in the 12th or so this season and Votto is arguably looking worse headed into 2020.  This said, I think he makes a good 2nd UTIL play in most leagues if his ADP falls into the teens.


  2. There's a lot of youth hype in the league right now.  Guys like Acuna and Soto came onto the scene basically already elite, and now Alvarez, Bichette, Tatis, Alonso, etc are all running on those coat tails.  Truth is the majority of fantasy managers vastly overpay for youth.  Just look at JoRam who is only 25 years old and who is chopped liver after a bad half season.  For example, in CBS' 2020 first two rounds, Alvarez and JoRam are both listed in the "notable omissions," which is odd given that JoRam has had exactly one bad half over a number of years while Alvarez has had exactly one good half, period. 

    Ultimately there will be someone in every league who reaches for guys like Alvarez and thereby makes the decision easy, as the question of where to draft him is taken away.  The real question is who slips due to people reaching.

    • Like 1

  3. JoRam is going to be the biggest steal of the draft next year.

     

    Dude is a consensus top 5 pick, young and a virtual lock for 30-30, has a terrible first half and comes back to form in the second only to be injured... and now is an after thought in the first two rounds?

     

    Looking at these rankings one could theoretically draft in the first three picks only to see JoRam come to you at 22-24. Fantasy managers have some of the shortest memories.

     

    • Like 1

  4. I'm not confident but I'm starting him.  Since going to CIN he's played lights-out at home and been an absolute trash heap dumpster fire on the road.  In fact, his line at Great American Ballpark (CIN stadium) is filthy: 3 GS, 21 IP, 31:6 K:BB, 1.71 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, .160 BAA.

    • Like 1

  5. 17 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

    "He didn't hit homers in the minors, so he won't in MLB," is also a terrible argument. Neither did Francisco Lindor, Gleyber Torres, Ozzie Albies or Ketel Marte, just to name a few. Highly-skilled youngsters grow into power as they get older all the time, especially in the current offensive environment.

    Bichette is an elite prospect. Scouts have rated his power potential highly for years, and his exit velocities support that. It's not a shock that he's hitting home runs. He probably won't hit 40 next year, but 25-30 wouldn't be a huge surprise.

     

    I agree with you fully that "Highly-skilled youngsters grow into power as they get older all the time, especially in the current offensive environment."

    Note though that "over time" is important.  Torres doesn't profile at all like Bichette, so the comparison seems weak.  Lindor is a better comp, and he hit 12 in 438 PAs his first year, 15 in 684 his second.  Albies is another good comp, and in his first season he hit 6 in 244, and 24 in his second.  Marte hit 2/1/5 in his first three seasons. 

    But that wasn't the argument being made.  The argument being made was that Bo is on pace for 40+ HRs so why profile him at 15.  My counter-argument is his history and small sample size.  I fully believe that Bo could grow into a 30 HR hitter, but projecting that for next year seems rather risky.  This is why I was asking for thoughts on what 2020 holds for the youngster. 

    Also, apologies for the snarkiness of the previous comment.  Was in the middle of something else when I read the reply and it carried through.

    • Like 1

  6. 4 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

    he has 8 homeruns in 114 ABs so yea 15 homeruns seems spot on over the course of a season.

     

    Hey great point.  You know Mike Ford has 8 home runs in 97 ABs so they both probably will hit more than 40 HRs next season.  🤨

    Bichette has literally no history of this kind of power, is hitting at an astronomical .416 BABIP, and a silly 27.6% HR/FB. 

    But I'm glad you made this terrible point because these types of arguments are what help fantasy managers crazy overpay for 100 ABs, allowing other fantasy managers to sell really high.

    • Like 1

  7. I'd like to know what he projects out to be over a full season.  Certainly his current production is unsustainable, so what does 162 games look like next year?  Looking over his minors numbers I'm guessing: .270/.340 with 15 HR and 20 SB.  He'll hit a ton of doubles, easily 30+ each year, but I don't see much in the AVG/OBP areas.  Thoughts?


  8. 1 minute ago, michaelai3 said:

    1B is actually very thin this year. Don't know why Canha gets no fanfare at all.

    Pitcherlist.com has him in nearly every Add/Drop and Hitter Recap column. I think they did a deep dive on him as well. But otherwise yeah, crickets. 

    Dude is extra valuable in OBP and points leagues btw, walks at a good clip. 


  9. RosterResource has the new lineup as:

    Lindor-Mercado-Santana-Puig-JoRam-Franmil-Kipnis-Perez-Naquin

    I think JoRam and Santana may get flopped as the former is on complete fire, but either way you look at it that 1 through 6 is disgusting.  I think Santana benefits the most from all this as he's already a super patient hitter but now he's gonna see a lot more good pitches to hit.


  10. 39 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

    All he does is hit.  This kid every day?

     

    He's started the past ten games and is hitting .348/.414 over the past month with 89 ABs, usually at 3B or 2B.  The highest he seems to hit in the order lately is 6th, but with this type of production it's only a matter of time before he gets some looks near the top of the order.  That said, hitting as he does behind Kepler, Polanco, Cruz, Rosario, and Sano should lead to some RBI opps.


  11. 2 hours ago, lavaman said:

    This rook goes 0-3 today. 0-4 yesterday. 0-3 the day before that. 0-2 before that.

    Someone tell me why he's not drop-able right now?!  lol Seriously, any good reasoning out there, besides 'it's a small sample size'?

     

    If you're going to drop a player after 12 ABs then you have a bigger problem than that player's performance. 


  12. I agree with @tonycpsu on the HRs. It's never wise to bet on an increase in any stat that isn't backed up by historical numbers or swing change. I see McNeil as a 15-20 HR guy, and his AVG should fall from .330 as well, but it should be noted that he has a full season of ABs now (over 2 seasons) and is at .330. .300 seems like a low projection, a floor perhaps, and .315 a safe bet. 

    I have him in a 16 team league that counts lots of stats so he's much more valuable, as he would be in a points league. Standard 5x5 though, tony may be correct in having him right around 75. 

     


  13. 42 minutes ago, roscobangs said:

    This is guy is ridiculous. Where does he get drafted next year? 3rd round?

     

    Depends on the league settings. He's gonna end up with meager-ish counting stats, maybe 15 HR, 70 RBI, 90 R, 10 SB,  but with a .330 AVG that's a top 50 player in standard 5X5 leagues. 3rd round is picks 24-36 so maybe a bit early in a 12 team league. Deeper leagues and points leagues is a different story though. 

    • Like 2

  14. I'm getting a vintage Grady Sizemore vibe with less walks.  If he stays in the 2-spot between Lindor leading off and either Santana or hopefully JoRam, this could be a big 2nd half for him.  I think a final line of .275/.330 with 15-15 is reachable.

    • Like 2

  15. 2 hours ago, Ads7633 said:

    So, where do we rank him rest of season at 3B? 

    Top 5 3B ROS IMO. There's no 5x5 threat like him at the position. Arenado and Bregman will give him a good run, but JoRam seems back to form. He was a consensus top 5 pick overall this season and I see no reason why he won't play that way the rest of the season. 

    • Like 2

  16. 2 hours ago, Jyeatbvg said:

    Another ding dong tonight. I'm actually starting to value him as a consensus second rounder, can someone convince me otherwise? Entering his prime years, finding his power stroke, elite lineup, scarce position...only knock is lack of SBs but if the power is real I'm taking him ahead of Machado, Bryce, Altuve and other guys.

    I'm a huge Bogaerts fan but SS is not scarce. On the contrary, it is likely the deepest position this season and will be heading into next. I agree that I'd take him ahead of those you mentioned though and think a late 2nd round pick is merited due to his solid floor. 


  17. 2 hours ago, dicka24 said:

    I think the thumb must be bothering him still.  The key is whether or not it's something that can heal over the Allstar break, or if this is something that's simply going to linger till the offseason.  My hope is that it's the former and we get a monster second half from this guy, my gut tells me it's the latter and he's going to be underwhelming the rest of the way.

    This.  I fear at his age and with recurring injuries he won't be able to get healthy enough to produce at a viable level for most leagues.  He's not going to hit HRs or drive in a lot of runs, so it all comes down to making contact, running hard, and stealing bags.  A thumb injury impacts two of those three things and age doesn't help the third.  Bummer because I really like the way he plays and was rooting for him this year.

    As I look it over though, he's on pace for nearly 40 doubles and 100 runs with 20 bags to boot.  Those are solid numbers.  Get healthy Cain!


  18. I think selling high on Bell is smart.  He's come down after a bad June but is still a top 10 player, and I doubt he finishes the season that way.  Polanco is similar in that I like him a ton as a hitter but don't think his second half mirrors his first.  Jo Ram has all the peripherals in line but just can't seem to get the hits he needs.  He's still running and taking walks though so I think he can finish strong.  Votto is a complete gamble but my username should say it all.