En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. To quote Anchorman, "that doesn't make sense." It's just too blanket a statement. If your draft leaves you with a bunch of very solid, non injury prone, stable players, then yes gamble on the upside hard at the end of the draft. If, on the other hand, your draft leaves you with a bunch of high upside high risk type guys, then a KM may look real nice in the last round. Every draft pick is context-dependent and every strategy is only applicable in the right context. 1-dimensional veterans have their place in the game, as do young flash-in-the-pan guys, and everyone in between.
  2. I owned Marte last year because he fell to me at the right time in the draft, so I can say that--last season at least--he is streaky as all hell. Now I don't know how to see weekly splits, but the monthly splits tell you a lot. Examples: Mar/Apr he walked 14 times to 23 Ks. Those were almost half his walks for the entire season while he continued to K at that rate. 7 of his 20 HRs came in the month of July, where he hit a silly .341/.371. June was his worst month, he hit .194/.245 with 18 hits and 6 BBs. And yet, in those meager 24 times on base he stole 8 bases to 1 CS. So if I'm playing a roto 5X5 I may not discount him as it's the end stats that matter. But if I'm in H2H, and those are the leagues I play in, I may pass on Marte at #38 for Robles at #101, Pham at #63, or even Inciarte at #139.
  3. Love Maeda when he plays. It all comes down to how many starts he gets. The LA staff is deep and we have learned that there's no issue with dropping a guy to the pen whenever the moon is angled right. Lol note how there are four LA SPs on that list and none are named Kershaw. Still, at ADP 231 (ranked 190 in Yahoo), I think there's value to be had here.
  4. Devers is likely the 18th (!) 3B off the board, meaning that in very few leagues will he be the starting 3B on a team. He also happens to form the very clear beginning of a new tier after Myers and Profar in the 115s and Devers and Moose at 150. Personally, I'm not that interested in him as a bench bat so will likely have few shares of him this year. I'd rather have a guy who can slot in at multiple positions and gamble on upside later. I mean, if he doesn't break out and merely improves, you get .260, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 75 R, 8 SB. Sano can give you those numbers, without the handful of SBs, at pick 226. Seager is going at 241 and will give you that power but sap your AVG in the process. I'm just saying that you're paying for the breakout because a modest improvement on 2018 doesn't looking *that* good.
  5. Everything under the hood with Baez says that last season was likely his ceiling as a hitter. On the other hand, you can get Bregman or Machado for the same price, players whose ceilings likely haven't been reached yet. I love players like him in fantasy because they draw in managers who overpay, leaving good value to be had in the process.
  6. Keep an eye on where he hits in the lineup. RosterResource has him in the 7 hole which doesn't bode well for his counting stats, but if he can cut down on his Ks and increase his BB rate, perhaps like his teammate Nimmo, and should an injury befall Nimmo or Lowrie, he could end up at the top of the order and see his value dramatically improve. At this point, though, I like him only for a good source of mid-round SBs. I'd rather have Polanco, Hampson, or Simmons as my SS in standard leagues, and for cheaper draft prices too.
  7. I'm not sure I'd feel comfortable with Miggy as my primary 1B due to health concerns as well as the fact that I like some early 1B a lot, but as a UTIL I think he's gold. If he plays most of the season you're getting .300+/.370+ with a very solid amount of HRs and counting stats. I don't see that kind of upside out of anyone else in his ADP range (165 on NFBC and ranked 141 on Yahoo). Standard 5X5 I feel like you can make good arguments for passing him by, but if you play in an OBP or points league he's very much a guy to target.
  8. I like Jeimer but he is an AVG drain so you'll need to make up for it elsewhere or punt the cat. There's not much in his pedigree that says he can hit above .260 unless he gets his K% down below 20% like in the early minors (doubtful). That said, he's good for .240, 15-20 HR, 75 RBI, and 60 R, for whatever that's worth at the 3B spot. Wow, now that I look at that it looks a lot like Kendrys Morales, aka full breakfast, who can be had even later.
  9. I think there's a lot of value to be had with Abreu this year. He started MLB older than most at 27, so I think there's the idea that he's already past his prime when in fact he may have a lot more in the tank. His career averages are: 636 AB, .295/.353, 32 HR, 107 RBI, 87 R. Prior to this last season he was basically a model of consistency. He'll hit third in the CWS lineup and get all the ABs he can muster, so--barring injury--he should be a lock for .290/.350 - 25 - 100 - 80. The surrounding cast definitely hurts his run value, but they're really no worse this year than in the past so 80 is a fine minimum. He's current going at pick #86 in NFBC, and rank #50 in Yahoo. Aguilar, on the other hand, is going at #79 in NFBC and ranked #73 in Yahoo. I think Yahoo has it right here, as there's no way I draft Aguilar over Abreu in a redraft. In fact, pound for pound and removing Carp's multi-position eligibility, I bet Abreu out-performs Carpenter this season as well. I'd have him after Votto and before Carp in my rankings. Value to be had here for sure.
  10. I agree on Stroman, but you have left out one important Blue Jay who is the u.l.t.i.m.a.t.e. deep sleeper. So ultimate he is ultimately forgotten: Kendrys Morales (1B - TOR). Why Morales, you say? He's old, boring, and seems to be getting worse each year, you say? Why would I want a guy that is the equivalent of a full breakfast at a generic diner? Yawn, you say. But wait. I was reading this tweet on Max Kepler comparisons (guys who return similar value to Kepler) and lo-and-behold, Morales is there hiding at the bottom! This is not the first time I've seen Morales chilling in these comps, always at the bottom due to his low ADP. Then, while I was looking for that tweet again, I came across this article which says everything I was going to say so I'll just link to it. Basically, you can ink our boy in for .250 - 20+ HR - 80+ RBI - 65 R in a full season. Those numbers are admittedly not interesting but people actually pay money for guys who produce that, while you can get full breakfast for free, like in a hotel. Just saying.
  11. If Wendle could only play 2B then I'd say it's possible, but the Rays move guys around and Wendle's bat is too valuable to them to lose ABs.
  12. I'm all in on Wendle as he provides something almost no one else does: a .300 hitter with huge multi-position eligibility (2B, 3B, SS, OF). Having him as a bench player this season will prove invaluable as I read somewhere that the league schedule is more spread out this season, meaning that there will be a lot of days when your starters aren't playing. I see him for .300/.350 with ~10 HRs, 75 RBI, 90 R, 15 SB. He'll hit in the middle of a very well-built TB lineup and should get the counting stats as a result.
  13. Everything I've seen says Strahm will try for a rotation spot in spring, and I don't see much to stop him from getting it. I love the guy but am betting that he'll be a starter come opening day.
  14. Is this thread still happening? I vote we all put money (or signature bets) on this dude right now and close the thread. Dude is being drafted like he's the next Trea Turner and gonna go .275 - 20 - 75 - 90 - 40, so let's get real; my bets in parenthesis: .275 AVG (Under, maybe .260) 40 SBs (I've got under, but it's close) 20 HRs (Under, low teens.) 75 RBIs (Under, nobody on base in front.) 90 Runs (Under, nobody behind him.) .300 OBP (Under, this is such a gross stat for him.) I feel like he's gonna go .250/.290 - 12 - 50 - 70 - 30. But hell, I don't know and I've had a lot of wine. Either way, he's a polarizing guy and I love him because it means someone will draft him insanely early which means I get someone 1 pick closer than I would before. Looking at you Rendon. Looking at you.
  15. I'm all in on Bell at this price, especially in OBP and points leagues. He's going at #255 according to NFBC, right around names like Margot, Peter Alonso, Kepler, Happ, and so forth. As @Flyman75 notes, he's great off the bench but I also think he'll make a sneaky UTIL pick in a lot of leagues.
  16. *All ADPs via NFBC* Orlando Arcia (SS -MIL), ADP 382. Could produce Polanco/Simmons like numbers. Adam Frazier (2B/OF - PIT), ADP 344. Solid hitter who could go 15/15. Hernan Perez (IF/OF - MIL), ADP 390. Plays literally every position except 1B and C. Good guy to have on your deep bench. Pedro Strop (RP - ChC), ADP 314. Will likely open the year as the Cubs closer and who knows, he could stick with it. Omar Narvaez (C - SEA), ADP 328. I already wrote a post about him in the sleepers thread, but I like him a lot this year. Cedric Mullins (OF - BAL), ADP 335. Leading off and has a great tool set. Eduardo Nunez (IF/OF - BOS), ADP 407. Another swiss-army knife guy. Played injured a lot last season. Didi Gregorius (SS - NYY), ADP 368. Will miss first half of season, then will play regularly in a completely stacked lineup. Even deeper: Diego Castillo (SP/RP - TB), ADP 520. If you like slotting RPs into your SP slot for ratio boost, this is your guy. Chris Paddack (SP - SD), ADP 535. Has massive skills and will likely start for SD but on an innings limit. Dustin Pedroia (2B - BOS), ADP 569. Only in deep points leagues but whenever he's on the field he racks up the hits and walks with no Ks. Steven Duggar (OF - SFG), ADP 483. Will likely play full time and lead off for SF. Has a lot to work on but could return steals and runs. Kendrys Morales (UTIL - TOR), ADP 509. Somehow ends up showing well in every power hitting comp I've seen. He's just always there. Johnny Cueto (SP - SFG), ADP a million. May miss the whole year, but there's talk he could return in Sept. You know, fantasy baseball playoff time.
  17. I'm not an Anderson fan because he's not my type of hitter. His BB% is a paltry 5% in a good year, and he Ks at 25%. That tells me he likely won't get above .300 OBP, which means he likely won't hit anywhere near the top of the CWS lineup. This fact, in turn, means his ABs and counting stats will suffer, so he'll rely on generating a lot of his own value. So can he do that? Sure, to a degree. The guy has a lot of talent and is very quick. 20+ SBs is reasonable and 15+ HRs as well. It's the rest that concerns me. The CWS lineup simply does not get on base: 2018 team OBP of .302 (fifth worst in MLB). So I don't see him surpassing 75 RBIs or Rs. I also don't think he can hit above .260. Furthermore, he's being taken around #124, which seems like I'm paying a lot for a little. For comparison's sake, Hampson is going at #197, Polanco at #211, K Marte at #226. I think all three out-perform Anderson this year. I also like Simmons, Adames, and DeJong better this year.
  18. Well I'm not biased or anything but... let's start with credit where credit is due. Votto's played 12 seasons in the MLB, from age 23 to 34, and averaged: 572 AB: .311/.427, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 96 R, 8 SB, 38 2B, 114 BB, 122 K But we don't care about what happened, we care about what will happen. So looking closer to home, 2018 was a hard year for our boy. Let's note first that he hit the DL from a hit-by-pitch (thanks Madson) in August. The DL stint aside, he seemingly suffered across the board through the whole year, in particular what hurt was: 2018 AVG .284, career .311 2018 ISO .135, career .219 These fall backs took his counting stats with them, so he only had 67 RBIs and 67 runs. It is also valuable to note that most of his problems came in the second half of 2018 (side note: Winker was injured for the entire second half). Splits: 1st half 2018: 342 AB, .289/.422, 9 HR, 50 RBI, 55 R 2nd half 2018: 161 AB, .273/.408, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 12 R <----- GROSS Was it all bad? No. His BB% and K% were normal. His OBP was a silly .417 (in a down year!). But most importantly, what happened to the power??? Well if you're into advanced stats you can read this article on the topic, which concludes: nothing to see here folks! Votto's launch angle, barrels, avg distance, and xwOBA are all fine if not great. He actually had more hard contact and less soft contact than usual. What appears to be the issue is a fluky 9.5% HR/FB, a crazy half his career average of 18.3%. So what does 2019 hold? - Current NFBC ADP #75, making him the 6th 1B off the board after Goldy, FF, Rizzo, Bellinger, and Carp, but before Aguilar, Abreu, Muncy, etc. - Reds lineup is seriously improved. It's unclear exactly how the lineup will pan out, but Votto will almost assuredly hit third. He's surrounded by a very good group: Peraza, Gennett, Suarez, Puig, Schebler, and everyone's favorite Joey Votto impersonator, Jesse Winker. In other words, he'll have guys on base all around him. - We just saw that the underlying metrics for his "down" season are nothing to be worried about. So we have to assume that the AVG will bounce back to around .300 and the counting stats will come along for the ride. - The real question is whether you buy the argument that the power loss was a one year fluke, or if you believe that "he's getting old." If you are in the former camp, I think 20+ dongs is a very fair projection, but I don't see him hitting 30+ again. If you are in the latter camp, then we're not friends. Health assumed, I offer a **conservative** projection of: 550 AB, .290/.425, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R. I think that a more realistic projection is .300/.440, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R. He gets the bump in counting stats due to the supporting cast and because, In Votto we Trust.
  19. 2015 (452 AB): .272/.339, 1 HR, 35 RBI, 57 R, 19 SB (first full season in MLB at age 25) 2016 (547 AB): .294/.371, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 67 R, 17 SB 2017 (511 AB): .294/.373, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 85 R, 15 SB 2018 (605 AB): .253/.356, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 91 R, 19 SB Obviously 2018 seems like an odd departure from 2016 and 2017. One important note when looking at his 2018 season is that he played through an injury to his foot resulting from a foul ball. Here are his splits: 1st half: 359 AB, .270/.378, 8 HR, 31 RBI, 63 R, 14 SB (2 CS) 2nd half: 246 AB, .228/.324, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 28 R, 5 SB (4 CS) We can see that his first half, prior to the foot injury, closely resembles his previous two seasons. In fact, he matched the stats of the previous seasons in the first half of 2018. The second half saw his newfound power remain but all speed lost. So what does 2019 hold for Cesar? - Leading off for PHI with Segura, Cutch, Hoskins, and Williams/Franco/Herrera behind him. - Healthy. - Offers an impressive 10-13% BB% and a respectable 19-21% K%. And yet, the projections for him are relatively negative, I have eyeballed an average from over 7 sources: 2019 projections eyeball average: 550 AB, .265/.355, 11 HR, 53 RBI, 77 R, 15 SB This is reflected in his ADP; he's being drafted after Moncada, Dozier, Odor. NFBC ADP is currently #180 making him the 15th(!) 2B off the board. I think--if he stays healthy and continues to lead off--he should easily surpass those projections. I see him for: 600 AB, .285/.370, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 20+ SB FanGraphs Page BaseballReference Page
  20. Picks like Mondesi are far too dangerous this early. Everyone gambles with picks at some point in the draft, but logically speaking, gambling early creates excess risk with less comparative reward. Example: Team 1: Mondesi at #44 (gamble) and Quintana at #180 (safe) vs Team 2: Bogaerts at #48 (safe) and Reyes at #181 (gamble) If Mondesi comes through you don't gain *all* that much vs. Bogaerts, while if he fails you lose an insane amount of value. If Reyes comes through you don't gain *all* that much vs. Quintana, but if he fails you don't lose that much value. Both Mondesi and Reyes are gambles, but their comparative risk is enormously different, while their comparative reward is very similar.
  21. It's insane. I was looking up some stats for the above post and he walked 106 times in 2018 to.... 80 strikeouts. Ridiculous. For comparison, Trout walked 122 times to 124 Ks. Weird stat though, JoRam has been to the playoffs in 3 separate seasons, accumulating 87 ABs. In the postseason he's hit .195/.247 with 6 BBs to 18 Ks. Area for improvement found.
  22. RosterResource has JoRam hitting 3rd behind Lindor and Kipnis. Lindor will obviously be on base a lot and while Kipnis seems old, he's only 31, hits a good amount of doubles, and walks at a decent clip. There is some serious speed on the back end of that lineup too, so when the 8/9 spots get on there will be a lot RBI opps. Behind JoRam are Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers, not small bats. We know what we're getting from Santana, dude is like clockwork, but Bauers is a wildcard. If he can hit like his minor pedigree says (.270+) then its gold. If he stumbles again then JoRam may hurt a wee bit in the R department, but all told I don't see a legit hitter like JoRam suffering that much. He should get 100 RBIs and 90 Rs pretty easily.
  23. In his immediate NFBC ADP vicinity (46), I'd take Rendon every day. I also think Bogaerts is a less risky pick who may well match him in SB, while beating him in R, RBI, and AVG, losing only in HR and perhaps not by that much. But as I look over the ADP I see that Bellinger is in a tight tier as far as 1B goes. After Goldy/Freeman, Rizzo is going at 36, then Bellinger at 46, then no one until Carp at 71. Not sure what to make of this at the moment.
  24. .270 seems high but I see your comment about "if everything breaks right." Every projection I'm looking at has him around .255, which seems much safer. They all have him at around 25 HRs though, and I think you're right that he could see more there to go with excellent counting stats in that lineup. His ADP is #191 according to NFBC, which is good value. For comparison's sake, Mazara is going at #156 and looks like he may hit a similar .250 - 25 - 100 - 80 (and at a deeper position no less). Or take EE at #122. All told, I think DeJong is a great value this season, especially with his MI dual-eligibility.