En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. In his immediate NFBC ADP vicinity (46), I'd take Rendon every day. I also think Bogaerts is a less risky pick who may well match him in SB, while beating him in R, RBI, and AVG, losing only in HR and perhaps not by that much. But as I look over the ADP I see that Bellinger is in a tight tier as far as 1B goes. After Goldy/Freeman, Rizzo is going at 36, then Bellinger at 46, then no one until Carp at 71. Not sure what to make of this at the moment.
  2. .270 seems high but I see your comment about "if everything breaks right." Every projection I'm looking at has him around .255, which seems much safer. They all have him at around 25 HRs though, and I think you're right that he could see more there to go with excellent counting stats in that lineup. His ADP is #191 according to NFBC, which is good value. For comparison's sake, Mazara is going at #156 and looks like he may hit a similar .250 - 25 - 100 - 80 (and at a deeper position no less). Or take EE at #122. All told, I think DeJong is a great value this season, especially with his MI dual-eligibility.
  3. Danny Salazar is a guy I'll be keeping an eye on.
  4. One item of note for me here is how the difference between H2H and roto impacts this analysis. In roto it doesn't really matter if a guy has a couple hot streaks or consistently produces, the end result is the same. In H2H, on the other hand, this can be a free ride or a death sentence week by week (and depending on whether you have the guy on a tear or you're facing a team who has him). So Justin Upton/Carp/Bregman (streaky hitters) seem comparatively more valuable is roto than in H2H.
  5. I got 4! But man this doesn't look good when you're leadoff hitter is projected to accumulate 65 runs over 568 ABs.
  6. Useless for fantasy but easily one of the best representatives for the game. Love Ichiro and hope he stays in the MLB world (not necessarily as a player) for a long time.
  7. NFBC has him going at #194. I think that's too early given the serious playing time concerns. For reference, he's going ahead of Wendle, K Marte, LeMahieu, and a good 50 picks in front of another potential utility guy Jeff McNeil.
  8. Draft dependent strategies; by this I mean that I'll take whoever offers the best value at each pick, but in general I'll be: - RP: target one or two elite closers (this season I like Hand and Yates) and pair them with a guy like Alvarado and two ace mid-RPs (Betances, Pressly, etc). In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier closers who will hurt ratios, lose their jobs, and be stressful. Pair high end closers with high end mid-RPs. - SP: Target an ace SP and a second super consistent guy (Grienke, Mikolas, Kendricks, etc). Then wait and fill out SPs with later round sleepers. In other words, don't gamble with mid-tier SPs who will hurt ratios and are only being drafted for illusive wins (Gray, Stroman, etc). - 1B: Target early. This position looks weirdly shallow to me and I'd like to get an anchor in the first ~80 picks. - 2B and SS: These positions are insanely deep this year and I'll pass on Baez, Correa, etc for C Hernandez and J Polanco. Other later CI I like: Peraza, Simmons, Hampson, A Frazier, Wendle. - 3B: Looks deep this season so I'll likely pass on early guys and target Turner, Profar, Muncy, maybe Devers. - OF: I'm waiting on OF. Other than the early OF (first few rounds), I'm not super keen on the mid-tier OFs. So I'll wait and target guys like Winker, Markakis, Choo, Kepler, Meadows, Nimmo, Eaton. Draft independent strategies: - Draft Joey Votto. Because I want to win and he is made of winning. - Wait on catchers until the last couple rounds. This isn't really a new strategy but one that I've found is more rational than most. - If I don't end up with multi-position players, I'll target one "swiss-army knife" guy and keep a shallow hitting bench. Use most my bench for pitchers. - Be all over the WW. People make panicked decisions every year and I've found you can swoop on guys if you're keeping a close eye (last season I got F Vazquez early in the season while he was struggling and someone panic dropped him). - Be aggressive with trades. If my team has a hole that cannot be filled on the WW, I'm sending out trade offers. The upside to being aggressive with trades is that other managers will know you're willing to deal and may send you offers that aren't well thought through (in your favor). - Draft Joey Votto.
  9. There's a lot to like with Hicks: great walk rate, good K rate, decent ADP (118), hitting high in the order of a very powerful lineup. But I'm skeptical of a couple things that maybe some folks could address: - Low average upside (~.250) resulting from what? He seems to pull the ball too much (45% pull% in 2018), only 17.8% opp%. - 19% HR/FB rate in 2018 looks really unsustainable. - He showed a lot more speed and SB potential early in the minors, but in 2013 it looks like he pretty much stopped running. He took 13 bags in 2015 with the Twins, 3 in 2016, and 10 in 2017, and 11 last season. So I'm concerned he could put up a line more like .250/20/60/80/5 than .265/25/75/100/15. He's being drafted in an OF clump that contains Myers, Pollock, Brantley, Gordon, and Puig. At this moment I prefer a couple others over Hicks in that group.
  10. While I like Buttrey a whole lot more than Allen, I think the Angels are definitely in-it-to-win-it this season. They know their time with Trout is disappearing and that he represents their best shot at winning a title. I doubt they flip Allen unless Buttrey is mowing guys down and they expect Middleton to be back and healthy. Fantasy wise I want nothing to do with Allen. At all. According to NFBC he's being taken at pick #247, around the likes of Morrow, Hicks, Bradley, and Givens. In the region are Betances, D Robertson, Ottavio, and A Miller. I'd much rather have a lights-out mid-RP than a guy like Allen, Givens, or Bradley.
  11. Quick back of the napkin outlook: - Brandon Woodruff and Zach Davies stand between Burnes and a starting spot. Neither wow me in any real way. - RosterResource has Burnes in the pen. - Steamer has him for 13 games started with 74 IP. I think he starts in the pen and if an injury should befall a starter he'll move into the rotation. I like his upside though. Does he qualify at SP in fantasy leagues? If so, I'd consider him as a nice RP to slot into my SP spot for ratios and bonus Ks.
  12. I guess I see it from the other angle: if I play in a league full of managers who like to stream, I go for the opposite. So my team has two good starters (to meet the IP min) and 5 high-end RPs (not all closers but definitely 3-4), then slot two RPs in my SP spots and I'm good. I'll win SV-ERA-WHIP every week and the streamer will win W and K. That's a net loss for streaming.
  13. So in 2019 we're looking at about 8 catchers who will be drafted in the first 150 picks and then a giant pile of who cares. When it comes to C, you either aim for one of the top 8 or you wait. This post is for those who wait and thanks to @murraygd13 for reminding me about this dude a few posts back. Deep sleeper: Omar Narvaez (C - SEA) 1. Narvaez current ADP via NFBC is 341.61 and he's C25. So in a standard 12 team league he's being taken in round 28. So not at all. 2. He has a starting job in SEA and no real competition (David Freitas is the other SEA catcher). Keep in mind that SEA dealt their set-up guy Colome for Narvaez, so he's definitely going to get the chance for a full season of catcher ABs. 3. He will hit in the lower third of the order, but likely in the 7 spot and possibly even the 6 spot if he hits well enough. RosterResource says he'll have Domingo Santana, Seager, EE, Bruce, Haniger, and M Smith in front of him, and T Beckham and Gordon behind. Not great, but not terrible either. 4. In 634 MLB ABs, Narvaez holds a .274 AVG, .366 OBP, .379 SLG. He walks around 12% of the time and Ks around 18%. Other than the SLG, those are sexy numbers and are largely consistent with his minor league production. 5. He spreads the ball evenly: Pull/Cent/Opp 34/37/28, but he's not hitting very hard (or soft): Soft/Med/Hard 18/53/28. Steamer projection: 414 PA, .249/.332 - 7 HR - 39 RBI - 41 R - 2 SB BaseballReference proj: 391 PA, .268/.354 - 8 HR - 33 RBI - 38 R - 1 SB I think he gets those PA/ABs, but I fail to see the logic behind Steamer's AVG/OBP projection. I say he goes: .270/.360 - 7 HR - 45 RBI - 40 R. When you're gambling for a C you want a guy who won't hurt you and Narvaez is just that: a C that can hit for AVG. If you're in an OBP league or points league it's even better. Keep in mind that the bunch of catchers are all projected for a 7 - 40 - 40 line, but most hit .250 or lower. Narvaez is a sneaky play late in the draft.
  14. If he doesn't get dealt it looks like he'll lead off for NYM. That would put him in front of: Lowrie, Cano, Ramos, Conforto, and Rosario. I think if he remains in that spot he's got an easy shot at 100 runs with 15/15 and .250/.375.
  15. I play in a 16-team league with a fair amount of stats and I'm looking to target McNeil as a bench super-utility player, but only if these trades depress his ADP. He's currently at 226 according to NFBC, going right around Marwin, Senzel, K Marte, and LeMahieu. Obviously these spots will change, Astudillo is at 238, but I'd be more interested in other options at this price.
  16. Yeah but I figured we were discussing Anibal Sanchez so it was a pretty safe bet.
  17. Sorry, someone posted a link to a draft earlier and no one did. Must have been a different draft.
  18. Am I reading these results correctly and no one drafted Cesar Hernandez (2B - PHI)?
  19. - He hit .284 through six seasons in the minors and over 2k ABs. - He has averaged .252 through three MLB seasons. - "Good contact" is a result of his 83.5% Z-Contact% and 60.4% O-Contact%. - FanGraphs has him at .253, so even the lower projections are above .250. - Finally, you can do better than a "he didn't do that last year" argument.
  20. I'm a big fan of Arcia but only in deeper leagues. He'd fit nicely into a MI spot and may be of use as an injury-filler in 16-team leagues. The good: K% is low (below 25% and likely closer to 20%). Makes good contact and should hit above .250 with the possibility of .275. Has good speed and will likely steal 10+ bags. The power seems to be developing so he may hit 10+ HRs to go with a handful of counting stats. .260 - 10 - 60 - 50 - 10 is a safe bet for 2019. The bad: BB% has been low in the majors (below 7%) but he showed 10%+ patience in the minors. He'll hit in the bottom of the MIL lineup so not a lot of Rs for him this year, especially with the C spot and Spangenberg behind him. Never showed much power in the minors so he may never contribute in the HR/RBI cats.
  21. I think this is a big item for me. I'd be inclined to look at him in the 100-150 range for sure if he got his K% closer to 25%, which he very well may. Would you mind sharing your thoughts on Villar vs. a guy going nearly identical in drafts: Jose Peraza? I ask because Peraza is a guy I was targeting and Villar a guy I was avoiding, but I'm open to exploring another path.
  22. On Villar: Steamer has him for .250/.319 with 15 dongs and 30 bags, and some counting stats (65/55). Those look like Manuel Margot or Harrison Bader numbers but with more bags, something both of them are capable of matching in theory. I know neither of them are 2B but 2B isn't particularly shallow this year. If he gets full ABs I expect Hampson to readily outperform Villar. I think Ketel Marte will outperform Villar on an across-the-board basis (obviously not in SBs). Considering that (according to NFBC) you can get Cano and Murphy 25+ picks later, I think Villar is simply overpriced. You are paying heavy for those 30 bags, something that I don't believe is a wise fantasy strategy. My comp re: Nunez is to put him in context. He's a nobody as far as most fantasy managers are considered, but with a few small steps he could be quite relevant. Franco is relevant in deeper leagues and Nunez is basically him with a higher K%. Escobar is relevant in all leagues, and is basically a costly Franco (run the comp, it's weird), so Nunez is a guy who could very easily outperform his non-existent ADP and become fantasy relevant. I don't like paying for guys who are replaceable at a much cheaper price. Note that I'm not saying Nunez is Escobar, only that the distance between the two is not as big as it seems.
  23. Terrible teams are usually a great target for sleepers due to the aura of failure that surrounds them, but I'm not seeing a lot I want in BAL. Mullins is a guy I will keep an eye on and I'll likely end up with some shares, but he's already been covered by a couple outlets and writers. Mancini will likely produce 25-75-75-.260, boring but serviceable in deeper leagues. Villar is getting too much hype for my pocket book and I think he'll disappoint a lot of buyers at picks around or earlier than 100. Nunez is interesting to me. Looks like Maikel Franco with more Ks, or more like Eduardo Escobar. Upside here could be Eugenio Suarez. Love the dirt, dirt, dirt, cheap price there to. As in, non-existent. Stewart has a better eye than Nunez and therefore is more appealing to me; he also has more speed. Casually looking it over I could see him developing into a 15-15 player with serviceable ratios if he can get his BB% back up to the double digits and keep his K% near 20. Wynns... meh. C is such a dumpster fire I already have my targets and Wynns didn't really show much in the minors to make him a consideration. Susac as the raw skills and excellent plate discipline, but will he put it together? Both are likely holding the position warm for Sisco unless Susac finally breaks out. If Paul Fry can get his command under control he could put together a nice mid-RP season. Then you have Bundy and Cashner, both of whom have big upside but a lot to work through. Two cents given.
  24. Good points. I don't know who will be the "everyday" player at really any position in TB; what I do know is that Wendle will get his ABs over the course of the year. And this is one reason why I actually like TB: basically all of their players become multi-position eligible at some point because they get shuffled. So while Duffy is enormously underwhelming in a traditional 5X5, he does offer mild speed, decent average, and decent OBP and would serve as a rosterable deep MI in leagues that count hits (and he qualifies at 2B and 3B in Yahoo). Robertson may be the odd guy out with Diaz coming into the fold, but he got on base at a good clip and I imagine he'll get 450 ABs somehow. You mentioned their young staff is exciting and this is very true. When Honeywell returns we'll see how Chirinos and Yarbrough are throwing but I don't see why he can't unseat one of them. As to the division, I don't think TB has the staff to unseat CLE this season. CLE's starters are just brutal right now and TB needs a year or two and good development to get to that point. But hey, the arrow is pointing at least. More than we can say for my Giants, ugh.
  25. Last comment on Miggy from me as I don't want to underplay his injury concerns, but I also want to put them in context. In 2015 he hit the DL with a left calf strain (1st time he was on the DL in 13 years). He hit .338 that season with 18 bombs and 76 RBIs in 429 ABs. 2017 was bad for our boy due to ongoing back issues. First he hit the DL with a right groin strain. After the season he was diagnosed with 2 herniated discs, which he likely played through the whole season. He did not get off-season surgery for those discs. And unsurprisingly that was his worst season. 2018 he hit the DL with a right hamstring strain. Then he ruptured his left bicep and was done for the season. Of note is that he hit .299/.395 in 38 games. So his injury history is not extensive, but very recent and troubling for that reason. The calf strain, hamstring strain, and even bicep aren't that big a deal in the grand scheme of things as players get hurt, but the ruptured discs are definitely concerning. Those are the facts. Do with them what you will my friends.