En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. Indeed, and I think that's really what we mean when we call aces such. An ace is somebody that doesn't rely on extraneous factors to be good. Put them in nearly any park with nearly any team behind them and they will perform well. Obviously they will perform better with a great defense behind them and a cavernous park with distant porches, but those factors are not the primary ones in terms of their value. Even G Marquez, Severino, and Paxton are getting talk of true ace status in spite of these factors, and kudos to them.
  2. Kluber definitely showed better numbers at home last season: H: 118 IP - 2.14 ERA - 0.87 WHIP - 7.29 K/BB A: 97 IP - 3.80 ERA - 1.13 WHIP - 5.76 K/BB If we look at his career home/away splits they are similar in ERA but a bit more balanced in WHIP and K/BB. If he heads to a friendlier division with weaker opponents and a more pitcher-friendly ballpark that may help those numbers or it may show that he's more of a 3.50/1.15 kind of pitcher away from CLE. So at a cursory five-second glance I'd say his value wouldn't change much. Aces gonna ace, after all.
  3. You know what, let's get into this. Daniel Murphy is going at #150 according to NFBC, basically the same place as Miguel Cabrera. Murphy has not played a full season in two years and will be transitioning to a new position, 1B, conveniently the same position as our boy Miggy. Murphy is being hyped into oblivion with the COL trade and an optimistic projection of .320/.380 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, 100 R. That's basically his ceiling. Let's keep in mind that Murphy is 33 and has a lifetime average line of 601 AB: .299/.344 - 15 - 81 - 82 over ten seasons. That line is chump change compared to Miggy who is *cough* two years older (Nelson Cruz is 37 btw). So Murphy (age 33) with ceiling of .320/.380 - 20 - 100 - 100. Or Miggy (age 35) with floor of: .300/.390 - 30 - 100 - 100. Drafted in the same spot. Hate on Miggy's health all you want, you'll get no argument from me. The dude could go down in week 2 with a back injury, arm injury, hell, who knows? But so could Murphy. So could 35 year old EE being drafted at #119. It's really a moot point and is clearly reflected in his ADP.
  4. ***I*** was the one who talked about him getting close to 100 RBIs. And I stand by it, because as I said in my post it all comes down to health. When he's healthy Miguel Cabrera can't help but hit 30 dongs and 100 RBIs. It is literally painful for him not to do that. It hurts his soul because his soul is made of 30 HR 100 RBI 300 BA 400 OBP seasons. That is the content of Miggy's soul: badass baseball hitting. Now if he's not healthy there's no telling what can happen. And I acknowledged that as well, in fact I said: "Or you can take a gamble on health: if he's not healthy, you lose, if he is, you now have a top 30 player." It doesn't get more honest than that; he's either going to be healthy and produce like a boss or he isn't. You're saying you don't think he'll be healthy and that's totally fair, he may not. My ultimate point is that **if he's healthy** you can draft a potentially top 30 player at #157. There's literally no other upside pick like that in that range.
  5. All day. Miggy post-missing-most-a-season is exactly the type of guy I'm buying. Let's get sexy for a moment and look at Miggy's lifetime 162 game average over 16 seasons: 605 AB: 33 HR, 117 RBI, 99 R, 3 SB, .316 AVG, .395 OBP A little more sexy, the dude averages 40 2Bs, 78 BB, and 118 SO. Un-f-ing-real. I don't need to go through the caveats because everyone's already on them, that's why he's being drafted as a washed up piece of trash. NFBC has him at 157 right now, so about round 13. I think he can go 600 AB: 80 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .300/.390 and I think there's room for more counting stats and AVG there. No question about the risk, but the reward is way too high to pass up here. Closest 1B to him in ADP are Desmond and Hosmer. Think about that. Ian, watch me hit .220, and Eric, my ceiling is Miggy's floor. Or you can take a gamble on health: if he's not healthy, you lose, if he is, you now have a top 30 player. Or you can have Ian Desmond. Ian, lifetime .315 OBP Desmond.
  6. Fowler is definitely a guy to keep an eye on, but if you're looking for late, late speed you may want to look at his counterpart across the bay: Steven Duggar (OF - SF). Unlike Fowler, Duggar is firmly planted in CF and will likely lead off. Steamer projection comp for 2019: Fowler: 4.1% BB, 20.1% K, .261 AVG, .294 OBP Duggar: 8.7% BB, 28.4% K, .238 AVG, .307 OBP Steamer only has Fowler for 61 ABs compared to Duggar's 575 so it's not worth noting the counting stats. Point is that Duggar walks almost twice as much as Fowler and while he strikes out more as well, he did hit .260+ throughout the minors. Will that translate? Probably not, but if you want an easy 15 steals with plenty of room for more throughout the season, Duggar is a far better bet than Fowler, if only due to the roadblocks in front of the latter.
  7. Dude mashes. He will continue to mash and his ADP will be sweet because of his UTIL-only designation (current ADP ~123). I'm in.
  8. I love Robles but his ADP is a bit high for such unproven talent. NFBC has him at 97, before guys like Turner and Olsen, let alone similarly profiled hitters like Pollock, Hicks, and Brantley. 97 seems high to me for an unproven major league player hitting at the bottom of the order. I'm not saying Robles won't outperform all those guys, he may, but there's definite risk associated with the pick.
  9. I'm big on Mullins as a deep sleeper, but I don't think he'll be everyday-startable in most leagues. Even in my 16 team league I would only consider him as a bench OF. Definitely someone to keep a close eye on though, as he is in a spot to play everyday and has the hard skills to make it work.
  10. Are we on the verge of a Rays approach in SD? That is to say, have a f-ton of guys who can play a f-ton of positions and move them all around until you start winning? If so I, for one, welcome our new multi-position overlords.
  11. For real. There's a couple guys I'm eyeing and thinking, if I don't post anything then no one will know, just play it cool for... how many weeks?
  12. OF3? Ozuna's ADP is in the high-60s. That's round 5 in a 12 team league. So you're drafting three OFs in the first five rounds? I ask because I'd assume a guy like Ozuna will likely be OF1 for a lot of teams and we should expect that kind of consistent, anchor-like, performance. Solid, 25-100-.275 with room to grow.
  13. RosterResource has him leading off and looking over that lineup it's definitely the most logical choice. He can hit switch, walks around 7.5% and Ks around 16%, and has averaged a .329 OBP in his first five years in the league. If he does lead off he'll have Cron, Rosario, Cruz, Kepler, Schoop, and Sano behind him. Steamer has him for 607 AB: 72-14-68-14-.272/.332 Obviously that's conservative but I think that he's a good bet for 100 runs if he doesn't regress and holds onto the leadoff spot for the season. In fact, I think with the dong-club behind him he's a great sleeper pick.
  14. I am on board and ready to ride the Hampson hype-train into the 2019 season. My fear is that this train stalls early out the gate due to a seemingly cramped infield. Does anyone have any news on this front?
  15. Without a doubt, but don't slouch on Jon Miller. He and Dave Flemming have built quite a rapport over the years.
  16. Interesting call, thanks for the tip. I am skeptical of your claim that he has a solid batting approach though. In seven years in the minors he hit .288 once, .280 in his first year, and never topped out above .250 in the other five. At best he walks 10% of the time, but Ks 25%+. Those aren't terrible numbers but they do lend pause to the notion that he can hit .250+ in the majors. Have you looked into Colin Moran? PIT 3B, 26 years old, will hit for much better AVG than Wisdom with similar pop, no speed though.
  17. If it turns out that LA announces their starting rotation and Stripling is in the pen to start the year, there's a very good chance his ADP plummets. If you're like me and find it viable to use RPs in your SP slots when you don't have a starter going, Stripling could prove to be very valuable. You can get his relief stats and hold him for the inevitable injuries. Also, just food for thought: Stripling as RP: 109.1 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105 K
  18. Yeah I'm not going to lie, this trade puts a heavy cloud over Winker's outlook for this season. I simply can't see him getting full ABs this year with this crowded OF and am left wondering how viable a fantasy asset he is at this point.
  19. He is definitely that. Likely won't be drafted in any but the deepest of leagues, has a clear path to playing time, and has the muscle. What's not to like? Well he strikes out a lot which likely limits his AVG, but he walks at a decent clip which should help his OBP. Steamer has him at 514 AB: 22 HR, 70 RBI, 64 R, .235 AVG, .310 OBP I mean, those are basically Jorge Soler numbers. They're also a conservative baseline so he could see a handful more counting stats and a slight uptick in AVG/OBP.
  20. According to this ADP (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) Ohtani's going around pick #93. That would be in the 7th round for a 12-team league and seems reasonable. Also, just food for thought, Miguel Cabrera is going at #153 (12th round) and he's another UTIL-only player, at least to start the season. Personally, I'd rather have Miggy five rounds later... all you sacrifice are the SBs and a couple HRs but you gain AVG.
  21. Ohtani is in many ways the biggest draw for the club. Trout is the greatest player of our generation, but Ohtani was all over the media last season and I think that the club will get him on the field every chance they have. It's just $$$. So yes I think that, barring injuries, 500+ ABs is probable and hopefully he sees enough fielding to qualify beyond UTIL.
  22. Only eight MLB players had more than 30 SBs last season so I think it's a safe projection. There are also some playing time concerns with McMahon, and the likelihood that he'll start the season at the bottom of the lineup.
  23. Glad you made this thread as I was just thinking about this topic yesterday. C seems desperately thin. Tier one is Realmuto and Sanchez and both are going early around pick 60. Tier two is five deep from Perez to Grandal and spans pick 113-157. After that it's whatever strikes your fancy. So seven catchers will certainly be "paid for," meaning that half of most leagues will be cycling through the hot hand or chilling with a nice slice of mediocrity. 1B seems thin as well but in an odd sense. The top 8 guys are all showing ADPs of under 86 (Goldy/FF/Rizzo/Bellinger/Votto/Carp/Aguilar/Abreu). Then you see a large mass of serviceable 1B with a question mark or two (Muncy, Olson, Miggy, etc) and this continues for over 10 players until you get into another tier of guys who will likely serve as UTIL players for many teams (White, Bell, Alonso, Smoak). There could be good value had in that middle bunch. 2B looks pretty thick. People are going to fight over the top ten or so and as a result they are all showing ADPs under 120, but there is good value from top to bottom. Guys like Murphy, McNeil, C Hernandez, Wendle, hell even LeMahieu and Lowrie are all startable in certain contexts and are sitting after pick 150. 3B is thick as thieves. Looking at ADPs, if Carp is the #10 3B off the board at pick 76, then you've still got Muncy/Chapman/Shaw/Turner/Profar/Donaldson/Myers until the next tier. SS is the deepest it may have ever been. Like 3B, you see ten guys bunched (and all have ADPs under or around 50!), then five floating (Segura/Seager/Peraza/Anderson/Profar), then the rest (Rosario/Andrus/etc). Given that there are serviceable starters in the "rest," it's crazy deep over here. OF is an odd one this year, looking deep but in a weird way. Given that many of the multi-position guys are likely going to slide into MI and CI spots, the pool of true OFs gets smaller. If we leave the multi-eligibility guys out, there are very clear tiers. First tier holds about tens guys and ends early, around pick 30 with Benintendi/Soto. Then you get another tier of around ten players and ends around Pham/Ozuna/Cain at ADP ~65. There are about five guys floating after this before we run off the cliff. This isn't to say that there aren't serviceable OF after the top 25 (there are many!), but the drop off is significant and the pool after is huge. SP is crazy deep. There are 14 SPs going in the first 40 picks, which means that means almost every team in a 16 team league can field an ace. After the aces I see 15 or so SPs in tier 2 (from Corbin to Berrios) and we're still at ADP of around 80. Carlos Martinez is the 47th P off the board at pick 120, which means that theoretically in the first 10 rounds of a 12 team league, every team can have three very good SPs. Wow. RP is rocky. With the closer by committees last season and all the unknowns at this point, it's hard to say but it looks thin. Tier 1 is small (Diaz/Treinen/Kimbrel/Jansen) all going early before pick 75. Tier 2 is big (Vazquez, Osuna, Chapman, Hand, Iglesias, Doolittle, Yates, Hader, Leclerc, Giles) but runs tight from pick 80 to 120. That's a fourth of the picks made to closers in that latter third of the first 120 picks. Yikes. This tells me that managers are going to fight to get two good closers, meaning that you have to grab both before round ten in a standard league. --- Anyhow, that's what I see. It's weird to see SS be so deep and 1B having such a unique spread. OF looks like it may be a problem spot for many this year as people reach for IF and find themselves in that large mass of OF2-OF3 guys after the top 25. That said, there's a lot of good value to be had there, so maybe it's the right strategy going in? I'm not sure how I want to navigate this field yet, but it certainly looks interesting.