En Votto Veritas

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Everything posted by En Votto Veritas

  1. All day. Miggy post-missing-most-a-season is exactly the type of guy I'm buying. Let's get sexy for a moment and look at Miggy's lifetime 162 game average over 16 seasons: 605 AB: 33 HR, 117 RBI, 99 R, 3 SB, .316 AVG, .395 OBP A little more sexy, the dude averages 40 2Bs, 78 BB, and 118 SO. Un-f-ing-real. I don't need to go through the caveats because everyone's already on them, that's why he's being drafted as a washed up piece of trash. NFBC has him at 157 right now, so about round 13. I think he can go 600 AB: 80 R, 30 HR, 95 RBI, .300/.390 and I think there's room for more counting stats and AVG there. No question about the risk, but the reward is way too high to pass up here. Closest 1B to him in ADP are Desmond and Hosmer. Think about that. Ian, watch me hit .220, and Eric, my ceiling is Miggy's floor. Or you can take a gamble on health: if he's not healthy, you lose, if he is, you now have a top 30 player. Or you can have Ian Desmond. Ian, lifetime .315 OBP Desmond.
  2. Fowler is definitely a guy to keep an eye on, but if you're looking for late, late speed you may want to look at his counterpart across the bay: Steven Duggar (OF - SF). Unlike Fowler, Duggar is firmly planted in CF and will likely lead off. Steamer projection comp for 2019: Fowler: 4.1% BB, 20.1% K, .261 AVG, .294 OBP Duggar: 8.7% BB, 28.4% K, .238 AVG, .307 OBP Steamer only has Fowler for 61 ABs compared to Duggar's 575 so it's not worth noting the counting stats. Point is that Duggar walks almost twice as much as Fowler and while he strikes out more as well, he did hit .260+ throughout the minors. Will that translate? Probably not, but if you want an easy 15 steals with plenty of room for more throughout the season, Duggar is a far better bet than Fowler, if only due to the roadblocks in front of the latter.
  3. Dude mashes. He will continue to mash and his ADP will be sweet because of his UTIL-only designation (current ADP ~123). I'm in.
  4. I love Robles but his ADP is a bit high for such unproven talent. NFBC has him at 97, before guys like Turner and Olsen, let alone similarly profiled hitters like Pollock, Hicks, and Brantley. 97 seems high to me for an unproven major league player hitting at the bottom of the order. I'm not saying Robles won't outperform all those guys, he may, but there's definite risk associated with the pick.
  5. I'm big on Mullins as a deep sleeper, but I don't think he'll be everyday-startable in most leagues. Even in my 16 team league I would only consider him as a bench OF. Definitely someone to keep a close eye on though, as he is in a spot to play everyday and has the hard skills to make it work.
  6. Are we on the verge of a Rays approach in SD? That is to say, have a f-ton of guys who can play a f-ton of positions and move them all around until you start winning? If so I, for one, welcome our new multi-position overlords.
  7. For real. There's a couple guys I'm eyeing and thinking, if I don't post anything then no one will know, just play it cool for... how many weeks?
  8. OF3? Ozuna's ADP is in the high-60s. That's round 5 in a 12 team league. So you're drafting three OFs in the first five rounds? I ask because I'd assume a guy like Ozuna will likely be OF1 for a lot of teams and we should expect that kind of consistent, anchor-like, performance. Solid, 25-100-.275 with room to grow.
  9. RosterResource has him leading off and looking over that lineup it's definitely the most logical choice. He can hit switch, walks around 7.5% and Ks around 16%, and has averaged a .329 OBP in his first five years in the league. If he does lead off he'll have Cron, Rosario, Cruz, Kepler, Schoop, and Sano behind him. Steamer has him for 607 AB: 72-14-68-14-.272/.332 Obviously that's conservative but I think that he's a good bet for 100 runs if he doesn't regress and holds onto the leadoff spot for the season. In fact, I think with the dong-club behind him he's a great sleeper pick.
  10. I am on board and ready to ride the Hampson hype-train into the 2019 season. My fear is that this train stalls early out the gate due to a seemingly cramped infield. Does anyone have any news on this front?
  11. Without a doubt, but don't slouch on Jon Miller. He and Dave Flemming have built quite a rapport over the years.
  12. Interesting call, thanks for the tip. I am skeptical of your claim that he has a solid batting approach though. In seven years in the minors he hit .288 once, .280 in his first year, and never topped out above .250 in the other five. At best he walks 10% of the time, but Ks 25%+. Those aren't terrible numbers but they do lend pause to the notion that he can hit .250+ in the majors. Have you looked into Colin Moran? PIT 3B, 26 years old, will hit for much better AVG than Wisdom with similar pop, no speed though.
  13. If it turns out that LA announces their starting rotation and Stripling is in the pen to start the year, there's a very good chance his ADP plummets. If you're like me and find it viable to use RPs in your SP slots when you don't have a starter going, Stripling could prove to be very valuable. You can get his relief stats and hold him for the inevitable injuries. Also, just food for thought: Stripling as RP: 109.1 IP, 3.13 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 105 K
  14. Yeah I'm not going to lie, this trade puts a heavy cloud over Winker's outlook for this season. I simply can't see him getting full ABs this year with this crowded OF and am left wondering how viable a fantasy asset he is at this point.
  15. He is definitely that. Likely won't be drafted in any but the deepest of leagues, has a clear path to playing time, and has the muscle. What's not to like? Well he strikes out a lot which likely limits his AVG, but he walks at a decent clip which should help his OBP. Steamer has him at 514 AB: 22 HR, 70 RBI, 64 R, .235 AVG, .310 OBP I mean, those are basically Jorge Soler numbers. They're also a conservative baseline so he could see a handful more counting stats and a slight uptick in AVG/OBP.
  16. According to this ADP (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) Ohtani's going around pick #93. That would be in the 7th round for a 12-team league and seems reasonable. Also, just food for thought, Miguel Cabrera is going at #153 (12th round) and he's another UTIL-only player, at least to start the season. Personally, I'd rather have Miggy five rounds later... all you sacrifice are the SBs and a couple HRs but you gain AVG.
  17. Ohtani is in many ways the biggest draw for the club. Trout is the greatest player of our generation, but Ohtani was all over the media last season and I think that the club will get him on the field every chance they have. It's just $$$. So yes I think that, barring injuries, 500+ ABs is probable and hopefully he sees enough fielding to qualify beyond UTIL.
  18. Only eight MLB players had more than 30 SBs last season so I think it's a safe projection. There are also some playing time concerns with McMahon, and the likelihood that he'll start the season at the bottom of the lineup.
  19. Glad you made this thread as I was just thinking about this topic yesterday. C seems desperately thin. Tier one is Realmuto and Sanchez and both are going early around pick 60. Tier two is five deep from Perez to Grandal and spans pick 113-157. After that it's whatever strikes your fancy. So seven catchers will certainly be "paid for," meaning that half of most leagues will be cycling through the hot hand or chilling with a nice slice of mediocrity. 1B seems thin as well but in an odd sense. The top 8 guys are all showing ADPs of under 86 (Goldy/FF/Rizzo/Bellinger/Votto/Carp/Aguilar/Abreu). Then you see a large mass of serviceable 1B with a question mark or two (Muncy, Olson, Miggy, etc) and this continues for over 10 players until you get into another tier of guys who will likely serve as UTIL players for many teams (White, Bell, Alonso, Smoak). There could be good value had in that middle bunch. 2B looks pretty thick. People are going to fight over the top ten or so and as a result they are all showing ADPs under 120, but there is good value from top to bottom. Guys like Murphy, McNeil, C Hernandez, Wendle, hell even LeMahieu and Lowrie are all startable in certain contexts and are sitting after pick 150. 3B is thick as thieves. Looking at ADPs, if Carp is the #10 3B off the board at pick 76, then you've still got Muncy/Chapman/Shaw/Turner/Profar/Donaldson/Myers until the next tier. SS is the deepest it may have ever been. Like 3B, you see ten guys bunched (and all have ADPs under or around 50!), then five floating (Segura/Seager/Peraza/Anderson/Profar), then the rest (Rosario/Andrus/etc). Given that there are serviceable starters in the "rest," it's crazy deep over here. OF is an odd one this year, looking deep but in a weird way. Given that many of the multi-position guys are likely going to slide into MI and CI spots, the pool of true OFs gets smaller. If we leave the multi-eligibility guys out, there are very clear tiers. First tier holds about tens guys and ends early, around pick 30 with Benintendi/Soto. Then you get another tier of around ten players and ends around Pham/Ozuna/Cain at ADP ~65. There are about five guys floating after this before we run off the cliff. This isn't to say that there aren't serviceable OF after the top 25 (there are many!), but the drop off is significant and the pool after is huge. SP is crazy deep. There are 14 SPs going in the first 40 picks, which means that means almost every team in a 16 team league can field an ace. After the aces I see 15 or so SPs in tier 2 (from Corbin to Berrios) and we're still at ADP of around 80. Carlos Martinez is the 47th P off the board at pick 120, which means that theoretically in the first 10 rounds of a 12 team league, every team can have three very good SPs. Wow. RP is rocky. With the closer by committees last season and all the unknowns at this point, it's hard to say but it looks thin. Tier 1 is small (Diaz/Treinen/Kimbrel/Jansen) all going early before pick 75. Tier 2 is big (Vazquez, Osuna, Chapman, Hand, Iglesias, Doolittle, Yates, Hader, Leclerc, Giles) but runs tight from pick 80 to 120. That's a fourth of the picks made to closers in that latter third of the first 120 picks. Yikes. This tells me that managers are going to fight to get two good closers, meaning that you have to grab both before round ten in a standard league. --- Anyhow, that's what I see. It's weird to see SS be so deep and 1B having such a unique spread. OF looks like it may be a problem spot for many this year as people reach for IF and find themselves in that large mass of OF2-OF3 guys after the top 25. That said, there's a lot of good value to be had there, so maybe it's the right strategy going in? I'm not sure how I want to navigate this field yet, but it certainly looks interesting.
  20. My bad. This is an Altuve outlook thread and I figured that comparing him to the other top pick at his position would be relevant. Given that Baez is coming off an extreme breakout season and has seen his ADP skyrocket, while Altuve suffered an injury-marred season (which still ended up serviceable) and has seen his ADP fall, it makes sense to look at them together. Over eight years of MLB service, Altuve's 162 game average is: 649 AB, 93 R, 14 HR, 67 RBI, 36 SB, .316 AVG, .365 OBP. It's worth noting that his power didn't show up until his fifth year (2015), and seems to plateau out at just over 20 HRs. So if we take his average and account for the power uptick he's looking at: 100 R, 20 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB, .315+ AVG, .375+ OBP. That's all but injury-related money in the bank. Baez, on the other hand, has a shorter MLB history and less proven track record. His 162 game average is: 549 AB, 78 R, 25 HR, 83 RBI, 15 SB, .267 AVG, .309 OBP. I note first that he has 100 less avg ABs, so his counting stats will likely be higher. Let's give him 100 R, 30 HR, 100 RBI, 20 SB. Excellent numbers indeed, but then we look at the fact that he was caught stealing nearly 50% of the time last year. Then we look at the the pitiful OBP resulting from a freakishly bad K/BB (29/167). Then we note that these pitfalls are a part of his style as a player, not items he's looking to correct. So I think this may be a breakout but it may also be a fluke. He may post a more reasonable 90 R, 25 HR, 100 RBI, 15 SB, .270/.310. Those are solid numbers to be sure--especially in a standard non-OBP league--but nowhere near Altuve territory. The fact that I didn't do any of that in my post is noted.
  21. Given that their current and projected ADPs are similar, 2019 Altuve is gonna make 2019 Baez owners look really, really, really, really, stupid. Like, embarrassingly dumb.
  22. I'm not buying. K/BB rate is freaking atrocious. ADP is insane. Projections are based on a half season. This all spells huge mistake to me. I mean, in the NFBC ADP comp (https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp) he's going around Correa and Bogaerts. I guess SS is looking shallow to most?
  23. Well in my first year back after a five year break I won 2nd place in a 16 team redraft. Draft picks that paid off big: Morton at 211, Simmons at 206, Edwards Jr at 302, Castellanos at 115. Key FA pickups: Chapman, Nimmo, McNeil, W Smith, J Hicks. Trades I made: 4/10 - sent Allen and Pujols for Marwin and Peacock 5/12 - sent Goldy, T Anderson, Peacock for Altuve and Treinen 5/29 - sent Cespedes and Newcomb for Moustakas and C Anderson 6/26 - sent Moustakas and Moreland for Lindor and Healy So I basically dealt: Allen, Pujols, Goldy, T Anderson, Cespedes, Newcomb, and Moreland for Lindor, Altuve, Treinen, C Anderson, and Healy I feel pretty good about the season and I owe a lot of my success to this board. Thanks all!
  24. C: Mejia, Jansen, Astudillo 1B: Votto, Bell 2B: Altuve, McNeil, Wendle 3B: Donaldson, Turner, Myers SS: Correa, Profar OF: Pham, Pollock, Winker, Nimmo, Meadows RP: Knebel, Leclerc